Article: No Team in MLB Wants to Run Into the Brewers in October

[Matthew Trueblood]

No team is as good as they look at their best, or as bad as they look at their worst. Even accounting for that fact, though, the Brewers currently look really, really good.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres limped into town this weekend like an old dog needing to be put down. It's not the fact that the Brewers won their sixth straight game Friday night that prompts me to say this, because their opponent wasn't up to the challenge. Rather, it's the way they won, and some of the contributors who got a chance to remind everyone how dynamic they are.

Rowdy Tellez is not fully restored to the 2022 version, and we probably shouldn't expect him to be so at any point this year. With his first home run since returning from the injured list, though, he reminded everyone how deep this lineup starts to feel if some of the guys in the middle of the order warm up enough to start consistently driving in Christian Yelich and William Contreras. Carlos Santana, Willy Adames, and Tellez have each recently demonstrated that they still have access to their considerable power, and with Yelich (.371) and Contreras (.353) running strong on-base percentages in front of them, that's a recipe for quick runs.

The really dazzling thing about Friday's win, though, was the pitching. Brandon Woodruff pulverized any remaining doubts about his status not only as fully recovered from the injury that cost him half the season, but the ace of this rotation, with 11 strikeouts and a lone solo home run allowed in six innings, all against a good Padres offense. Then, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill really put on a show. The 24 fastest pitches of the night were thrown by those two, ranging from 99.3 up to 102.1 miles per hour, and Woodruff himself came in 25th--not with an overheated first-inning missile, but with a fastball to strike out Fernando Tatis in the fifth frame.

Add these guys and their overwhelming upside to a pitching staff that had already carried the team this far--with Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams, and Joel Payamps leading the way--and you have the most formidable corps of arms of any team in baseball. It's frightening to think that they could still add someone like Jacob Misiorowski to that mix, but Friday night only underscored that they don't even need to do so. Their depth is staggering. Plenty of teams would be thrilled to insert Adrian Houser into their rotation, or Elvis Peguero or Hoby Milner into their bullpen. On the Brewers, those guys are on the fringes.

That group is finally convalescing and coalescing, at just the right time, but the team was able to survive even while they were well short of full strength thanks to one of the best defenses in baseball. If Adames continues to pull out of his funk at the plate, it further alleviates the pressure on that group, because he can remain the everyday shortstop, and Brice Turang can stay at second base, where he's a stellar defender. If Tellez can meet the high threshold to be a useful DH, then Santana can play every day at first base, where he's a significant defensive upgrade. The more those guys hit, the less the team needs to swap the defensive prowess of Brian Anderson for the extra lineup depth of Andruw Monasterio. Tellez settling in as a platoon DH would make it easier for Craig Counsell to optimize the balance between offense and defense in his outfield options. We could see a lot of creative mid-game substitutions down the stretch involving Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Tyrone Taylor, Mark Canha, and Blake Perkins.

In defiance of conventional wisdom, I'm a firm believer that (if anything) high-powered offense is the key to October success. In general, it's better to bet on the best team in any playoff matchup, but to keep in mind that the margins are shockingly thin and that quality will not always win the day. Certainly, there's no one formula for converting playoff appearances to World Series rings. Just as certainly, there are teams who can be much better than the Brewers when they're at their very best.

Still, at this moment, I'm not convinced that anyone would feel good about their chances against this team in a short series. The sheer stuff of the pitching staff, especially with the back end of the rotation and the underbelly of the bullpen trimmed away, is as good as that of any team in baseball. Much can change in six weeks, but the Brewers are currently as healthy as a team can hope to be at this time of year, and though they won't win as many games as the 2018 or 2021 clubs or have the offensive firepower of the 2011 team, this feels like a team with as good a chance as any in recent Brewers history to fly their first-ever World Series championship flag.

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[Frisbee Slider]

Thoughts on whether the Dodgers or even Braves would be afraid of us?

I agree we are a hot and exciting team 🙂

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Thoughts on whether the Dodgers or even Braves would be afraid of us?

I agree we are a hot and exciting team 🙂

If the Brewers are clicking, I think every team is "scared" of them in a postseason series. To me, the key is Peralta. If he's really going well, being able to trot out aces or borderline aces in the first three games, or all five games of a five game series, is damned scary.

There's still a month left to go and a lot can happen so I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Michael Trzinski]

Right now #3 Milwaukee would play #6 Chicago. I would even worry about that!

[DuWayne Steurer]

The Braves offense is historically good. they're not afraid of anyone. not should they be 

Don't get me wrong. I love the optimism here. But we'd be huge dogs, and rightfully. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 minutes ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

The Braves offense is historically good. they're not afraid of anyone. not should they be 

Don't get me wrong. I love the optimism here. But we'd be huge dogs, and rightfully. 

Huge dogs for sure but if I face Atlanta with the Brewers staff, I want a five game series to do it. The Brewers’ starters have the best chance of stymying the Braves that way. 

