NL Central Discussion

[rickh150]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

Cardinals need to actually start playing good baseball at some point and for a lengthy stretch. They haven't shown any signs of being able to do that thus far.

So they are 8.5 back without playing ANY good ball yet?  Great point. Even better reason that they will stay in contention longer and finally play up to expectations. They can’t underperform all season. 

[82brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

I'd argue that no team in this division has shown any signs of being able to do that thus far, other than maybe the Reds and Cubs recently. 8.5 GB in June, with arguably the best offense in the division, is really not much.

It might be much if your pitching and defense are at the other end of the spectrum.

[82brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

So they are 8.5 back without playing ANY good ball yet?  Great point. Even better reason that they will stay in contention longer and finally play up to expectations. They can’t underperform all season. 

Who says the are under performing?  The fangrapsh graph you posted sure doesn't think they are.

[82brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

I'd argue that no team in this division has shown any signs of being able to do that thus far, other than maybe the Reds and Cubs recently. 8.5 GB in June, with arguably the best offense in the division, is really not much.

Pittsburgh has.

[brooks_quichenick]

1 minute ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Pittsburgh has.

Pittsburgh has lost 6 in a row and has the worst run differential in the division.

[82brewcrew82]

Just now, brooks_quichenick said:

Pittsburgh has lost 6 in a row and has the worst run differential in the division.

They also went something like 20-8 the first month.  So they have definitely shown they can.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, brooks_quichenick said:

I'd argue that no team in this division has shown any signs of being able to do that thus far, other than maybe the Reds and Cubs recently. 8.5 GB in June, with arguably the best offense in the division, is really not much.

Brewers played really good baseball in March/April when they were actually healthy. Injuries and underperformance have definitely caught up with us since, but we still have an 8.5 game advantage and are finally getting some guys back while Corbin Burnes is beginning to pitch like Corbin Burnes and Yelich is looking more like Yelich, etc. 

8.5 games and below 3 teams is a lot, even in June. Why they currently have an 11% chance of making the playoffs. It's also worth remembering that they have less games against the NL Central to make up that deficit this year...

I'm not counting the Cardinals out by any stretch. I'm just not that worried about them right now because they've been a bad team from opening day. 

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

So they are 8.5 back without playing ANY good ball yet?  Great point. Even better reason that they will stay in contention longer and finally play up to expectations. They can’t underperform all season. 

11% is still 11%. Doesn't happen 9 times out of 10...

They've been a bad team right from opening day. They have some good hitters, obviously, but there is absolutely nothing in their run-prevention profile to suggest that a run is probable at this point. 

[brooks_quichenick]

Sure, the Brewers and Pirates had nice Aprils, but that doesn't mean anything. Neither team has separated themselves from the pack. The Cardinals have yet to have the 1 good month like PIT and MIL did, and when they do, they could easily find themselves near the top of the division.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

Sure, the Brewers and Pirates had nice Aprils, but that doesn't mean anything. Neither team has separated themselves from the pack. The Cardinals have yet to have the 1 good month like PIT and MIL did, and when they do, they could easily find themselves near the top of the division.

Except it's not a matter of "when" anymore, it's become a matter of "if". Other teams in the NL Central have had and will have good months, too. They have a deficit to make up right now that leaves them out of the playoffs 9 times out of 10. 

Is it possible? Sure. Is it among the likeliest scenarios right now? No. 

[82brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

Sure, the Brewers and Pirates had nice Aprils, but that doesn't mean anything. Neither team has separated themselves from the pack. The Cardinals have yet to have the 1 good month like PIT and MIL did, and when they do, they could easily find themselves near the top of the division.

How does that not mean anything when the question you posed was whether any of these teams have shown the ability to have that kind of run?  You can't ask that then say the proof doesn't mean anything.  Meanwhile, the one team that actually hasn't shown that ability is just assumed to have that run in them?

