What to do with Yelich?

[Thurston Fluff]

3 hours ago, adambr2 said:

The reason that the "consensus" was that Yelich signed a team friendly deal is that the part of this that always gets overlooked is that Yelich signed his massive extension when he still had 3 years remaining on his contract (and was coming off a major injury). People look at these contracts and compare them to similar players who get deals in free agency and it's just absolutely an apples and oranges comparison. Free agents have all the leverage. 

Could Yelich have bet on himself, played out his last 3 years with us on his old contract, and gotten a much more massive payday if he continued to play at an MVP level? Sure, hypothetically, but in reality he would have lost that bet and probably well over 100 million in the process. 

My argument was Yelich signing that deal indicated he liked it here. It is possible a league MVP, in his prime decided to sign a long term extension at what would be below market price if he remained anything close to his norm to a team he didn't like just for security. It's also possible Big Foot exists.

 

1 hour ago, jonescm128 said:

I'm not into conspiracy theories but MLB did crack down on cheating and Yu Darvish did accuse Yelich of cheating. I've always attributed it to his knee injury but I have had friends suggest the cheating thing. 

I've heard that too. Seems odd no other players suffered similar declines or that Yelich was the only one doing it.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yelich has an easy 3 seasons ahead of him before seeing a move reducing his playing time. After this season when Winker leaves you know he's the DH from that point forward with only OF games when injuries say its needed.  I dunno what it's going to take but somebody is going to figure out the inability to loft balls 8-10degrees higher than he's doing with his swing. His swing isn't as soft looking as the 2020/2021 version was swinging. If somebody would pay me half a mil I'd happily dig through the tapes and look for a fix between 2018/2019CY vs this continued slap ball in the ground version. Obviously he has a beaten mentality with approaches he takes in ABs.  Anyone wanna make that happen? 😆😅😂

[tonyei31]

4 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Yelich has an easy 3 seasons ahead of him before seeing a move reducing his playing time. After this season when Winker leaves you know he's the DH from that point forward with only OF games when injuries say its needed.  I dunno what it's going to take but somebody is going to figure out the inability to loft balls 8-10degrees higher than he's doing with his swing. His swing isn't as soft looking as the 2020/2021 version was swinging. If somebody would pay me half a mil I'd happily dig through the tapes and look for a fix between 2018/2019CY vs this continued slap ball in the ground version. Obviously he has a beaten mentality with approaches he takes in ABs.  Anyone wanna make that happen? 😆😅😂

Lots of it is in his subtle hand movement with the bat prior to the pitch.  When he moves his bat down, to get into his swing motion he is resetting at a level that is higher than his projected point of contact. We are talking a fractional amount but enough to 'high point' the ball leading to a substantial amount of ground balls.  The inability to find that placement again, consistently, is the biggest problem.  It's why you have a game or two where the point of impact is correct, seeing glimpses of the old Yelich.  I would venture much more of his issue is related to the back problems he has had over the past few years vs his knee issues.  No doubt he has worked on this, the batting coaches have seen it, however I think it's something that is never coming back.  

[superfly]

On 5/1/2023 at 1:41 PM, ecjimg said:

I just wish he wasn't leading off and wasn't playing almost every game

What’s the rush to move him down? The plethora of annual .235 hitters we schlub out there on a daily basis?

[MVP2110]

It's worth noting Yelich has the 4th highest WAR so far this season for position players behind only Contreras, Adames, and Mitchell. So he's hardly been bad

[jonescm128]

37 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

It's worth noting Yelich has the 4th highest WAR so far this season for position players behind only Contreras, Adames, and Mitchell. So he's hardly been bad

I'd guess most of that WAR is defensive because there is nothing about a .660 OPS that says anything other than he has been terrible at the plate.  

[MVP2110]

4 minutes ago, jonescm128 said:

I'd guess most of that WAR is defensive

It's split evenly 50/50 between his defense and offense

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, MVP2110 said:

It's worth noting Yelich has the 4th highest WAR so far this season for position players behind only Contreras, Adames, and Mitchell. So he's hardly been bad

I think our position players are just that bad. 

