2023: Where do we go from here?

[endaround]

1 hour ago, torts said:

In 2023 we're going to be raising a banner in April and having a ring ceremony

Well sure, to reflect the anniversary of the runner up ceremony of 1983 from the 1982 World Series loss

[Robocaller]

On 9/5/2022 at 5:51 PM, LouisEly said:

You're right, it's totally unrealistic to expect pitchers who are ages 27, 29, and 26 to repeat their performance.

I mean, the belief that we will or will not have dominant starting pitching in 2023 with Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, et al., determines what the team should do. And either side of that question is reasonable. I tend to think it's quite possible.

If you think they can dominate, Do a sorta, kinda, given our limitations. "all-in."  Since we have average-ish batters throughout the order, it's hard to significantly improve the team. I really want to improve 3b, but there simply aren't many ways to accomplish that (my wish is they sign Arenado, but that's not going to happen). If you think Mitchell, Ruiz, Frelick, Wiemer, and Turang can improve the team in 2023, you're probably being overly optimistic (and I want 3 of those guys on the opening day roster). A solid 7-8th inning reliever can usually be acquired cheaply (signing a FA is the cheapest way); do that, once or twice.

Ashby's (lack of) performance has really screwed us. We can't count on him to be a 1-3 starter. If we could, we could trade Woodruff or Burnes to improve 3B, 1B or RF/DH. And there's no one in the minors showing much promise of contributing as a starting pitcher next year. Gasser might be a call-up. I'd trade Small to the first team that valued him more than me.

So if you don't believe we can have starting pitching dominate in 2023, you trade Woodruff and Burnes this offseason. And you concentrate on acquiring guys who can play 2023-2028, on the belief that our current top prospects can form the nucleus of an excellent team.

Simple. You just need to decide if you believe in the starting pitchers we have.

 

 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

I mean, the belief that we will or will not have dominant starting pitching in 2023 with Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, et al., determines what the team should do. And either side of that question is reasonable. I tend to think it's quite possible.

I think it's more than reasonable to expect them to return to dominance. Hell, they've been pretty dominant this year...there's just been a few hiccups with DL stints, 

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

Ashby's (lack of) performance has really screwed us. We can't count on him to be a 1-3 starter. If we could, we could trade Woodruff or Burnes to improve 3B, 1B or RF/DH. And there's no one in the minors showing much promise of contributing as a starting pitcher next year. Gasser might be a call-up. I'd trade Small to the first team that valued him more than me.

I half agree with this. Ashby is SO close to dominating. His at his worse in 0-2 counts and on the first pitch of the AB. A guy with his stuff, I have trouble believing he's not going to be able to figure that out. He's young and developing, but his stuff is electric.

With regard to Small, I have little doubt he's going to be a very solid, very effective inning eater who can be a #4/#5, MAYBE a #3. It's more of a matter of time with him. He's not overpowering so he nibbles and then gives in. But when HE'LL figure it out...who knows. Rich Hill was a good comp for him, right? I think that still holds true. It took him 3 years. Maybe Small will click next year, maybe not. I wouldn't give him away, but it's also not exactly like Burnes in 2019 where he was dominant and he just kinda lost it. I'd trade him if you could get good value for him. 

 

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

Simple. You just need to decide if you believe in the starting pitchers we have.

I don't think anyone in Baseball doesn't believe in the starting pitchers we have. I think it's even simpler than that. Do you believe that Adames can perform closer to how he did with the Brewers in '21 than '22, can Urias bounce back. Again, those two have had very unlucky BABIP. 

How much confidence do you have in Frelick, Mitchell, Turang...maybe Wiemer? Can they be more than just adequate replacement level players or do they actually believe there is a ROY candidate and some immediate impact players in there? It's not asking a lot to be able to upgrade over CF/2B from this past year. 

But I don't think the pitching staff is really a question(well, the rotation anyway). 

 

But even that "sorta all in," you're speaking of, it's not just about trading away the resources we've got or some of them...it's the players we're going to lose for nothing. 