[StearnsFTW]

The reason the Brewers have an 8 1/2 game lead on St Louis with the same run differential is the bullpens.  Brewers are far more likely to win close games given that they have the best bullpen in baseball compared to the Cardinals' horrid pen.

 

[82brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

The reason the Brewers have an 8 1/2 game lead on St Louis with the same run differential is the bullpens.  Brewers are far more likely to win close games given that they have the best bullpen in baseball compared to the Cardinals' horrid pen.

 

This is exactly right and the reason run differential is a bad argument on its own.  I wish I could give the original post multiple thumbs up and giant blinking stars.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

This is exactly right and the reason run differential is a bad argument on its own.  I wish I could give the original post multiple thumbs up and giant blinking stars.

Yep. The back-end of the Brewers bullpen has been largely responsible for torpedoing the Brewers' run differential. 

[brooks_quichenick]

If you don't believe the Cardinals have a good month of baseball in them, that is your opinion. I think they do.

I'm tapping out. You guys enjoy yourselves in here.

[Frisbee Slider]

Does anyone in media notice or care that Jordan Walker has negative WAR? Which is remarkable given his .850 OPS.

By contrast, Wiemer has 1.1 WAR.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Does anyone in media notice or care that Jordan Walker has negative WAR? Which is remarkable given his .850 OPS.

By contrast, Wiemer has 1.1 WAR.

Defense and base-running matter

[82brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

If you don't believe the Cardinals have a good month of baseball in them, that is your opinion. I think they do.

I'm tapping out. You guys enjoy yourselves in here.

Sure, except literally no one has said that.

[wiguy94]

One of the Cardinals "league average SP" has already given up 3 runs in the 1st inning against the incredible Washington Nationals offense!

[rickh150]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

One of the Cardinals "league average SP" has already given up 3 runs in the 1st inning against the incredible Washington Nationals offense!

Go Nationals!

[wiguy94]

18 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

One of the Cardinals "league average SP" has already given up 3 runs in the 1st inning against the incredible Washington Nationals offense!

5-0 Nationals in the 2nd inning against the league average SP. Also the scary Nolan Gorman that was included up with Goldschmidt and Arenado has a 48% K-rate in June and has seen his wRC+ drop from 148 at the end of May to currently 118 after his first AB today.

[82brewcrew82]

I hadn't realized that Contreras had been that awful.

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

5-0 Nationals in the 2nd inning against the league average SP. Also the scary Nolan Gorman that was included up with Goldschmidt and Arenado has a 48% K-rate in June and has seen his wRC+ drop from 148 at the end of May to currently 118 after his first AB today.

Goldschmidt and Arenado are also playing significantly below the level of their career years from last season. Who could have seen that coming with those two being in their early to mid 30s...

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

At the same time, the 2011 team was never below .500 after mid-April. The current team is 14 games below .500 with a negative run differential in the double digits. Different years, different teams, different threats. 

If you want to talk about context, you also have to consider that the bar for making the playoffs is much lower than it was in 2011, especially in the very mediocre NL Central. 

Even at 14 games below .500 they are only 8.5 games out of the division lead with 90 games to play.  Climbing over 4 teams isn’t that daunting either when there is no indication that, unless the Reds do it, any of the teams above them are going to move much above .500. It’s not like they have to win 15-20 in a row like they did to claim a playoff spot in 2021. 
 

 

[82brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

If you want to talk about context, you also have to consider that the bar for making the playoffs is much lower than it was in 2011, especially in the very mediocre NL Central. 

Even at 14 games below .500 they are only 8.5 games out of the division lead with 90 games to play.  Climbing over 4 teams isn’t that daunting either when there is no indication that, unless the Reds do it, any of the teams above them are going to move much above .500. It’s not like they have to win 15-20 in a row like they did to claim a playoff spot in 2021. 
 

 

All of that is true but they are going to have to play a whole lot better than they have and they have shown zero indication that they can.