Very Early 2024 Roster Discussion

[brewmann04]

Gotta agree Burnes is going to on the block and they needvto get back something to build upon 

[wibadgers23]

If the Dodgers go out early, do they go big in the offseason and trade for Burnes AND Adames? They’ve already been rumored to be interested in Adames.

[nate82]

9 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

If the Dodgers go out early, do they go big in the offseason and trade for Burnes AND Adames? They’ve already been rumored to be interested in Adames.

Would rather deal them separately and get the best prospects possible.  Burnes to the Dodgers and then Adames to the Braves.

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Would rather deal them separately and get the best prospects possible.  Burnes to the Dodgers and then Adames to the Braves.

We better get Vaughn Grissom, Orlando Arcia, or Gavin Lux back in such a deal because no way am I comfortable going into next season with Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio as our middle infield. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I can see this too. I have more faith in Willy than some, maybe, but I'm inclined to think he's going to get better offensively next year.

Believe it or not, Willy is a huge breakout/bounceback candidate for next year. He's trimmed his K rate each of the last three seasons while simultaneously improving his walk rate, which was at 11.1% this season. He also dramatically underperformed his xwOBA. 

It's not a stretch to think he could put up a 5 or 6 WAR season next year in a contract season. Why I'm inclined to hold him at least until the deadline. 

[TURBO]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

We better get Vaughn Grissom, Orlando Arcia, or Gavin Lux back in such a deal because no way am I comfortable going into next season with Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio as our middle infield. 

Arcia?  Dude...

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Arcia?  Dude...

Brice Turang: 60 wRC+

Orlando Arcia: 99 wRC+

Obviously not as the main piece, but either him or Grissom would have to be involved imo. 

[yourout]

33 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Believe it or not, Willy is a huge breakout/bounceback candidate for next year. He's trimmed his K rate each of the last three seasons while simultaneously improving his walk rate, which was at 11.1% this season. He also dramatically underperformed his xwOBA. 

It's not a stretch to think he could put up a 5 or 6 WAR season next year in a contract season. Why I'm inclined to hold him at least until the deadline. 

I wish he'd shave about 6 in off of that front leg lift and about 10° off of that launch angle

[nate82]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

We better get Vaughn Grissom, Orlando Arcia, or Gavin Lux back in such a deal because no way am I comfortable going into next season with Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio as our middle infield. 

Turang would be fine and Arcia and Lux are not someone I would want back in any trade especially for Adames.  Turang future wise will be better than Arcia so not sure why you would want Arcia coming back at all.  Arcia had a better offensive year this year but I wouldn't count on that to continue.  Defensively Turang is about as good as what Arcia was advertised as being.  I would be fine with Turang as the Brewers starting SS as long as he is in the #9 or #8 spot in the lineup his offense would just be a bonus.  Plus Lux only has 3 more years of control.  Not someone the Brewers should be trading for and who knows if Lux will even be the same player he was when he comes back from his injury.  He may only be a 2B only with the torn ACL or he will have to move over to 3B so even if the Brewers got Lux back in a trade for Adames Turang is still the SS. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Turang would be fine and Arcia and Lux are not someone I would want back in any trade especially for Adames.  Turang future wise will be better than Arcia so not sure why you would want Arcia coming back at all.  Arcia had a better offensive year this year but I wouldn't count on that to continue.  Defensively Turang is about as good as what Arcia was advertised as being.  I would be fine with Turang as the Brewers starting SS as long as he is in the #9 or #8 spot in the lineup his offense would just be a bonus.  Plus Lux only has 3 more years of control.  Not someone the Brewers should be trading for and who knows if Lux will even be the same player he was when he comes back from his injury.  He may only be a 2B only with the torn ACL or he will have to move over to 3B so even if the Brewers got Lux back in a trade for Adames Turang is still the SS. 

I don't think there's any guarantee Turang is better than Arcia future wise. Or at least the version of Arcia from the past two seasons. Turang was pitiful this year, and didn't show many, if any, positive signs with the bat. 

Maybe you could get away with it if we had above average offensive production from 2B, but as of right now you'd be looking at Monasterio there...

So, I'd definitely want a major league middle infielder in any Adames trade. 

[Lathund]

I made a long post on the transactions forum with an offseason plan, so this'll be a very abbreviated version of it. Basically the gist of it is to keep focusing on the controllable talent already on the roster, as well as in the upper minors. Trade Burnes and Williams for MLB-ready or almost MLB-ready young players (i.e with an eye mostly on '25 and '26), give plenty of playing time to the young guys, but also use the entire budget given and shore up the weak areas of the team too. If the rookies (The 2023 and 2024 crops both) perform better than expected, let's have the complementary pieces for a run in a still weak division. 

Preliminary 26-man

C: Contreras, Henry/new singning/eventually Quero

IF: Canha/Hoskins/other signing, Turang, Adames, Black, Monasterio, Drury (or similar RHH bat)

OF: Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick, two of Taylor/Perkins/Wiemer. Chourio at some point. Maybe even opening day, but likely later. 

