Revisiting the Hader Trade

[Samurai Bucky]

To be honest, I did a little searching and didn't see anything like this.  After last night's meltdown, it got me thinking about how much better Hader + Williams was.  Williams has been lights out this year and he certainly would not have many saves if Hader was still around.  It also doesn't address how tired the bullpen was -- that might have been solved with having one less starting arm and one more bullpen arm... but I digress.

For fun, I thought I would see how the Hader trade has panned out so far.  Recall, it was:

Padres receive Josh Hader

Brewers receive   Robert Gasser (minors), Dinelson Lamet, Taylor Rogers and Esteury Ruiz.

Hader:  0-1; 18 Saves in 31 appearances.  ERA of 1.21.  29.2 IP, 45K .944 WHIP

Gasser:  AAA Nashville; 5-1 4.00 ERA; 74.1 IP; 1.251 WHIP; 87K; 2.9 K/BB

Lamet:  Put on Waivers and picked up by the Rockies 4 days after the trade

Rogers:  Currently with San Francisco; signed as a free agent on 12/28/22; had a 5.48 ERA in 24 appearances with Milwaukee

Ruiz:  Currently with Oakland; 3 games with the Brewers in 2022; was part of the trade where the Brewers received William Contreras and Joel Payamps.

Not sure how Gasser will do.  Happy with Contreras and Payamps.  Would we say it was a push as far as who won this trade... so far?

 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Samurai Bucky said:

To be honest, I did a little searching and didn't see anything like this.  After last night's meltdown, it got me thinking about how much better Hader + Williams was.  Williams has been lights out this year and he certainly would not have many saves if Hader was still around.  It also doesn't address how tired the bullpen was -- that might have been solved with having one less starting arm and one more bullpen arm... but I digress.

For fun, I thought I would see how the Hader trade has panned out so far.  Recall, it was:

Padres receive Josh Hader

Brewers receive   Robert Gasser (minors), Dinelson Lamet, Taylor Rogers and Esteury Ruiz.

Hader:  0-1; 18 Saves in 31 appearances.  ERA of 1.21.  29.2 IP, 45K .944 WHIP

Gasser:  AAA Nashville; 5-1 4.00 ERA; 74.1 IP; 1.251 WHIP; 87K; 2.9 K/BB

Lamet:  Put on Waivers and picked up by the Rockies 4 days after the trade

Rogers:  Currently with San Francisco; signed as a free agent on 12/28/22; had a 5.48 ERA in 24 appearances with Milwaukee

Ruiz:  Currently with Oakland; 3 games with the Brewers in 2022; was part of the trade where the Brewers received William Contreras and Joel Payamps.

Not sure how Gasser will do.  Happy with Contreras and Payamps.  Would we say it was a push as far as who won this trade... so far?

 

Hader's numbers are wrong. You aren't including last season's numbers, but this trade is a win for the Brewers. We ended up getting Gasser, Contreras, Payamps, And Yeager for 1 year and 2 months of Hader, a 3 out RP. Gasser had some early season command issues but has been incredible over the last 6-7 starts. Contreras is a well above average catcher with 5 years of control. Payamps has been a very dependable high leverage RP with 3 years of control. Yeager is a minor league RP who has intriguing stuff. 

Did the trade have some locker room impact last season? Yes, but I am still hesitant to say it's the reason we missed the playoffs considering we played basically the same level baseball from June 1st to the end of the season. 

Our high leverage bullpen has been the best in baseball this season. Leads in WPA. 1st in SD:MD ratio. 

[rickh150]

Had more blown saves than anyone in baseball in August and September…picking a scab here. The guys we traded for were the ringleaders.

I am glad we backwards ourselves into five years of Contreras with this trade. Great job by Arnold.

Stearns arguably could have still got us to the playoffs by simply keeping Lamet on the team, rather than preferring EVERY bullpen guy over him. Weirdly,  DS and CC both talked him up the day before cutting him.  Lamet then was throwing well for Colorado in 22.
 

Scab picking.

[Axman59]

Well, the trade scuttled the Brewers chance to make the playoffs in 2022. So there's that to consider.

