Brewers Acquire Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro from Mariners for Wong

[CheezWizHed]

11 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

 Except for the giant fact that YOU did that.  And I quote "FWIW, he'll have to be on the opening day roster if they want the possibility of gaining that extra draft pick from the ROY vote. "

That's YOU on Frelick.  Of course, now you'll come back with some BS about how that's not what you meant.  Dancing better than the love child of Fred Astaire and Michael Jackson.

You realize that quote only explains the only way we'd get compensation if Frelick wins the ROY and isn't jumping down someone's throat about him not winning it... Odd "evidence"

[CheezWizHed]

Toro has some interesting scouting reports:

Baseball prospectus:

Yet, for his wide set of skills and versatility, he's an odd player to watch. On the spectrum of athletic grace, Toro falls closer to Hunter Pence than Ken Griffey, Jr. His above-average speed comes in the form of a waddle, and his defensive chops are strictly functional, never flashy. For all the contact he makes, you'd be generous to label either of his swings as particularly beautiful. Of course, none of these unusual aesthetics matter if Toro can finally deliver on the promising projections rooted in his excellent track record in the Minors. As Jeff Passan relayed on Twitter via a front-office source: "Abraham Toro has been on every nerd team’s breakout list for the last three years." We'll see if the Marinerds were right on this one after all. 

 Fangraphs: 

The enigmatic Toro has the tools and statistical track record befitting an everyday player but his swing and throwing can look odd, leading to some doubt as to their true efficacy.

[MrTPlush]

Meh on this trade. Winker could bounce back, but then again they fact we acquired him for little tells me no one across MLB is all that optimistic it will happen. Odds are he bounces back a little and Wong regressed a little so it’s about a wash with the bay value wise. Now it is a matter off what you do at 2B to see if you gain there versus a Wong/DH combo we could have had in the opposite reality.

So far a bit disappointing. Brewers are just rearranging deck chairs just to have new faces around. Except Wong is consider a good clubhouse guy and apparently Winker is a big time bum. 
 

If he can up his average we should have a really nice high OBP guy at the top of the lineup that doesn’t strikeout too much.

[phnxcrew]

22 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

 Except for the giant fact that YOU did that.  And I quote "FWIW, he'll have to be on the opening day roster if they want the possibility of gaining that extra draft pick from the ROY vote. "

That's YOU on Frelick.  Of course, now you'll come back with some BS about how that's not what you meant.  Dancing better than the love child of Fred Astaire and Michael Jackson.

Can we stop fighting about the possible career arc of a very good prospect on our team? What strange tangents these days.  

[phnxcrew]

47 minutes ago, JefferyLeonard said:

Oh look, it's another Brewers trade that utilizes their favorite strategy...Hope. using such a solid strategy like that for as many years as they have, it's really quite shocking they haven't been to another world series during that time. 

This is quite possibly the best way they can acquire a true 3/4 hitter for a year.  They can’t pay judge and he’s the only free agent that can be that guy.  Trades? Sure they could find a few 3/4 hitters trading burnes and woodruff.  I see this as their best shot at a cleanup hitter without going into a rebuild.  Everyone clamoring to “go for it” but then they shuffle the roster and bring in a guy with a strong possibility to succeed and we want more? 

[CheeseheadInQC]

43 minutes ago, JefferyLeonard said:

Oh look, it's another Brewers trade that utilizes their favorite strategy...Hope. using such a solid strategy like that for as many years as they have, it's really quite shocking they haven't been to another world series during that time. 

I guess I don’t really understand this take. All trades involve some measure of hope. The Brewers are hoping that last year was an aberration and Winker reverts to his Cincinnati offensive production and that they are correct that low BABIP lefties are an undervalued asset with the shift going away. The Mariners hope Wong’s defensive advanced stats are to some degree noise and not the sign of the start of a steep decline in his former best tool.

I am neither excited nor disappointed in this deal. It seems fairly even. We will see.

[folly412]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

Who’s saying Winker could be flipped?

Just here:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35165812/mariners-acquire-2b-kolten-wong-brewers

Quote

Earlier incarnations of the deal with Seattle included a third team, sources said, leaving open the possibility that Winker could eventually be dealt again.

 

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, Outlander said:

No, they actually learned from last year when they had the right handed McCutchen as.the full time DH. 

 

I have no idea what you're suggesting.

[wntrtxn21]

3 hours ago, patrickgpe said:

Ok thanks for clarifying, that is true, but I think it’s 11.5 million. 

Renfroe last year made $7.6M so if they keep the payroll the same, that's what they have to work with.  They traded him so they wouldn't have to pay the approx. $11.5M.