I think the Brewers make Burnes and Woodruff available and if you can get a package from a team like the Dodgers for 2 pitchers like Miller, Stone and then a couple position players like Vargas and Busch...I think you take it and perhaps you attempt to extend Woodruff...unlikely as it may be.

It's really a coin flip for me. This is a team that was a couple late inning HRs away from a World Series appearance when our ace was Chacin/Miley and we started Dan Jennings for an out and it's a team that looked like they were going to win 100+ games last year with...VERY poor offense until coasting to the finish line.   

 

What they do with Burnes and Woodruff could either set the Brewers up for the next decade or it could set us up for a short two year period and then a reset. I want to win, but I wouldn't want to make that call, but personally...I think I prefer the way TB and Cleveland have gone about their business, but what fan wants to punt with two TOR power arms and two years left?

[trwi7]

9 hours ago, torts said:

In 2023 we're going to be raising a banner in April and having a ring ceremony

Pretty realistic considering the way we celebrate the 82 team.  Might as well go all out and raise a banner and get some rings for a non-playoff team.

[Never Outhustled]

Sure, there will be Brewers that bounce back next year. Also, there will be players who have a down year. 

What we need is better players. 

[monty57]

4 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

Sure, there will be Brewers that bounce back next year. Also, there will be players who have a down year. 

What we need is better players. 

What is the big personnel difference between the 2021 team and the 2022 team? We lost Avi and JBJ, but gained Renfroe. We had Tellez and Adames from opening day. 

Either the last few seasons were smoke and mirrors, or we simply underperformed this year. I choose to believe that we have a lot of talent on this team, but we're finding ways to lose ball games. 

If that is correct, then we should be better record-wise than we are, and I think that's a realistic assumption. If you keep putting talented teams on the field, you will win more often than you lose. You will occasionally have a down year, because baseball is baseball, but more often than not, you'll win.

Whether we turn things around in time to sneak into the playoffs this year or not, management has to stick with the strategy that has brought them more success than at any other time in Brewer history. With the current make-up of the roster (talent and team control), I think they have the ability to remain competitive for a long time, but what they do with their "short term guys," notably Burnes, Woodruff and Adames will be very important to the franchise. Either letting them walk as free agents or making a bad trade could hurt, so whatever direction they head is exciting but scary.

[igor67]

If nothing else looking at Avi and JBJ's lines should give us some relief at the moves we did make or this team is almost certainly under .500 for the year.

[Robocaller]

13 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I think it's more than reasonable to expect them to return to dominance. Hell, they've been pretty dominant this year...there's just been a few hiccups with DL stints, 

EVERY ONE of our starting pitchers is worse this year than last. As a group they are NOT dominate at all. 

I wasn't saying Ashby couldn't become a top of the rotation pitcher, all I was saying is that he did nothing to suggest that this year. Guys with great stuff and bad command are failures all the time.

Small and Burnes are not comparable at all. Small tops out at 91 and Burnes tops out at 98+ mph. Small needs to improve mightily to get to Lauer's level (which I don't think he ever will).

14 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I don't think anyone in Baseball doesn't believe in the starting pitchers we have.

they should; they declined this year to being an average-ish rotation. there is NO guarantee they'll all bounce back to 2021 levels. I'd bet that not more than one (of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer and Houser) gets back to his previous best. The brewers starting pitchers are 13th in the league in ERA, 14th in WHP.  That is not a rotation you can build a WS contender on, because there's no way we magically become a top 3 offense next season.

Man, this is making me think that a sell off is a good idea, which is not where I was when I first entered this thread.

 

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

EVERY ONE of our starting pitchers is worse this year than last. As a group they are NOT dominate at all. 

I wasn't saying Ashby couldn't become a top of the rotation pitcher, all I was saying is that he did nothing to suggest that this year. Guys with great stuff and bad command are failures all the time.

