Trade proposal for Jimenez

[dave]

Uribe, Urias, Huira, for Eloy Jimenez... discuss 

[Team Canada]

Welcome!

[Jake McKibbin]

6 hours ago, dave said:

Uribe, Urias, Huira, for Eloy Jimenez... discuss 

Welcome Dave!

 

Jimenez has been on the injury list a lot in his career but he's a big big bat, and as such I can't see the Brewers getting him for this price unfortunately, given Hiura is up and down, Urias has really struggled this season, and Uribe is a potential quality reliever but I think Jimenez has team options through to 2026, making him a much longer shot. Would likely need someone like Jeferson Quero in there to even this up, or even Frelick!

The Brewers FO would absolute jump at this offer mind

[Jopal78]

Never happen for a few reasons.

First and foremost, the White Sox probably aren’t looking to tear it down with a first year manager, and a GM who out this core of players together. So to move Jimenez they’d likely need to be blown away.

Secondly, Uribe has velocity and late inning potential, but is far from a sure thing at this point.

Hiura has next to zero trade value, he was freely available talent once already this season. Not being on the 40 man roster and with his experience, he’s likely 3 months away from being a minor league free agent. Not the type of player teams are going to spend significant assets to acquire.

Same deal with Urias, his production has been going backwards since ‘21, he is making almost 5 million dollars a season and is currently lost at the plate in AAA.  Without a big turn around soon, Urias is a probable non-tender. 

[Jake McKibbin]

24 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Never happen for a few reasons.

First and foremost, the White Sox probably aren’t looking to tear it down with a first year manager, and a GM who out this core of players together. So to move Jimenez they’d likely need to be blown away.

Secondly, Uribe has velocity and late inning potential, but is far from a sure thing at this point.

Hiura has next to zero trade value, he was freely available talent once already this season. Not being on the 40 man roster and with his experience, he’s likely 3 months away from being a minor league free agent. Not the type of player teams are going to spend significant assets to acquire.

Same deal with Urias, his production has been going backwards since ‘21, he is making almost 5 million dollars a season and is currently lost at the plate in AAA.  Without a big turn around soon, Urias is a probable non-tender. 

I think Urias just needs a little tweaking, he's getting better and showing signs, hopefully be right as rain at some point later this season, or next year but minimal trade value now.

Jimenez would be a huge get for the Brewers, and I wonder how much Value Garrett Mitchell has as well in a trade.. anyway I digress, White Sox are kind of doing a rebuild with some starting pitchers getting traded this off season and not lots coming through so would likely listen to the right offer, but will definitely want something more as I think they'd prefer to keep him

[wallus]

This is a pretty good trade for the White Sox as Jimenez doesn't have a ton of trade value.

I do not want to trade future closer Uribe so I would say no to this one. Hiura has no trade value but if they want him, sure. 

Brewers: Jimenez

White Sox: EBJ and Lauer

They can try and get Lauer back to being a good pitcher and EBJ is a good prospect. Going off of the Trade Values website, this is an overpay for the Brewers but we may see some interesting things in a major sellers market.

[Jopal78]

29 minutes ago, wallus said:

This is a pretty good trade for the White Sox as Jimenez doesn't have a ton of trade value.

I do not want to trade future closer Uribe so I would say no to this one. Hiura has no trade value but if they want him, sure. 

Brewers: Jimenez

White Sox: EBJ and Lauer

They can try and get Lauer back to being a good pitcher and EBJ is a good prospect. Going off of the Trade Values website, this is an overpay for the Brewers but we may see some interesting things in a major sellers market.

26 years old, .825 career OPS in 1400 career PAs, under team control through 2026 at an AAV at 15+ million. 
 

True he has dealt with injuries, but his career OPS+ is 122, that’s better offensive production than Richie Sexson, Willy Adames and a hair behind Arenado. I would say he has a great deal of value.
 

Yes, I get the White Sox are a moribund team having a particularly bad season. However it does not also  mean all their players are low value and they’re looking to do a tear down.
 

The reality is the price it would take for them to move players they don’t have to like Jimenez, Robert etc. would be the type of prospect capital the Brewers simply wouldn’t trade.

Impending free agents: Lance Lynn, Grandal, Giolito Reynaldo López, Joe Kelly etc are a different story— they’ll likely move them all for whatever they can get.

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

True he has dealt with injuries, but his career OPS+ is 122, that’s better offensive production than Richie Sexson, Willy Adames and a hair behind Arenado. I would say he has a great deal of value.