[brooks_quichenick]

We'll see how this plays out of course, but on paper I feel like this is a pretty great move for the Brewers. If Winker is healthy, having him in your lineup at AmFam in a contract year could be pretty savvy. Toro is a guy I've had my eye on for awhile now. He hasn't found success at the big league level quite yet, but he's only 25 years old. A switch-hitting utility guy (his floor) is still valuable, especially for a team like the Brewers that likes to platoon and rotate players often. We've got 4 years of team control for him as he enters his prime years. This is the exactly the type of move the Brewers need to take chances on.

On top of all of that, there's also now a bit more of a path for Brice Turang to establish himself in the big leagues this season.

[homer]

guys, chill out

[Matt Breen]

3 hours ago, igor67 said:

I'm now seeing a clear path for 3 different positions to have noticeable defensive upgrades next year which is pretty big. 

This is really important for this club - and something not really mentioned. While Yelich isn't very good, Mitchell, Frelick, Ruiz and Taylor could really be special. Add in Turang at 2B - and that's a lot of speed and quality glove work added to the lineup. 

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

This is really important for this club - and something not really mentioned. While Yelich isn't very good, Mitchell, Frelick, Ruiz and Taylor could really be special. Add in Turang at 2B - and that's a lot of speed and quality glove work added to the lineup. 

Exactly. Our offense was actually good enough to go to the playoffs this year. Where we fell short was the marked decline in our run prevention, including on defense. Better health from our starting pitchers and better overall defense, and things are really looking up.  

[MNBrew]

Wong was a solid dude but was never particularly solid on offense -- good stretches, yes, and some decent stats.  However, I was SO tired of him so rarely being a clutch hitter.  He's a well-known name, primarily from being a regular on good Cardinals teams and for his defense.  But I don't think he was particularly special for the Brewers.

I don't think the Brewers ever had thoughts of him playing for them in 2023.  Picking up the option was a way to get something respectable for him instead of nothing.

For everyone that doesn't care much for the Winker/Toro return.... on one hand, I get that notion, though I also tend to want to view the positive potential of both guys.  On the other hand, I'm sure if LA, SF, etc. were offering better, Arnold would've taken the better deal -- but he took this deal, which says every other team's offer wasn't as good.

[BlightyBrew]

I'm going to preface this with I know it's still early and there is a lot of moves that may happen to improve the roster. 

However, these are my thoughts at the moment.  I think if Winker is healthy (another player with bad knees and a neck issue is not good) and his head is in the right place, it's an okay move for a DH against RHP only, but the trade does not move the needle.  If anything, the roster is slightly weaker especially with all the unknowns that are currently penciled in at starting positions.

It seems to me the way this roster is penciling out that they are putting a lot of faith in young prospects, who have yet to play a full MLB season or even get in an AB at the ML level.  That's a lot of pressure on these young kids to come up and make an impact.  Especially for a team that has playoff aspirations or even "WS" aspirations.  However, based on Arnolds comments to Adam Mcalvey after the Kolten trade, that the Brewers are trying to be the "best" they can be in 2023. Seems to me that he has even dropped the pretense of contending for a WS right now.  They will not use the word rebuild but at best this is a reset to evaluate what they have in the minors to see if these prospects are legit or not.  The current lineup is very thin and to be honest there is no one that you are afraid to face.

The plan seems to be to lower payroll with the illusion of contending.  I do not believe they will sign anyone to improve the roster.  This leads me to believe that Burnes, Woody, and Adames will not be extended (and not part of the "plan") and will be gone by the trading deadline next summer, if not sooner.   I don't believe BN report that the Brewers have pulled those three off the trading block.  To me that just tells me the Brewers are telling the market that the value in return needs to be higher.

I have followed the Brewers for 44 years.  I've seen the good and the bad of this franchise and all its re-incarnations, the multiple re-builds, plans, etc.  The only thing that does not change is some other team always seems to win the WS. 

I know I will be slated for this view and ridiculed, but I have lost faith.  

[Lathund]

I think it's easy to look at Wong and see us missing out on a 2-3 WAR player next year. But have a look at his Statcast page below. That's the underlying metrics for Wong's career year offensively, how sustainable does that look for a player in his early 30s? The lower body injuries he keeps having, and going from 40th to 20th percentile in sprint speed from 2021-2022 (He was ~66th percentile in his early years) is quite worrying for someone who relies on defense and baserunning for much of his value. Add to that the struggles against LHP and his lack of versatility. Brewers probably feel like if Wong is a 1.5-2 WAR player who only plays 2B then replacing Cutch with Winker and Wong with Turang (And some more Urias/Brosseau) is an upgrade for sure. Turang being able to cover 3B, SS and CF has a knock-on effect too. 

