With the rookies smashing the cover off the ball...

[Brock Beauchamp]

We obviously need to re-evaluate our expectations of this team.

[Playing Catch]

There are a few posters that already can't wait to bump this thread in a month or two😄

But thinking about this seriously, as in... let's just pretend that the Brewers have a trio of dueling ROY candidates, this offense WOULD be much better than expected. If Mitchell, Turang and Wiemer all turn out to be 100-plus wRC+ hitters, I would have to think projections would have them in the 92+ win range. If that ends up being the case, the division would be very much in-play, of course, but so would a wild card.

[brewcrewdue80]

Already had 93games. Not going to jump to next level.

[adambr2]

I've never had a strong belief one way or another in whether or not there is a "bias" in prospect rankings on a small market club like the Brewers versus a team like the Yankees or Red Sox, but it always raises eyebrows to me when the Brewers will have prospects that are only "meh" rated on top 100 lists or even unranked come up and rake, and the large market clubs have can't-miss top 10-20 prospects that come up and just ride the struggle bus for a long time. I realize prospect rankings aren't a perfect science. 

[owbc]

Too soon to re-evaluate my preseason prediction of mid-80s. We're a long way from game 162. Lots to like so far but also several things not to like. 

So far the young guys have performed well for one week...I'll get more excited if they carry something at least close to that performance through weeks 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc. 

 

[csbysam]

This has the potential to be a 100 win team. Top 5 offense, defense, starters, bullpen, speed. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, csbysam said:

This has the potential to be a 100 win team. Top 5 offense, defense, starters, bullpen, speed. 

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[DoubleSwitch]

I think this could be a bad year for projection systems because of the new rules.

[jay87shot]

It would be nice to turn Yeli or Winker into another solid pen option and get Frelick in there as well. Last year Frelick seemed more advanced than Weimer and Mitchell. 

Maybe Yeli, Cousins, Payamps, and Urias for Chris Sale and Kenley Jansen. Sale slots into the Josh Hader role from his first 2 year, Kenley goes to set up. We up our payroll short term but free up the future and don't maybe get better by subtraction. Anderson to 3b, Sal to LF. Sox get 4 contributors and out near term contracts to make a run at free agents next year.  

[StearnsFTW]

1 hour ago, csbysam said:

This has the potential to be a 100 win team. Top 5 offense, defense, starters, bullpen, speed. 

Bullpen still worries me.

 

I imagine they'll add there either via the minors or trade.

[MrTPlush]

I am one to temper expectations and realize this is a 6 game stretch and like any other 6 games in the season is quite a blip on the radar. However, a lot of the question marks offensively have done really good out of the gates. It gives me some optimism that some of these guys can step up and be relevant offensive pieces. I doubt but we have dug up the holy grail and all these guys keep it up…but we don’t need them all to. We don’t need career high Winker/Anderson, but something useful on offense will go a long way with a few rookies doing the same.

I hope this is a division winning type team and a team worthy of adding at the deadline. The likes of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta give us an opportunity to make a playoff run with a decent offense that won’t flop when elite pitching shows up.

Who knows how things look in 2 months, but at least this start can give one hope that maybe this team has way more potential than we were originally expecting. Instead of a WC maybe we can go for the division and maybe put together a threat for a deep run like we had in 2018/2019.

[KeithStone53151]

Based on the start, the likelihood of 90-100 wins is significantly more likely than it was. Going into the season I felt like 82-88 wins was fairly unlikely. That would most likely require a "stand pat" deadline decision, and that seems super unlikely with woodruff/burnes/Adames. Either we're in a position to add at the deadline and roll a high win count the last 2 months, or we aren't and we sell big and roll a low win count those 2 months. I felt like the odds of 70-80 or 90-100 were higher than ending between 81-89. That's I think why a lot of people are predicting mid 80s, it's a good hedge despite there not really being many paths to that win total for this team this year. I'm in a brewer prediction pool and went with 94. At the time I felt like the low win total was more likely, but what fun is picking a low number? It's a more casual "pool" from a $ perspective so I went on the fun side. After this start I'm liking my prediction quite a bit more

[igor67]

I think the hot start is mostly important for giving everyone some positives to look back on. The rookies already know how to manage the pitch clock, so I can see some of the pitchers still adjusting to that aspect giving those guys some advantage that might shift later. Inevitably the league will try to pitch them differently as well, so the slumps will happen. But having that hot start along with good all around skills will make it much easier to give them some of the time it naturally takes to work through those. I also kind of like how all that speed and energy is clustered in the line-up. Basically Rowdy (and some of the other slow players) are not super likely to be clogging things up with the way most of the line-ups are running.