122 wRC+ is certainly nice but Jimenez can’t play in the field without getting hurt and he’s terrible when he’s out there. So he’s pretty exclusively a DH and 2 players you’re comparing him to are elite defensive players at SS and 3B .

The contract is fair but it’s not some bargain that gives him a bunch of trade value and putting Jimenez in vicinity of a guy like Robert is super disingenuous. 

[KeithStone53151]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Never happen for a few reasons.

First and foremost, the White Sox probably aren’t looking to tear it down with a first year manager, and a GM who out this core of players together. So to move Jimenez they’d likely need to be blown away.

Secondly, Uribe has velocity and late inning potential, but is far from a sure thing at this point.

Hiura has next to zero trade value, he was freely available talent once already this season. Not being on the 40 man roster and with his experience, he’s likely 3 months away from being a minor league free agent. Not the type of player teams are going to spend significant assets to acquire.

Same deal with Urias, his production has been going backwards since ‘21, he is making almost 5 million dollars a season and is currently lost at the plate in AAA.  Without a big turn around soon, Urias is a probable non-tender. 

This sentence doesn't really make sense. This would actually be a retooling and gaining team control, in theory this type of trade would make more sense for a team trying to contend in 2024 than one involving prospects in AA and below. There's probably not enough here unless they reeeeeally like Uribe, because Hiura/Urias have very little value right now.

I also generally disagree with your take on Uribe. The guy is making mince meat of mlb hitters right now. I think you'd be a bit surprised what he'd be valued at currently, considering his contract/team control situation. Not equal to Jimenez, but this is a guy with the stuff/trajectory to be competing for our closer job in a year or two. It's generally difficult to value guys like Uribe, guys with huge upside but super early into their team control...especially a reliever. And with any pitcher, there's the inherent risk of being 1 throw away from missing a year and a half and losing 3 mph on the fastball at full recovery. There's a wide range of possible valuation, I don't see a current non-contender valuing him where needed to make sense to us.

[Jopal78]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

122 wRC+ is certainly nice but Jimenez can’t play in the field without getting hurt and he’s terrible when he’s out there. So he’s pretty exclusively a DH and 2 players you’re comparing him to are elite defensive players at SS and 3B .

The contract is fair but it’s not some bargain that gives him a bunch of trade value and putting Jimenez in vicinity of a guy like Robert is super disingenuous. 

Hitting is hitting. OPS+ is a hitting stat, so there is a relevance issue with your comments about defense. 

My point is: Jimenez is 26, has been a significantly better hitter than average and is cost controlled for years down the road. Considering that in today’s game even a mediocre free agent hitter costs in the neighborhood of 10 million a season, Jimenez’s contract makes him that much more valuable. 

[Jopal78]

16 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

This sentence doesn't really make sense. This would actually be a retooling and gaining team control, in theory this type of trade would make more sense for a team trying to contend in 2024 than one involving prospects in AA and below. There's probably not enough here unless they reeeeeally like Uribe, because Hiura/Urias have very little value right now.

I also generally disagree with your take on Uribe. The guy is making mince meat of mlb hitters right now. I think you'd be a bit surprised what he'd be valued at currently, considering his contract/team control situation. Not equal to Jimenez, but this is a guy with the stuff/trajectory to be competing for our closer job in a year or two. It's generally difficult to value guys like Uribe, guys with huge upside but super early into their team control...especially a reliever. And with any pitcher, there's the inherent risk of being 1 throw away from missing a year and a half and losing 3 mph on the fastball at full recovery. There's a wide range of possible valuation, I don't see a current non-contender valuing him where needed to make sense to us.

Of course it makes sense. Jimenez is an above average major league hitter under team control through 2026. He has had his share of injuries, but Jimenez isn’t the problem with the White Sox.

To trade him suggests they 1.) got blown away by an offer— which certainly is not two stiffs like Hiura and Urias and a relief pitcher. 2.) they’re taking it down to the studs to completely rebuild, which isn’t happening. 
 

As for Uribe, I’d encourage you to take off the prospect love glasses. I agree he has an electric arm and you cannot teach triple digit velocity, BUT he had MAJOR command issues in the minor leagues, and has pitched a whopping 4 innings in the majors.
 

Which leaves two possibilities, Uribe magically solved his command issues, or he hasn’t gotten exposed  in the majors yet.

Maybe he’ll figure it out and be a dominant late inning reliever for years, but a relief pitcher walking nearly 7 batters per 9 won’t cut it in the majors, and nobody at this point  knows which outcome is more likely. That means his value simply isn’t as great as you think because there is a ton of risk with him going forward. 

