Revisiting the Hader Trade

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

To me, this was a trade a team like the Brewers just has to make to be long-term competitive. Hader was on of the most valuable pitchers in the game, and he wasn't going to be around much longer.

They took a shot to replace his contributions I. The short-term with Rogers. That failed. Every other part of the trade has worked out very well, though, and that longer term outlook was always the point. 

[rickh150]

Longer term, yes. But it hurt 2022.

[markedman5]

After the hot first 2 months of the season the Brewers were remarkably consistent before and after the Hader trade.

June 12-15

July 13-11

August  12-15

Sept 15-13

Oct 2-3

id do that trade again 100 times out of a hundred……I’m not convinced we would have made the playoffs with him…..and if we did it would have been a very short stay IMO

[rickh150]

45 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

After the hot first 2 months of the season the Brewers were remarkably consistent before and after the Hader trade.

June 12-15

July 13-11

August  12-15

Sept 15-13

Oct 2-3

id do that trade again 100 times out of a hundred……I’m not convinced we would have made the playoffs with him…..and if we did it would have been a very short stay IMO

I think we would have been in with him. Just a small improvement would do….and then you never know. 
All in all, I’d hate to go back on it now with Contreras in the mix, but I assumed he would have been traded after 2022.

[torts]

46 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

I think we would have been in with him. Just a small improvement would do….and then you never know. 
All in all, I’d hate to go back on it now with Contreras in the mix, but I assumed he would have been traded after 2022.

Right, we ended up with the right Contreras behind the plate 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

On 7/10/2023 at 4:08 AM, Oxy said:

Anybody who says they'd rather have Hader (and his $14M salary...for ONLY this year) rather than Contreras for 4 more years, Payamps for 3 more years and Gasser for 6 more years is not the sharpest tool in the shed.

Hader's August last year would have submarined our year anyway.

OTOH, nobody knows what Hader would have fetched last offseason rather than at the deadline. Still, I'm happy with how things worked out.

That wasn't part of the original trade though. So for how condescending you're being about the deal that perspective is just not accurate. The original deal was pretty terrible value for all intents and purposes. Rogers torpedoed high leverage situations himself. Lamet was just an absorbed contract (more negative value for a small market). A lot has to be seen with Gasser still. Great shape to the slider but he is walking too many batters for my liking this year. Ruiz was arguably the centerpiece and he is just an awful ballplayer overall outside of stealing bases. The work Matt Arnold put in this summer completely saved it from a PR disaster. He took advantage of the league "taco" and now we can look back on the trade as a success. The original deal is far from it though.

[Fear The Chorizo]

3 hours ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

That wasn't part of the original trade though. So for how condescending you're being about the deal that perspective is just not accurate. The original deal was pretty terrible value for all intents and purposes. Rogers torpedoed high leverage situations himself. Lamet was just an absorbed contract (more negative value for a small market). A lot has to be seen with Gasser still. Great shape to the slider but he is walking too many batters for my liking this year. Ruiz was arguably the centerpiece and he is just an awful ballplayer overall outside of stealing bases. The work Matt Arnold put in this summer completely saved it from a PR disaster. He took advantage of the league "taco" and now we can look back on the trade as a success. The original deal is far from it though.

Ruiz wasn't the centerpiece - Gasser was....and the closer the Brewers got from San Diego actually outperformed Hader for most of the remaining 2022 season because Hader sucked most of August.

Gasser will make that trade worth it on his own compared to 1.5 seasons of Hader at about $18M in total salary, the fact they were able to turn Ruiz into Contreras and Payamps is some special gravy.

Ruiz is 24 yrs old and holding his own as a rookie - way too soon to label him an awful ballplayer when his batting average is over all other Brewers with a qualified amount of at bats besides Yelich and Contreras.  Ruiz lacks power and is still learning to play outfield (he was a 2B/IF for most of his minor league career), but Oakland is the perfect place for him to figure out how to play outfield.  When the trade was made the debate was about how the Brewers were able to make the deal with their 4th best high minors OF prospect - reality is that due to injuries and inconsistency, Wiemer is the only one of the three (Wiemer, Mitchell, Frelick) that has arguably outperformed Ruiz this season...and that's entirely due to his hitting power and more developed outfield defense.  If Mitchell could stay healthy I think he's the best of all of them, but the one consistent thing with him is he can't seem to stay on the field.  I think Frelick will be an everyday major leaguer but he's not as close to making a MLB impact as what many assumed at this point last season.  I'm glad they've kept Wiemer up to let him sort through MLB growing pains at the plate - really like what he could become as a right fielder even though he's been really good defensively in center.

 

[Redd Vencher]

6 hours ago, rickh150 said:

I think we would have been in with him. Just a small improvement would do….and then you never know. 
All in all, I’d hate to go back on it now with Contreras in the mix, but I assumed he would have been traded after 2022.

