Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[yourout]

19 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

What veteran could the Packers trade that would be worth anything that clearly isn't a part of our future?

It's a pretty short list, I'm not sure we have anyone of interest. 

Aaron Jones comes to mind but I doubt anyone gives more than a mid round pick with the hammy problems. Kenny Clark?

The list of Vets they have that someone would want is pretty short.

The list of Vets they have that are healthy and someone would want is even shorter.

[LouisEly]

17 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

What veteran could the Packers trade that would be worth anything that clearly isn't a part of our future?

 

And would also fit under the salary cap.

Rasul Douglas - going into the game his PFF grade was 83.7.   His base salary is around $1M, so any team could take on his contract.  His 2023 dead cap would be $2.9M; Spotrac has the Packers at $7.7M cap space, Over The Cap has the Packers at $8.6M.  With Stokes coming back they may have depth at CB.

Preston Smith - not as good of a PFF grade, but everyone is looking for pass rushers and he also has a low salary ($1.1M) so any team could take him on.  Trade would count $4.6M in dead cap so they could probably fit a trade of him under the cap.

With both of them there wouldn't really be any savings towards the 2023 cap by trading them as they have such low salaries and would need to be replaced by someone making just a little bit less at the league minimum.  But they could probably only trade one of them and stay under the cap.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah this isn't MLB. There's no veteran they're trading for 5 picks. That was Rodgers 2 years ago. Anyone they pawn off will get a very underwhelming return for reasons already mentioned. 

They need to devote this year to development and put winning the games second. If I'm the coach, Love is throwing 40 passes next week and most weeks. I don't care if he finishes the year with a QBR in the 20s. Figure something out with those WRs or figure out that Love is awful and turn the page. 

MLF seems to prefer dying slowly, I like to rip the band-aid off. 

If you get any sort of progress then you can hope with a year of development and more added pieces, a few deals off the books, that things start trending up again. 

But step 1 is to abandon all hope of winning this year, stop the training wheel stuff. 

 

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

Looking at the schedule, I think Carolina is the only winnable game. Maybe the Giants, and that's a big maybe. Please just suck the rest of the season. I don't want another 8-9 finish where we have a middling first round pick and the same coaching staff.

Dude...we play the Bears again.

Winnable games are TB, NYG, Carolina, Chicago...Minnesota is not good, so that's two more.

We had an extremely weak schedule. It's getting a bit tougher, but the we play 3 teams who are picking ahead of us in the draft as of now.

 

But it's fine. I didn't care about Wins or Losses this year. I cared about Love's development. That took a hit with Bakh, but hey, there are two great OTs in this class and we can get one of them. Or hell, get 2 of them, move Tom to Tackle.

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Yeah this isn't MLB. There's no veteran they're trading for 5 picks. That was Rodgers 2 years ago. Anyone they pawn off will get a very underwhelming return for reasons already mentioned. 

They need to devote this year to development and put winning the games second. If I'm the coach, Love is throwing 40 passes next week and most weeks. I don't care if he finishes the year with a QBR in the 20s. Figure something out with those WRs or figure out that Love is awful and turn the page. 

MLF seems to prefer dying slowly, I like to rip the band-aid off. 

If you get any sort of progress then you can hope with a year of development and more added pieces, a few deals off the books, that things start trending up again. 

But step 1 is to abandon all hope of winning this year, stop the training wheel stuff. 

 

I don't think there have been a lot of training wheels. We can't run block so we're usually starting behind the sticks, Love is strangely more erratic on shorter throws than longer throws(relatively speaking) and we also can't pass block...but he's made some incredible throws.

I just want to see more consistency. It was so obvious early on he was an NFL QB when he had time and he was doing a good job going through his progression and then coming back and finding the 3rd/4th option...but he's got less time, Jones hasn't really been there.

 

They could trade Clark and get value for him. I don't know how much. Jaire...ya know, if you can get a 1st+, maybe you pull the trigger? Maybe he just can't hold up. 