SP: Peralta, Woodruff, Gasser, Ashby, Miley (Or a Miley-like signing). Rodriguez, Junk, McKendry, veteran depth signing backing up.

RP: Uribe, Payamps, Megill, Milner, Peguero, Wilson, Bukauskas, Small (I'm sure some relievers will be acquired too, but no guessing who it'll be)

There might also be players in the Burnes/Williams trades who might be ready already in 2024, but too hard to predict.

Generally the goal in acquisitions should be to try to find some power. Rhys Hoskins if he's not too expensive perhaps. But more likely some 1-year stopgaps, platoon bats. Brandon Drury is one such example. Mitch Garver for a C/DH perhaps. Other than that, SP depth due to trading Burnes and uncertainty regardnig Woody. I like the young SPs coming through, but better to end up with too many than too few SPs. 

Also I find myself disagreeing with a couple of notions that seem common with our fanbase. Firstly that Adames somehow doesn't have any value. He had a down year, but is still a 3+ WAR player at what is likely his worst. xwOBA was the best of his career still, so there's a good chance of a bounceback. I'm sure every single front office values him higher than the average Brewers fan does. The second one is Canha vs Santana. If there's a significant difference in price, then sure I see the value in Santana. But Canha has been a significantly better hitter this year as well as every year for the last 4 years, and is 3 years younger so probably less risk of a sudden decline. Yes, Santana has more power. But what matters is still the overall output. A team lacking power could trade *some* overall output for less, but more power-focused production, but not enough of a difference to motivate it here. Santana is also the better defender, but not enough to make much of a difference. Santana as a stopgap for Wilken/Black is fine, but that's basically saying that league average offense (i.e 100 wRC+) is the absolute ceiling from 1B this year. I'd hope to do better, even if it means more risk. 

[BruisedCrew]

It seems like almost all,of the discussion about trading Burnes involves getting a “haul” of prospects for him. 
 

But, if the Brewers are confident that their minor league system is strong, wouldn’t it make sense for a trade involving Burnes to include the Brewers getting a player that has already had at least some success in MLB to provide some immediate help, preferably at one of the positions where the Brewers were especially weak in 2023 (like 1B or 3B)?

I don’t follow other teams’ rosters or minor league prospects anywhere near well enough to name specific players. But maybe someone who has an MLB track record similar to what Yelich had when the Brewers acquired him. A big market team with a lot of hitting but a strong need for a top of the rotation starter might be willing to part with one of their younger, established hitters, especially if they think they have a replacement for the hitter in their system. 

[wntrtxn21]

18 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

We better get Vaughn Grissom, Orlando Arcia, or Gavin Lux back in such a deal because no way am I comfortable going into next season with Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio as our middle infield. 

Grissom faied miserably twice at SS for the Braves. That's why they got Arcia. I wouldn't want Arcia back unless he was a throw-in. I'd rather see the young guys play. Lux is coming off a season long injury and is questionable how he will bounce back. 

 

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, wntrtxn21 said:

Grissom faied miserably twice at SS for the Braves. That's why they got Arcia. I wouldn't want Arcia back unless he was a throw-in. I'd rather see the young guys play. Lux is coming off a season long injury and is questionable how he will bounce back. 

 

Arcia: 99 wRC+ in 2023

Lux: 99 career wRC+ (114 wRC+ in 2022)

Grissom: 107 career wRC+ 

Turang: 60 wRC+ in 2023

Monasterio: 88 wRC+ in 2023 

If Grissom "failed miserably" (he didn't in 2022 btw), then what do you call what Turang did this year? 

[wiguy94]

17 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Arcia: 99 wRC+ in 2023

Lux: 99 career wRC+ (114 wRC+ in 2022)

Grissom: 107 career wRC+ 

Turang: 60 wRC+ in 2023

Monasterio: 88 wRC+ in 2023 

If Grissom "failed miserably" (he didn't in 2022 btw), then what do you call what Turang did this year? 

Maybe talking defensively where Grissom is an absolute butcher in the middle infield? In roughly 530 career innings in the middle infield he has -10 DRS, -21.7 UZR/150, and -13 OAA. He has a 107 wRC+ but only 0.1 fWAR because his defense has been that bad.

[TURBO]

14 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Maybe talking defensively where Grissom is an absolute butcher in the middle infield? In roughly 530 career innings in the middle infield he has -10 DRS, -21.7 UZR/150, and -13 OAA. He has a 107 wRC+ but only 0.1 fWAR because his defense has been that bad.

Grissom = Hiura defensively?

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Maybe talking defensively where Grissom is an absolute butcher in the middle infield? In roughly 530 career innings in the middle infield he has -10 DRS, -21.7 UZR/150, and -13 OAA. He has a 107 wRC+ but only 0.1 fWAR because his defense has been that bad.

