Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Not lately.  Their season stats are skewed because they only gave up a total of 12 pressures their first two games (6 per game).  Then no Bakh, no Jenkins, Tom injured a knee, Runyan injured an ankle, and they've given up 42 pressures (14 per game) over their last three games.

 

Tom has actually given up more pressures than Walker.  Over the last two games Tom has given up 10 pressures and Walker 8.  Crosby lined up quite a bit across from Tom; on one of his pressures he lined up across from Tom and then stunted all the way around to LG. 

Through week 3, Walker had given up zero pressures on true pass sets.  That was after practicing most of the week prior to the Falcons game as the jumbo TE and not knowing until the evening before the Falcons game that he would be playing LT.  It's just the last two games where he struggled.

No, the OL has not been fine, it's been bad. 

If I was to point to one particular starter who's been bad, without All-22 or anything else, it's Myers. He's the one who just looks lost. Newman of course was even worse, but he's not a starter.

Walker hasn't been a turnstyle, but I'd argue when he DOES get beaten, he's beaten worse. Tom will get beaten on a bullrush and get walked back into Love's lap, but he has that Bakhtiari-esque ability to maintain his balance and at least give Love a chance. Walker will get beat inside and he gets beat more cleanly.

 

I still think we've got something in Walker, but the thing you had when Bakhtiari was good, was at least one absolute rock on the OL where you could slide your protection away from him and leave him, even vs elite edge rushers, one on one. When you don't have that and you have to chip more or just help more, you're starting off at a disadvantage. 

Ideally, you could go and get a LT in Alt in the 1st round and then package your 2nd rd picks and move back into the 1st for a guy like Mims. I know people are more in favor of trading back, but we'll have 10 or 11 more picks this year? I think you go quality over quantity when your issues are so clear at one position of need. That'd allow Tom to settle in at Center and Walker could play RG and you have a more physical, more athletic OL that's more balanced in it's pass pro and it's run blocking. And if there's ever a year to do that, it'd be this year. And obviously those are just the two names of players who are in the top ~10-15 range and then in the ~25 range at the moment, I'm sure that'll change come draft time. 

 

Who knows who the Packers will value, but we know they didn't have a 1st round grade on Broderick Jones this year...and he had an outstanding 1st start for the Steelers this week. Also, I'm sure people will point out that Bakh was a 4th rd pick and we find OL in the later rounds. This is true, but not something I'd count on when looking at the future of our OL. 

[BrewerFan]

On 10/11/2023 at 11:24 AM, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Their run game doesn't exist but there are minimal opportunities for him to go down field as well. Combination of passive playcalling, having to leave extra guys in to block and Love missing when they try.  When your TE and RB both chip the edge rusher that is two guys either not on a route or requiring an extra second to do so. 

It sounds crazy at 2-3, but honestly they aren't going to win anything this year so I'd almost prefer they just prioritize trying to figure out what Love can do, and find a downfield offense above winning. They need to get Love and all those young WRs going.

Not even a little crazy to me. That's been the priority...IMO, all year. It was great watching him perform well early on...but just as we should keep in mind the OL is not performing well, we should also consider who we've played or beaten. One team that's got a good front in Det and even that's not great. It has one really exceptional player and just solid depth.

But ATL, Nola, Chicago and LV. 

That's not all that impressive. I'd give Love this year and next and as I've said in my previous post, the top priority has to be the OL, but above all that, a fair and honest evaluation of Love.

 

He looks to me like he's going to be the answer. Couldn't have walked the ball to Watson any better, but it was tight coverage. But then you have the 1st pick where he threw into a triangle of Raiders defenders(probably a pick even if Spillane doesn't get it). And then the one to Watson...that one hurts because I think Love puts that on Watson, but he had to move in the pocket to avoid the pressure and just came back to him too late.

 

But ultimately the only thing that's clear is that we don't have clarity yet on our QB of the future. Being capable of making throws and reliably and consistently making them are not the same. 