Gary you might wanna figure out what he's going to take to re-sign(I suspect they know). You could a haul for him as well, but now you're really resetting. 

 

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, LouisEly said:

And would also fit under the salary cap.

Rasul Douglas - going into the game his PFF grade was 83.7.   His base salary is around $1M, so any team could take on his contract.  His 2023 dead cap would be $2.9M; Spotrac has the Packers at $7.7M cap space, Over The Cap has the Packers at $8.6M.  With Stokes coming back they may have depth at CB.

Preston Smith - not as good of a PFF grade, but everyone is looking for pass rushers and he also has a low salary ($1.1M) so any team could take him on.  Trade would count $4.6M in dead cap so they could probably fit a trade of him under the cap.

With both of them there wouldn't really be any savings towards the 2023 cap by trading them as they have such low salaries and would need to be replaced by someone making just a little bit less at the league minimum.  But they could probably only trade one of them and stay under the cap.

I think looking at the dead cap is looking at it the wrong way. You look at the cap savings. 

Kenny Clark is a guy you could move off and save ~2M but you'd have a big dead cap. 
Preston Smith is a savings of ~2.3
 

They could fit these all in. Preston Smith for instance, his dead cap is already part of what his actual cap hit is. So of course you can fit in a trade in which you're only paying part of his total cap hit.

Dead Cap=Sunk Costs

The only time you don't make a trade due to dead cap is when it's prohibitive...like if the Cards actually play Kyler Murray this year and he gets hurt. Then his contract would be way too expensive for them to cut this year(not trade though).

So it's not about dead cap(most of the time) it's about cap savings vs player value. 

You're also going to be taking on dead money in '24 with these guys.

So Kenny Clark for example, you each about 10M dead cap this year and next and you save ~2M this year and ~17M next year. I don't think that's worth it for a 6th round pick...for a 2nd...that may be worth it. He's playing better. 

It's effectively do you want to pay Clark 19M the next two years or trade him and save close to the same and get a pick? It'd depend on the trade.

 

The only player it'd cost us significant cap space are guys like Jenkins who we just gave a decent size signing bonus to. Pretty much everyone who's got the 3-4 void years would probably cost more vs the cap to trade(Savage, Nixon, Douglas) but it's minimal in those cases.
Jordan Love.

I don't think there's a lot of options though. We spent ~90M more on players contracts the last two years each than the cap allowed and this year we're paying players ~80M less than what the cap allows. It's the price. But next year there's quite a bit of daylight and the year after it's fine again. 

 

If there's a player it makes sense to trade...do it. Winning games at this point is only a real positive if it's because Love and the young skill players are getting in sync, but THIS is the year we suck it up and deal with our past spending.

Get a top 10 maybe a top 5 pick, give Love another year with an fixed OL and spend wisely moving forward. Should have ~40M in cap space next year in a worst case scenario(before Gary and expensive rookies). 

[MrTPlush]

12 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

Looking at the schedule, I think Carolina is the only winnable game. Maybe the Giants, and that's a big maybe. Please just suck the rest of the season. I don't want another 8-9 finish where we have a middling first round pick and the same coaching staff.

I mean, that is pretty dramatic. Most of their remaining games are winnable. Lions and Chiefs are the only two I would mark up as auto losses. The rest are pretty winnable...and also quite losable. 

[homer]

45 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I mean, that is pretty dramatic. Most of their remaining games are winnable. Lions and Chiefs are the only two I would mark up as auto losses. The rest are pretty winnable...and also quite losable. 

yeah it's not like they're getting blown out every game. They've a lot of one-score losses. They could easily beat anyone on their schedule except a few.

[yourout]

1 hour ago, homer said:

yeah it's not like they're getting blown out every game. They've a lot of one-score losses. They could easily beat anyone on their schedule except a few.

Just seems like they are getting weaker by the game with injuries and not improving overall while almost everyone else making at least moderate improvement.

I would not be the least bit surprised if the bears beat them in Lambeau.

