Hunter Renfroe to Angels for 3 pitchers

[Eye Black]

FanGraphs Scouting Reports on all three pitchers from last offseason:

[igor67]

With 3 pitchers there are solid odds that at least 1 of those pitchers produces a similar level of value in the coming year compared to what Renfroe produces. There is certainly plenty of reason to guess the most likely outcome is him producing more value, but arms and options are good things. There is also competitive value in not being committed to anyone of the pitchers in particular, they will get chances but none is likely to get too many chances. When evaluating this trade Renfoe was dealt just last year for JBJ and the historical trend is that this type of player does not get big trade pickups across the league anymore. If this was 2002 I'd be disappointed in the return, but in 2022 it's OK.

[igor67]

The hesitation on starting a pile of rookies and being competitive does make some amount of sense, but having Taylor and Yelich around gives something of a floor on some spots, but even in the most extreme case where Taylor is the 4th OFer, and Yelich mostly becomes a DH we still have 4 prospects ready more or less to try and show what they can do in 3 spots. All of them have strong defensive profiles, all have more offensive upside then Renfroe. Not a guarantee, but in terms of being competitive next year the defense improvement and number of options makes underperforming Renfroe's base value relatively unlikely and our best chances at being a really good team likely involves one or more of those rookies having great campaigns and generating a lot more value then we could ever hope from Renfroe. 

[Austin Tatious]

29 minutes ago, igor67 said:

The hesitation on starting a pile of rookies and being competitive does make some amount of sense, but having Taylor and Yelich around gives something of a floor on some spots, but even in the most extreme case where Taylor is the 4th OFer, and Yelich mostly becomes a DH we still have 4 prospects ready more or less to try and show what they can do in 3 spots. All of them have strong defensive profiles, all have more offensive upside then Renfroe. Not a guarantee, but in terms of being competitive next year the defense improvement and number of options makes underperforming Renfroe's base value relatively unlikely and our best chances at being a really good team likely involves one or more of those rookies having great campaigns and generating a lot more value then we could ever hope from Renfroe. 

I’m bullish on a number of our prospects but it’s naive to think that most won’t need a year or two of growing pains.  

[Austin Tatious]

That Jason Alexander spot really hurt us last year.  I don’t think the FO wants us in that position again.  Small needs to improve his command.  The FO has shown they won’t rely on him until he does.  

Junk (a spectacular name for a pitcher without elite stuff) might be in line for that extra starter spot that Alexander held.  

Semanaris might have potential to develop into a Suter type if he develops.  Lefty who can come in for middle relief.  

I don’t know what to make of Pegeuro.  Live arm.  Maybe he harnesses it.   Probably a decent ceiling as a reliever but a very low floor.   

[sveumrules]

5 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

They won't because they won't spend to make the roster better or trade those guys because that would send a message to the fan base that they are re-building.  They want to walk this tight rope between being just good enough to be above .500(fingers crossed we get into the playoffs) but not going for it.  They are waiting for the perfect scenario where everything goes right which will never happen.  The only thing I know which ever plan they come up with it leads to the same result. No WS.   I can already see the narrative where they will let it leak that they offered Burnes and Woody and extension, but they turned it down.  Then they can go that see we tried.  The narrative will quickly go from opportunistic back to controllable talent and this so called Golden Age of Brewer Baseball will be part of the history books and fans can look back and say look how clever we were.

Can I get the PowerBall numbers too?

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

So many of the posts here are focused on downplaying Renfroe which is telling. Have yet to see anyone offer up a hidden nugget uncovering what the Brewers might see in one or more of the pitchers they got in return. That's probably because none of them even have extreme youth on their side. Usually a prospect is either putting up eye popping minor league numbers or is young for the level they were playing at. That's not the case with any of these guys.

It's easy to see why the Brewers were looking to move Renfroe rather than pay what he'll get this year but they didn't have to trade him for Junk.

Or it shows the real value of Renfroe at 11 million dollars. The best the Brewers  could do without including cash was a quantity for quality trade involving second tier pitchers from a team with a chronic shortage of pitching talent. 

Veteran hitters who crank dingers and don’t do much else are simply  not that valuable in todays baseball economy.
 

 

[BlightyBrew]

15 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Can I get the PowerBall numbers too?

Hilarious.  Time will tell it always does.    