[KeithStone53151]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Of course it makes sense. Jimenez is an above average major league hitter under team control through 2026. He has had his share of injuries, but Jimenez isn’t the problem with the White Sox.

To trade him suggests they 1.) got blown away by an offer— which certainly is not two stiffs like Hiura and Urias and a relief pitcher. 2.) they’re taking it down to the studs to completely rebuild, which isn’t happening. 
 

As for Uribe, I’d encourage you to take off the prospect love glasses. I agree he has an electric arm and you cannot teach triple digit velocity, BUT he had MAJOR command issues in the minor leagues, and has pitched a whopping 4 innings in the majors.
 

Which leaves two possibilities, Uribe magically solved his command issues, or he hasn’t gotten exposed  in the majors yet.

Maybe he’ll figure it out and be a dominant late inning reliever for years, but a relief pitcher walking nearly 7 batters per 9 won’t cut it in the majors, and nobody at this point  knows which outcome is more likely. That means his value simply isn’t as great as you think because there is a ton of risk with him going forward. 

I think I made clear with Uribe there's a wide range of valuation because it's not really clear how he's going to pan out. It's also extremely typical for younger pitchers to have command issues and improve on them as they get older. I looked at a few successful hard throwing relievers including Williams, Hader, Alexis Diaz, Jordan Hicks, etc...all these guys were walking 5ish per 9 in the minors before coming up. Heck a lot of these guys are still walking 4-5 per 9 as successful mlb arms. If Uribe throws 80 innings in the majors like Devin Williams or Josh Hader, he'll be worth a lot more than Jimenez is right now considering his contract...so there's something to be said about getting in on an arm like him early before the valuation explodes.

And regarding Jimenez, I feel like you have way too much love for a bat only player. Compare him to JD Martinez, it's probably as favorable a comparison as you'll be able to get. JD Martinez has a history of staying healthy, and was a below average defender until 2021 where he switched to mostly DH. Excluding the COVID year, JD Martinez worst 3 seasons over the last 10 years are better than Eloy's best 3 seasons ever. JD Martinez in 2018, at his absolute peak value, was valued at $110M over 5 years on the open market. Eloy's current contract(with options) is 3 years roughly $50 million. That contract is maybe fair market value right now? I personally would rather have JD Martinez for 1 year $10 million he just signed for on the open market than pay Eloy 3/$50 million. So you continue to claim he has all this team control when in reality, the team control kinda sucks. I mean, the Angels have team control on Rendon...but what's that worth?

[KeithStone53151]

Valuations on the Brewers players is difficult, but Jimenez has 5 years of data and has a negative FMV. Which is additional support that you are way way way way way way way off on his valuation

[Matt Breen]

Jimenez would need to be full time DH. Which is probably what he's best at. He'd be a real asset there. Otherwise, the return isn't much. But Jimenez has not really produced a lot - and is due some pretty good coin. 

Jimenez might benefit from a new situation. 

[Jopal78]

31 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Valuations on the Brewers players is difficult, but Jimenez has 5 years of data and has a negative FMV. Which is additional support that you are way way way way way way way off on his valuation

Ha, that website is a joke, I don’t really care what it says. (According to that website the Brewers would be getting hosed trading Yelich for Trout straight up).

It’s a classic Brewerfan trope to dump on some other team’s players while boosting the value of the organizations own players— but the real inquiry is what it would cost to buy a 26 year old with a career OPS+ of 122 as a free agent. Without a doubt more than 3yrs/49 million. Heck, I don’t think a team could even sign such a player for just three years let alone the AAV. 
 

As to the JD Martinez reference, there’s a reason he’s playing on a 1yr/10 million dollar deal— he’s 36 and had a .790 OPS last year. That’s exactly what you get for 10 million dollars in the free agent market— aging players coming off bad seasons. 
 

Finally as for Uribe his walks per 9 ratio in the minors was more than 50%  higher than Hader and Williams.
 

Like I said, he either figured out his command overnight, or he hasn’t gotten exposed yet in his 4 innings. Time will tell. 
 

I do know, he won’t be a late inning reliever walking that many per 9. Exactly what is the value of a middle reliever/long man who walks almost 7 batters per 9? Zilch. That’s what hurts his value.. the risk that he can be a nothing .

[sveumrules]

8 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Ha, that website is a joke, I don’t really care what it says. (According to that website the Brewers would be getting hosed trading Yelich for Trout straight up).

Trout has eight years and $284M left on his deal compared to five years and $137M for Yelich after this year.

