Three-way trade with A's, Braves; Brewers get William Contreras

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

23 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Brewers so cheap they couldn't even hook the man up with a current hat....had to dig one out of the clearance bin in the back of the team store. 😅

 

Spring Training CANNOT come soon enough LOL

[MrTPlush]

2 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

Do we know the Brewers sent him the old hat? Couldn't it just be that he bought it, or maybe got it as a gift? Maybe he likes the original ball and glove logo? Not sure what the fuss is about, I think it's cool he got geared up and shared a post with it.

I mean...clearly a joke aimed at the people that think the Brewers are cheapos....jesh

I am sure he got it some random way as I am guessing he is in Venezuela these days. It is just a tad funny. 

[JosephC]

On 12/29/2022 at 3:06 PM, rickh150 said:

23-1 mill   24-3 mill   25-5 mill  26- 7 mill   27-10 mil   28-14 mil     (Ages 25-29).., seems high; almost would be better to go thru arby. 
Then again…

Realmuto signed a 5 year 115mil deal for ages 30-34

Murphy 6 yr  73 mill for ages 7th year club option for 15 mill (ages 28-33)

Contreras has two pre-arbitration years left, which makes a huge difference.  I don't think the experts project him to do what his brother has done, but let's assign him the same arbitration figures that Willson received (using the logic that lower figures from a slightly lesser performance is offset by baseball inflation).

William is currently at 1 year + 109 days...the 109 days being key because it means there is pretty much no chance that he will be Super 2 eligible.

So assuming the above, his salaries over the next 5 years would be-

2023 = ~0.80 million

2024 = ~0.90 million

2025 = 4.5 million

2026 = 6.65 million

2027 = 9.625 million

Total - 22.475 million

So a 6 year, 40 million dollar deal would likely buy out 1 year of free agency at 17.525 million.  His brother's deal with St. Louis is basically an 18 million dollar/year deal.  So the Brewers get no discount while guaranteeing him 6 years of salaries.

I don't think taking 80% of "reasonable market value" is a bad deal for the player.  In this case, it potentially costs William 8 million dollars, but the trade-off is he would get 32 million guaranteed, that protects him against injury or poor performance and is about 26 times more money than he's made so far in his MLB career.

Something like this seems reasonable for both sides, if one expects him to perform at a level "just under" what Willson has done.

2023 = 1.5 million

2024 = 2.5 million

2025 = 5 million

2026 = 6.5 million

2027 = 7.5 million

2028 = 9 million

6 years, 32 million

[CheezWizHed]

14 hours ago, rickh150 said:

It’s the old and original ball and glove ( and yes, bat) logo that he is wearing. It is not current. The team does not play games anymore with that logo.

yes, thanks.  We realize it isn't current.  That doesn't change that it is still the best logo.

[rickh150]

14 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

Do we know the Brewers sent him the old hat? Couldn't it just be that he bought it, or maybe got it as a gift? Maybe he likes the original ball and glove logo? Not sure what the fuss is about, I think it's cool he got geared up and shared a post with it.

Where is the fuss? I don’t care…just being accurate. There is a “new” ball and glove logo.

[nate82]

16 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

Do we know the Brewers sent him the old hat? Couldn't it just be that he bought it, or maybe got it as a gift? Maybe he likes the original ball and glove logo? Not sure what the fuss is about, I think it's cool he got geared up and shared a post with it.

The hat matches the shirt that is all that it is. 

[MVP2110]

 

 

[kestrel79]

How has Ruiz been doing for the A's?

[wiguy94]

Just now, kestrel79 said:

How has Ruiz been doing for the A's?

Slashing .219/.324/.313 for a 92 wRC+ with 1 SB and slightly above average CF defense. On pace for about a 1.5 fWAR season in 550 PA

[tmwiese55]

Contreras hasn't been on fire or anything but generally he's been fine and looks fine.   I still don't get what Atl thought of him to choose to add more to him in a trade in order to acquire a different catcher and the right to pay him 75 mil over the next 6 years instead of just keeping Contreras on his young cheap years.  They're one of the smartest organizations there is so I'm worried there's a shoe to drop, but even the best sometimes make a mistake. 

[MrTPlush]

I ponder what having elite starters does to benefit a guy in the pitch framing world. On one hand the pitches are nastier and would lead you to believe they are harder to frame for calls...but on the other hand a feel like the nasty breaking makes it more believable that a ball is being caught out of the strike zone. Maybe why it feels like elite starters always seem to get calls.

For instance, that first pitch isn't really framed all that well. However, Peralta's arm angle and the wicked break on that pitch you wouldn't expect the catcher to be catching that anywhere near over the plate.

The third pitch is pretty textbook modern framing though. Pretty popular for catchers to swipe their glove through the zone while catching the ball these days. What he did on the first pitch used to be pretty effective, but not so as much anymore. Probably because umps assume you are trying to deceive them versus 'helping them'. 

