2023: Where do we go from here?

[monty57]

3 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

The problem is we've already about ded the strategy that produced the good teams in 18-19. Those teams including a blossoming Yelich acquired in a huge prospect for established player trade. We haven't made a deal like that again. It also included a major free agent signing in Grandal. That's another avenue we now ignore. 

Now we're stuck with a mediocre team, while this thread suggests we deal our best players instead of adding to the team. 

I don't think the thread suggests anything. It's asking what people think would be the best strategy going forward. If you think that packaging our prospects in a Yelich-type deal is the best option, I'd love to hear who you think that player might be. We could use some upgrades, and that may be the route the team takes.

I personally think our best option is to trade off one of Burnes/Woodruff this off-season, but that's just my opinion, it's not the mandate of the thread.

My opinion stems from the group of guys we currently have in their arby years. I don't want to see us hold onto the star players until free agency, because I think the value we would receive in trade far outweighs the value we'll get from another season or two with the player. Again, that's just my opinion. I like hearing what other people think, especially when that opinion differs from mine. That's how I learn.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

 

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[igor67]

I'm definitely a keep getting bites at the apple believer. Having already dealt Hader there is a little less pressure in my mind on having all these really good pitchers going away at the same time, but it is still there and It makes sense to explore strongly a big offseason deal while you don't have the immediate pressure and see what the return looks like. If there hadn't been such development on the farm this year I'd have been more concerned, but we have a lot of internal options for plausibly believing we can improve the team, so it is easier to take that step back and think about overall value and explore. That premium stearns put on roster flexibility helps a ton in that regard.

[Jopal78]

8 hours ago, Robocaller said:

owner = budget. That's the importance of an owner. If they are getting involved in baseball operations, it's a negative.

 

Not really. Market=budget.  Today's owners are mostly billionaire financiers, they're not pouring their own fortune into operating expenses, nor are they likely in it for annual income. 

 

8 hours ago, Robocaller said:

We might have been able to extend Burnes and/or Woodruff if we weren't saddled with Yelich's contract. Have the OF filled with new guys (mostly) and bring in Turang and Feliciano, and save a ton of money on batters. But . . . Yelich is the albatross we bear.

 

This isn't true either. If Burnes or Woodruff were interested in an extension it would have happened already. 

In order to sign them now to contract extension the Brewers would have to offer them market rates. In terms of pricing, Zack Wheeler got 5yrs/118 million dollars but three years ago in Dec. of '19. Kevin Gausman got 5yrs/110 from Toronto, Robbie Ray got 5/115 million from Seattle, both of whom are older and less accomplished pitchers than Burnes. 

Since he'll already be 32 when he hits free agency, maybe the Brewers could get Brandon Woodruff to sign on at  5 yrs/115 million dollars if it was offered. However, the Brewers have no history of offering pitchers that kind of money, and would likely take the less risky route if they were not in contention, and trade him off. 

Burnes has zero reason to even consider an extension with Milwaukee. If his current level of production continues through to the end of 2024 he can sell himself to the highest bidder for... 30, 35, 40 million AAV.

 

[monty57]

32 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Not really. Market=budget.  Today's owners are mostly billionaire financiers, they're not pouring their own fortune into operating expenses, nor are they likely in it for annual income. 

 

This isn't true either. If Burnes or Woodruff were interested in an extension it would have happened already. 

In order to sign them now to contract extension the Brewers would have to offer them market rates. In terms of pricing, Zack Wheeler got 5yrs/118 million dollars but three years ago in Dec. of '19. Kevin Gausman got 5yrs/110 from Toronto, Robbie Ray got 5/115 million from Seattle, both of whom are older and less accomplished pitchers than Burnes. 

Since he'll already be 32 when he hits free agency, maybe the Brewers could get Brandon Woodruff to sign on at  5 yrs/115 million dollars if it was offered. However, the Brewers have no history of offering pitchers that kind of money, and would likely take the less risky route if they were not in contention, and trade him off. 

Burnes has zero reason to even consider an extension with Milwaukee. If his current level of production continues through to the end of 2024 he can sell himself to the highest bidder for... 30, 35, 40 million AAV.

 

I agree with all of this. Since Peralta and Ashby were both offered the contracts they signed, I believe that similar contracts were offered to Burnes and Woodruff. Since they declined the offer and decided to go year-to-year into free agency (which is their right and I have no problem with it), the team has to do what's best for the team. 

Offering them a monster deal now probably isn't what's best for the team, nor is letting them walk in free agency. That pretty much leaves one option, which is trading them at some point in the next couple of seasons.