Of course Trout is a better player, but the extra three years and $147M in compensation he is owed eats into his surplus value considerably in comparison to Yelich.

[Jopal78]

23 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Trout has eight years and $284M left on his deal compared to five years and $137M for Yelich after this year.

Of course Trout is a better player, but the extra three years and $147M in compensation he is owed eats into his surplus value considerably in comparison to Yelich.

So what? Talent costs money, and Trout is nearly twice the player Yelich is. (an 85 career WAR in 5400 games. Yelich is 39 WAR in 5000 games), but his AAV 35.5 million on his contract isn’t twice what Yelich is paid in his (27.4 million AAV).

Trout is an absolute bargain when compared to Yelich.  In fact, it’s probably a good bet Trout’s production over the next five years outpaces Yelich’s to such an extent that it makes the extra three years worth it. 

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

So what? Talent costs money, and Trout is nearly twice the player Yelich is. (an 85 career WAR in 5400 games. Yelich is 39 WAR in 5000 games), but his AAV 35.5 million) in his contract isn’t twice what Yelich is paid in his (27.4 million AAV).

Trout is an absolute bargain when compared to Yelich.  In fact, it’s probably a good bet Trout’s production over the next five years outpaces Yelich’s to such an extent that it makes the extra three years worth it. 

Trout (was) twice the player Yelich is. That's all that WAR total you're highlighting means.

The current iteration of Trout (which is what really matters in assessing trade value), has missed 190 games and counting over the last three seasons while not quite being at the same peak with the bat (137 wRC+ this year vs. 176 in 2022 and 189 in 2021). Meanwhile, Yelich is having a resurgent season and is t7 in all the majors in fWAR. 

All this with Trout being owed an extra 3 years and $147 million in compensation, which will pay him to his age 40 season. With his increasing injury frequency, that eats into what ever advantage Trout has statistically over Yelich. 

 

 

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

So what? Talent costs money, and Trout is nearly twice the player Yelich is. (an 85 career WAR in 5400 games. Yelich is 39 WAR in 5000 games), but his AAV 35.5 million) in his contract isn’t twice what Yelich is paid in his (27.4 million AAV).

Trout is an absolute bargain when compared to Yelich.  In fact, it’s probably a good bet Trout’s production over the next five years outpaces Yelich’s to such an extent that it makes the extra three years worth it. 

Career WAR is irrelevant to what they are owed moving forward, that production has already been bought and paid for. Trout is getting paid 8/284 and Yelich 5/137 for their production from 2024 onward.

Again, there is no doubt that Trout is better and likely to outproduce Yelich, but by almost $150M? That is a big ask. Especially when Trout is at 3.1 WAR this year and hurt again while Yelich is looking resurgent at 3.6 WAR so far.   

Even if both players waived their NTCs and hit the trade market, only a small handful of teams could afford the money left on Trout's deal, which will also eat into his surplus value relative to Yelich's much more affordable contract which would be palatable to a larger number of clubs.

[KeithStone53151]

37 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Ha, that website is a joke, I don’t really care what it says. (According to that website the Brewers would be getting hosed trading Yelich for Trout straight up).

It’s a classic Brewerfan trope to dump on some other team’s players while boosting the value of the organizations own players— but the real inquiry is what it would cost to buy a 26 year old with a career OPS+ of 122 as a free agent. Without a doubt more than 3yrs/49 million. Heck, I don’t think a team could even sign such a player for just three years let alone the AAV. 
 

As to the JD Martinez reference, there’s a reason he’s playing on a 1yr/10 million dollar deal— he’s 36 and had a .790 OPS last year. That’s exactly what you get for 10 million dollars in the free agent market— aging players coming off bad seasons. 
 

Finally as for Uribe his walks per 9 ratio in the minors was more than 50%  higher than Hader and Williams.
 

Like I said, he either figured out his command overnight, or he hasn’t gotten exposed yet in his 4 innings. Time will tell. 
 

I do know, he won’t be a late inning reliever walking that many per 9. Exactly what is the value of a middle reliever/long man who walks almost 7 batters per 9? Zilch. That’s what hurts his value.. the risk that he can be a nothing .

JD Martinez - 790 OPS = bad season. Eloy Jimenez - 825 career OPS = above average hitter...