I also think people downplay Winker a bit too much due to recency bias. He is after all a career 270/.374/.463 hitter, good for a 126 wRC+. He is one year removed from a .305/.394/.556 (147 wRC+) season. You have a big section of this board clamoring for things like "middle of the order bats" and complaining about the "HR or bust" approach. Now we get that bat, and in the form of someone who strikes out very little, runs a high (In the current environment) average and gets on base a ton. Still not happy of course, now they're busy digging holes to move the goalposts, probably. But this is how a team like this gets those bats; you trade from an area of strength and you buy low with a reasonable hope/expectation of a bounceback. Because you can't just go out and straight up get a guaranteed middle of the order type hitter, they're either not available or cost a fortune. You have to cut corners somewhere to get there. Jose Abreu is a career 133 wRC+ hitter and that cost 3 years / $60m for a 35 year old. Now just watch them flip Winker like in a delayed 3-team trade and make this all redundant...

Wong:

 

[igor67]

In the interest of fairness to the range of outcomes, given Winker's injuries there is definitely a universe were after getting dealt Huira out hits him as a DH. It's probably a 10-20% outcome even with a change of scenery though I don't see at this point that Huira has the upside with all those Ks that Winker provides though.

[UpandIn]

13 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Man Toro has a Brutal OB pct at the ML level.  He can go sit in AAA all year while Turang plays 2b.  For as long as his MLB suck has gone on for, Toro has Below! 50 Games played in AAA.  I believe I was also interested in him as above poster showed in 2020. He should provide depth in case of injury. 

If Winker is majority DH, this means all Milw has left is a Catcher to sign or acquire and the roster is set...no?

I REALLY hope not. We really will need to be able to hit left handed pitching at some point. 

Winkler would be perfect...if he was a right handed hitter. 

[UpandIn]

14 hours ago, Lajitas said:

Prepare to be blasted by not anointing Frelick as the ROY next season.

Prepare to hear how important AAA games are for elite prospects who continually get better on a year to year basis and how they need more AAA games despite an enormous list of prospect(including virtually every good prospect we've brought up in the last ~20 years and the top hitters in baseball) having played very little or now AAA ball...and many having played fewer games at AA as well. 

 

Also, the premise isn't even a good one. 

Frelick's Defense;

Quote

Another Brewers prospect with game-changing speed, Frelick covers a ton of ground in center and has continued to improve his reads and routes with more experience out there. His arm is average at best, but he does a good job of getting himself in a good position to make strong throws by beating the ball to the spot.

Quote

 

Great bat-to-ball skills and swing malleability help Frelick make a ton of contact while getting to tough pitches. Frelick’s hands work extremely well and his short swing makes him a difficult hitter to strike out.

The 22-year-old overcame some drifting issues with his swing earlier in the season, finding much more lower half consistency which has helped him make more consistent contact with more impact. Since making the jump to Triple-A, Frelick has posted some of the best contact rates in all of the Minor Leagues with a zone contact rate of 94% while still walking at a 12% clip.

Frelick sprays the ball all over the field, and is even a tough out with two strikes, somehow hitting .278 in two strike counts.

While power will never be a part of Frelick’s game, he can hit the ball with some authority to his pull side when he gets the right pitch. There’s potentially 10-15 homers in the tank for Frelick, especially if he calls Milwaukee home when he breaks into the big leagues.

It’s a delicate balance for Frelick, who does hit the ball on the ground a lot (51% GB rate), but also racks up so many hits by slapping the ball on the ground and using his wheels. When Frelick is at his best, he is smacking line drives to either gap while resorting to more of the “put the ball in play” approach with two strikes.

Elite contact rates and a knack for getting on base give Frelick a high floor with enough impact to rack up plenty of extra base hits.

 

 A virtual guarantee to stay in center field with a hit tool that is trending towards a 70 grade, Frelick is a throwback player who will have Steven Kwan lovers seeing double, but with a bit more exciting tools.

 

How did Kwan put up 5.5 WAR last year? He hits for less power and is a worse fielder?

 

[Eye Black]

I’ve been intrigued by Abraham Toro for awhile, a switch hitter with a low strikeout rate that put up very impressive wRC+ numbers throughout his minor league career. For whatever reason things haven’t clicked yet in the majors, but he turns 26 years old next month which is often the age MLB hitters take a step forward. Also, it’s worth remembering that switch hitters take longer to adjust and develop at the highest level since they’re dividing plate opportunities across two different swings. Add the fact that he can fill the utility role, and it makes sense why he would be a Brewers target. 

[Eye Black]

14 hours ago, DoubleSwitch said:

People also need to accept that Frelicks lack of power is a concern. Big league defenses are better and you can't slap singles and run out grounders like you can in the minors. Frelick propped up his average with that. I think he's a nice prospect, but he's no sure thing.

