NL Wild Card Game 1-Diamondbacks (Pfaadt) vs Brewers (Burnes): 10/3/23, 6:08pm

[Baldkin]

34 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Uecker is never going to get to see this team win a World Series in his lifetime, and it's a shame. 

He was on the 64 Cardinals who won the World Series. 

[DHonks]

Really just a terrible game, and it feels like almost every loss we've had in the last month.  We generally score a couple early, then not again.  I was busy coaching and couldn't watch much except a little on my phone, but some things that stand out to me:

• Winker did everything we expected based on his in-season performance.  He was on the post-season roster to weakly ground out or strike out
• Burnes has been inconsistent the last two seasons.  In the second half of this season he pitched much better, but still had quite a few iffy games, although he usually followed them up with dominance.  As always, when his cutter isn't on, announcers rave about his spin rates while he gives up walks and hard-hit balls.  His curve and changeup simply aren't effective when his cutter is off
• Why didn't we start Caratini?  He's Corbin's personal catcher for a reason, so why didn't we start him in the biggest game of Burnes' career?
• I shouted when we didn't send Frelick on Donaldson's hit.  At that point in the game we needed to tie it.  Every day I see countless teams have bases loaded and no outs and fail to score.  We needed to make them make a perfect throw with a fast runner at 3rd.
• Our lack of power hurt.  The DBacks are young, fast, and full of power.  
• Turang cost us dearly with failing to bunt, failing to put another in play (when I thought would have been perfect to bunt with bases loaded and no outs).  
• Peralta was pretty similar to Burnes this year.  Statistically we're without our best pitcher.  And Freddy's swing-and-miss arsenal should hopefully neutralize some of the free swinging DBacks.  Hopefully we can get to Miley.  

[Jim French Stepstool]

It's just been a strange year for Burnes. I don't think I can recall a pitcher with more ability that I've felt so little confidence in AFA winning a game on a given day. In the 3rd he's 1-1 to the 9-hole hitter, then gets shafted on what should've been called strike two. From that point on it's like his whole world fell apart. Just odd. I almost feel like he would've mowed them down for 6 innings, as long as we also didn't score. Either way, 90-some pitches just barely into the middle innings isn't staff ace stuff.

I actually didn't think we did a bad job of taking advantage of the tight zone, but they certainly outdid us there.

Kudos to Tyrone Taylor. Not only the HR, but the lineout w/the bases loaded was a great AB despite the results. Hit a rocket while working the count full, after falling behind 0-2. 

We definitely didn't catch a lot of breaks, but at the same time we were outplayed. Longoria may be their POTG just on the defensive work.

 PHing for Turang COULD have been an option in the 5th. What might've kept that from happening is it probably would've been Winker, and with the bases loaded & less than two he's a DP danger. If it was 2nd & 3rd CC may have made that move. With no one out, you like speed at the plate, just don't K. Of course............

Certainly, you use Williams in the 9th down one. You see that all the time in post-season. I see where someone said he should've thrown Saturday. Ummmmm, he did.

[rickh150]

45 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I think its ridiculous to play 162 games and win a division just to have to play a 2 of 3 to get to the second round.

I think it is incredibly fair.

Win more and get a bye.

Brewers also get potentially three more home playoff games than the best two teams. That is quite the benefit to worst division winner and best wild card team. And when people used to complain about a one game playoff after 162 games, I could understand. Losing a three game series at home? Nope. It’s more than fair for #3/4 seeds.

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 minutes ago, DHonks said:

Really just a terrible game, and it feels like almost every loss we've had in the last month.  We generally score a couple early, then not again.  I was busy coaching and couldn't watch much except a little on my phone, but some things that stand out to me:

• Winker did everything we expected based on his in-season performance.  He was on the post-season roster to weakly ground out or strike out
• Burnes has been inconsistent the last two seasons.  In the second half of this season he pitched much better, but still had quite a few iffy games, although he usually followed them up with dominance.  As always, when his cutter isn't on, announcers rave about his spin rates while he gives up walks and hard-hit balls.  His curve and changeup simply aren't effective when his cutter is off
• Why didn't we start Caratini?  He's Corbin's personal catcher for a reason, so why didn't we start him in the biggest game of Burnes' career?
• I shouted when we didn't send Frelick on Donaldson's hit.  At that point in the game we needed to tie it.  Every day I see countless teams have bases loaded and no outs and fail to score.  We needed to make them make a perfect throw with a fast runner at 3rd.
• Our lack of power hurt.  The DBacks are young, fast, and full of power.  
• Turang cost us dearly with failing to bunt, failing to put another in play (when I thought would have been perfect to bunt with bases loaded and no outs).  
• Peralta was pretty similar to Burnes this year.  Statistically we're without our best pitcher.  And Freddy's swing-and-miss arsenal should hopefully neutralize some of the free swinging DBacks.  Hopefully we can get to Miley.  

