Very Early 2024 Roster Discussion

[LouisEly]

C: Contreras
1B: Canha or Santana
2B: Monasterio or Turang
SS: Adames
3B: Black or Monasterio (until the Brewers are confident in Black's defense - Black will be up by the All-Star break, but won't be surprised if Black breaks camp like Turang did this past year)
LF: Taylor or Canha, Chourio at some point after June 1
CF: Mitchell
RF: Frelick
DH: Yelich

Bench: Caratini, Perkins, Roller (until Chourio), Toro, Devanney or Miller (until Turang comes back up)

SP: Peralta, Miley, Houser, Gasser, (Burnes trade acquisition), Rea

RP: Williams, Payamps, Milner, Magill, Peguero, Wilson, Uribe, FA LHRP or Ashby

A few notes:

• Addition by subtraction mostly except for possibly Black.  No Tapia, Winker, Singleton, Brosseau, Voit, Lauer, Andrews, Bush, Guerra, Chafin, etc..  Getting rid of the bottom 6 pitchers and position players is getting rid of -6.6 WAR.
• Burnes gets moved for one young ML-ready SP and a couple of top prospects.  He led the majors in WHIP and hasn't missed a start since 2021.  He'll fetch plenty in return.
• I don't see more than a one-year stopgap at 1B or 3B with Black and Wilken knocking on the door.  Wilken might be in MKE by the end of 2024 at the rate he's blowing through the minors.  One of him or Black will take over 1B in 2025, the other 3B.  Black will be manning 3B by the All-Star break, or as soon as the Brewers are confident in his defense.
• Adames has more value than many think.  Fangraphs had him as 3.4 WAR this year, and he tied for 2nd in SS outs above average (16) and DRS (12).  He was an elite defensive SS this year, and his Sept/Oct OPS was .852.  Unfortunately Turang isn't ready offensively, but I would not be surprised if Adames gets traded and for more than many think.
• Yelich becomes the primary DH with Chourio knocking on the door.  Taylor likely the primary LF with Yelich at LF when Contreras is DH.  Taylor's 2nd half OPS was .854.  If Mitchell falters and gets sent down, Yelich will play more LF... or Mitchell will be swapped for Chourio.  With Yelich becoming primary DH, I don't see them trading any of their young OFs. 
• As others have said, if they get a really good offer I could see them trading Williams.
• No idea what to expect with Woodruff, but he won't be traded given his injury.  If all goes well he'll be the de-facto "big name acquisition" in August.
• See if they can stay in contention until Woodruff, Black, Chourio, Ashby, maybe even Wilken are ready

 

[MrTPlush]

Your WAR is going to get inflated when you play almost every day and you have good defense. You play Brice Turang every day and he would have over 2 WAR. 
 

If you want to play a guy 150 games, he will rack up some WAR value. A lot of guys could pop off for 2+ WAR purely on defense. The difference is, if they suck with the bat they won’t play. 

[brewmann04]

This should be a no issue Burnes needs to go especially the way he pitched let the arby ruling get to him. I sure there some over in Flushing that might want to add him. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Very nice thread, good stuff. I'll just throw out a few tidbits:

If it's either/or, I'd rather bring Canha back than Santana. Carlos has had a really nice 2 months here, and I wouldn't complain if he came back on a 1-year deal, but the age 38 season coming up just concerns me a bit. Of course Canha would be a tougher sign.

I hope Mitchell can be consistent enough to hold down the CF fort. I'd rather not see any kind of a platoon situation with Wiemer. Let the kid develop & have the AAA season that was lost to him this year.

The stop & go aspect of EBJ's career so far due to the injuries probably makes it less likely Adames will be dealt right now. But if there's more value to him than meets the eye as some suggest, I'd certainly listen.

How close to his former self can Ashby be in '24? Very important.

It's nice to not have to retool the BP, at least on paper.

Would like to see Burnes dealt.