[rickh150]

Payamps has been really good.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Had more blown saves than anyone in baseball in August and September…picking a scab here. The guys we traded for were the ringleaders.

I am glad we backwards ourselves into five years of Contreras with this trade. Great job by Arnold.

Stearns arguably could have still got us to the playoffs by simply keeping Lamet on the team, rather than preferring EVERY bullpen guy over him. Weirdly,  DS and CC both talked him up the day before cutting him.  Lamet then was throwing well for Colorado in 22.
 

Scab picking.

That Lamet decision made absolutely no sense and it was CLEARLY a roster issue and not intended all along as was presented to us. Irrespective of what Lamet has since done(plus, don't we consider the Brewers pretty good at developing pitchers and helping them fix their issues) that REALLY annoyed me.

The subsequent trades made a ton of sense. Contreras has improved so much defensively. He really only filled the Renfroe hole offensively, but that's worth a ton for a passable defensive catcher vs a RFer.

Payamps has been exceptional. 

 

One of the confusing things to me is Gasser not getting the call yet. I guess it's more about roster manipulation. They could deal with throwing Pannone once and then discarding him(which kinda sucks as he seemed like he could be of use as a long man). But Gasser has been pitching so well, he seems like he should be getting the call fairly quickly. I'd say by the next Houser start? Andrews back to AAA, Gasser up, Monasterio/Toro DFA?

I'd also be good with Uribe. That's 2 40 man spots, but with Turang, not sure it has to be an either or with Monasterio and Toro. So add those two, if options become an issue with either, things have not worked out. So I wouldn't be bothered by burning one.

[BrewerFan]

47 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Payamps has been really good.

He has. Peguero has as well. Wilson. 

I think the Brewers win this one long term...but there's more context to it. That Oakland loved Ruiz so much changes the whole deal. 

 

Side note, there's no chance BRef is accurate with Hader's height, right? They have him listed as 5'10? I thought he was at least 6'3 if not taller. Devin Williams is not 4 inches taller than him...right?

[edfunderburk]

20 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeager is a minor league RP who has intriguing stuff.

Where is Yeager in our system?

What are his 2023 stats.

What is his age?

[edfunderburk]

17 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Lamet then was throwing well for Colorado in 22.

Where is Lamet in 2023?

What are his numbers this year?

[edfunderburk]

15 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Andrews back to AAA, Gasser up, Monasterio/Toro DFA?

I’d prefer for Milwaukee to DFA Winker

He’s been given plenty of time but looks washed for the most part

[Brewcrew82]

43 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Where is Lamet in 2023?

What are his numbers this year?

DFA'd by Colorado with an ERA above 11. Red Sox taking a flier on him. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Lamet isn't a mlb pitcher anymore - he still throws hard but his numbers have proven he sucks.

 

Getting Gasser alone and the 6 years of mlb control the Brewers will have from him whenever he is called up makes this trade a win for the Brewers.  Throw in they wound up with their starting catcher for the next 5 years and a quality reliever option, and I don't see how people are still upset Hader was traded last year when he was in the midst of blowing up just about every appearance and his contract was only going to get pricier.

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

Where is Yeager in our system?

What are his 2023 stats.

What is his age?

25, 12K per 9 last year in AA. Threw 2.1 IP this year, went on the IL May 7th, that's all I can find...beyond his scouting report which sounds filthy. Sits in the 96-99 range, touches triple digits, wild, but has a splitter and slider that apparently get a ton of movement, but like most guys with this profile, struggles with walks.

 

Beyond that, I don't know. I tend to jump to TJ when I see a pitcher struggle, then miss a couple months, but maybe they're working with him in the famous pitching lab trying to get some things ironed out.

Given he was a throw in with Contreras, anything out of him is gravy, but he's would anyone be shoced to see him throwing the 8th inning for the Brewers next year?

 

8 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

I’d prefer for Milwaukee to DFA Winker

He’s been given plenty of time but looks washed for the most part

I'm still holding out hope. He's been such a good hitter and the last week or so he's had really good ABs. I think given who our options are, he's worth giving a little more rope to. 

 

But he'll probably end up like McCuth and end up in Cincy next year with a top 10 BA, OBP, and whatever else they rattled off when pointing out how good he'd been.