[BrewerFan]

RUMOR-

Panthers have called to check on the availability of Christian Watson

Hypothetically, WHAT if you could get the Panthers '25 1st rd pick for Watson? Do you make that deal?

Given the absolute disaster that the Panthers appear to be at the moment...it's a huge risk, but they are going nowhere fast. It'd be easy to envision that '25 pick being a top ~5 pick.

I love Watson, but as the Packers are in a BIT of a rebuild, that could come in extremely handy. It could also...maybe, possibly give them an out where they would be able to use that pick to trade down even a year later into the Arch Manning draft and have a couple premium picks there.

 

I know this is such an distant concept and a million things could happen(and they're NOT specifically offering anything in particular at this time), I just thought it was worth asking. 

I'm not trading him for a 2nd, even if it's the 1st 2nd rd pick in this years draft, but a future 1st? I think I might have to take that and trust the rest of the Packers WRers. It also seems like the type of move a really forward thinking team that isn't sure if they've got their QB of the future just might make. 

 

I'll assume I'll get a resounding 'No' on this and I understand, but a team that bad, it warrants consideration. 

[LouisEly]

Watson missed three games last year and has already missed three games this year.  He's had trouble staying healthy and being available.  He's used up 1 1/3rd years of team control.  Given both, I'd take Carolina's 2nd round pick in 2024, which could very well be the 1st pick in the 2nd round, and a conditional pick in 2024/2025 based on games played the rest of the season that could be as high as a 3rd if he plays every game.

With three 2nd round picks next year they have some ammo to move up to get that franchise LT you want and still be able to find a WR to replace Watson and the safety they desperately need.

[MrTPlush]

The Panters top pick? Yah, I would be laughing all the way to the 2024 draft if they offered that up. I don't think it ends up the #1 pick...but it could and even worst case is probably Top 5. 

Even ignoring the injuries, Watson doesn't wow me that much. For 6'4" the dude plays like he is 5'10"...doesn't use his size to his advantage very often. Dude couldn't even muster an attempt at Love's jump ball to end the game. Speed is nice, but that is a limiting ceiling if he can't improve other parts of his game.

He has plenty of time to improve, he is very young...but a potential Top 5 pick? I wouldn't even have to contemplate it. 

[madbad2000]

3 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

The Panters top pick? Yah, I would be laughing all the way to the 2024 draft if they offered that up. I don't think it ends up the #1 pick...but it could and even worst case is probably Top 5. 

Even ignoring the injuries, Watson doesn't wow me that much. For 6'4" the dude plays like he is 5'10"...doesn't use his size to his advantage very often. Dude couldn't even muster an attempt at Love's jump ball to end the game. Speed is nice, but that is a limiting ceiling if he can't improve other parts of his game.

He has plenty of time to improve, he is very young...but a potential Top 5 pick? I wouldn't even have to contemplate it. 

Carolinas #1 in 2024 belongs to Chicago thanks to the Bryce Young trade.  So either #2 in 2024 or #1 in 2025 are your top options. 

[nate82]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

The Panters top pick? Yah, I would be laughing all the way to the 2024 draft if they offered that up. I don't think it ends up the #1 pick...but it could and even worst case is probably Top 5. 

Even ignoring the injuries, Watson doesn't wow me that much. For 6'4" the dude plays like he is 5'10"...doesn't use his size to his advantage very often. Dude couldn't even muster an attempt at Love's jump ball to end the game. Speed is nice, but that is a limiting ceiling if he can't improve other parts of his game.

He has plenty of time to improve, he is very young...but a potential Top 5 pick? I wouldn't even have to contemplate it. 

ummm you do know the Bears own the Panthers #1 pick in 2024 right?

[CheezWizHed]

Noting that the OP was speculating a 2025 1st round pick.

A 2025 1st rounder is essentially equivalent to a 2024 2nd round pick value wise and waiting another year.  That isn't exactly true for a high (top 5; maybe top 10) pick, so I guess it depends on what you think about Carolina's chances in 2024.