You're right, we should ignore that website. You're definitely better positioned to judge the value of players than that website. You'd have a better argument if that was the only support I provided. I honestly am not going to further dispute this with you because you don't debate in good faith. You're ignoring the comparable contract JD Martinez signed at age 29 when he was on his 4th consecutive season of 139+ OPS each season. You're ignoring the fact that Eloy can't stay healthy. You're ignoring the fact that Eloy can't be even a below average defender at any position. You're ignoring the fact that he's a negative on the bases. You're cherry-picking certain offensive metrics that paint Eloy in a positive light and trying to drive home a valuation based on that while ignoring all offsetting negatives. Every commenter so far on this topic has disagreed with you on this.

[KeithStone53151]

I went over to a white sox forum, with my goal to find some slightly white sox biased viewpoints on the value of jimenez to get a general gauge in comparison to my thoughts. Do they view him as an all star if he can stay healthy? A core piece? Is he in fan-created trades? etc. I stopped when I found this...say what you want about bfnet overvaluing prospects, but there's no universe that Jake Burger is worth these 2, or even half of one of them.

"I think Burger ends up with Brewers, he's blocked here for the forseeable future by Vaughn and Eloy, his value is at an all time high, and he fits their needs and window. Something like Jeferson Quero and Tyler back coming back this way."

Edit - I actually like Burger as a target. The last 2 years he's obliterated LH pitching, and he's a perfect fit for what we're looking for. But again, we can get him for a small fraction of the above suggestion.

[dave]

At any rate... Either Jimenez or Burger would both make great sense for the Brewers. We have the prospects to get it done.  The problem with the White Sox is it looks like they are probably going to shake up their management. I'll bet it's difficult to know who is making the decisions

[Jopal78]

52 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

JD Martinez - 790 OPS = bad season. Eloy Jimenez - 825 career OPS = above average hitter...

You're right, we should ignore that website. You're definitely better positioned to judge the value of players than that website. You'd have a better argument if that was the only support I provided. I honestly am not going to further dispute this with you because you don't debate in good faith. You're ignoring the comparable contract JD Martinez signed at age 29 when he was on his 4th consecutive season of 139+ OPS each season. You're ignoring the fact that Eloy can't stay healthy. You're ignoring the fact that Eloy can't be even a below average defender at any position. You're ignoring the fact that he's a negative on the bases. You're cherry-picking certain offensive metrics that paint Eloy in a positive light and trying to drive home a valuation based on that while ignoring all offsetting negatives. Every commenter so far on this topic has disagreed with you on this.

I said, 822 OPs+ which would mean 22% better than league average, or at least that’s how MLB defines that metric, agree or not…. And I haven’t cherry picked any metrics but OPS+.

We both know all teams have the DH now, so Jimenez not being a good defender is irrelevant and doesn’t figure into his OPS+ stat I cited anyhow. 

I will add a contract JD Martinez signed 7! years ago means absolutely nothing because salaries have exploded since then, especially since the signing of the most recent CBA. 

If you want to believe a hard throwing rookie relief pitcher without demonstrable major league command is close to fair value for an above average 26 year old cost controlled major league hitter even with injury issues go for it.

 

 

[Jopal78]

55 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I went over to a white sox forum, with my goal to find some slightly white sox biased viewpoints on the value of jimenez to get a general gauge in comparison to my thoughts. Do they view him as an all star if he can stay healthy? A core piece? Is he in fan-created trades? etc. I stopped when I found this...say what you want about bfnet overvaluing prospects, but there's no universe that Jake Burger is worth these 2, or even half of one of them.

"I think Burger ends up with Brewers, he's blocked here for the forseeable future by Vaughn and Eloy, his value is at an all time high, and he fits their needs and window. Something like Jeferson Quero and Tyler back coming back this way."

Edit - I actually like Burger as a target. The last 2 years he's obliterated LH pitching, and he's a perfect fit for what we're looking for. But again, we can get him for a small fraction of the above suggestion.

Hahaha, sure. They drafted Burger 11th overall in ‘17, and he’s been okay hitter and is pre-arbitration eleigible. I’m sure the Sox will just give him away for spare parts. 
 

Wait! What does that junk trade evaluator site say?! Black AND Mitchell is only a slight overpay… sacrilege!

 

 

[KeithStone53151]

1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

Hahaha, sure. They drafted Burger 11th overall in ‘17, and he’s been okay hitter and is pre-arbitration eleigible. I’m sure the Sox will just give him away for spare parts. 
 

Wait! What does that junk trade evaluator site say?! Black AND Mitchell is only a slight overpay… sacrilege!

 

 

This doesn't have the intended effect, as I didn't use this website as my only source of information. I also ventured much further into my analysis than OPS+ and remaining years on contract. I also don't have every other poster on this site involved in the topic disagreeing with me.