2023: Where do we go from here?

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

Anything is possible, the real question is what’s most probable that’s what you don’t want to discuss.

Yes, what's most probable is that the Brewers aren't going to do the complete teardown you're advocating for and instead are going to largely run it back while pursuing both internal and external roster upgrades.

[Jopal78]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes, what's most probable is that the Brewers aren't going to do the complete teardown you're advocating for and instead are going to largely run it back while pursuing both internal and external roster upgrades.

Let me finish your statement: Which wins 85 games in 2023.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Let me finish your statement: Which wins 85 games in 2023.

Whatever dude. You're so dang confrontational. And I look forward to you hopefully being wrong. 

[Frisbee Slider]

David Stearns essentially  assured fans they will not do a complete tear down after the Hader trade. 

[LouisEly]

17 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

That team is no different than this years and wins 85 games.

Huh?

1) Improvement - less use of Alexander, Gonzales, Small, Houser as starters = more wins
2) Improvement - player playing better (1.63 FIP vs. 3.30 FIP) = more wins
3) Improvement - young player getting better = more wins
4) Improvement - .871 OPS replacing .695 OPS = more wins
5) Improvement - player playing better = more wins
6) Improvement - 2.5 WAR replacing 0.8 combined WAR = literally more wins
9) Improvement - literally looking for an improvement

You don't seem to acknowledge three truths;

1) The first truth that I listed in my post
2) Players performance can vary from year to year and you don't have to replace a player to get better performance
3) The Brewers can't add a significant amount of payroll so they have to take chances on players getting better

[yourout]

The question is....Reload, remodel, or rebuild.

For me its at least remodel. That means at least different catcher, CF,  and 2b.

A full on rebuild is also possible with selling off Burnes and Woodruff though not likely.

Reload is not an option as there simply is not enough pieces on the current roster.

[monty57]

I think there’s a middle ground. Burnes / Woodruff won’t bring back as much as Soto, but they will bring back a lot. There’s a good chance that one will be traded, and that would bring back some pretty good talent to add to what we’ve already got. 
 

Trout and Ohtani show that having the two best players in baseball won’t win you much. You need talent across the board. We have a lot of talent on the team, and we have talented youngsters to add to that mix. We don’t need a magic pill, we just need to keep adding talent. 
 

I highly doubt we’ll blow things up, but I do think there will be changes. Our big question is “do we trade pitching, and if so, which of Burnes/Woodruff do we trade and which do we keep for another year?” There are a other things, too, but what we get back from Burnes/Woodruff (if one is traded) will help answer how we shuffle the rest of the players. 

[brewers888]

28 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I think there’s a middle ground. Burnes / Woodruff won’t bring back as much as Soto, but they will bring back a lot. There’s a good chance that one will be traded, and that would bring back some pretty good talent to add to what we’ve already got. 
 

Trout and Ohtani show that having the two best players in baseball won’t win you much. You need talent across the board. We have a lot of talent on the team, and we have talented youngsters to add to that mix. We don’t need a magic pill, we just need to keep adding talent. 
 

I highly doubt we’ll blow things up, but I do think there will be changes. Our big question is “do we trade pitching, and if so, which of Burnes/Woodruff do we trade and which do we keep for another year?” There are a other things, too, but what we get back from Burnes/Woodruff (if one is traded) will help answer how we shuffle the rest of the players. 

No disrespect intended at all but do we really have a lot of talent on this team or do we only have a few premium pitchers with little talent in the way of position players as I currently see it. Is there even one everyday player on this roster that you would be upset if they weren't on the team next season.

It most likely won't happen but I am in favor of trading both Burnes and Woodruff if the returns are what we expect and not the underwhelming package that we received for Hader. Its more than ok to take a step back next season and be prepared to contend again in 24 as coming back with a similar team next season is not the direction the team should go. Most people get offended when I say this but the team should either sign Stearns long term or let him go after this season ends as a lame duck executive should not be handling business going forward.

[Never Outhustled]

For the first time in years, ticket sales have gone stagnant. Attanasio was enabled to skate by with a weak payroll because Brewer fans were happy with a competitive team.

Now, if a significant move isn't made in the offseason to upgrade the team, AmFam will be a ghost town next year. 

That could be a free agent, but more likely a prospect for big salary veteran trade. The Brewers were sleeping at the wheel while the Cardinals stole Arrenado, and it's killed us. Our turn. 

With numerous OF prospects in AAA, a long with an 3 starting caliber OFs on the big club, this should be easy. Get a star.

We don't need to change our offensive approach, what we really need is better players. 