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I ponder what having elite starters does to benefit a guy in the pitch framing world.

Having pitchers that are consistently around the zone helps as it increases opportunities. The reputation of the pitcher on the mound certainly plays a role too.

At the same time, Lucroy broke all the framing record posting +146 FRM from 2010-14 with the closest thing to an elite starter in that stretch being a season and a half of Greinke.

[Jake McKibbin]

The speed of his hands in recieving those pitches is crazy!

Through the minors his slash line looked a little like it does now, he pounds the ball but a little often into the ground. Either that or his recieving worried them, Murphy provides a lot more security

Ruiz has been meh so far, batting 9th with a couple of nice plays in CF but I'm fairly convinced the A's would've been better just taking Contreras. Glad we've got him 

 

 

[StearnsFTW]

2 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Contreras hasn't been on fire or anything but generally he's been fine and looks fine.   I still don't get what Atl thought of him to choose to add more to him in a trade in order to acquire a different catcher and the right to pay him 75 mil over the next 6 years instead of just keeping Contreras on his young cheap years.  They're one of the smartest organizations there is so I'm worried there's a shoe to drop, but even the best sometimes make a mistake. 

 

Agree on Contreras, but I think that Murphy deal is absolutely fantastic for the Braves.

 

In a theoretical world, if the Braves called up and offered Murphy for Contreras I'd say yes and hang up before they changed their minds.

 

[tmwiese55]

30 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

 

Agree on Contreras, but I think that Murphy deal is absolutely fantastic for the Braves.

 

In a theoretical world, if the Braves called up and offered Murphy for Contreras I'd say yes and hang up before they changed their minds.

 

I understand he's supposed to be great at D and all those things for a C.  However, in two full years he hit 216/306 with 17 and 250/332 with 18 HRs.  That is perfectly fine for a C, but it's nothing fantastic like prime Posey, Perez, etc.  And those were his age 26 and 27 years after two years getting his feet wet.   Contreras already has had a better offensive year in his first year at age 24 (one year of feet wet before.).    Unless I think something is up with Contreras and his hitting was fluky, bad at D, attitude/effort problem, etc there's no way I'm giving up his cheap years to pay the other guy over 10 mil per year for his years into the 30s as a C unless I have unlimited money like LA/NYY. 

Atlanta is as smart as they come so that's why I wonder what they didn't like about Contreras. Hopefully they're wrong as we haven't heard any red flags yet (other than who he's brothers with haha).

[sveumrules]

20 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

I understand he's supposed to be great at D and all those things for a C.  However, in two full years he hit 216/306 with 17 and 250/332 with 18 HRs.  That is perfectly fine for a C, but it's nothing fantastic like prime Posey, Perez, etc.  And those were his age 26 and 27 years after two years getting his feet wet.   Contreras already has had a better offensive year in his first year at age 24 (one year of feet wet before.).    Unless I think something is up with Contreras and his hitting was fluky, bad at D, attitude/effort problem, etc there's no way I'm giving up his cheap years to pay the other guy over 10 mil per year for his years into the 30s as a C unless I have unlimited money like LA/NYY. 

Atlanta is as smart as they come so that's why I wonder what they didn't like about Contreras. Hopefully they're wrong as we haven't heard any red flags yet (other than who he's brothers with haha).

Raw numbers don’t do Murphy’s offense justice since OAK is one of the toughest hitters parks in MLB.

Since debuting his 117 wRC+ has only been bettered by Will Smith (134), Sal Perez (123) and Willson Contreras (119) among qualified catchers.

He has also graded out positive by DRS (+11) and framing (+18.7) for his career.

Add it all up and only JTR (12.8) and Smith (10.4) have topped Murphy’s 10.2 WAR since 2020.

Contreras has a 120 wRC+ over 603 career plate appearances, so he has only been about 3% better with the bat than Murphy, and also has much more uncertainty around his future performance since he has less than half of Sean’s sample size to this point.

William’s defense (-9 DRS | -6.8 framing) has also graded out negatively in his brief career.

The Braves likely preferred Murphy (even at a higher price point) because he is a better catcher with much more certainty around his future performance.

[tmwiese55]

Yea and those still aren't anything ridiculous like elite hitter Cs.  Yes he's more of sure thing, that's the value.  Again, 10+ mil per into his 30s over someone on the cheapest years.  And there is risk of future value issues in that you're now commited to him into his age 32-34 years, not great for catchers.   Having a good hitting 24 year old catcher is kind of the dream, especially when you're already paying a kind of aging vet as the other C.   And then they also had to add in value to the trade.  To me, aggressively trying to upgrade him is a flag of what caused Atl to do it. 

They should have been one of the last teams looking to trade for a proven C.  Already had a proven vet off a good year, signed for two more years and a 25 year old good hitter on league min contract.  Hoping to be wrong. 