He also gets credit for 0.2 dWAR for Bref. He hasn't finished a season with a positive Bref WAR since 2015. He hasn't finished a season with anything better than -0.6 since then. So that is probably going to trend the opposite direction as the season goes on. I doubt Yelich has some newfound defensive gift at 30+.

[MVP2110]

20 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I think our position players are just that bad. 

He also gets credit for 0.2 dWAR for Bref. He hasn't finished a season with a positive Bref WAR since 2015. He hasn't finished a season with anything better than -0.6 since then. So that is probably going to trend the opposite direction as the season goes on. I doubt Yelich has some newfound defensive gift at 30+.

It is certainly possible he regresses as the season goes on but currently he's on pace for a WAR of 2.2 or 2.3, last year he was at 2.7. Is he living up to his contract? Definitely not but he's still an above average player

[MrTPlush]

11 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

It is certainly possible he regresses as the season goes on but currently he's on pace for a WAR of 2.2 or 2.3, last year he was at 2.7. Is he living up to his contract? Definitely not but he's still an above average player

That 2.7 WAR is a bit inflated by his bonkers 671 PAs. His 110 OPS+ was solid though, either way. 

If he can revert back to his near mid .700s OPS and a nice .350+ OBP he is a decent bat to have in the lineup. However, that seems to be his ceiling at this point and he is 30+ now. I can't imagine he is this bad, but could he start floating closer and closer to sub .700? Possible. 

[Playing Catch]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

That 2.7 WAR is a bit inflated by his bonkers 671 PAs

This is an important note when relying on WAR. If someone leads off and plays everyday, and that someone doesn't outright suck, he'll accumulate WAR.

Then again, I appreciate the old adage that the most important ability is availability.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

This is an important note when relying on WAR. If someone leads off and plays everyday, and that someone doesn't outright suck, he'll accumulate WAR.

Then again, I appreciate the old adage that the most important ability is availability.

Value of depth, depends on who the next guy up is. Your comment makes me think of elite pitchers that miss extended time constantly. 3.25 ERA is fantastic, but if the guy pitching the other 1/3 of the season throws up a 5.25 ERA...well, collectively that isn't all that elite.

 

 

[jonescm128]

On 5/3/2023 at 1:33 PM, Playing Catch said:

This is an important note when relying on WAR. If someone leads off and plays everyday, and that someone doesn't outright suck, he'll accumulate WAR.

Then again, I appreciate the old adage that the most important ability is availability.

Not if that availability gets you a sub .700 OPS

[tmwiese55]

With what's left on the deal and the fact that there is no other option that can really be expected to do any better he's not going anywhere for a while.   Yea, he's not been good but what does cutting/benching him to play that AAA OF who was just up and looked terrible do?  The money is spent anyway.    Hopefully he can just hang in the .750 ops area to at least be 'fine/contributing'.

But mostly wanted to note the guy that is awful and needs to be cut has a .703 ops and the guy the team is cheap/stupid not to have given a 200 mil extension has a .708 ops.    And last year the terrible guy was only 20 points behind as well.   I know one plays a prime D position and one doesn't but the point stands. 

[umphrey]

I agree he sucks but he’s probably the best lead off hitter we have against RHP. Against LHP they should probably bury him in the lineup somewhere or bring him off the bench. 

[folly412]

Let me know when we have four good outfielders and Yelich is the fifth. 

As of now, we have no good outfielders.