Rogers was better than Hader post trade.

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Rogers was better than Hader post trade.

By ERA yes but Hader’s worst outing was after he was temporarily demoted from high leverage. 
 

Rogers put up -1.02 WPA for the Brewers. Hader put up -0.24 WPA for the Padres.

Maybe Hader doesn’t get temporarily demoted/shut down if he stayed in Milwaukee so his WPA gets worse, but Rogers was worse than Hader in leverage spots after the trade. 

[KeithStone53151]

16 hours ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

That wasn't part of the original trade though. So for how condescending you're being about the deal that perspective is just not accurate. The original deal was pretty terrible value for all intents and purposes. Rogers torpedoed high leverage situations himself. Lamet was just an absorbed contract (more negative value for a small market). A lot has to be seen with Gasser still. Great shape to the slider but he is walking too many batters for my liking this year. Ruiz was arguably the centerpiece and he is just an awful ballplayer overall outside of stealing bases. The work Matt Arnold put in this summer completely saved it from a PR disaster. He took advantage of the league "taco" and now we can look back on the trade as a success. The original deal is far from it though.

The original deal appeared fair for both sides on paper, at least that's what I thought. But based on what we got for Ruiz...it's possible if not likely that prospect rankings pundits(and all of us) were completely wrong on the value of Ruiz. The prospect rankers I'm sure do a fine job, but they are lightyears behind the talent evaluation capabilities of mlb teams.

[jesusoftheapes]

On 7/1/2023 at 4:32 PM, wiguy94 said:

Hader's numbers are wrong. You aren't including last season's numbers, but this trade is a win for the Brewers. We ended up getting Gasser, Contreras, Payamps, And Yeager for 1 year and 2 months of Hader, a 3 out RP. Gasser had some early season command issues but has been incredible over the last 6-7 starts. Contreras is a well above average catcher with 5 years of control. Payamps has been a very dependable high leverage RP with 3 years of control. Yeager is a minor league RP who has intriguing stuff. 

Did the trade have some locker room impact last season? Yes, but I am still hesitant to say it's the reason we missed the playoffs considering we played basically the same level baseball from June 1st to the end of the season. 

Our high leverage bullpen has been the best in baseball this season. Leads in WPA. 1st in SD:MD ratio. 

All of you who were upset about this are CRAZY .  Airbender was a better closer and was ready and this entire team got built that day. 

[rickh150]

37 minutes ago, jesusoftheapes said:

All of you who were upset about this are CRAZY .  Airbender was a better closer and was ready and this entire team got built that day. 

I was upset AFTER the trade in 2022 and so were most, including manager and players. I am not anymore, but I still don’t get trading Hader at that moment in the season of a first place team. I think even Stearns and Arnold would not pull a trade like that again at deadline because of how it affected a clubhouse. 

And cannot agree with people who say Hader trade was a good one. Brewers missed the playoffs in 2022 largely because of that trade and you have to include a future trade gymnastics to make it look good. The Contreras trade was the crazy good one, perhaps 2nd best in franchise history, but that doesn’t make the Hader one ideal by itself. The Hader trade more likely now is a GM lesson of what not to do.

 

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

I was upset AFTER the trade in 2022 and so were most, including manager and players. I am not anymore, but I still don’t get trading Hader at that moment in the season of a first place team. I think even Stearns and Arnold would not pull a trade like that again at deadline because of how it affected a clubhouse. 

And cannot agree with people who say Hader trade was a good one. Brewers missed the playoffs in 2022 largely because of that trade and you have to include a future trade gymnastics to make it look good. The Contreras trade was the crazy good one, perhaps 2nd best in franchise history, but that doesn’t make the Hader one ideal by itself. The Hader trade more likely now is a GM lesson of what not to do.

 

6+ years of Robert Gasser is not future trade gymnastics....

Also, we've been over this many times. They did not miss the playoffs "largely because of the trade". They were not a good team after Memorial Day, which included Hader.

[dlk9s]

In addition to the future benefits of the trade, which have been obvious, it was not at all unreasonable for the Brewers front office to believe that Rogers could fill in just fine for the rest of the season. Sure, you lose a great closer (who was struggling mightily), but there was every reason to think that Williams could step in as the closer and Rogers could be a solid bullpen arm. The former was correct, the latter unfortunately did not work out.

The front office made a tough decision. They knew they couldn't/wouldn't pay Hader what he'd want, but they also knew he was integral to the team's success. They decided to get as much as they could for him, since they wouldn't get anything after the season. Didn't work out well that season (but as others have said, the team was scuffling before the trade, too), but has so far been incredible since.

Not every move works out. This one had mixed results, but the benefits have outweighed the negatives.