Sure. But Turang is waving a wet noodle with the bat (and not showing many positive signs) and his defense isn't as good at SS. And Monasterio's not exactly great with the glove or the bat. Why I don't want to trade Adames in the first place, but if we did, I'd want another major league MIfer in return because no way am I comfortable with Turang and Monasterio as our MI. 

[wiguy94]

18 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Sure. But Turang is waving a wet noodle with the bat (and not showing many positive signs) and his defense isn't as good at SS. And Monasterio's not exactly great with the glove or the bat. Why I don't want to trade Adames in the first place, but if we did, I'd want another major league MIfer in return because no way am I comfortable with Turang and Monasterio as our MI. 

They could always just trade for a different infielder or sign one in FA. No reason to dilute a potential Adames return getting back average players like Arcia, Grissom, Lux.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

It seems like almost all,of the discussion about trading Burnes involves getting a “haul” of prospects for him. 
 

But, if the Brewers are confident that their minor league system is strong, wouldn’t it make sense for a trade involving Burnes to include the Brewers getting a player that has already had at least some success in MLB to provide some immediate help, preferably at one of the positions where the Brewers were especially weak in 2023 (like 1B or 3B)?

I don’t follow other teams’ rosters or minor league prospects anywhere near well enough to name specific players. But maybe someone who has an MLB track record similar to what Yelich had when the Brewers acquired him. A big market team with a lot of hitting but a strong need for a top of the rotation starter might be willing to part with one of their younger, established hitters, especially if they think they have a replacement for the hitter in their system. 

I can't think of a team that'd both do that and want to trade for one year of Corbin Burnes. They're at cross purposes....which is why there is a pretty standard formula here.

I guess if I was pressed, I'd say you could argue for a Braves trade that includes Michael Harris II type player. The problem there is he has SO much more value than Burnes, you'd have to start adding prospects to send back to the Braves. That's assuming they'd even consider a trade like that. But moving closer to someone who's been really good, that type of production, has ~3 years of team control left...I couldn't come up with a name. To be fair, I haven't spent too much time looking for one, so perhaps someone else could, but I'm just of the opinion you shouldn't worry about 2024 and take a micro view, this trade should be made by looking at what's best for the Brewers through 2030 rather than 2024 and their immediate needs. A position not all posters hold. 

 

I also think the Brewers can be confident their Minor League System is strong and choose to add to it. It allows for them to be more need driven perhaps rather than just taking back the BPA. They can target certain young arms. Or maybe they won't even do that, I don't know. But prospects with nearly 7 years of team control are so valuable, they don't all have to end up on the field for us. 

I'd also argue the best way to get a top farm system and then more importantly, maintain it is by making these type of moves. Really just adding talent through the three main options available. LA, MLB draft, trading star players they can't afford. 

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

They could always just trade for a different infielder or sign one in FA. No reason to dilute a potential Adames return getting back average players like Arcia, Grissom, Lux.

I don’t know if I’d call Lux average. Or at least the latest version of him we saw in 2022. 

Id hope it’d be the trade market because the FA pool for MIfers is the worst it’s ever been.

[wibadgers23]

I know Baltimore doesn’t like to trade their prospects but it sure looks like they could use an experienced veteran on their pitching staff like Burnes.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

But, if the Brewers are confident that their minor league system is strong, wouldn’t it make sense for a trade involving Burnes to include the Brewers getting a player that has already had at least some success in MLB to provide some immediate help, preferably at one of the positions where the Brewers were especially weak in 2023 (like 1B or 3B)?

Not at 1B or 3B, because Black and Wilken are knocking on the door (and somewhat loudly).

They will need to get back at least one ML-ready SP for Burnes though as with Woodruff's injury they'll be thin there.

[wiguy94]

38 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don’t know if I’d call Lux average. Or at least the latest version of him we saw in 2022. 

Id hope it’d be the trade market because the FA pool for MIfers is the worst it’s ever been.

48th percentile xwOBA in 2022 which is nothing special. He had a .341 BABIP which doesn't at all seem sustainable for a guy who doesn't have a big sweet spot rate and doesn't hit the ball hard. 

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Not at 1B or 3B, because Black and Wilken are knocking on the door (and somewhat loudly).

They will need to get back at least one ML-ready SP for Burnes though as with Woodruff's injury they'll be thin there.

I don't think they should be trading for next year.  I think they should be building around the Frelick, Chourio, Gasser, Black, Quero core, which is AA/AAA level.  I'd like to maximize the return.  Not get a Greg Vaughn return just to fill the MLB with mediocre talent. 

[BruisedCrew]

11 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Not at 1B or 3B, because Black and Wilken are knocking on the door (and somewhat loudly).

They will need to get back at least one ML-ready SP for Burnes though as with Woodruff's injury they'll be thin there.

I am more wary than some people of counting too heavily on players that have not proven that they can hit major league pitching. 
 

It’s one of the reasons that I hope that the Brewers don’t trade Adames this off-season.  Even his disappointing performances are better than what many (if not most) rookies produce, and his defense and clubhouse presence have value too.