Strategy-wise, I've felt for a while now Burnes needs to throw the 4-seamer on the inner half of the plate, something he seldom does. A great cutter that I think he/his catchers fall too much in love with. Kinda reminds me of When Gallardo came to the team armed with, among other things, a very effective changeup, then at a certain point just had no more interest in using it.

With no one out, you need to be at or close to 100% certain someone will score from 2nd on a hit to send him. I get the frustration after they didn't score, but that's just one of those things that ain't gonna change. With one out Taylor hit a seed. It was caught. that kinda night.

I actually like the idea of bunting w/the bases loaded, with Frelick at 3rd, IF the corners are back. I have no idea if they were.

[brooks_quichenick]

1 hour ago, gypcasino said:

Been since the beginning. Absolute joke of a crowd. 1000s of empty seats. Shockingly low energy.  People streaming for the exits after the 8th inning in a one run game like it's a meaningless regular season game. Absolutely embarrassing. I'm completely disgusted.

I don't get this mentality at all. It was $60 just to sit in the bleachers to watch this sorry team suck it up out there at 6pm on a Tuesday. Low energy? Might have something to do with the extremely ugly and predictable ball being played on the field. It was loud and people were fired up until Cy Burnes gave up 5 straight rockets and the lead.

Been to 40+ games this season and this game was just a perfect microcosm of everything the Brewers have done wrong in 2023, exposing all of their flaws when it mattered most. Burnes absolutely failed miserably, Devin threw ~30 pitches and got lit up, and the offense did exactly what it had done all season: strand baserunners with noncompetitive at bats. Tyrone was really the only guy I felt good about at the plate, he got robbed by Longoria on a rocket that would've scored 2. Nothing you can do about that.

I'm still hopeful we'll be able to pull this series out, but I'm also glad I have to work tomorrow and will be unable to watch. Surprise me, Brew Crew!

 

 

[nate82]

This is all on Burnes.  If you are an ace pitcher the three early runs is enough for you to win in the playoffs if you are not an ace then it is not enough.  A 3-run lead didn't even last a whole inning and Burnes blew it that was the game in the 3rd inning it was over because Burnes couldn't keep an early 3-run lead everything after that is just noise.  This loss is 100% on Burnes you can't be giving up 4 runs in 4 innings as an ace. 

The series is more than likely over as tomorrow is going to be a low scoring game if the Brewers are not able to jump out ahead early it is over. 

This was a bad team to be playing against as they match up better than the Marlins or even the Phillies do with the Brewers. 

[sobomp3]

Honestly my absolute joy of making the postseason with this pitching staff and a nice shutout of the Cubs with my (almost) 5-year old next to me to close the season went down several notches with the Woodruff news yesterday… really tempered my expectations for this series .

We quite possibly survive this loss with Woody tomorrow. Glad my wife and I have a cooking class at Public Market (scheduled in June) so I don’t have to watch tomorrow. If it’s close, I guess we hit a bar in the third ward at 8:00 for the final third. Surprise me ‘Crew. 

[wiguy94]

27 minutes ago, nate82 said:

This is all on Burnes.  If you are an ace pitcher the three early runs is enough for you to win in the playoffs if you are not an ace then it is not enough.  A 3-run lead didn't even last a whole inning and Burnes blew it that was the game in the 3rd inning it was over because Burnes couldn't keep an early 3-run lead everything after that is just noise.  This loss is 100% on Burnes you can't be giving up 4 runs in 4 innings as an ace. 

The series is more than likely over as tomorrow is going to be a low scoring game if the Brewers are not able to jump out ahead early it is over. 

This was a bad team to be playing against as they match up better than the Marlins or even the Phillies do with the Brewers. 

Yeah it all comes down to Burnes. Look at the other scores tonight.

4-0

3-1

4-1

In all of those games the team that won got an early lead and their ace delivered them 5.2+ innings and the win. Our "ace" gave up 3 HR and was an Abner Uribe shut down inning away from giving up 6 ER in 4 innings.