Small and Burnes are not comparable at all. Small tops out at 91 and Burnes tops out at 98+ mph. Small needs to improve mightily to get to Lauer's level (which I don't think he ever will).

they should; they declined this year to being an average-ish rotation. there is NO guarantee they'll all bounce back to 2021 levels. I'd bet that not more than one (of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer and Houser) gets back to his previous best. The brewers starting pitchers are 13th in the league in ERA, 14th in WHP.  That is not a rotation you can build a WS contender on, because there's no way we magically become a top 3 offense next season.

Man, this is making me think that a sell off is a good idea, which is not where I was when I first entered this thread.

 

The rotation stats are inflated due to Peralta and Woodruff being injured for significant portions of the season and guys like Alexander, Gonzales, Small, etc. getting innings. When healthy and on their games, Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta is one of the best trios of starters in baseball. And Ashby has as much potential as anyone save for maybe Burnes. With all of these guys being in their 20s, why wouldn't you bet on a performance more in line with 2021? 

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, monty57 said:

What is the big personnel difference between the 2021 team and the 2022 team?

The 2021 Brewers scored 738 Runs and allowed 623.

Through 136 games the 2022 Brewers have scored 613 runs, and allowed 592. (It is 7-1 Colorado in game 136 as this is posted).

Simply stated, the big difference is their hitting and pitching are both much worse than they were in 2021. Even if offense being down across the league may somewhat explain the huge drop in runs scored, it further illustrates how poorly their pitching has been in 2022, not to mention everyone on the team is another year older. 

Succinctly, the Brewers don't have a regular player on offense where you can look and say "player X is definitely going to find another gear and play substantially better in 2023".

Renfroe is having a career year in '22. Keston Hiura (.244/.336/.482) has marginally outpaced his  career mark of .242/.322/.460.   Tellez, Wong, Adames, Urias and Caratini are at or near their career averages in terms of OBP and SLG.  Yelich is exactly at his career norms post 2019, and has over 1000 ABs to suggest his MVP days are in the rear view mirror. 

Moreover, Jace Peterson, one of their more consistent offensive performers, is heading into free agency. Nor, do the Brewers seemingly have a Ryan Braun type of prospect who they can plug directly into the middle of the order of the major league team and not miss a beat. 

Least mentioned, the bullpen has been leaky all year outside of Williams and Hader; and their bullpen options are now mostly aging veterans who cannot truly be expected to perform substantially better in 2023: Boxberger (34) Matt Bush (37), Milner (32), Suter (33), Trevor Gott (30), Justin Topa (31) etc. Taylor Rogers is 32 an an impending free agent. 

Maybe their rotation all pitch lights out next year and manage to stay healthy, but the ratio of pitchers who suffer an arm injuries in MLB certainly suggests its not a given. 

[Robocaller]

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The rotation stats are inflated due to Peralta and Woodruff being injured for significant portions of the season and guys like Alexander, Gonzales, Small, etc. getting innings. When healthy and on their games, Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta is one of the best trios of starters in baseball. And Ashby has as much potential as anyone save for maybe Burnes. With all of these guys being in their 20s, why wouldn't you bet on a performance more in line with 2021? 

Not this year. And there's no guarantee they'll all be healthy going forward. My expectation is a few of them will improve, but not necessarily all the way back to 2021 effectiveness.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, Robocaller said:

Not this year. And there's no guarantee they'll all be healthy going forward. My expectation is a few of them will improve, but not necessarily all the way back to 2021 effectiveness.

Actually, the performances of Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta, this year still place them as one of the better trios of starting pitchers in the game. 

[Robocaller]

30 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The rotation stats are inflated due to Peralta and Woodruff being injured for significant portions of the season and guys like Alexander, Gonzales, Small, etc. getting innings. When healthy and on their games, Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta is one of the best trios of starters in baseball. And Ashby has as much potential as anyone save for maybe Burnes. With all of these guys being in their 20s, why wouldn't you bet on a performance more in line with 2021? 

Burnes is 17th in ERA out of 50 qualified pitchers in the league. So. . .average #1 pitcher

Woodruff, Peralta and Lauer all pitched like decent #2 or #3 pitchers.

That's fine if you offense is in the top 4, but that's not going to happen.