[homer]

13 minutes ago, yourout said:

Just seems like they are getting weaker by the game with injuries and not improving overall while almost everyone else making at least moderate improvement.

I would not be the least bit surprised if the bears beat them in Lambeau.

Absolutely. They could lose every game from here on out. 

 

As an aside, I wonder what the Packers' record would be if they had a guy like Gardner Minshew or even Baker Mayfield as the starting QB? 

[homer]

 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

5 minutes ago, homer said:

 

 

Just absurd

[yourout]

1 hour ago, homer said:

Absolutely. They could lose every game from here on out. 

 

As an aside, I wonder what the Packers' record would be if they had a guy like Gardner Minshew or even Baker Mayfield as the starting QB? 

It would depend on how much freedom the QB had to make changes at the line and get them out of crappy plays.

[MrTPlush]

If we had a good enough game manager QB, I think we could have made the playoffs. It is kind of a miracle we are 2-4 and very well could be 4-2 or 5-1 if some luck would have broke our way. If you could minus Love and insert a decent game manager type QB...I think we are 4-2 right now and would win enough games to sneak in. A guy that can make accurate short throws, lead a team in a crunch, and not make epically dumb passes to clinch losses...yah, I think we could go over .500.

Not that I really wish we had that situation. Fringe playoff team isn't really that exciting to watch. 

[homer]

42 minutes ago, yourout said:

It would depend on how much freedom the QB had to make changes at the line and get them out of crappy plays.

That is the least of my concerns about the offense.

[Joseph Zarr]

I have to say it is pretty spectacle-like amazing witnessing the vast majority of Packers fans (albeit, I'm looking at the Bird App) entirely incapable of accepting the growing pains or 'rebound' (poor word choice) of being outside the bubble of Favre-to-Rodgers brilliance. It's as if people only allowed for the smooth and seamless transition to further excellence and more post-season runs? It's a pretty poor look from the fanbase. People are not handling this well. They should probably go back and watch those 1980's games for a refresher course.

Now, this being said, I continue to not enjoy this Packers product. Just no identity. All the same issues repeating themselves. I don't trust this organization to make any intrepid decisions in any form of right timing. It will be certainly interesting to see how the entirety of this season travels and what types of decisions do end up being made.

 

[bjkrautk]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

If we had a good enough game manager QB, I think we could have made the playoffs. It is kind of a miracle we are 2-4 and very well could be 4-2 or 5-1 if some luck would have broke our way. If you could minus Love and insert a decent game manager type QB...I think we are 4-2 right now and would win enough games to sneak in. A guy that can make accurate short throws, lead a team in a crunch, and not make epically dumb passes to clinch losses...yah, I think we could go over .500.

Not that I really wish we had that situation. Fringe playoff team isn't really that exciting to watch. 

Love went 10-for-13 in the first half, and only had a missed FG to show for it.

In the 2nd half, he went 11 for 18, but led 3 scoring drives before the INT.  The offense around Love makes too many mental mistakes (penalties, wrong routes, etc.) to sustain a short passing offense.

 

I thought this was going to be a fringe playoff team, but I'm assuming the losses to Denver and Las Vegas will keep them out of a wild card spot.  Outside of a handful of guys (Zach Tom, Aaron Jones, Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Kenny Clark, and Quay Walker with the exception of the one big ST penalty), everyone on the team has to play more consistent for this team to win.

[LouisEly]

5 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I have to say it is pretty spectacle-like amazing witnessing the vast majority of Packers fans (albeit, I'm looking at the Bird App) entirely incapable of accepting the growing pains or 'rebound' (poor word choice) of being outside the bubble of Favre-to-Rodgers brilliance. It's as if people only allowed for the smooth and seamless transition to further excellence and more post-season runs?

Youngest team in the NFL.  Six of the 10 WRs/TEs are rookies and three of the other four are 2nd year players.   Yes, Love has been around for a couple of years, but he hasn't been building chemistry with his receivers because six of the ten of them weren't here and three more weren't here two years ago.  Then add to that most of their best players missing games including Bakh, Jones, Alexander, Jenkins, Stokes, Watson...

