Brewers (Rea) vs Braves (Smith-Shawver): 7/30/23, 12:35pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Woof, can we just fast-forward until the Brewers are no longer playing the Braves?

[treego14]

[BruisedCrew]

The Braves have lost series to the White Sox, DBacks (who aren’t beating anyone else), and Red Sox, but they are pounding on the Brewers. Haven’t seen Strider, Fried, or Morton either. 
 

Kind of a sobering reminder of what the Brewers would be up against if they had to face the Braves in a 7 game series. 

[brewerfan82]

12 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

The Braves have lost series to the White Sox, DBacks (who aren’t beating anyone else), and Red Sox, but they are pounding on the Brewers. Haven’t seen Strider, Fried, or Morton either. 
 

Kind of a sobering reminder of what the Brewers would be up against if they had to face the Braves in a 7 game series. 

Well the Braves haven't faced Burnes or Woodruff at all and Peralta only once in these 5 games. The Brewers' pixie dust may have run out a little with their hodge-podge back of the rotation recently and the Braves have been able to take advantage of that. Woody's going to have to return strong, Peralta's going to need to find consistency, and Burnes is going to need to be Burnes for this team to go on a run. But if those three perform (and the bats play up a little with the additions of Frelick, Santana, and hopefully one more still to come), the team the Braves potentially face in the playoffs could be pretty significantly different than the one they've seen in a couple mid-season series so far.

The Braves definitely are impressive and the team to beat in the NL, but I wouldn't call a playoff series win against them an impossible feat just yet.

[BruisedCrew]

2 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

The Braves definitely are impressive and the team to beat in the NL, but I wouldn't call a playoff series win against them an impossible feat just yet.

For the record I did not say “impossible”. 

But your summary highlights that the Brewers would need a lot of “ifs” to go their way to win a 7 game series against the Braves.

 

[SF70]

19 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

The Braves have lost series to the White Sox, DBacks (who aren’t beating anyone else), and Red Sox, but they are pounding on the Brewers. Haven’t seen Strider, Fried, or Morton either. 
 

Kind of a sobering reminder of what the Brewers would be up against if they had to face the Braves in a 7 game series. 

Or any team for that matter, being the best team in baseball.

The Brewers are the biggest wild card team in baseball, and it’s not just because of getting Woodruff-Miley and Ashby back soon.

Its the potential positive regression of Adames, development of Turang-Wiemer at the plate, Urias finding his stroke, Hiura’s possible addition and potentially more offense acquired in the next 2 1/2 days.

This team could be a force entering September (Craigtember).

[edfunderburk]

13 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Or any team for that matter, being the best team in baseball.

The Brewers are the biggest wild card team in baseball, and it’s not just because of getting Woodruff-Miley and Ashby back soon.

Its the potential positive regression of Adames, development of Turang-Wiemer at the plate, Urias finding his stroke, Hiura’s possible addition and potentially more offense acquired in the next 2 1/2 days.

This team could be a force entering September (Craigtember).

Great post … except for the Hiura comment

[sveumrules]

51 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

The Braves have lost series to the White Sox, DBacks (who aren’t beating anyone else), and Red Sox, but they are pounding on the Brewers. Haven’t seen Strider, Fried, or Morton either. 
 

Kind of a sobering reminder of what the Brewers would be up against if they had to face the Braves in a 7 game series. 

The first paragraph pretty perfectly encapsulates how much randomness is truly at play over any three game series.

Sure, the better team wins the series more often than not, but not always. Over fifty some series a year, even the very best team will inevitably lose some, even to bad teams.

The playoffs are a little different with a gauntlet of slightly longer five and seven game series, but how often does the “favorite” actually make it through?

FanGraphs historical Playoff Odds go back to 2014, let’s check it and see with WS Odds at the start of the playoffs in the parentheses…