If Quero continues on the same path, they'll have a "situation" to deal with soon since Contreras had a magnificent year & is locked up. Nice position to be in.

 

[LouisEly]

9 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Your WAR is going to get inflated when you play almost every day and you have good defense. You play Brice Turang every day and he would have over 2 WAR. 
 

If you want to play a guy 150 games, he will rack up some WAR value. A lot of guys could pop off for 2+ WAR purely on defense. The difference is, if they suck with the bat they won’t play. 

Isn't being able to play every day and defense at SS kind of important?  Backups, across the league, generally aren't good.  That's the point of WAR.

Fangraphs has Adames 10th among SS for WAR.  B-R.com has the Brewers at 13th for wins above average at SS.  Adames is an above-average SS.  It will be really difficult to find a better one.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

Isn't being able to play every day and defense at SS kind of important?  Backups, across the league, generally aren't good.  That's the point of WAR.

Fangraphs has Adames 10th among SS for WAR.  B-R.com has the Brewers at 13th for wins above average at SS.  Adames is an above-average SS.  It will be really difficult to find a better one.

Plus, Adames has a pretty deep track record of being a better offensive player than he was this year. He seems like a classic, "hang on and see where you are at the deadline" guy just because his value is more likely to go up than go down.

I also think you just make peace with the fact that you may have to go the QO route. It's not as big of a deal to develop  (or acquire or even piecemeal replace offensively) a SS like Willy as it is a pitcher like Burnes. Burnes, you really need to capitalize on him because, as a franchise, it's really tough to get SP like that, and, even in this era, a TOR starter is the most valuable thing in the sport.

[Harold Hutchison]

Refining my thinking on the roster some more...

LF: Frelick

3B: Black

1B: Yelich

C: Contreras

DH: Canha

CF: Mitchell

SS: Adames

2B: Monasterio

RF: Taylor

Bench: Caratini, Toro, Miller, Perkins

Rotation: Burnes, Peralta, Miley, Houser, Ashby

Bullpen: Uribe, Payamps, Milner, Megill, Vieira, Small, Rea, Bryce Wilson

 

At this point, I'm inclined to make one more run - deal Devin Williams for a three-prospect package (all AA/AAA, a starter, a reliever, and a position player), make Uribe the closer. Plan to go QO with Burnes and Adames. Assume Woodruff's return will be the de facto starter acquisition - he'll get a QO as well, and I'd anticipate him taking it.

I'd also flip Peguero for at least another AA/AAA prospect or some low-level lottery tickets. Try to see if I can get an Adam Lind-esque return for Tellez and Lauer. I figure at some point in the season, I'll flip Perkins when one of Chourio/Wiemer forces the issue from Nashville, and Tyrone Taylor becomes the 4th OF/DH. If both force the issue, then Canha can also be dealt.

Tyler Black ends up the 3B. His bat has nothing left to prove in the minors. Let's get it to Milwaukee. I'm not going to sweat the defense - the Diamondbacks series (not to mention most of 2022) exposed the paucity of dynamic bats. So at the MLB level, Black is the 3B. In the minors, Juan Baez gets reps at shortstop, and Satchell Norman gets lots of time behind the plate.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

51 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

I'm not going to sweat the defense 

Well, knock me over with a feather!

[Bulldogboy]

Now is the perfect time to trade Adames Burnes and Williams and load up on young mlb ready prospects and rebuild. New manager too. This organization has done a nice job of creating a young pipeline of talented guys. We need to do what teams like Orioles and Dbacks are doing. Play the young talent and stop with the stopgaps. Ask Yelich to play 1st base and clear the outfield for Mitchell Frelick Chourio. That alone would get me to buy a ticket. It's time to start fresh and build something to get over the hump. Stopgaps are what you use when you are close. This team has proven it's not so youth be served. A team with Mitchell Chourio Black Contreas Frelick Yelich maybe Turang if he figures it out Monteserio Quero would be exciting. I would take a flyer on Hiura as the dh now that Counsell is gone. He could be 25 hr 80 rbi guy imo. Add in the trade hauls and you could be back in the playoffs in a year. 