I do love Watson and his physical capabilities are very evident.  But he is far from a complete WR also.  Not to mention the injury issues.  I wouldn't trade him straight up for a 2024 second rounder.  But something mid to late round 2024 (equivalent), I'd probably go for.  

The real question would be "why would Carolina do that?"  Do they really see someone that is a 1st round equivalent WR in him and a "must have" now?  They wouldn't have two straight years of 1st round picks either. 

[MrTPlush]

5 hours ago, nate82 said:

ummm you do know the Bears own the Panthers #1 pick in 2024 right?

In that case I hope they go undefeated.

Not sure I would run to trade him for their 2nd, but their 1st rounder in ‘25? Yah…I’d take that easily. Almost surely Top 15 and maybe way higher. I get the logic of picks in the future are worth less…but we very well may not have a QB yet, so we may prefer a guy one year younger in tue long run.

 

[nate82]

2 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

but we very well may not have a QB yet,

Packers tank for Manning in '27? I think that is when he is available to be drafted.

[BrewerFan]

On 10/13/2023 at 12:51 PM, CheezWizHed said:

Noting that the OP was speculating a 2025 1st round pick.

A 2025 1st rounder is essentially equivalent to a 2024 2nd round pick value wise and waiting another year.  That isn't exactly true for a high (top 5; maybe top 10) pick, so I guess it depends on what you think about Carolina's chances in 2024.

I do love Watson and his physical capabilities are very evident.  But he is far from a complete WR also.  Not to mention the injury issues.  I wouldn't trade him straight up for a 2024 second rounder.  But something mid to late round 2024 (equivalent), I'd probably go for.  

The real question would be "why would Carolina do that?"  Do they really see someone that is a 1st round equivalent WR in him and a "must have" now?  They wouldn't have two straight years of 1st round picks either. 

I don't know why or if Carolina would do that. Maybe they think a big WRer for their struggling young QB would help him.

I was more just curious what the opinions would be on taking a pick 2 years down the road for our most explosive offensive player who has been limited by injury, a limited route tree and if he figures it out, by the time the 2025 draft comes, you'll be paying him whatever a good WRer goes for at that point, or you'll have a freak athlete who's unreliable due to injury and inconsistent hands. 

I think Watson will figure it out. I think he came from just about the worst school to develop WRers, but that's the risk/reward. 

Generally a first another year out is equal to a 2nd in this current draft, but when you're as bad as Carolina is, that's...probably not the case. 

[homer]

 

 

[bjkrautk]

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2023/10/17/one-big-reason-why-jordan-loves-completion-percentage-is-so-low/

Interesting article, breaking down Love's performance relative to down and distance.  He's a 60+% passer when ahead of the chains.

• On 1st-and-10, a completely neutral passing situation, Love is completing 65.4 percent of passes (34/52).
• On 2nd-and-7 or longer, Love has completed 13 of 33 passes (39.4 percent).
• On 3rd-and-7 or longer, Love has completed 14 of 30 passes (46.7 percent).
• In any game situation other than 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long, Love is completing 63.6 percent of his passes.

To be succinct about it, the problem with Love's passing game is that the offense doesn't seem to be able to run the ball (without Aaron Jones in the lineup).  Small samples and confirmation bias to-be-certain, but I'd be curious to see how that compares to other QBs in the league.

[Fear The Chorizo]

57 minutes ago, homer said:

 

 

When is the trade deadline again?  Wondering if this adds smoke to any Aaron Jones trade rumors...there are several AFC North teams that make alot of sense

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

When is the trade deadline again?  Wondering if this adds smoke to any Aaron Jones trade rumors...there are several AFC North teams that make alot of sense

I haven't seen any Jones trade rumors. Everytime we speculate about him leaving(FA) or being traded or cut he takes less money to play in GB. 