I hope the team continues to offer deals to talented pre-arby guys like they did with Peralta and Ashby. It gives the team cost certainty and a couple extra years of the player's service, and if things go bad, the contract won't cripple the franchise like a big free agent contract could.

 

As to the first sentence, I watched an interview of David Rubenstein on CNBC. He is the founder of The Carlyle Group, and has been rumored to be someone who may purchase one of the sports teams that look to be on the market. He said it's really hard to lose money by buying a professional sports team, but that MLB and NBA owners buy for the long-term capital gain, and don't expect to get any year-to-year income. NFL owners can expect to get both. Just brought this up because he'd know as much as anyone about this, so him saying it bears some weight.

[UpandIn]

11 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

The problem is we've already about abandoned the strategy that produced the good teams in 18-19. Those teams including a blossoming Yelich acquired in a huge prospect for established player trade. We haven't made a deal like that again. It also included a major free agent signing in Grandal. That's another avenue we now ignore. 

Now we're stuck with a mediocre team, while this thread suggests we deal our best players instead of adding to the team. 

They didn't trade for Adames last year?

A guy worth 4.2 WAR last year and for whom we gave up a REALLY good young pitching prospect?

Or they didn't trade for a guy who became an MVP? 'Cause that's pretty rare. They DID try to trade for Bryan Reynolds. That's been widely reported. 

But making A trade is not a "strategy," it's a move in service of a larger strategy. They didn't abandon anything. They jumped on opportunities when they arose, they tried to win with run prevention and incorporating young players into the team when possible. What "changed" exactly? Grandal? Tell me the premiere FA who they COULD have signed for a 1 year deal?

They've made an obvious philosophical change in what type of prospects they're going to go after in player development. Better hit tools and athletes rather than power and position-less players. 

 

What happened was you dug in on a bad take claiming last year was the "outlier" during the Brewers playoff run, ignoring the previous two years with the same manager and many of the same players and then when you realized it was a bad take, you doubled down on it.

Also, for the record, 

2018 Runs scored- 12th
2019 Runs scored- 15th(one run out of 19th)

2022 Runs scored- 9th

So the elite FA that was part of some 'strategy' we've abandoned, aside from not being there and ACTUALLY being the outlier, it wasn't the problem. 

[UpandIn]

Quote

 

This isn't true either. If Burnes or Woodruff were interested in an extension it would have happened already. 

In order to sign them now to contract extension the Brewers would have to offer them market rates. In terms of pricing, Zack Wheeler got 5yrs/118 million dollars but three years ago in Dec. of '19. Kevin Gausman got 5yrs/110 from Toronto, Robbie Ray got 5/115 million from Seattle, both of whom are older and less accomplished pitchers than Burnes. 

Since he'll already be 32 when he hits free agency, maybe the Brewers could get Brandon Woodruff to sign on at  5 yrs/115 million dollars if it was offered. However, the Brewers have no history of offering pitchers that kind of money, and would likely take the less risky route if they were not in contention, and trade him off. 

Burnes has zero reason to even consider an extension with Milwaukee. If his current level of production continues through to the end of 2024 he can sell himself to the highest bidder for... 30, 35, 40 million AAV.

 

I don't think you can totally separate the two. When you're on the hook to pay a guy who put up back to back MVP caliber seasons 200M and you'll be paying him through...what, 2042, that clearly impacts how much money you can take on and how much risk you can tolerate in OTHER long term deals...when you're a small market team.

It's VERY possible neither sign either way. Or maybe the Brewers are more aggressive if they're not paying Yelich what they are. 

I also disagree there's NO motivation for a pitcher, even one of Burnes caliber to sign an extension. It just has to be an expensive one. deGrom was much more dominant than even Burnes, he'd been pretty healthy, he'd been dominant. He's also been hurt quite a bit in the last couple years of that deal, but he's two full years away from being a FA. There's always an argument to take a below market deal while still guaranteeing yourself a whole lot of money.

Last I'd heard rumors of an extension between the two sides was a couple years ago and the Brewers were likely looking more at a Peralta/Ashby type deal. 

 

The same people who lament the albatross that is Yelich's contract would be the first to trash a Burnes/Woodruff contract extension if either got hurt. And it's not like we haven't seen aces go from dominating to injured and never effective again. It happened to Jimmy Nelson, the kinda forgotten ace during this latest era on a slide back into 1st. 