Last year we had three aces (Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta) and a guy who would be a solid #2 on most teams--Lauer. And House was effective and Anderson more effective than Ashby, etc. that we've been throwing out there.

So yeah, our pitching is fine if our offense was excellent, but right now it's not effective enough to make us even a playoff team.

 

[NBBrewFan]

There's a difference in what you expect/hope for and what you build a roster around.  Expecting 100% percentile performance from a chunk of your rotation is fine, but you will be sorely disappointed if they only make 90% and your plan only succeeds if they get to 100%.  Plan for 90% and if you get more then great, less than make some changes at the trade deadline.  I'm not arguing they can't be as effective in 2023 as they were in 2021, but you should be adding offense and looking for better middle relief as if you will get something in between 2021 & 2022.

[Never Outhustled]

5 hours ago, monty57 said:

 

Either the last few seasons were smoke and mirrors, or we simply underperformed this year. I choose to believe that we have a lot of talent on this team, but we're finding ways to lose ball games. 

 

The last few seasons? They went 39-41 in 2020. They'll finish with around 81-84 wins this year. If we think there was an outlier, it was last year. 

They'll need to add good players to both win and draw fans next season. 

[Samurai Bucky]

This may sound weird, but this is better than being a Brewers fan from '83 - '07, or a Badgers football fan from '62 - '80, or a Badgers Basketball fan from like '47 - '93, or a Packers fan from '73 - '92 (except for '82, of course).  We can throw the Bucks in there, too.

Completely blowing up what the Brewers have, IMHO, is not the answer.  Quality starting pitching is the biggest chip a team can use to wager.  Even if the Brewers get "good young arms", it will take a while for them to develop if they even work out at all (ref. Florida Marlins).

As much as we get frustrated at the "bite of the apple" approach, Milwaukee fans (and other Wisconsin Sports Fans) recall not even seeing the orchard... for... a... long... time.  Even so, I am excited that the fan base is not satisfied just making the playoffs.  I 100% agree.

I still trust Stearns.  He has put teams together that have made it to the playoffs for the past four years.  Crazy.  Yes, one of them was with a losing record, but they still made it (don't mention Covid, Samurai... ?).

Get some guys who can put the ball in play, and get a bullpen.  I'm fine trading one of the big three starters and maybe some of the other inconsistent starters that I hear are really not inconsistent.

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Small and Burnes are not comparable at all. Small tops out at 91 and Burnes tops out at 98+ mph. Small needs to improve mightily to get to Lauer's level (which I don't think he ever will).

Riiight. Which is why I never compared the two. In fact...I compared Small to Rich Hill. I did the exact opposite.

And I obviously prefer guys with more velocity. That doesn't mean a pitcher who throws 91-93(doesn't top out at 91, but that seems kinda beside the point) with 3 solid pitches won't be a valuable starter. I said I'd trade him for good value, but I wouldn't just give him away.

I don't know how that got conflated with him being similar to Corbin Burnes.

Quote

EVERY ONE of our starting pitchers is worse this year than last. As a group they are NOT dominate at all. 

No...they've had some trips to the DL and have had to have lesser pitchers fill in. They've STILL got two legitimate aces, two legitimate #2-3 starters, Ashby who's very close to becoming an elite pitcher.

 

6 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Not this year. And there's no guarantee they'll all be healthy going forward. My expectation is a few of them will improve, but not necessarily all the way back to 2021 effectiveness.

And we'll likely have a couple pitchers who will exceed their 2021 counterparts. The most likely being the pitcher who is already on the precipice in Ashby. Maybe Gasser later in next year could.

Do people forget this was a team on pace to win over 100 games before easing up at the end of the season despite having a terrible offense?

 

This team isn't playing well. It's not a secret. It'd place Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Eric Lauer...VERY low down on the list of reasons why they aren't or won't next year...even if they didn't exactly replicate 2021s performance. 

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

The last few seasons? They went 39-41 in 2020. They'll finish with around 81-84 wins this year. If we think there was an outlier, it was last year. 

They'll need to add good players to both win and draw fans next season. 