[umphrey]

Great to see the rookies playing well. When hitters come to the bigs there are about 3 common outcomes:

 

1. immediately flounder and turn into an AAAA player

2. play well for a few hundred AB and then get figured out, AAAA player

3. play well and be a good player (sometimes with a sophomore slump)

 

So I’m really glad to see many of them pushing through step 1 and Mitchell might even be pushing into step 3 since he played a good amount last year 

[CheezWizHed]

6 games doesn't change my opinion, but I love the optimism of the 124+ win crowd.  Nothing like breaking the MLB single season win record by 8+ games.  We will have to check in you during our first slump to make sure you don't ride the lows as much as you ride the highs. 🙂

[BruisedCrew]

Way too early to change preseason expectations. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Way too early to change preseason expectations. 

[BruisedCrew]

40 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Several of the posts above didn’t seem to take it that way. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, BruisedCrew said:

Several of the posts above didn’t seem to take it that way. 

I feel the final option should have cemented the intent of the poll.

[BruisedCrew]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I feel the final option should have cemented the intent of the poll.

That option was obviously a joke, but I’m sensing a lot of people really are ready to change what they expected before the season started. 

[Jake McKibbin]

6 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

That option was obviously a joke, but I’m sensing a lot of people really are ready to change what they expected before the season started. 

Exactly.

Let's be more realistic, all this 161-1 nonsense

159-3 is the best we can expect

[BruisedCrew]

On 4/5/2023 at 5:26 PM, adambr2 said:

I've never had a strong belief one way or another in whether or not there is a "bias" in prospect rankings on a small market club like the Brewers versus a team like the Yankees or Red Sox, but it always raises eyebrows to me when the Brewers will have prospects that are only "meh" rated on top 100 lists or even unranked come up and rake, and the large market clubs have can't-miss top 10-20 prospects that come up and just ride the struggle bus for a long time. I realize prospect rankings aren't a perfect science. 

How many Brewers prospects in the last 10 years have come up and raked?

[KeithStone53151]

2 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

That option was obviously a joke, but I’m sensing a lot of people really are ready to change what they expected before the season started. 

So you're telling me Mitchell/Anderson aren't going to hit the 81 HR they are currently on pace to hit?

I mildly disagree with you that it's too early to alter projections. It's certainly going to be more accurate if you wait until the season is half over to redo your projections, but completely ignoring what happened so far is less accurate than sticking to preseason predictions. This team just spanked the Mets silly, who were WS contender last season and have a gazillion dollar payroll...we beat them like they were the 2010s Pirates. It's also one thing to move a projection from mid 80s to 95+ based on 6 games, but I think it's hard to disagree there certainly is an increase in the percentage of 90+ win outcomes if you were to simulate the rest of the season a bunch of times than there were 2 weeks ago.

[brewcrewdue80]

36 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

So you're telling me Mitchell/Anderson aren't going to hit the 81 HR they are currently on pace to hit?

I mildly disagree with you that it's too early to alter projections. It's certainly going to be more accurate if you wait until the season is half over to redo your projections, but completely ignoring what happened so far is less accurate than sticking to preseason predictions. This team just spanked the Mets silly, who were WS contender last season and have a gazillion dollar payroll...we beat them like they were the 2010s Pirates. It's also one thing to move a projection from mid 80s to 95+ based on 6 games, but I think it's hard to disagree there certainly is an increase in the percentage of 90+ win outcomes if you were to simulate the rest of the season a bunch of times than there were 2 weeks ago.

GL finding a simulation where that outcome is 90+ wins. It'd probably start with getting swept by the Cardinals, and be .500 the rest of the season. Though Ashby may pitch a full month vs likely 0 this season.