[Robocaller]

14 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

This isn't true either. If Burnes or Woodruff were interested in an extension it would have happened already. 

Of course they're interested in an extension, they just haven't been offered enough money.

[monty57]

10 hours ago, UpandIn said:

But making A trade is not a "strategy," it's a move in service of a larger strategy.

This is a really important point. Every move is critiqued individually, but really needs to be looked at as part of a bigger puzzle. I used to think that we should model ourselves after the Rays or A’s, but I now think we’re trying to operate more like the Cardinals. 
 

We sometimes trade prospects for MLB players, and sometimes trade MLB players for prospects. We sometimes sign guys to extensions, and sometimes trade guys away. 
 

Stearns seems to like trades that bring in players with team control and he mainly uses free agency for short-term, “fill a hole in the roster” players. 
 

Most of our extensions are going to be offered to pre-arby guys because that’s where you can get the most value from the deal, and because we simply can’t afford too many high-priced players on the roster. 

[BruisedCrew]

20 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

Also, for the record, 

2018 Runs scored- 12th
2019 Runs scored- 15th(one run out of 19th)

2022 Runs scored- 9th

So the elite FA that was part of some 'strategy' we've abandoned, aside from not being there and ACTUALLY being the outlier, it wasn't the problem. 

I’m not sure what point you’re making with those numbers, but you have to keep a couple of things in mind when comparing MLB ranks between seasons.

First, in 2018 and 2019 when only the AL had the DH, the AL was generally higher scoring,

Second, even when both leagues have the DH, it is inevitable that one league will be higher scoring than the other. Because the teams are playing very different schedules, just looking at pure runs scored may not be a good comparison.

Third, even within a league, with the schedules being heavily weighted with intradivisional games, a team in a weaker division will have a built in advantage when it comes to wins and other stats. I don’t know if you can specifically quantify this but, like something like park adjustments, you have to recognize that it exists.

I’ve made the point several times that, at least IMHO, the Brewers offensive stats this year are inflated by the high number of games they’ve had  against the league’s worst teams. The Brewers record against these teams may be the most glaring evidence that this year’s team is further behind the league’s best teams than their record might suggest. 
 

If you want to compare the 2018 and 2022 Brewers, you have to consider that in 2018 the Reds were the only division team to finish under .500 and the division teams were an aggregate 45 games over .500.

This year the division teams are an aggregate 51 games UNDER .500. 
 

ETA: Sorry for the double post. I edited the original one and somehow it came out as a whole new post.

 

[Hopper]

12 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Of course they're interested in an extension, they just haven't been offered enough money.

I actually think that both players will be happy as hell to get out of Milwaukee, pitch for teams that can score them some runs, and have a chance at a World Series.

None of that seems to be happening here, so who can blame them?

[LouisEly]

19 minutes ago, Hopper said:

I actually think that both players will be happy as hell to get out of Milwaukee, pitch for teams that can score them some runs, and have a chance at a World Series.

None of that seems to be happening here, so who can blame them?

List of teams that have been to the the playoffs each of the last four seasons:

1) Astros
2) Dodgers
3) Yankees
4) Braves
5) Brewers

Doesn't look like they have a lot of options.

[nate82]

I believe the Orioles and Rangers will come calling this off season for one of Burnes/Woodruff.  Both the Orioles and Rangers have the prospects to deal for either pitcher.  Woodruff will command less than Burnes currently so I believe Woodruff is more likely to be traded than Burnes.

I don't see the Brewers doing a complete teardown so a rebuild is not a likely scenario.  If the Brewers wanted to do a rebuild they do have the pieces to make that happen in Adames, Burnes, Williams and Woodruff being the ones who could bring back a lot of value for the Brewers.

I think the Brewers will trade one of Burnes/Woodruff this offseason to bring in younger talent.  I think the Brewers will try to do a soft reset with the prospects that they have coming up with Feliciano, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Turang and Ruiz.  I wouldn't be surprised with an all rookie OF either with Yelich moving to the permanent DH spot.  I think the Brewers move on from Hiura by trading him this offseason as well.

I think a soft reset will be the plan and I kind of agree that it should be the plan for the Brewers.  

[NBBrewFan]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

List of teams that have been to the the playoffs each of the last four seasons:

1) Astros
2) Dodgers
3) Yankees
4) Braves
5) Brewers

Yeah those FOUR post seasons have yielded the following:

Yep that great record in 18 games is going to excite all those players.  Wooohooo! 4 straight!!!! One and done 3 of the years!!!! Yay!!!!  I guess we'll just have to settle for those huge trophies and banners they award for making the playoffs and we can display them alongside the 1982 World Series Losers memorabilia and celebrate them every year. 