And they won 96 and 89 games the prior two seasons and they're STILL on pace to win well over 81 games. 

So full seasons, 96, 89, 95...

They'll need to WIN game to draw fans. Adding players average fans recognize is the worst possible way to build a team. 

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

No...they've had some trips to the DL and have had to have lesser pitchers fill in. They've STILL got two legitimate aces, two legitimate #2-3 starters, Ashby who's very close to becoming an elite pitcher.

 

I'll only respond to this, although I disagree with everything you wrote in this post.
THIS YEAR, Burnes is pitching like an average #1 starter. Lauer, Peralta and Woodruff are solid (not great) #2-3. I'd agree that is perfectly fine IFF we had a top 4 offense. We don't.
Ashby is smoke in the wind; you can't count on him for anything. He could make a leap next year, or he could be bouncing back and forth to Nashville. You can't wave a magic wand and get the command he needs.

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I'll only respond to this, although I disagree with everything you wrote in this post.
THIS YEAR, Burnes is pitching like an average #1 starter. Lauer, Peralta and Woodruff are solid (not great) #2-3. I'd agree that is perfectly fine IFF we had a top 4 offense. We don't.
Ashby is smoke in the wind; you can't count on him for anything. He could make a leap next year, or he could be bouncing back and forth to Nashville. You can't wave a magic wand and get the command he needs.

Ok....well, whatever. 

Can I ask how exactly we're arriving at this arbitrary "top 4" offense?
 

The year they were 1 win away from the World Series, they're top pitchers were Chacin and 16 starts from Wade Miley. 

Offense was 12th in runs scored that season.
Offense is 9th in runs scored this season. 

[Never Outhustled]

8 hours ago, UpandIn said:

And they won 96 and 89 games the prior two seasons and they're STILL on pace to win well over 81 games. 

So full seasons, 96, 89, 95...

They'll need to WIN game to draw fans. Adding players average fans recognize is the worst possible way to build a team. 

Who cares what they win in 18 and 19, this is a completely different roster. There on pace to win 84 games, but they've been a losing team for months, hence why I projected 81-84 wins.

[UpandIn]

17 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

Who cares what they win in 18 and 19, this is a completely different roster. There on pace to win 84 games, but they've been a losing team for months, hence why I projected 81-84 wins.

You apparently did;

Quote

Either the last few seasons were smoke and mirrors, or we simply underperformed this year. I choose to believe that we have a lot of talent on this team, but we're finding ways to lose ball games. 

Your response;

Quote

The last few seasons? They went 39-41 in 2020. They'll finish with around 81-84 wins this year. If we think there was an outlier, it was last year. 

So yes...the last "few seasons," as in in the last 4, they've won 95 twice and 89 a 3rd and then had a Covid shortened season. 

[JohnBriggs12]

Really when the manager starts looking to replace even his elite starters in the 6th inning, you don't truly get the benefit of truly elite starters.  Seven innings has to be a given for All Star caliber starters.  They should average that per start.  Woodruff is averaging a measly 5.5 innings per start.  That's Chase Anderson territory.  Peralta is averaging under 5.  Sure Burnes is right around 6, but that's less than Miles Mikolas.  You can somewhat understand it when pitchers hit as this Brewer team has an aversion to scoring early but now there's no need to pinch hit for pitchers.  You don't just lift a starter if he's down say 3-1 after six innings and 95 pitches.  That's a winnable game.  Stamina is a hallmark of an elite pitcher as much as ERA.  If these guys don't have it, they need to work harder at building it.  Brewers don't need these guys to be good at age 33 or 34.  They'll be long gone by then.  Get as much out of them while you have them.

 

 

 

[monty57]

17 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

The 2021 Brewers scored 738 Runs and allowed 623.

Through 136 games the 2022 Brewers have scored 613 runs, and allowed 592. (It is 7-1 Colorado in game 136 as this is posted).

Simply stated, the big difference is their hitting and pitching are both much worse than they were in 2021. Even if offense being down across the league may somewhat explain the huge drop in runs scored, it further illustrates how poorly their pitching has been in 2022, not to mention everyone on the team is another year older. 