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Huge dogs for sure but if I face Atlanta with the Brewers staff, I want a five game series to do it. The Brewers’ starters have the best chance of stymying the Braves that way. 

True Burnes and Woodruff didn’t pitch against Atlanta and Burnes made one start against LA this year, but still the Brewers were dominated by those two teams  as evidenced by their 2-10 against them, but more importantly how they were out scored in those 12 games  73-43. 

No doubt the Brewers have been playing good baseball this past week+ but that doesn’t also mean they closed the gap with the two top dogs in their league. 
 

 

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

True Burnes and Woodruff didn’t pitch against Atlanta and Burnes made one start against LA this year, but still the Brewers were dominated by those two teams  as evidenced by their 2-10 against them, but more importantly how they were out scored in those 12 games  73-43.

If Burnes and Woodruff pitched against Atlanta and LA, the runs scored sure as hell wouldn't have been 73-43.

[Robocaller]

This article would be true if the Brewers win over 70% of the rest of their games this season.

Otherwise, it's ludicrous.

 

[Robocaller]

9 hours ago, LouisEly said:

If Burnes and Woodruff pitched against Atlanta and LA, the runs scored sure as hell wouldn't have been 73-43.

You sure about that? Burnes just gave up 6 runs to the Twins.

[LouisEly]

6 hours ago, Robocaller said:

You sure about that? Burnes just gave up 6 runs to the Twins.

On a day when the temperature was 100 degrees and the dew point 80 and everyone was sweating so much that it was hard to get a good grip on the ball?  Yep, damn sure.

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

6 hours ago, Robocaller said:

You sure about that? Burnes just gave up 6 runs to the Twins.

And he shut down the dodgers before that…

[wiguy94]

34 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

On a day when the temperature was 100 degrees and the dew point 80 and everyone was sweating so much that it was hard to get a good grip on the ball?  Yep, damn sure.

Not to mention the fact the baseball was carrying an absurd amount in that game. On a normal weather day, no way Taylor or Farmer’s HR carry out of the park. Taylor’s was 46 LA which tied the season high LA HR and Farmer hit a 97 EV, 35 LA ball into the CF side of the Brewers bullpen lol.

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Robocaller said:

This article would be true if the Brewers win over 70% of the rest of their games this season.

Otherwise, it's ludicrous.

 

The more incorrect or ridiculous the statement, the more engagement and page views it brings. Ridiculous statements = $$$. It's a simple formula.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

On a day when the temperature was 100 degrees and the dew point 80 and everyone was sweating so much that it was hard to get a good grip on the ball?  Yep, damn sure.

The Twins catcher crawled to first base because his legs gave out. Everybody gets a pass for anything that happened that day. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

I don’t know, traditionally the “team no one wants to play” moniker has excluded the favorites.

By that definition, the Brewers have about as much claim as any of teams 3-9

[LouisEly]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Twins catcher crawled to first base because his legs gave out. Everybody gets a pass for anything that happened that day. 

And the home plate umpire had to stop carrying baseballs in his side pouch because they were getting too sweaty.   Bill Schroeder said that he has never seen that before.  And he's seen a helluva lot of baseball games.

[Jopal78]

On 8/26/2023 at 6:09 PM, LouisEly said:

If Burnes and Woodruff pitched against Atlanta and LA, the runs scored sure as hell wouldn't have been 73-43.

That run differential includes a 1-0 loss pitched by Burnes against LA. 

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

That run differential includes a 1-0 loss pitched by Burnes against LA. 

You realize that helps their argument right?

[Robocaller]

13 hours ago, LouisEly said:

On a day when the temperature was 100 degrees and the dew point 80 and everyone was sweating so much that it was hard to get a good grip on the ball?  Yep, damn sure.

 

 

I forgot the weather was always pleasant for the playoffs. 

 

[Robocaller]

I looked at some World Series winner predictors. Brewers were anywhere from 7th to 14th.

There might be 4 teams that no one wants to run into during the playoffs, but the Brewers aren't one.

 

[Robocaller]

12 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

And he shut down the dodgers before that…

which means it's baseball--random stuff happens--and thus you can't count that your ace will dominate every playoff game.

[Brewcrew82]

48 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

I looked at some World Series winner predictors. Brewers were anywhere from 7th to 14th.

There might be 4 teams that no one wants to run into during the playoffs, but the Brewers aren't one.

 

Yeah, I'm sure lots of teams are looking forward to facing Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta in a short series followed by the best bullpen in the majors (by WPA). 

And then if the Brewers are scoring runs like they have been lately...

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

which means it's baseball--random stuff happens--and thus you can't count that your ace will dominate every playoff game.

...are you not seeing the irony of this statement?

[Jopal78]

11 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

You realize that helps their argument right?

The point is the Dodgers still handed Burnes a loss despite him pitching brilliantly against them, when they know they already beat the other team’s best, it kind of removes intimidation from the equation— which is what the subject line is about.