I don't think the savings is enough to want to try and trade him. You save minimal money with his cut in base salary this year and next year you save ~5.3 if you cut him or trade him. Again, obviously the cap hit isn't the important number as more of that is already built in, it's the dead cap. 

 

What is the value of losing your best offensive player AND a dude who's entering Donald Driver type territory as a loyal and believed player? What do you think we're getting for him at this point? He's 29...the Bills would be one of the teams in most need of a back, maybe Miami, Baltimore. 

And what is the harm to Love if we do this?

It'd better be at least a 3rd and I don't really think that's what we're getting.

 

James Robinson was a good back in 2020 and nothing much sense. Give me Emanuel Wilson over Robinson or Dillon at this point. There must be a problem with his pass pro or something. His running is just better than Taylor or Dillon. 

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, bjkrautk said:

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2023/10/17/one-big-reason-why-jordan-loves-completion-percentage-is-so-low/

Interesting article, breaking down Love's performance relative to down and distance.  He's a 60+% passer when ahead of the chains.

• On 1st-and-10, a completely neutral passing situation, Love is completing 65.4 percent of passes (34/52).
• On 2nd-and-7 or longer, Love has completed 13 of 33 passes (39.4 percent).
• On 3rd-and-7 or longer, Love has completed 14 of 30 passes (46.7 percent).
• In any game situation other than 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long, Love is completing 63.6 percent of his passes.

To be succinct about it, the problem with Love's passing game is that the offense doesn't seem to be able to run the ball (without Aaron Jones in the lineup).  Small samples and confirmation bias to-be-certain, but I'd be curious to see how that compares to other QBs in the league.

I think it's really just an issue of a bad OL and a young/inexperienced QB. 

I'd also guess this is pretty common. 

Breaking all this down is helpful, but my concern with Love at this point, we have played 1 defense that I think is a good defense(Det) and even that is hardly elite and so I think we should weigh that vs what has been a solid start( a really good start before the 3 INT LV game). 

I think he's shown enough to get another year if the season ended today. I guess if we're really struggling the rest of the year maybe we find ourselves in a position to move up for a Drake Maye, but...that seems unlikely. There are too many other teams that are far, far worse than us. Denver, Chi(Car), AZ, NYG, NE. And we've still got a pretty easy schedule. This Denver game may actually be a big one for draft position(not that I'm rooting for that at this point, just an observation. 

[LouisEly]

12 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

James Robinson was a good back in 2020 and nothing much sense. Give me Emanuel Wilson over Robinson or Dillon at this point. There must be a problem with his pass pro or something. His running is just better than Taylor or Dillon.

He was a better runner than Taylor or Dillon... until he ruptured his Achilles tendon in 2021.  Has been rather pedestrian since. 

[CheezWizHed]

On 10/17/2023 at 3:09 PM, bjkrautk said:

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2023/10/17/one-big-reason-why-jordan-loves-completion-percentage-is-so-low/

Interesting article, breaking down Love's performance relative to down and distance.  He's a 60+% passer when ahead of the chains.

• On 1st-and-10, a completely neutral passing situation, Love is completing 65.4 percent of passes (34/52).
• On 2nd-and-7 or longer, Love has completed 13 of 33 passes (39.4 percent).
• On 3rd-and-7 or longer, Love has completed 14 of 30 passes (46.7 percent).
• In any game situation other than 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long, Love is completing 63.6 percent of his passes.

To be succinct about it, the problem with Love's passing game is that the offense doesn't seem to be able to run the ball (without Aaron Jones in the lineup).  Small samples and confirmation bias to-be-certain, but I'd be curious to see how that compares to other QBs in the league.

Or he simply isn't accurate as a QB? Yes, a comparison with other NFL QBs would be great. Every other QB in the league has a better completion percentage.  I doubt it is because they are all throwing from favorable conditions.  