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Plus, Adames has a pretty deep track record of being a better offensive player than he was this year. He seems like a classic, "hang on and see where you are at the deadline" guy just because his value is more likely to go up than go down.

I also think you just make peace with the fact that you may have to go the QO route. It's not as big of a deal to develop  (or acquire or even piecemeal replace offensively) a SS like Willy as it is a pitcher like Burnes. Burnes, you really need to capitalize on him because, as a franchise, it's really tough to get SP like that, and, even in this era, a TOR starter is the most valuable thing in the sport.

Given his elite defensive metrics and a down year offensively, this past year is likely his floor.  Because of his defensive improvement, his war this past season (3.0 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR) was very similar to his 2021 WAR (3.6 bWAR, 3.3 fWAR) when he had a better offensive profile.  At ~3 WAR for his floor, maybe now is the time for an extension.  He just turned 28; I would not at all object to a 4-5 year, $80M-$100M extension. 

As we saw with Turang, offense at SS can be a whole lot worse that what Adames did this past year.

[RWeeksFan23]

16 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Your WAR is going to get inflated when you play almost every day and you have good defense. You play Brice Turang every day and he would have over 2 WAR. 
 

If you want to play a guy 150 games, he will rack up some WAR value. A lot of guys could pop off for 2+ WAR purely on defense. The difference is, if they suck with the bat they won’t play. 

You act like being good defensively is a bad thing, lol

[CheezWizHed]

I could see this being the year they blow the team up for a rebuild... especially if CC doesn't return as manager, it wouldn't shock me to see an overhaul.  In fact, given some of our player values and contract statuses, it might be the wisest thing to do...

Trade away:

• Burnes: I'm pretty sure he is traded whether or not they blow up the team.
• Woody: Injured; questionable for ST return.  Seems like a mid-season trade is the best option.  Let him rebuild value first. 
• Adames: Showed some offensive hope at the end of the season.  Will return more than 2 RPs this time. 
• Yelich: I think this season represents the best we will see from him now on.  If he is ever going to be tradeable again.. it is now.  Return won't matter much...getting out of the contract is more the key.

Move on:

• Winkler/Miley/Canha/Chafin/Winkler/Donaldson/Tellez/Winkler (note inclusion of Winkler multiple times was intentional): We just move on here.  Some of them have value (Canha/Miley), but not so much in a rebuild.
• Lauer - Like his SD buddy Urias...just needs a new start.  

Bridge players (one year contracts)

• Santana - I have to admit that I just like the way he plays.  Not the big bat we need at 1B, but a great guy to be a clubhouse leader.  Show the kids how to play.  No one close to filling in here yet. 
• Caratini - Good backup player.  Bridge to having Quero up in another year. 
• Houser - not sure how many SPs we will have available.  Probably more valuable to hold onto than trade.

Support staff (as long as they remain cheap)

• Tyrone Taylor - Value, but mostly a 4th OFer or starter you work to replace.  
• Owens - Another utility guy with some value. 
•  Peguero, Rea, Small, Viera, B-Wilson - good/decent pitching depth.  

The new core (established and young)

• Contreras - Just highway robbery last year for Ruis... 
• D-Williams - Solid as our closer
• Freddy - Still growing as a pitcher
• Payamps, Uribe, Megill, Milner - Pitched enough high leverage innings to be legit to make a very strong BP. 

The New Crew (the new hope)

• Frelick, Turang, and Montesario - A big part of next year.  Each needs growth, but most likely at the MLB level
• Wiemer - I love the guy, but needs a bit more time at AAA to work on his swing. Turang could really be included here too.  
• Gasser, Black, Chourio, and Quero - appearances in 2024 or soon after?
• Ashby - Does he have anything left of the bright spot he was?