Burnes is just an incredibly frustrating player to watch and root for. He's immensely talented. Some of the best raw stuff in the league but he just gets in his own way in my opinion. His post game comments pissed me off so much. He said he was getting quick outs when he was executing in the first 2 innings...like what?? He needed 36 pitches to get through 2 innings face 7 batters. That's 5.14 pitches per PA. Brewers hitters led the MLB in pitches per PA at 4.02 this season. So Burnes was 1.12 pitches per PA above the best number in the MLB and he was talking about getting quick outs? Just so damn annoying.

[Jim French Stepstool]

13 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah it all comes down to Burnes. Look at the other scores tonight.

4-0

3-1

4-1

In all of those games the team that won got an early lead and their ace delivered them 5.2+ innings and the win. Our "ace" gave up 3 HR and was an Abner Uribe shut down inning away from giving up 6 ER in 4 innings.

Burnes is just an incredibly frustrating player to watch and root for. He's immensely talented. Some of the best raw stuff in the league but he just gets in his own way in my opinion. His post game comments pissed me off so much. He said he was getting quick outs when he was executing in the first 2 innings...like what?? He needed 36 pitches to get through 2 innings face 7 batters. That's 5.14 pitches per PA. Brewers hitters led the MLB in pitches per PA at 4.02 this season. So Burnes was 1.12 pitches per PA above the best number in the MLB and he was talking about getting quick outs? Just so damn annoying.

He really said that? Glad I missed it, my remote may not have survived.

I miss the Bally postgame already. "Corbin, even though it wasn't the result you & the team were looking for, how awesome was it that you got through the first two innings in only 36 pitches?"

[bucks2281]

They’re in deep, deep trouble, but the offense was never going to be good enough to spark a deep run. Tonight isn’t the best example of that because they had some genuinely bad luck. This offense puts so much stress on the pitching staff by leaving it so little margin for error and that is amplified in a short playoff series 

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

He really said that? Glad I missed it, my remote may not have survived.

I miss the Bally postgame already. "Corbin, even though it wasn't the result you & the team were looking for, how awesome was it that you got through the first two innings in only 36 pitches?"

This was his exact quote, "When I was executing pitches the first couple of innings, we got quick outs, and a lot of ground balls, some strikeouts. Then when I stopped executing pitches, they didn't miss."

 

[edfunderburk]

4 hours ago, rickh150 said:

I think it is incredibly fair.

Win more and get a bye.

Brewers also get potentially three more home playoff games than the best two teams. That is quite the benefit to worst division winner and best wild card team. And when people used to complain about a one game playoff after 162 games, I could understand. Losing a three game series at home? Nope. It’s more than fair for #3/4 seeds.

All good points 

[Frisbee Slider]

6 hours ago, DHonks said:

Why didn't we start Caratini?  He's Corbin's personal catcher for a reason, so why didn't we start him in the biggest game of Burnes' career?

I agree.

Cy Young award pitchers should have ability to request a personal catcher. Of course, it is Corbin’s job to execute pitches but just like a pro golfer doesn’t change his putter a couple weeks before a major tournament, neither should the Brewers have messed with Burnes/Caratini.

[Jake McKibbin]

Also intriguing is if Winker does get taken off due to injury... would Counsell prefer Rowdy, or the on fire, on base machine that is Tyler Black as a pinch hitter?

[Bulldogboy]

The first inning should have been three runs. When you got three straight k from a scared out his mind young pitcher to hold it to one run this game was over. We saw it all year.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Why didn't we start Caratini?  He's Corbin's personal catcher for a reason, so why didn't we start him in the biggest game of Burnes' career?

 

Because we had to keep a slumping Canha, the one with a bum wrist that is apparently feeling the impact of a cortisone shot from a few weeks ago wearing off, in the lineup as our DH hitting cleanup.  He was surrounded by players in the lineup who got on base multiple times - his spot in the order killed several scoring opportunities throughout a game where getting baserunners was the farthest thing from a problem offensively.

[bjkrautk]

Just seemed like every decision backfired.

- Keeping Caratini out of the lineup so Canha could go 0-4 as the DH, and Burnes gives up 3 HR's and throws 92 pitches in 4 innings.

- Garrett Mitchell had more HRs for the Brewers this year in 65 ABs (3) than Winker did in 166 ABs (1), but Winker got a spot on the post-season roster.  (I would have a similar gripe for Wiemer, but I assume he made the roster as a pinch runner.)