And as a franchise we are just a juggernaut:

[Hopper]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

I believe the Orioles and Rangers will come calling this off season for one of Burnes/Woodruff.  Both the Orioles and Rangers have the prospects to deal for either pitcher.  Woodruff will command less than Burnes currently so I believe Woodruff is more likely to be traded than Burnes.

I don't see the Brewers doing a complete teardown so a rebuild is not a likely scenario.  If the Brewers wanted to do a rebuild they do have the pieces to make that happen in Adames, Burnes, Williams and Woodruff being the ones who could bring back a lot of value for the Brewers.

I think the Brewers will trade one of Burnes/Woodruff this offseason to bring in younger talent.  I think the Brewers will try to do a soft reset with the prospects that they have coming up with Feliciano, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Turang and Ruiz.  I wouldn't be surprised with an all rookie OF either with Yelich moving to the permanent DH spot.  I think the Brewers move on from Hiura by trading him this offseason as well.

I think a soft reset will be the plan and I kind of agree that it should be the plan for the Brewers.  

There is no way we plan to start next season with Ruiz, Frelick, Wiemer, and Mitchell.  There is no room for all 4 rookies when we still have to have a place for Yelich.  I also don't think they have any plans to have Yelich be their regular DH for the next 7 years starting next year.  He'll be in the OF most days for the foreseeable future.

It is far more likely that one or two of those guys get traded this offseason.  I'm just hoping it isn't Frelick and Wiemer.  I'd hate to see Mitchell go, and I have no connection to Ruiz, so if one has to go, I'm hoping it's him.

What a shame it would be to give up on Hiura.  That would bum me out.

[LouisEly]

3 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

Yeah those FOUR post seasons have yielded the following:

Yep that great record in 18 games is going to excite all those players.  Wooohooo! 4 straight!!!! One and done 3 of the years!!!! Yay!!!!  I guess we'll just have to settle for those huge trophies and banners they award for making the playoffs and we can display them alongside the 1982 World Series Losers memorabilia and celebrate them every year. 

And as a franchise we are just a juggernaut:

Then I guess they will have to go to one of the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, or Braves.  Like I said, not a lot to choose from.

[NBBrewFan]

32 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Then I guess they will have to go to one of the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, or Braves.  Like I said, not a lot to choose from.

I wonder if anyone has asked the Red Sox to give back their 2018 title since it was only in the third straight year they were in the playoffs.  The Red Sox 2013 title should be vacated because that was their first playoff appearance in 4 years. The Cardinals must be outraged at the violation of this unwritten rule. Good to know the Red Sox won't be competing for Burnes or Woodruff since they won't make the playoffs this year and can't possibly have a chance in the year Burnes/Woodruff become free agents. And the Giants clearly have no clue about the 4 straight years to have a chance as all 3 of their recent titles they missed the playoffs the prior year.  What were they thinking?  Have a chance?  Bah!

[wntrtxn21]

4 hours ago, nate82 said:

I believe the Orioles and Rangers will come calling this off season for one of Burnes/Woodruff.  Both the Orioles and Rangers have the prospects to deal for either pitcher.  Woodruff will command less than Burnes currently so I believe Woodruff is more likely to be traded than Burnes.

I don't see the Brewers doing a complete teardown so a rebuild is not a likely scenario.  If the Brewers wanted to do a rebuild they do have the pieces to make that happen in Adames, Burnes, Williams and Woodruff being the ones who could bring back a lot of value for the Brewers.

I think the Brewers will trade one of Burnes/Woodruff this offseason to bring in younger talent.  I think the Brewers will try to do a soft reset with the prospects that they have coming up with Feliciano, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Turang and Ruiz.  I wouldn't be surprised with an all rookie OF either with Yelich moving to the permanent DH spot.  I think the Brewers move on from Hiura by trading him this offseason as well.

I think a soft reset will be the plan and I kind of agree that it should be the plan for the Brewers.  

If the Brewers went with an all rookie outfield next year it would be a sign of a complete tear down and giving up on 2023. Where Stearns has to address is not LF/RF, but CF-3B-C. I think baring an extreme let down by Hiura, he's the starting DH next year with Yelich in LF and Renfroe in RF. Maybe Stearns can trade for a rookie 3B and start a rookie in CF.  I agree Burnes or Woodruff will be traded to bring in help at 3B and other areas.