[LouisEly]

9 hours ago, beekay414 said:

I'm not talking about what the rest of the league has done. I'm simply commenting that every move thus far has been of the cost cutting variety. 

How is picking up Wong's option a cost-cutting move?

[CheezWizHed]

42 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

Junk (a spectacular name for a pitcher without elite stuff) might be in line for that extra starter spot that Alexander held.  

Seems like he should've been one of the pitchers in Major League! ?

[DR28]

Surprised everyone is ok with the move, he was our most productive hitter last year... Yes I get the $11 M price tag but what does this say about us competing in 2023 if we trade him away?

Unless this translates to Abreu or another big bat we dont see coming, this trade makes no sense.

[BlightyBrew]

4 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

How is picking up Wong's option a cost-cutting move?

Brilliant.  You must work in ownership.  Can hear Mark next year saying on opening day, you know picking up Wongs option his like adding a high impact free agent.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, BlightyBrew said:

Hilarious.  Time will tell it always does.    

The Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB since 2018 with a bottom ten payroll.

They’ve been pretty good at walking the tight rope necessitated by their financial standing within the MLB hierarchy.

Last year they set a new franchise record by increasing OD payroll over $30M and still lost nine more games than in 2021. Turns out money can’t buy love or wins.

What kind of OD payroll would constitute “going for it” in your opinion?

[CheezWizHed]

17 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Or it shows the real value of Renfroe at 11 million dollars. The best the Brewers  could do without including cash was a quantity for quality trade involving second tier pitchers from a team with a chronic shortage of pitching talent. 

Veteran hitters who crank dingers and don’t do much else are simply  not that valuable in todays baseball economy.

This seems to be the key.  Yes, Renfroe was one of our best hitters last year, but maybe that just isn't saying much.  It still blows my mind that Renfroe is on his 5th team in 5 seasons. Makes me wonder what else might be going on here too?

He is going to be 31 and just had his best statistical season.  And by most trade indicators...it seems like this is what he was worth.  So I guess we sold high?

I'm excited to see our rookie OFers come up.  Who knows... maybe we will have a ROTY candidate.  Frelick wouldn't surprise me. 

[torts]

we basically salvaged the Jackie Bradley signing by getting a year of 20 hrs and 3 arms.  That in itself is a win.  

[BlightyBrew]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB since 2018 with a bottom ten payroll.

They’ve been pretty good at walking the tight rope necessitated by their financial standing within the MLB hierarchy.

Last year they set a new franchise record by increasing OD payroll over $30M and still lost nine more games than in 2021. Turns out money can’t buy love or wins.

What kind of OD payroll would constitute “going for it” in your opinion?

6th most wins since 2018...So, do you get a trophy for that?  We didn't win anything.   Love how you take a small sample size of 4 years as some measure stick of success.  But its the Brewers we don't have much success. We haven't won anything in 53 years other than 1 pennant.

Franchise record payroll....   I'm so impressed but it is still below average for the league.  Maybe a conversation should begin on whether or not Milwaukee is a viable market for MLB?  I'm mean they had 2 tries and this is the 3rd.  Maybe it just doesn't work and Milwaukee is a AAA market no shame in that.

Financial standing withing the MLB hierarchy... Thats a valid point so maybe but until they open their books, or any major league team opens their all this talk of what they can't or cannot spend is pure speculation.  Mark A said at the trade deadline that they could of went after any player including Soto. I guess he was lying then. Nobody knows what they can spend or not other than those in the room.  

This trade made a not very deep lineup worse.  The players they received back don't move the needle at all.  Depth at most.  

 

[StearnsFTW]

Woof.

No matter what they spend it'll never be enough, because greedy owners, something something.

 

 

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, BlightyBrew said:

6th most wins since 2018...So, do you get a trophy for that?  We didn't win anything.   Love how you take a small sample size of 4 years as some measure stick of success.  But its the Brewers we don't have much success. We haven't won anything in 53 years other than 1 pennant.

This trade made a not very deep lineup worse.  The players they received back don't move the needle at all.  Depth at most.  

 

Of course there is no trophy for winning the 6th most games over the last five seasons, but it’s a pretty big improvement over winning the 21st most games in MLB from 2012-16 before Stearns & company took over. And how is five seasons and 709 games a small sample?