[Thurston Fluff]

We have four starting pitchers with two years of control left. I doubt Hauser brings much back but he's also the biggest injury risk. I wouldn't mind them trading him for a reliever. Perhaps package him and Small for a better return. I'm not sold Small is capable of being anything but a back of the rotation starter but I think he could bring back an interesting player in a package.

Lauer to me is the one trade candidate that will bring back a decent amount compared to what he's likely to contribute. I could see him being traded for another starter with more team control and a low minors prospect with upside to boot. Perhaps we trade him in the same type of move we made to get him.

One of Burnes or Woodruff should be traded and leave one true ace to stabilize the rotation in 2023. Personally I'd rather keep Woodruff than Burnes because he's been the most consistent of the two since he's been here.

On the position player side we have a lot of speed, defense and contact hitters coming up. In the world of finding undervalued assets I think we're on the right side of a trend as I think that type of profile is going to become more useful in the near future given the way pitchers pitch these days. Decent defense also allows ground ball pitchers to be effective. That type of pitcher is out of vogue now which makes them cost effective if you have the defense to back them up. If our position players are of the right type to allow for less expensive pitchers to be effective it's almost like getting two for one value wise. So I'd just let the young position players play and add a catcher and third baseman to the group via trade. WE could very well have a team like the 2017-18 years as early as next year. More reasonably in 24 but 23 is possible if the right moves are made.

[NBBrewFan]

26 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

WE could very well have a team like the 2017-18 years as early as next year. More reasonably in 24 but 23 is possible if the right moves are made.

In 2018 we had the 3rd and 4th best OF in MLB (Yelich/Cain), the 6th best 1B (Aguilar), and the 8th Best 3B (Shaw) by fWAR.  Currently in 2022 we have:

Where are the upgrades coming from that will lead the top 5 players at their positions?

[igor67]

Primary OF/ DH rotation next year Yelich, Hiura, Frelick, Mitchell, Renfoe, Taylor. Between flexibility, match-up options and defense there is definite room for offensive growth and defensive growth. Turang at second definitely improves the infield defense enough to be a good bet to at least equal Wong's total value this year on both offense and defense with the advantage of more upside. Catcher was one of the bigger steps back this year and moving in the youth direction provides some upside as well. Scramble the bullpen options with some mix of trades and signings, and look for development in the rotation with some more neutral luck on pitching injuries.

It's a viable mix consistent with things Stearns has generally done well (find bullpen options, mix and match) that is reasonable since there was a lot of players taking a half step back on the major league side and really only Huira coming on strong a benefit limited by his lack of playing time. Yelick has also outperformed the last 2 years, but only modestly so he can't really make up for so many players doing just a bit worse. And as usual Stearn could pull off a move we don't see coming, maybe at 3rd or catcher or even 1st.

[NBBrewFan]

8 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Catcher was one of the bigger steps back this year and moving in the youth direction provides some upside as well.

I'd be amazed if they have Catcher high on their list.  Both Caratini and Severino will be back next year (and Feliciano) and I am guessing that unless a Catcher falls in their lap they will be putting a priority on middle relief and getting a bat (hopefully a 3B). I think the DFAing of Severino came with a verbal guarantee from the Brewers that they twould bring him back in 2023 to platoon.

[Never Outhustled]

16 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

I'd be amazed if they have Catcher high on their list.  Both Caratini and Severino will be back next year (and Feliciano) and I am guessing that unless a Catcher falls in their lap they will be putting a priority on middle relief and getting a bat (hopefully a 3B). I think the DFAing of Severino came with a verbal guarantee from the Brewers that they twould bring him back in 2023 to platoon.

Severino isn't even a good AAA player. The team needs to find a starting catcher, with Caratini the back up. 

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

Severino isn't even a good AAA player. The team needs to find a starting catcher, with Caratini the back up. 

There just isn't a lot of options at Catcher.  We're likely not going to sign Contreras and shouldn't at his age.  It's a weak position across the board and the ones who can hit worth a damn and have good/passable defense aren't in our price range.  They could try to get another year out of Narvaez, but I think he'll get a multi-year from somebody and will be too expensive.

It would be great if we could trade for someone like Sean Murphy.  The A's are in rebuild and he likely is gone or in his last year before FA when the next window for the A's opens.  He's Arby eligible next year so he starts to get expensive for them.  While he's not going to get the return of Olson or Chapman, we would likely need to outbid other teams and are we going to give up maybe Quero and (Weimer or Mitchell), but the A's would start with Frelick and Quero plus for Murphy..

[Robocaller]

17 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Let me finish your statement: Which wins 85 games in 2023.

StL won a World Series after winning 83 games.  So you're saying there's a chance.