2014
Faves: DET (18.6%) WAS (19.5%)
Actual: KCR (4.9%) SFG (3.2%) 

2015
Faves: TOR (13.6%) LAD (22.9%)
Actual: KCR (11.0%) NYM (9.2%)

2016
Faves: BOS (18.1%) CHC (18.7%)
Actual: CLE (8.8%) CHC (18.7%)

2017
Faves: CLE (22.1%) LAD (16.6%)
Actual: HOU (15.1%) LAD (16.6%)

2018
Faves: HOU (24.0%) LAD (21.0%)
Actual: BOS (15.4%) LAD (21.0%)

2019
Faves: HOU (35.2%) LAD (16.7%)
Actual: HOU (35.2%) WAS (7.6%)

2020
Faves: NYY (8.1%) LAD (20.0%)
Actual: TBR (5.6%) LAD (20.0%)

2021
Faves: HOU (15.5%) LAD (16.9%)
Actual: HOU (15.5%) ATL (9.6%)

2022
Faves: HOU (17.2%) ATL (16.9%)
Actual: HOU (17.2%) PHI (5.9%)

Being the best team certainly helps but didn’t mean anything in 2014-15.

Over the last seven WS the Cubs Dynasty once and the Dodgers/Astros thrice each have made the WS as favorites, but the other seven WS entrants over that stretch came from the field.

The underdogs have gone 4-3 in those most recent seven WS with the 2016 Cubs, 2020 Dodgers and 2022 Astros the only “favorites” to win it all.

 

[MVP2110]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The first paragraph pretty perfectly encapsulates how much randomness is truly at play over any three game series.

Sure, the better team wins the series more often than not, but not always. Over fifty some series a year, even the very best team will inevitably lose some, even to bad teams.

The playoffs are a little different with a gauntlet of slightly longer five and seven game series, but how often does the “favorite” actually make it through?

FanGraphs historical Playoff Odds go back to 2014, let’s check it and see with WS Odds at the start of the playoffs in the parentheses…

2014
Faves: DET (18.6%) WAS (19.5%)
Actual: KCR (4.9%) SFG (3.2%) 

2015
Faves: TOR (13.6%) LAD (22.9%)
Actual: KCR (11.0) NYM (9.2%)

2016
Faves: BOS (18.1%) CHC (18.7%)
Actual: CLE (8.8%) CHC (18.7%)

2017
Faves: CLE (22.1%) LAD (16.6%)
Actual: HOU (15.1%) LAD (16.6%)

2018
Faves: HOU (24.0%) LAD (21.0%)
Actual: BOS (15.4%) LAD (21.0%)

2019
Faves: HOU (35.2%) LAD (16.7%)
Actual: HOU (35.2%) WAS (7.6%)

2020
Faves: NYY (8.1%) LAD (20.0%)
Actual: TBR (5.6%) LAD (20.0%)

2021
Faves: HOU (15.5%) LAD (16.9%)
Actual: HOU (15.5%) ATL (9.6%)

2022
Faves: HOU (17.2%) ATL (16.9%)
Actual: HOU (17.2%) PHI (5.9%) 

Being the best team certainly helps but didn’t mean anything in 2014-15.

Over the last seven WS the Cubs Dynasty once and the Dodgers/Astros thrice each have made the WS as favorites, but the other seven WS entrants over that stretch came from the field.

The underdogs have gone 5-2 in those most recent seven WS with only the 2016 Cubs and 2020 Dodgers the only “favorites” to win it all.

 

The Astros won last year

[sveumrules]

Just now, MVP2110 said:

The Astros won last year

Whoops, bolded wrong team. So 4-3 for the underdogs over the last seven WS.

[Devinep]

 

[RWeeksFan23]

For anyone familiar with analytics, how does Smith-Shawver have an xERA of 3.20, but yet has a stuff+82, location+92 pitching+88? 

In other words, awesome xERA, but awful stuff/command?

[sveumrules]

10 minutes ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

For anyone familiar with analytics, how does Smith-Shawver have an xERA of 3.20, but yet has a stuff+82, location+92 pitching+88? 

In other words, awesome xERA, but awful stuff/command?

Probably a couple things going on here.

Its a small sample, so lotsa noise from the outset, though the plus stats are supposed to stabilize pretty quickly relative to other stats.

But I think it’s mostly a case of measuring different things. xERA essentially just converts xwOBA to an ERA scale so it is measuring K/BB/HR rates together with StatCast batted ball results.

The various plus numbers are only telling us about the raw pitch characteristics, I don’t believe they take actual results into account.

What they tell me all together is AJSS hasn't had the best stuff or command in his 16 IP this year, but he has been inducing weak contact.

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

The first paragraph pretty perfectly encapsulates how much randomness is truly at play over any three game series.

Sure, the better team wins the series more often than not, but not always. Over fifty some series a year, even the very best team will inevitably lose some, even to bad teams.