- Andruw Monasterio not getting an AB, while Winker did, despite Monasterio being the better player all season.  (I can excuse starting Turang with Burnes on the mound, but once he was out...we needed offense.

- Using Williams while losing, when we need to win 2 games this series.

 

Not out of it yet - as last night showed, anything can happen in a short series - but that game hurt.

[Pugger]

9 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

This was his exact quote, "When I was executing pitches the first couple of innings, we got quick outs, and a lot of ground balls, some strikeouts. Then when I stopped executing pitches, they didn't miss."

 

Corbin was telling the truth.  When you don't put your pitches where you want you're gonna get hit.

[tmwiese55]

11 hours ago, RobertCrawley said:

He gave it all he had, but he had a bad day. It happens in sports.

Yea and I'm not basing that off one game and I'm not saying he's not a good top level pitcher. Him being so is one of the reasons I was cautiously optimistic this postseason.   I'm just saying he's not prime Verlander/Scherzer type good and that's what he's going to get paid like. 

[RobertCrawley]

16 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yea and I'm not basing that off one game and I'm not saying he's not a good top level pitcher. Him being so is one of the reasons I was cautiously optimistic this postseason.   I'm just saying he's not prime Verlander/Scherzer type good and that's what he's going to get paid like. 

I see what you're saying. But it's worth noting that even Verlander/Scherzer are sometimes not prime Verlander/Scherzer. They've both lost plenty in the postseason.

[tmwiese55]

Just now, RobertCrawley said:

I see what you're saying. But it's worth noting that even Verlander/Scherzer are sometimes not prime Verlander/Scherzer.

Yes I know that even top pitchers don't throw shutouts every game.   He has these blips/blow ups noticeably more often than the type of guys I'm talking about, thus not as good as them.  Again, still very good but if you give him 35-40 mil per year you're probably gonna come away disappointed.          From mid 2022 until now his stats are not at the level to warrant that type of pay but he's probably gonna get it in this crazy time of contracts, and my guess is their fans are going to come away disappointed in his 3s ERA and how many HRs he gives up

[RobertCrawley]

29 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yes I know that even top pitchers don't throw shutouts every game.   He has these blips/blow ups noticeably more often than the type of guys I'm talking about, thus not as good as them.  Again, still very good but if you give him 35-40 mil per year you're probably gonna come away disappointed.          From mid 2022 until now his stats are not at the level to warrant that type of pay but he's probably gonna get it in this crazy time of contracts, and my guess is their fans are going to come away disappointed in his 3s ERA and how many HRs he gives up

Justin Verlander has a playoff record of 16-11 with an ERA of 3.64.

Max Scherzer has a playoff record of 7-7 with an ERA of 3.58.

[tmwiese55]

2 hours ago, RobertCrawley said:

Justin Verlander has a playoff record of 16-11 with an ERA of 3.64.

Max Scherzer has a playoff record of 7-7 with an ERA of 3.58.

I didn't say anything about playoff eras.   Again, I'm not basing this off one game and am not a subscriber to the fallacy of small sample "sucks in the playoffs" like many commentators do in all sports. 

If you think about, as a starter Burnes was absolutely dominant for 1.5 years. The rest he's just been good.  He's gonna get paid off the 1.5 years like he's done it for years.   Again, very good top end starter deserving of a big payday.  But expecting him to all of a sudden go back to what he did for that 1.5 years should not be expected, but I think he'll get paid like it.

ETA: did a quick glance at Verlander's career, he had way more fluctuation up/down than I would've guessed. He's probably not the best example.  But the overall point I'm getting at shouldn't be hard to decipher.   For the most part, its extremely rare for mega contracts to pitchers to work out well. I don't think its crazy to say I think Burnes' won't as well. Especially with how small a track record of top top elite he has and that for the last 1.5 years he's just been good, not great.  Sure he has another year, maybe he'll go fully Cy Young level again next year and prove me wrong. Hope he does if he's still in MKE

[RWeeksFan23]

On 10/3/2023 at 12:32 PM, owbc said:

If we win this series, I think we ride the momentum to a deep postseason run. 

If we lose this series, the Counsell era is going to largely be remembered for regular season success and postseason failure. 

why would it be remembered for postseason failure?

winning championships is hard. Only one team can come out on top, and we're at a significant disadvantage.