I'm not saying this is what the Brewers should do, but could do and what it might look like.  Major holes would exist in SP and power hitters.  But Burnes, Woody, and Adames could bring a pretty strong return.   Trading Yellich does allow us to let the OF be managed by the youngsters and perhaps snag a FA 3B/1B to fill a gap. 

If you don't trade the three now... we risk losing them without any returns.  I think we all see that the current roster has some aging and contract concerns amongst the core.  And we have a large nucleus of young players coming at us.  

Might be the right time to hit the reboot button. 

 

[Brewcrew82]

I keep seeing Monasterio as a key part of people's rosters for next year. I don't see it. He was a minor league free agent for a reason. Likely a flash in the pan, who the closer you look, didn't flash all that much. Utility makes more sense, but as a starter? 

Also, Yelich is not getting traded. He has a huge contract and a full no trade clause. Neither is Woodruff with his injury uncertainty. And Adames' trade value probably just isn't there right now. 

I'm on the fence about trading Burnes as part of me wants to run it back and get the draft pick compensation, while another part is curious about what he would fetch on the open market. 

Devin is a guy I'd actually be interested in cashing in on for a middle of the order bat type. Brewers have proven more than anything at this point that they can field elite bullpens.

[wiguy94]

22 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I keep seeing Monasterio as a key part of people's rosters for next year. I don't see it. He was a minor league free agent for a reason. Likely a flash in the pan, who the closer you look, didn't flash all that much. Utility makes more sense, but as a starter? 

Also, Yelich is not getting traded. He has a huge contract and a full no trade clause. Neither is Woodruff with his injury uncertainty. And Adames' trade value probably just isn't there right now. 

I'm on the fence about trading Burnes as part of me wants to run it back and get the draft pick compensation, while another part is curious about what he would fetch on the open market. 

Devin is a guy I'd actually be interested in cashing in on for a middle of the order bat type. Brewers have proven more than anything at this point that they can field elite bullpens.

I've definitely been talking myself into a potential DW trade this offseason. I love him. He's my favorite RP the Brewers have ever had, but he's a RP. If Brewers can get something valuable for him then absolutely go for it. Like you said we have done an amazing job building bullpens.

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I've definitely been talking myself into a potential DW trade this offseason. I love him. He's my favorite RP the Brewers have ever had, but he's a RP. If Brewers can get something valuable for him then absolutely go for it. Like you said we have done an amazing job building bullpens.

Right and we wouldn't have to do that much building to begin with considering we control all of our other high leverage guys from this past year. 

Maybe we should be cheering for a Rangers' bullpen collapse and see if we can get one of their young bats in the offseason (Carter obviously being the one off the table). Same thing with the Orioles given Bautista is out for next season.

[Bulldogboy]

Yelich isn't getting traded as his contract is nuts. That said you do need a face with so much turnover. I am fine with keeping him as long as he isn't playing the outfield in front of a youngster. His level of production this season was good and could have been better had he had any help besides Contreras. Also if Miley is willing bring him back as a veteran influence. 

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

 

Move on:

• Winkler/Miley/Canha/Chafin/Winkler/Donaldson/Tellez/Winkler (note inclusion of Winkler multiple times was intentional): We just move on here.  
•  

Who is this Winkler fella you keep mentioning?

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

I'm on the fence about trading Burnes as part of me wants to run it back and get the draft pick compensation, while another part is curious about what he would fetch on the open market. 

 

Arnold will make it known that Burnes is available for the right price, that you can be sure of. 

If no one bites, we keep him and look for another deal at the deadline, or we just hang on and cash in on the draft compensation.

It's all we can do at this point, but all it takes is for one team to offer up a deal we can't refuse, and hopefully, we add some more building blocks.

[MrTPlush]

10 hours ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

You act like being good defensively is a bad thing, lol

Being good defensively is dime a dozen. It’s a matter of how much offense you provide with that. Adames, provides like a garage offense. Not a bad mix, but he is set for $13mil next year.