[StearnsFTW]

Bottom line for me is that $12.5MM/year is damn cheap for a top-shelf Catcher.

 

 

[tmwiese55]

I don't know, that's probably 4-5 highest after Realmuto, Perez, Grandal, Contreras.   And while I'm not trying to say the guy is bad, he hit .216 two seasons ago and you're having to pay him that into this 30s, when Cs usually fall off.

But really it's besides the point. It's not cheap when compared to the a 25 year old at league min on your roster already who is top shelf too.   Unless, you don't think he's top-shelf. Which is my whole point, they must not.    If this was Pitt or Colorado I wouldn't give it a second thought, I'd laugh at how dumb they are. Being Atl, it makes me go hmm, what might we be missing.

[StearnsFTW]

2 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

I don't know, that's probably 4-5 highest after Realmuto, Perez, Grandal, Contreras.   And while I'm not trying to say the guy is bad, he hit .216 two seasons ago and you're having to pay him that into this 30s, when Cs usually fall off.

But really it's besides the point. It's not cheap when compared to the a 25 year old at league min on your roster already who is top shelf too.   Unless, you don't think he's top-shelf. Which is my whole point, they must not.    If this was Pitt or Colorado I wouldn't give it a second thought, I'd laugh at how dumb they are. Being Atl, it makes me go hmm, what might we be missing.

I think it is 4-5th highest.

 

I also think he's the 2nd best catcher in baseball if not the best.

 

[brewcrewdue80]

15 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

I don't know, that's probably 4-5 highest after Realmuto, Perez, Grandal, Contreras.   And while I'm not trying to say the guy is bad, he hit .216 two seasons ago and you're having to pay him that into this 30s, when Cs usually fall off.

But really it's besides the point. It's not cheap when compared to the a 25 year old at league min on your roster already who is top shelf too.   Unless, you don't think he's top-shelf. Which is my whole point, they must not.    If this was Pitt or Colorado I wouldn't give it a second thought, I'd laugh at how dumb they are. Being Atl, it makes me go hmm, what might we be missing.

Cruise over to Savant. Atlanta may been concerned with Contreras k rate. Or defense behind the plate. Pop times to 2b and 3b he ranked 31st and 21st.  Murphy ranked 2nd and 1st. With the new larger bases they've got a tick better C to protect from thievery.  Contreras sat at 14pct last season in caught stealing while Murphy was at 31pct. Murphy's batting lines showed improvement like a breakout. I think Atlanta may have just wanted to jump ahead on the breakout with top tier defense.

Meanwhile that 14pct caught stealing was after a greater amount of runners caught stealing the season before 10 in 27 vs 6 in 36. 

It's not working out that way thus far this season, but it's 11games. 

What if it was just a move to block Murphy from going to the Mets? Or some team they didn't want Murphy on?  They controlled who Contreras went to and made sure the Murphy sweepstakes was theirs. 

Either way Brewers were in desperate need of a Catcher while grooming Quero. 2 years of Contreras and moving on with potentially a sell high is as good as it can get. One of those gifts that keep on coming when it's a solid return.

[MrTPlush]

What the Braves wanted why they did it was simple. Contreras and Murphy both looked good offensively, but Murphy also grades out as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. They want to win now while their core is going through their prime. They probably figured Murphy would be better for the pitching staff too. 

As good as his pitching framing seemingly is so far, Contreras made two little league errors in the same game (now 3 errors in 69 innings). Overthrowing 2B and catcher's interference. The front office gets a lot of credit for seemingly planning for some of these new rules the past few years, but I can't say a 14% caught stealing catcher was a good recipe for success with bigger bases. 

That isn't to say this move won't work out incredibly well for the Brewers...just why the Braves decided to sell high on Contreras. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Listening to game today and I overhear Contreras and 12 game hit streak.  Hadnt realized he had this streak going.   Then I wondered about Narvaez and what his highest hitting streak was with Milwaukee.  Try 9 games! 11 games was Narvaez' longest on base streak!  15 games in to the Brewers season and William has tied Narvaez' longest on base streak with the 11 game hitting streak.  We've yet to enjoy a HR from him which already exceeds his longest drought last season without one.  

6 bb to 9 ks on season and 0 ks today vs Darvish.  Really getting great abs from him.  No matter what Ruiz does, this is a winning trade for the Brewers already.  

[kestrel79]

Yep he's looked good, and his D has been better than advertised. The coaching staff must be really good with catchers.

[YelichPosse]

7 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

Yep he's looked good, and his D has been better than advertised. The coaching staff must be really good with catchers.

It’s been said, and I’m a believer In it that Charlie Greene is some sort of guru with these guys who are suspect defensively, come here, and are at least decent, if not noticeably good! Small market teams obviously have to do little things like that well (pitching lab, catching lab etc) to make up for not being able to get the most expensive or obvious toys. The Brewers have consistently done this really well.