If you prefer the 50+ year sample, the Brewers have been an irrelevant footnote for the overwhelming majority of that time, which makes the last five seasons all the more impressive, even if it didn’t ultimately result in a WS win.

Brewers ranked 8th in position player WAR last year. No trophy for that either, but still deeper than 22 other teams, five of which made the playoffs.

Of course we didn’t get an obvious needle mover back, Renfroe is projected around 2.5 WAR @ $11M next year, nobody trades a needle mover for that kind of surplus value.

I know, I know, the offseason (& by extension the 2023 season) are already over, but what kind of hypothetical move would constitute a “needle mover” for you?

[BlightyBrew]

11 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Of course there is no trophy for winning the 6th most games over the last five seasons, but it’s a pretty big improvement over winning the 21st most games in MLB from 2012-16 before Stearns & company took over. And how is five seasons and 709 games a small sample?

If you prefer the 50+ year sample, the Brewers have been an irrelevant footnote for the overwhelming majority of that time, which makes the last five seasons all the more impressive, even if it didn’t ultimately result in a WS win.

Brewers ranked 8th in position player WAR last year. No trophy for that either, but still deeper than 22 other teams, five of which made the playoffs.

Of course we didn’t get an obvious needle mover back, Renfroe is projected around 2.5 WAR @ $11M next year, nobody trades a needle mover for that kind of surplus value.

I know, I know, the offseason (& by extension the 2023 season) are already over, but what kind of hypothetical move would constitute a “needle mover” for you?

Bassitt for a SP.

Vasquez at C

and try to trade for Diaz of the Rays to play 3rd/DH

Still thinking about 1B.

[BlightyBrew]

3 minutes ago, BlightyBrew said:

Bassitt for a SP.

Vasquez at C

and try to trade for Diaz of the Rays to play 3rd/DH

Still thinking about 1B.

I also need to work on another corner outfielder because I didn't think they would trade Hunter.

[BallFour]

Small sample but interesting nonetheless, especially with that list of pitchers.

 

[UpandIn]

10 hours ago, AdvantageSchneider said:

He'll be 31 next season.  We most likely got his career year last year.  If he was to replicate last season he'd probably be worth $11.2M but given he's on the wrong side of 30 i"m fine with some other team taking that bet.

Renfroe literally had a higher OPS, SLG and BA the year before in Boston in more ABs. 

He also has a ~900 OPS vs lefties(which we struggle badly to hit). He's 31 and it was one more year. 

You just got rid of the best hitter on the team, one who hits lefties. So...really hope you got some talented arms that can make an impact as there's really no reason to expect a big drop off next year. 

[UpandIn]

9 hours ago, clancyphile said:

My thinking as well.

Frelick and Mitchell both ready. Taylor pretty solid. Wiemer knocking by the end of 2023... what's not to like?

And the Crew usually gets a lot out of "discards" in the bullpen.

Our lineup(as of now) vs left handed pitchers?

[AdvantageSchneider]

1 minute ago, UpandIn said:

Renfroe literally had a higher OPS, SLG and BA the year before in Boston in more ABs. 

He also has a ~900 OPS vs lefties(which we struggle badly to hit). He's 31 and it was one more year. 

You just got rid of the best hitter on the team, one who hits lefties. So...really hope you got some talented arms that can make an impact as there's really no reason to expect a big drop off next year. 

Yes but Boston is a better hitters park which is why his OPS+ was only 114 last year compared to 126 this year.  Going by OPS plus which is a better metric than any of the stats you quoted his second best year was 2018 in San DIego.

He was hurt this year too.  For a small market franchise it's better to let go a guy one year too early than one year too late.

[Jopal78]

7 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Renfroe literally had a higher OPS, SLG and BA the year before in Boston in more ABs. 

He also has a ~900 OPS vs lefties(which we struggle badly to hit). He's 31 and it was one more year. 

You just got rid of the best hitter on the team, one who hits lefties. So...really hope you got some talented arms that can make an impact as there's really no reason to expect a big drop off next year. 

Sure Renfroe may have been the best hitter on the team last year, but he still wasn't anything special overall which explains the package they received in return. Moreover, given the prestige of the package they received from Los Angeles, its fair to conclude there likely wasn't much trade interest in Renfroe either. 

If you believe you 80% of Renfroe's production for less than 10% of his 11+ million dollar salary, and have a team that willing to  give you players for Renfroe, you make that trade every single time.