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, TURBO said:

Arnold will make it known that Burnes is available for the right price, that you can be sure of. 

If no one bites, we keep him and look for another deal at the deadline, or we just hang on and cash in on the draft compensation.

It's all we can do at this point, but all it takes is for one team to offer up a deal we can't refuse, and hopefully, we add some more building blocks.

You have to at least see what is available. It's just not lining up with Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta and then the next core. 

If you can get a guy like Painter from Philly for Burnes and Williams, I'd take that and two young guys who are fliers

My thinking is pretty simple. This era of the Brewers is over and we're quickly coming up on the next one, it's not going to overlap, we can pretty much see that now. This was also the impetus for me suggesting another move that I've said from the jump was VERY unlikely to happen, but it's pretty simple. What's the best chance to win a WS? A dynamic offense with Chourio, Contreras, Quero(both or you trade one), Frelick, Wilken, Black, Mitchell, Turang and Wiemer(I still believe both are going to be 3-4 WAR players Wiemer could be significantly higher at his peak).

At the same time here, you've got another pretty significant wave of talent coming through that at least as of now is pretty highly regarded.

So looking forward and I feel like we're pretty well set up offensively, we're pretty well set up with our BP, and guys will always step up in both places, but especially the Bullpen. 

The rotation is the question mark. Gasser, Rodriguez both look like really good #3/4 starters. Peralta is a #2/3 on a WS caliber team. Ashby has Ace upside, but the dreaded shoulder. Misiorowski has deGrom like potential, but so clearly has a very low floor as well. 

So I'm just in favor at this point of a clean slate and doing what we can to add to an elite farm system. That was the impetus for another trade proposal I suggested while stating it was incredibly unlikely. 

But I don't want this tepid BS. Don't try and appease the fans so you can sell 2.4M tickets. You'll sell tickets if you have a great team and if you've got a 40/70 player and you've got a stacked lineup(and even more so if you sign him early in his career so you know he's there through his 20s).

 

I think moving to the next chapter is the better move and as much of a clean slate(while adding as many assets) as possible is the best way to go. 

[bigred]

16 hours ago, TURBO said:

Who is this Winkler fella you keep mentioning?

Maybe the Fonz? 🤷‍♂️ Lol

[Harold Hutchison]

10 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Being good defensively is dime a dozen. It’s a matter of how much offense you provide with that. Adames, provides like a garage offense. Not a bad mix, but he is set for $13mil next year.

Offer him 3 years, $50 million ($15 million in 2024, $17.5 million for 2024 and 2025, team option for 2026 w/$5 million buyout). Worst case, by the end of that point, Baez is ready to take over at short.

[nate82]

I think Adames to the Braves for Grissom and Ignacio Alvarez makes some sense here for the Braves and Brewers.

The Braves have soured a bit on Grissom.  I wonder if he would be better defensively at 2B over SS.  Turang at SS and Grissom at 2B should be a good inf for the Brewers defensively if Grissom can play a competent defense at 2B.

The best player IMHO coming back is Alvarez.  I don’t believe the Braves have the prospects to get Burnes so I don’t think the Brewers include him in the deal.  

[rickh150]

7 hours ago, bigred said:

Maybe the Fonz? 🤷‍♂️ Lol

Aaaaaaaayyy.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

On 10/6/2023 at 11:39 AM, LouisEly said:

Given his elite defensive metrics and a down year offensively, this past year is likely his floor.  Because of his defensive improvement, his war this past season (3.0 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR) was very similar to his 2021 WAR (3.6 bWAR, 3.3 fWAR) when he had a better offensive profile.  At ~3 WAR for his floor, maybe now is the time for an extension.  He just turned 28; I would not at all object to a 4-5 year, $80M-$100M extension. 

As we saw with Turang, offense at SS can be a whole lot worse that what Adames did this past year.

I can see this too. I have more faith in Willy than some, maybe, but I'm inclined to think he's going to get better offensively next year.