[shanedog19]

I was excited about this trade when it happened, and even more excited about it now. If the team truly collapsed over the trade of one player in 2022, then shame on them. The players all know its a business, but frankly I didn't think that team was very good even before the trade happened. Robert Gasser looks like a legit LH starting pitcher with many years of control, and the trade also allowed us the opportunity to trade for Contreras. I would do that deal again in a heartbeat.

[brewerfan82]

47 minutes ago, shanedog19 said:

If the team truly collapsed over the trade of one player in 2022, then shame on them.

Especially considering the trade included a player in Taylor Rogers that should have minimalized any dropoff in the bullpen. From 2020 to the trade in 2022, he compared very well to Hader:

Not to mention Rogers arguably performed "less bad" than Hader after the trade that year as well:

 

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

Especially considering the trade included a player in Taylor Rogers that should have minimalized any dropoff in the bullpen. From 2020 to the trade in 2022, he compared very well to Hader:

Not to mention Rogers arguably performed "less bad" than Hader after the trade that year as well:

 

Did you just use fWAR to compare for the top sample and ERA to compare in the bottom sample?

[brewerfan82]

12 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Did you just use fWAR to compare for the top sample and ERA to compare in the bottom sample?

Nope, lol, was looking over the entire stat lines as a whole. Do you disagree with one or both of the statements? Before the trade both were very very good pitchers with Hader being a little better in some areas (K/9) and Rogers a little better in others (half the BB and HR rates), but both with similar FIP/xFIP stats. After the trade both were bad, Rogers had a better K rate, BB rate, ERA, and xFIP, but was bit by the HR bug and you could argue he was equally bad, but that is why I said arguably.

[wiguy94]

33 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

Nope, lol, was looking over the entire stat lines as a whole. Do you disagree with one or both of the statements? Before the trade both were very very good pitchers with Hader being a little better in some areas (K/9) and Rogers a little better in others (half the BB and HR rates), but both with similar FIP/xFIP stats. After the trade both were bad, Rogers had a better K rate, BB rate, ERA, and xFIP, but was bit by the HR bug and you could argue he was equally bad, but that is why I said arguably.

Hader was way better over both samples at actually doing his job.

2020 to 2022 trade deadline - Hader had 6.34 WPA compared to Rogers -1.05 WPA. 

2022 trade deadline to end of 2022 season - Hader had -0.24 WPA compared to Rogers -1.02 WPA.

Hader was as elite as it gets as a RP. He's a potential HoFer. Rogers had good FIP numbers but the results stunk for a high leverage reliever.

[brewerfan82]

Fair enough, but the point was the likely results of downgrading from Hader to Rogers for about 20 innings pitched shouldn't have been and wasn't enough to be the main reason the Brewers missed the playoffs that year.

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

Fair enough, but the point was the likely results of downgrading from Hader to Rogers for about 20 innings pitched shouldn't have been and wasn't enough to be the main reason the Brewers missed the playoffs that year.

Yeah I agree with that. I said when this thread was originally made that the Brewers played pretty similar baseball the 2 months leading up to the deadline and the 2 months after the deadline. It wasn't like we suddenly tanked post deadline. Also it seems like the FO wanted to swing for a bat upgrade that same deadline, but it fell through. Robert Murray confirmed that the Brewers were trying to flip Esteury Ruiz that same deadline that we got him.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I agree that trading Hader had short-term negative effects. I think that's undeniable. I don't think those were inevitable. I think Rogers was bad in a small sample, and he was the piece intended to mitigate those impacts. If he performs wonderfully, I don't know that we're talking about this. He didn't, but was that really predictable? Team took a shot and missed.

But the long-term value they got was there and is paying dividends.

I don't fault them one bit for that trade. Sometimes, the results aren't what you want exactly, but these results are pretty good, and the process felt exactly right to me. The Brewers have to run by thinking in 2, 3, and 5 year increments. They've been very good at that over the last decade or so. In that sense, I don't know how anyone can villify this trade. You can mourn 2022 and the small but significant role the trade may have played in that, but I'll take these kinds of results every time.

[Weirdos19]

The fact that they turned approx 20 Hader appearances into Contreras, Payamps, and Gasser is incredible. I wouldn’t trade any of the three for Hader right now. 
 

The Brewers had a closer in waiting. And they always say you trade from a strength when you make your team better. 
 

I hope people don’t flip when we sign Contreras long term and trade Quero.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I kind of look at this as Gasser and Mitchell for Hader given the rumors the A’s would have taken either Ruiz or Mitchell. Still think there is a decent chance it works out positively, though.

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, Weirdos19 said:

The fact that they turned approx 20 Hader appearances into Contreras, Payamps, and Gasser is incredible. I wouldn’t trade any of the three for Hader right now. 
 

The Brewers had a closer in waiting. And they always say you trade from a strength when you make your team better. 
 

I hope people don’t flip when we sign Contreras long term and trade Quero.

It was a year and 20 appearances not that it changes the overall concept. Still incredible.