[GAME05]

Carolina turned down two first-rounders from the Rams for Burnes, but I think they've realized they should have accepted it and gotten Young more help. If the Packers traded Watson, and I really don't see any reason they'd do so, I'm sure the return would come from whatever they'd get for Burnes. Not to say that Watson is a superstar or anything, but I think we're really overestimating our remaining guys to think we could get by fine without Watson.

Really crossing my fingers for Joe Alt next year but I get the feeling he won't last until we pick.

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, GAME05 said:

Really crossing my fingers for Joe Alt next year but I get the feeling he won't last until we pick.

Right now the Packers are sitting at #10 overall.  It's unlikely that the Cardinals (Paris Johnson), Raiders (Kolton Miller) or Giants (Andrew Thomas, Evan Neal) will be in the market for a LT that high, maybe the Colts too depending on what they think of Raimann and maybe the Bears (Darnell Wright, Teven Jenkins).  To move 3 spots up to the Colts pick would cost a 3rd round pick.  To move up two spots to the Raiders pick would cost a 4th plus a pick swap somewhere. 

The Packers could drop to #18 and probably still be able to use their 2nd round pick to move up to #7 (according to the Rich Hill chart).  Between Alt, Fashanu, Guyton, Suamataia, there should be a really good LT available for them.

[BrewerFan]

23 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Right now the Packers are sitting at #10 overall.  It's unlikely that the Cardinals (Paris Johnson), Raiders (Kolton Miller) or Giants (Andrew Thomas, Evan Neal) will be in the market for a LT that high, maybe the Colts too depending on what they think of Raimann and maybe the Bears (Darnell Wright, Teven Jenkins).  To move 3 spots up to the Colts pick would cost a 3rd round pick.  To move up two spots to the Raiders pick would cost a 4th plus a pick swap somewhere. 

The Packers could drop to #18 and probably still be able to use their 2nd round pick to move up to #7 (according to the Rich Hill chart).  Between Alt, Fashanu, Guyton, Suamataia, there should be a really good LT available for them.

Mims as well.

I'd be absolutely fine with them using a 1st to go up and get Fashanu...IF by some miracle he were on the board at ~7. If not, Alt has looked so completely dominant. Watching him go up against OSU's edges was impressive and he's always getting up to the 2nd level.

And in the 2nd round...I don't think it's crazy to suggest they double down on OT. Maybe they get someone who's more of a RT. As of now that'd be a Mims type(IMO, though he's looked really good at LT and I think he'll move way up the board). Fuaga from OSU could be there in the 40s when he normally wouldn't be. THEN you can use Tom at Center where I think he's best suited and Walker at RG and you don't need to sign Runyan.

 

I'm sure some think that'd be overkill, but we all know what a great OL does for a team. 

 

The one guy who's in or ahead of pretty much everyone you listed in these mocks or rankings is JC Latham from Oak Creek(he went to IMG academy). I've watched him and I don't see him as a 1st rd pick. He looks like a RT...MAYBE Guard to me.

 

I suspect their actual draft will focus on a LT and I think moving up is entirely possible. After that I think a guy like Barton from Duke or Morgan from AZ are very Packer -like players in the 2nd-3rd rd. 

[HarryDoyle]

Looking at the schedule, I think Carolina is the only winnable game. Maybe the Giants, and that's a big maybe. Please just suck the rest of the season. I don't want another 8-9 finish where we have a middling first round pick and the same coaching staff.

[yourout]

7 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

Looking at the schedule, I think Carolina is the only winnable game. Maybe the Giants, and that's a big maybe. Please just suck the rest of the season. I don't want another 8-9 finish where we have a middling first round pick and the same coaching staff.

If your going to suck then make it worthwhile and really suck.

[yourout]

From a year ago but a pretty funny rant.

 

[adambr2]

What veteran could the Packers trade that would be worth anything that clearly isn't a part of our future?

It's a pretty short list, I'm not sure we have anyone of interest. 

Aaron Jones comes to mind but I doubt anyone gives more than a mid round pick with the hammy problems. Kenny Clark?