 

Speaking of which, not the forum for it, but if the Pirates were to sell, I'd be more than happy to step behind that Donkey and hope he didn't kick me again. But assuming they'll hold onto a franchise Icon having a great year.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Looks more & more like the trade was a win. I didn't know (or forgot) that Payamps has 3 yrs of control. That tilts the scales even more.

After they acquired Ruiz last season & he proceeded to do impressive things in N'ville it was obvious one of the 4 young OFs was going to be dealt. Mitchell may have ongoing health issues & really needs to clean up the Ks, but for now I couldn't be happier with that 3-corner trade. A+.

I think the bullpen fatigue issues would still be here had we never made the deal. I don't like the 6-man rotation because with the constant 5-6 inning starts it hurts to be one guy short in the pen. But if it leads to a little more fresher/effective starts in the dog days so be it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

On 7/1/2023 at 9:04 PM, BrewerFan said:

 

 

One of the confusing things to me is Gasser not getting the call yet. I guess it's more about roster manipulation. They could deal with throwing Pannone once and then discarding him(which kinda sucks as he seemed like he could be of use as a long man). But Gasser has been pitching so well, he seems like he should be getting the call fairly quickly. 

Since he's off-hand from most of the starters, I agree Pannone seemed like a decent long man candidate. I expected him to stick around at least until/if Justin Wilson makes it to Milwaukee.

Hard to say what their plans are for Gasser, except that if everyone in the rotation stays healthy and effective I don't think his arrival is imminent. Maybe if the clock strikes twelve for Teheran?

[AdvantageSchneider]

On 7/1/2023 at 4:32 PM, wiguy94 said:

 

Our high leverage bullpen has been the best in baseball this season. Leads in WPA. 1st in SD:MD ratio. 

Where do you get the high leverage bullpen numbers?  I've been looking for them but can't find them.  Our bullpen overall looks very mediocre but I didn't think it was that bad but couldn't find the stats to prove it.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, AdvantageSchneider said:

Where do you get the high leverage bullpen numbers?  I've been looking for them but can't find them.  Our bullpen overall looks very mediocre but I didn't think it was that bad but couldn't find the stats to prove it.

If you go to the team stats page on Fangraphs and toggle to win probability that’s where you can see the WPA, SD/MD and leverage type numbers. 
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31

[rickh150]

At what point do the Padres make Hader available? 9 games out of WC AND three teams ahead of them in division. He’s gone at deadline if this holds somewhat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Obviously, there's still a lot left to see with Contreras and Payamps but so far, this trade looks great.

The initial trade was pretty meh, IMO, but the follow-up move to acquire Contreras and Payamps was freakin' spectacular.

[wallus]

Considering the Padres are paying Hader 14 million, this trade is an easy win for the Brewers

[rickh150]

5 hours ago, wallus said:

Considering the Padres are paying Hader 14 million, this trade is an easy win for the Brewers

Last season, though….Tough to say when his presence last season could have put us in the playoffs.

 

[wallus]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

Last season, though….Tough to say when his presence last season could have put us in the playoffs.

 

Are we forgetting he wasn't dominant and Rodgers was actually better after we acquired him?

[rickh150]

2 hours ago, wallus said:

Are we forgetting he wasn't dominant and Rodgers was actually better after we acquired him?

Hader was still better the last 6 weeks of the season… lights out. Rodgers, not so much. We blew more saves than anyone in August and September… he was a major part.

[wallus]

15 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Hader was still better the last 6 weeks of the season… lights out. Rodgers, not so much. We blew more saves than anyone in August and September… he was a major part.

Cherry picking stats makes your argument not too strong. The games all counted the same. Either way, the trade was a good one when looking at it overall.

[Oxy]

Anybody who says they'd rather have Hader (and his $14M salary...for ONLY this year) rather than Contreras for 4 more years, Payamps for 3 more years and Gasser for 6 more years is not the sharpest tool in the shed.

Hader's August last year would have submarined our year anyway.

OTOH, nobody knows what Hader would have fetched last offseason rather than at the deadline. Still, I'm happy with how things worked out.