I am not among the highest on Sal Frelick, but I actually think his skill set pairs very well with a style of play that’s going to be coveted in MLB over the next decade. I am hopeful the recent rules changes increase the value and impact of players like Frelick. If he can get on base and cause havoc from there he will be an asset to the top of the Brewers lineup. 

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

This is really important for this club - and something not really mentioned. While Yelich isn't very good, Mitchell, Frelick, Ruiz and Taylor could really be special. Add in Turang at 2B - and that's a lot of speed and quality glove work added to the lineup. 

I love the defensive upgrades. I this is an ELITE lineup vs right handed pitchers. 

But we are absolutely brutal at this point vs lefties. We need to bring in at least 1 or 2 guys who can be the weak side of the platoon.

I'm great with banking on Turang, Frelick...little less so with Mitchell, but his defense and his speed lower his floor. 

But are we going to be counting on Ruiz, Wiemer, Perkins, somebody at catcher who can hit lefties? Because we were bad last year and as I pointed out, we're losing 3 of our top 4 hitters vs lefties, including the only guy who had an OPS over ~.750 vs lefties in Renfroe. 

 

Winkler is a great bet on a bounce back. I did see one comment that made me scratch my head. That Winkler takes Renfroe's place as the clubhouse douche now? Never heard anyone say anything negative about Renfroe, but...whatever. 

If the Brewers can get lucky and Ruiz and Wiemer are ready and can hit lefties or just we as a team somehow find out a way to get better vs lefties, with the young players, speed, the contact, maybe Toro helps vs lefties and fulfills his potential as well. If those things happen, I could see us getting back to the 95-100 win team we were in '21. 

But those are some pretty big risks. 

 

The Yankees are looking to dump Josh Donaldson...who definitely IS a clown. And also very near the end. But they're reportedly willing to eat most of the contract in order to move him. I wonder if that's something we may consider? He wasn't good last year, but if the Yankees are eating 12M, he could get time at 1B/3B, Urias could kick over to 2B vs lefties or he's just a DH/1B? Still got plenty of glove for 1B. Just a thought if it's a very low risk deal in which the Yanks are looking to move a guy for a lotto ticket type return to open up 3B. 

[MrTPlush]

6 hours ago, MNBrew said:

However, I was SO tired of him so rarely being a clutch hitter.   his defense.  But I don't think he was particularly special for the Brewers.

.939 OPS last year in high leverage situations…what more do you want?

[Devinep]

26 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I love the defensive upgrades. I this is an ELITE lineup vs right handed pitchers. 

But we are absolutely brutal at this point vs lefties. We need to bring in at least 1 or 2 guys who can be the weak side of the platoon.

I'm great with banking on Turang, Frelick...little less so with Mitchell, but his defense and his speed lower his floor. 

But are we going to be counting on Ruiz, Wiemer, Perkins, somebody at catcher who can hit lefties? Because we were bad last year and as I pointed out, we're losing 3 of our top 4 hitters vs lefties, including the only guy who had an OPS over ~.750 vs lefties in Renfroe. 

 

Winkler is a great bet on a bounce back. I did see one comment that made me scratch my head. That Winkler takes Renfroe's place as the clubhouse douche now? Never heard anyone say anything negative about Renfroe, but...whatever. 

If the Brewers can get lucky and Ruiz and Wiemer are ready and can hit lefties or just we as a team somehow find out a way to get better vs lefties, with the young players, speed, the contact, maybe Toro helps vs lefties and fulfills his potential as well. If those things happen, I could see us getting back to the 95-100 win team we were in '21. 

But those are some pretty big risks. 

 

The Yankees are looking to dump Josh Donaldson...who definitely IS a clown. And also very near the end. But they're reportedly willing to eat most of the contract in order to move him. I wonder if that's something we may consider? He wasn't good last year, but if the Yankees are eating 12M, he could get time at 1B/3B, Urias could kick over to 2B vs lefties or he's just a DH/1B? Still got plenty of glove for 1B. Just a thought if it's a very low risk deal in which the Yanks are looking to move a guy for a lotto ticket type return to open up 3B. 

I’d rather just sign Justin Turner, who is basically the same player but with more recent success

[UpandIn]

2 minutes ago, Devinep said:

I’d rather just sign Justin Turner, who is basically the same player but with more recent success

I don't have a problem with that, but just to play devils advocate;

Turner is likely going to get 10-15M a year...even if it's just a year or two...I also still don't see him leaving LA. So not sure he's a real option. 

Also, looking a little more at Donaldson's defensive metrics, he was +6 OAA last year at 3rd, Turner was -2 and Turner has reverse splits(still hit lefties more than well enough to be a good fit). 

Now...IF the Yankees are looking to move off Donaldson and eat most of the deal, I think that might be a better or at least more realistic option. You would be hoping for a offensive bounce back from him, but he's just a year removed from a .943 OPS vs LHPing.