The playoffs are a little different with a gauntlet of slightly longer five and seven game series, but how often does the “favorite” actually make it through?

FanGraphs historical Playoff Odds go back to 2014, let’s check it and see with WS Odds at the start of the playoffs in the parentheses…

2014
Faves: DET (18.6%) WAS (19.5%)
Actual: KCR (4.9%) SFG (3.2%) 

2015
Faves: TOR (13.6%) LAD (22.9%)
Actual: KCR (11.0%) NYM (9.2%)

2016
Faves: BOS (18.1%) CHC (18.7%)
Actual: CLE (8.8%) CHC (18.7%)

2017
Faves: CLE (22.1%) LAD (16.6%)
Actual: HOU (15.1%) LAD (16.6%)

2018
Faves: HOU (24.0%) LAD (21.0%)
Actual: BOS (15.4%) LAD (21.0%)

2019
Faves: HOU (35.2%) LAD (16.7%)
Actual: HOU (35.2%) WAS (7.6%)

2020
Faves: NYY (8.1%) LAD (20.0%)
Actual: TBR (5.6%) LAD (20.0%)

2021
Faves: HOU (15.5%) LAD (16.9%)
Actual: HOU (15.5%) ATL (9.6%)

2022
Faves: HOU (17.2%) ATL (16.9%)
Actual: HOU (17.2%) PHI (5.9%)

Being the best team certainly helps but didn’t mean anything in 2014-15.

Over the last seven WS the Cubs Dynasty once and the Dodgers/Astros thrice each have made the WS as favorites, but the other seven WS entrants over that stretch came from the field.

The underdogs have gone 4-3 in those most recent seven WS with the 2016 Cubs, 2020 Dodgers and 2022 Astros the only “favorites” to win it all.

 

Most of what you're saying is talking around the point I was making.

I should have made it clearer that the 3 series I mentioned are not just any  random series that took place this season, but are the Braves 3 most recent series other than the two Brewers series. So, it isn't like the Brewers are catching the Braves when they are exceptionally hot. 

The historical summary of teams winning the World Series has nothing to do with my comment about what the Brewers (even with a few roster changes) would face if they played the Braves in a 7 game series. I never said that underdogs can’t win short series, and don’t need to be reminded that they do win them. . I don't think anyone has said anything that suggests that they think the Brewers would be anything other than heavy underdogs if they faced the Braves in a 7 game series, and probably wouldn't win.

My point never was that the Braves are inevitably going to win the World Series. When the favorites to win the series have probabilities of winning in the 15-20% range, it should be expected that the top favorite, or even one of the top 2 favorites will not win half the time or more. And, occasionally a team farther back in the field will get hot and win. If it comes down to the favorite to win the World Series vs "The Field", a record of 3-4 is actually pretty high.

 

 

 

[JefferyLeonard]

Anyone else having issues with the Bally broadcast? Since last night with Directv, it's like...slow. What I mean is, you can hear the ball pop in the catchers mitt at least a full second AFTER it's actually happened. It's strange

[adambr2]

About as predictable as a bottom of the 1st as you'll ever see. 

[HarryDoyle]

Welp, the Brewers can't take advantage of a golden opportunity so the Braves gave one to them.

 

[HarryDoyle]

....Only to give it up right away.

[Brewcrew82]

That was a good pitch...

[Brewcrew82]

Well, we were going to have to score more than one run anyways.

[yfinn6]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

That was a good pitch...

Adames would've watched it to swing at a pitch at his shoulders. 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, yfinn6 said:

Adames would've watched it to swing at a pitch at his shoulders. 

No argument there.

[Brewcrew82]

Again, if CC isn't here next year, they need to go outside the organization and hire Kevin Seitzer as manager.

[treego14]

Don’t be discouraged!

We are the best small market team in MLB!

[yourout]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

Or any team for that matter, being the best team in baseball.

The Brewers are the biggest wild card team in baseball, and it’s not just because of getting Woodruff-Miley and Ashby back soon.

Its the potential positive regression of Adames, development of Turang-Wiemer at the plate, Urias finding his stroke, Hiura’s possible addition and potentially more offense acquired in the next 2 1/2 days.

This team could be a force entering September (Craigtember).

I think the odds of winning Megabucks are better than all of those things happening.