[Jopal78]

7 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Huh?

1) Improvement - less use of Alexander, Gonzales, Small, Houser as starters = more wins
2) Improvement - player playing better (1.63 FIP vs. 3.30 FIP) = more wins
3) Improvement - young player getting better = more wins
4) Improvement - .871 OPS replacing .695 OPS = more wins
5) Improvement - player playing better = more wins
6) Improvement - 2.5 WAR replacing 0.8 combined WAR = literally more wins
9) Improvement - literally looking for an improvement

You don't seem to acknowledge three truths;

1) The first truth that I listed in my post
2) Players performance can vary from year to year and you don't have to replace a player to get better performance
3) The Brewers can't add a significant amount of payroll so they have to take chances on players getting better

That’s my point. The Brewers are in last place amongst the teams in the NL that are trying to win.

Where does the improvement come from to get back to being one of the top 3 teams in the NL?

There is no regular on their MLB roster who isn’t already at or near their ceiling, so the current group isn’t going to simply start playing great en masse. Moreover?  calling up “the kids”: Mitchell, Frelick, etc. doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll improve either. After all, Ashby wasn’t good this year in his first shot as a regular, and  Mitchell and Ruiz have struggled in their first weeks worth of games in Milwaukee too.

On top of that, we all know the Brewers aren’t going to be players for difference making free agents.

So really they’re left with trading from one area of the big league club to improve another: they could get lucky but historically that’s a recipe for mediocrity. 
 

Maybe they don’t want to do a rebuild but it’s probably better than lateral moves of trading starting pitchers for hitters and hoping to get lucky.

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

In 2018 we had the 3rd and 4th best OF in MLB (Yelich/Cain), the 6th best 1B (Aguilar), and the 8th Best 3B (Shaw) by fWAR.  Currently in 2022 we have:

Where are the upgrades coming from that will lead the top 5 players at their positions?

What was the highest ranked starting pitcher that the Brewers had in 2018?  The highest ranked one I could find was #56.

In 2021, the Brewers had the #1, #10, and #21 ranked SPs with at least 100 IP based on fWAR.  Why can't those three replicate that in 2023, and doesn't having better starting pitching offset having worse offense? 

[NBBrewFan]

58 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

What was the highest ranked starting pitcher that the Brewers had in 2018?  The highest ranked one I could find was #56.

In 2021, the Brewers had the #1, #10, and #21 ranked SPs with at least 100 IP based on fWAR.  Why can't those three replicate that in 2023, and doesn't having better starting pitching offset having worse offense? 

Why didn't those 3 pitchers replicate those numbers in 2022?  What makes you think that they will likely repeat in 2023? The reason this year is sucking is they COUNTED on the pitching being as good in 2022 as it was in 2021 and they short changed the offense. Peralta and Woodruff struggled before they were injured and when they did get injured we were giving way too many starts to Jason Alexander and Ashby.  AND the defense is worse because we no longer had an elite CF or a decent 2B (with Wong's defensive decline now in the 3rd year) or an adequate 3B and our 1B is meh and fields like a DH and our DH shouldn't play the field and our LF should be a DH. Why can't we have the same defense from 2021 in 2023?  We might if Frelick is as good as they say and Turang replaces Wong at 2B or they shift Urias to 2B, but rookies likely won't be a positive with the bat for awhile (not like we got much from CF this year, but we did in 2021). Why can't we just have the best year from every player we have in 2023.  There, such a simple plan and of course it has a great likelihood of working.  

[LouisEly]

8 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Why didn't those 3 pitchers replicate those numbers in 2022?  What makes you think that they will likely repeat in 2023? 

You're right, it's totally unrealistic to expect pitchers who are ages 27, 29, and 26 to repeat their performance.

[Thurston Fluff]

22 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

In 2018 we had the 3rd and 4th best OF in MLB (Yelich/Cain), the 6th best 1B (Aguilar), and the 8th Best 3B (Shaw) by fWAR.  Currently in 2022 we have:

Where are the upgrades coming from that will lead the top 5 players at their positions?

In 2018 we also trotted Arcia out at short every day. Now we have a top ten player there. When someone like Shaw and Aguilar can be the 8th and 6th best at their position I don't think it unrealistic to think we can find layers like that again. As I said 2024 sounds more realistic but 23 isn't impossible. It'll just take the same amount of luck as with players like Shaw and Aguilar having career years in 2018. But luck helps those who help themselves. The Brewers are in a position to add a lot of depth to an already ascending farm system. They just need to get their feet wet and let things shake out. How soon that happens will determine how soon this team rebounds. I think 2024 more likely but am not counting out 2023.