Succinctly, the Brewers don't have a regular player on offense where you can look and say "player X is definitely going to find another gear and play substantially better in 2023".

Renfroe is having a career year in '22. Keston Hiura (.244/.336/.482) has marginally outpaced his  career mark of .242/.322/.460.   Tellez, Wong, Adames, Urias and Caratini are at or near their career averages in terms of OBP and SLG.  Yelich is exactly at his career norms post 2019, and has over 1000 ABs to suggest his MVP days are in the rear view mirror. 

Moreover, Jace Peterson, one of their more consistent offensive performers, is heading into free agency. Nor, do the Brewers seemingly have a Ryan Braun type of prospect who they can plug directly into the middle of the order of the major league team and not miss a beat. 

Least mentioned, the bullpen has been leaky all year outside of Williams and Hader; and their bullpen options are now mostly aging veterans who cannot truly be expected to perform substantially better in 2023: Boxberger (34) Matt Bush (37), Milner (32), Suter (33), Trevor Gott (30), Justin Topa (31) etc. Taylor Rogers is 32 an an impending free agent. 

Maybe their rotation all pitch lights out next year and manage to stay healthy, but the ratio of pitchers who suffer an arm injuries in MLB certainly suggests its not a given. 

In the post you quoted, I simply asked what the personnel differences are between this year and last year. With essentially the same roster, we won 95 games in 2021 and are on pace to win 85 games this year. The team obviously hasn't played as well this year, but the thoughts around this board and other places that there is no talent seem unfounded.

We still have a month or so to go, but from a team that will have a 2-year average of somewhere around 90 wins/season, we will be losing career journeyman Jace Peterson who has had a good year in his age 32 season, Omar Narvaez, who has had a down year, Andrew McCutchen, who has posted 0.3 WAR, Rogers, who was a mid-season pick-up and has -0.3 WAR, and Rosenthal who hasn't played. That's not really an insurmountable amount of talent walking out the door.

I expect some trades and free agent signings, but we have a decent base from which to build. While there are many moves that could be made, there are basically three generic strategies:

1) Hold everyone and "go for it." After a somewhat disappointing season, and a lethargic team going on the field every night, I don't think this will happen.

2) Trade some guys, notably some of the "stars" that are getting closer to free agency. I think this is the route we'll take, with some of the talent coming back helping right away, and some of it a little lower in the minors.

3) Go into rebuild. Trade away all the arby guys and get as much "prospect capital" back as possible. While I get the argument for this, I don't think we're at this point as a franchise, and I definitely don't think Attanasio is at this point as an owner.

People keep saying "we don't have a player I would absolutely want back," but I think we're built to not have any holes. Pretty much everyone in the starting roster is average-to-above-average, with the "good-to-great" talent residing on the pitching side. Everyone would like to have more "good-to-great" players. There is not an owner, GM, manager, or fan that has ever lived who didn't want more "good-to-great" players on their team. It's obtaining them while still keeping a solid team around them that is tough.

We have had some teams in the past who had more "good-to-great" players, surrounded by a bunch of below average guys, and we didn't have the success we've had recently. The Angels are today's example of why that doesn't work. Our "couple stars and average-to-above-average everywhere else" strategy has given us the most successful period in Brewers history, and I don't believe it's over. Give Stearns another $100M to work with every year, and we'll have more stars, but for the market we're in, I say stick with what's working.

[NBBrewFan]

18 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Stamina is a hallmark of an elite pitcher as much as ERA.  If these guys don't have it, they need to work harder at building it.  Brewers don't need these guys to be good at age 33 or 34.  They'll be long gone by then.  Get as much out of them while you have them

I don't think it's a stamina issue.  They are committed to reducing the number of times a pitcher goes through the order without regard to whether the drop in effectiveness of those elite starters the third time through the order is likely better than the effectiveness of an average relief pitcher.  Third time through the order and they are looking to yank the starter as soon as possible.  No matter how well they are doing.  It's not the pitchers, it's the team philosophy.