[nate82]

On 5/2/2023 at 11:51 AM, brewcrewdue80 said:

Yelich has an easy 3 seasons ahead of him before seeing a move reducing his playing time. After this season when Winker leaves you know he's the DH from that point forward with only OF games when injuries say its needed.  I dunno what it's going to take but somebody is going to figure out the inability to loft balls 8-10degrees higher than he's doing with his swing. His swing isn't as soft looking as the 2020/2021 version was swinging. If somebody would pay me half a mil I'd happily dig through the tapes and look for a fix between 2018/2019CY vs this continued slap ball in the ground version. Obviously he has a beaten mentality with approaches he takes in ABs.  Anyone wanna make that happen? 😆😅😂

I don't think it is the launch angle that is the issue for Yelich.  In the upper zone you will want to have a more flatter swing otherwise you look like Hiura and you just whiff at those pitches as you can't get the bat to the ball with a huge uppercut swing.  The -11 on the inside of the plate is a problem though for Yelich that means he is basically jamming himself on pitches middle in.  Throughout Yelich's career the bottom of the strike zone is basically where he has no launch angle at all. 

2018

2019

2023

 

 

 

 

 

[greeg35]

5 hours ago, nate82 said:

I don't think it is the launch angle that is the issue for Yelich.  In the upper zone you will want to have a more flatter swing otherwise you look like Hiura and you just whiff at those pitches as you can't get the bat to the ball with a huge uppercut swing.  The -11 on the inside of the plate is a problem though for Yelich that means he is basically jamming himself on pitches middle in.  Throughout Yelich's career the bottom of the strike zone is basically where he has no launch angle at all. 

2018

2019

2023

 

 

 

 

 

Let's not forget that the whole strike zone shifted upwards 2/3 years ago.... coincidence?

[MVP2110]

this was from before yesterdyesterday's game. After yesterday's performance Yelich is on pave for 4.6 WAR

 

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

this was from before yesterdyesterday's game. After yesterday's performance Yelich is on pave for 4.6 WAR

 

That would be Marlins Yelich.

[brewcrewdue80]

I honestly wonder on the price to WAR value. Does it really begin from 0WAR? Or 1WAR and up? BRef  lists 0-2WAR value as Sub. And 2+ as Starter. So wouldn't it make sense to tie the value per WAR starting higher than 0?  Trout was putting up 8+WAR seasons yet his max in a year is below 38M.  How's the work for him?  They paid him to be 4.5WAR? Or 6.5WAR? As a starter+ beginning at 2WAR?  Maybe that's why some contracts come out and we're like we should have done that for that price vs production?

[Brock Beauchamp]

37 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

That would be Marlins Yelich.

Which I would be ecstatic to see at this point. 

[Redd Vencher]

3 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

I honestly wonder on the price to WAR value. Does it really begin from 0WAR? Or 1WAR and up? BRef  lists 0-2WAR value as Sub. And 2+ as Starter. So wouldn't it make sense to tie the value per WAR starting higher than 0?  Trout was putting up 8+WAR seasons yet his max in a year is below 38M.  How's the work for him?  They paid him to be 4.5WAR? Or 6.5WAR? As a starter+ beginning at 2WAR?  Maybe that's why some contracts come out and we're like we should have done that for that price vs production?

Dollar/WAR is the average of all the big league free agent money divided by projected WAR. Trout has been vastly underpaid his entire career, and he was willing to take team friendly deals to stay in LA his entire career.

[tmwiese55]

On 5/4/2023 at 3:47 PM, tmwiese55 said:

With what's left on the deal and the fact that there is no other option that can really be expected to do any better he's not going anywhere for a while.   Yea, he's not been good but what does cutting/benching him to play that AAA OF who was just up and looked terrible do?  The money is spent anyway.    Hopefully he can just hang in the .750 ops area to at least be 'fine/contributing'.

But mostly wanted to note the guy that is awful and needs to be cut has a .703 ops and the guy the team is cheap/stupid not to have given a 200 mil extension has a .708 ops.    And last year the terrible guy was only 20 points behind as well.   I know one plays a prime D position and one doesn't but the point stands. 

Yelich now 50 points ahead and the guy many demanding 200 mil be paid to is at 702, Which is well below what Yelich did last year too.    My main view is Adames is not one we should be looking to hand our next mega contract to as its a big albatross risk as well.

[jonescm128]

Good to see him picking it up as of late - I think it was him the other day who said you cant do damage on balls hit on the ground, so it seems like he is actively trying to make the launch angle adjustment.