Not sure what people expected. 

[yourout]

Sucks to say but Kevin O'Connell is far superior to MLF game planning an offense.

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, yourout said:

Sucks to say but Kevin O'Connell is far superior to MLF game planning an offense.

What is Adam Stenavich's role?

[yourout]

3 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

What is Adam Stenavich's role?

Not sure but whatever it is the Vikings are vastly superior to the Packers in offensive scheme. Not even close.

[adambr2]

12 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Just absurd

It's a constant, weekly, recurring, "we'll have to figure out how to fix it" theme. 

Obviously he isn't the only issue with the team right now, but how can Matt Lafleur not see that his defensive coordinator simply isn't qualified for his position at the NFL level?

[CheezWizHed]

8 hours ago, adambr2 said:

It's a constant, weekly, recurring, "we'll have to figure out how to fix it" theme. 

Obviously he isn't the only issue with the team right now, but how can Matt Lafleur not see that his defensive coordinator simply isn't qualified for his position at the NFL level?

Oddly, defense seems to be the least of their probs (not that it isn't a problem).  The offense just had a bye week and a mini-bye week and still can't seem to fix a single problem they have.  MLF is sounding like a broken record. 

[MrTPlush]

17 hours ago, bjkrautk said:

Love went 10-for-13 in the first half, and only had a missed FG to show for it.

In the 2nd half, he went 11 for 18, but led 3 scoring drives before the INT.  The offense around Love makes too many mental mistakes (penalties, wrong routes, etc.) to sustain a short passing offense.

 

I thought this was going to be a fringe playoff team, but I'm assuming the losses to Denver and Las Vegas will keep them out of a wild card spot.  Outside of a handful of guys (Zach Tom, Aaron Jones, Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Kenny Clark, and Quay Walker with the exception of the one big ST penalty), everyone on the team has to play more consistent for this team to win.

The point was a veteran QB is probably going to be more accurate and more consistently. A veteran QB probably isn't going to throw up random hail mary to lose a game, go into the bye week, and then proceed to make an even bigger fail mary to lose the next game in even worse fashion. The fact Love made a boneheaded play like that twice in a row is kind of amazing.

I mean Love is lucky he got the bounce of a lifetime to get a TD pass and lucky Doubs managed to come down with his terribly underthrown pass for the first TD. The later of which he maybe needed help from the refs to not call it an INT. 

Clearly sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for years was pretty useless for him. He looks like a guy straight out of college. 

[bjkrautk]

28 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

The point was a veteran QB is probably going to be more accurate and more consistently. A veteran QB probably isn't going to throw up random hail mary to lose a game, go into the bye week, and then proceed to make an even bigger fail mary to lose the next game in even worse fashion. The fact Love made a boneheaded play like that twice in a row is kind of amazing.

I mean Love is lucky he got the bounce of a lifetime to get a TD pass and lucky Doubs managed to come down with his terribly underthrown pass for the first TD. The later of which he maybe needed help from the refs to not call it an INT. 

Clearly sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for years was pretty useless for him. He looks like a guy straight out of college. 

Rodgers' worst year for INTs came after sitting behind Favre for 3 years....and he was throwing to a much more experienced group of WRs.  Throwing primarily to rookies Doubs and Watson, he was 1 away from matching that total last season.

 

I am much more forgiving of the INT in the Raiders game than this past week's, because there was time on the clock this week, and the team only needed a FG to beat Denver.  (Not to mention, Watson needs to fight for that ball, if only to make the official think about calling PI when the defender pushes off.)

As for the Doubs TD, Steratore has admitted he mis-applied the rules.  Not surprising, considering the play was automatically reviewed by the league before Green Bay kicked the PAT. 

If the Packers do not make the playoffs, then evaluating Love is the most important takeaway from the season.  Whether he learns from his mistakes, or whether he keeps finding ways to throw INTs at the end of winnable games, will make the determination one way or the other.  I don't see the upside in giving up on him after 6 games.