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

There isn't anybody on this team I would be opposed not seeing next year.  I am a Brewers fan first and a players fan second.  If David Stearns thinks trading player A is in the best interest of the team I am all for it.  I don't care about individuals bWAR, ERA, or age I care about wins.  The past should not be used to predict the future.  

[UpandIn]

On 9/4/2022 at 2:50 PM, Samurai Bucky said:

This:  https://wisportsheroics.com/the-struggling-brewers-offense-needs-to-fix-two-problems/

Their approach to the plate has been horrid.  It also hasn't been this year, but the last couple of years.

Yes, I know.  Complain about 3PO, people say it is OK as long as OBP is up, we complain about K's (well, not really as long as the OBP is up), then complain that the Crew can't hit.  What is the approach when they come to the plate?  Are they overthinking because of advanced stats and Sabermetrics?  If it is because of talent, then cut all of the Free Agents, and bring up the young guys from AAA.  Do not trade Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta.  They have been solid except for the last few games.  It is tough going out there knowing you have to throw a shutout EVERY NIGHT to have a chance.

The approach of the offense is garbage.  Fix that above all else.

Yeah, I didn't read that, but I feel like the Brewers issues are pretty obvious.

Even Kolten Wong has said something like how he likes the freedom the Brewers give him with 2 strikes where he doesn't have to shorten up. 

The Brewers have REALLY tested the limits of "strikeouts don't matter." I mean...they don't if you're Aaron Judge or Prince Fielder or Ryan Braun, but they kinda do when you're a slap hitting 2nd Basemen or...3B or C or CF or LF or I guess pretty much every position on this team save for RF, SS and 1B and we're not setting records at those positions. 

But again, seems like the Brewers have figured this out and that's the impetus behind the Mitchell, Frelick, Black...maybe Turang(I just think he was a prospect who fell). Anyway, I don't think the front office is stupid, I think they're limited. They know the flaws on this team. If you're going to be a run prevention team, you have to manufacture runs once in a while. 

 

Quote

Do not trade Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta.

I don't think we're talking about trading Peralta(I also don't think he's the 3rd best pitcher or would get the 3rd most in return...).

And I don't think any Brewers fan here WANTS to trade either player. But we're just going to have to. Either that or we pay them and the Brewers just do not have the money to pay probably one of them, but definitely not both. Even if Yelich wasn't on the books. If they were FAs, they'd conservatively get 75M a year. I think 40M for a guy like Burnes is going to be the going rate moving forward and 35 for Woodruff.  

The good news is, the Brewers are getting more money from TV deals. The bad news is, the local deal still comes in at a FRACTION of the large market teams and the National money is...National money. 

 

This is where I would like to once again thank Pete Rozelle and Wellington Mara for their contributions to the NFL and revenue sharing making it so the NFL wasn't a joke like MLB. But we are where we are. We can't keep guys like Burnes and Woodruff and let them walk for nothing. You have to keep turning those players into younger prospects. 

 

 

Hey, at least we haven't lost an ace sliding back into 1st Base in the last...couple years. 

[UpandIn]

On 9/5/2022 at 5:40 PM, NBBrewFan said:

Why didn't those 3 pitchers replicate those numbers in 2022?  What makes you think that they will likely repeat in 2023? The reason this year is sucking is they COUNTED on the pitching being as good in 2022 as it was in 2021 and they short changed the offense. Peralta and Woodruff struggled before they were injured and when they did get injured we were giving way too many starts to Jason Alexander and Ashby.

This feels like a rhetorical question because...they're all in their primes. What makes you think they all had career years in the same season or that Ashby who can hit 99, has a nasty slider, why can't he become a #2 pitcher?

Yeah, of COURSE they counted on their pitching when they had the reigning Cy Young, a guy who finished 5th and then Peralta, Lauer, Ashby, Houser, Williams, Hader, Small.

How do you build a team with a limited payroll, arguably the best staff in baseball and not just try and put a top 10 offense out there and think you'll be competitive? Because it didn't work out perfectly or hasn't thus far, doesn't mean the logic was flawed.

Then you factor in the guy who was effectively the back to back MVP if he doesn't hurt his knee and plays 3 more weeks and Keston Hiura are about a combined 350 points down on their OPS.

 

I'm all for criticizing bad moves, but then tell me the moves that they SHOULD have made? I'm not a blind Stearns apologist...but you're just explaining what happened. How would YOU have prevented it? What's the obvious fix even with the benefit of hindsight, that you would have made?

 

[torts]

In 2023 we're going to be raising a banner in April and having a ring ceremony