Burnes Trade Megathread

[BrewerFan]

36 minutes ago, nate82 said:

You are the only one who said Cy Young voting.

Top 5 in stats as Sveum has pointed out is what an Ace should be judged on.

Really?

How do you win a Cy Young? Via...VOTING if I'm not mistaken. 

On 11/5/2023 at 1:46 PM, nate82 said:

Burnes is also 3-years now removed from his CY Young

That's you...quite literally using Cy Young voting to set what the perception of Burnes was.

So no, I was not the "only one," who used Cy Young voting, I was using your barometer. 

But fine, over the last two years, he's been either the 5th or the 12th most valuable pitcher in Baseball and he's 29 with a Cy Young. I'm pretty sure he'll still be viewed as an ace. 

Do you want to use War now? Whatever we use, lets make sure the target isn't moving and dodging as it makes it rather difficult to hit that target.

 

I've seen maybe a dozen articles about Corbin Burnes being traded. Different team sites, SI, the Athletic, every single one of them refers to him as an Ace. He's 3rd in fWAR the last 3 seasons, he's been in the top 7 in voting the last 3 seasons...he didn't have a career year this year and now you don't think he's an ace. Disagree. Even Aces see some variation in their performance.

IIRC, both Greinke and Sabathia had either subpar seasons for their standards either the year before we traded for them, or in Sabathia's case, the almost 20 starts the year we traded for him. I don't recall people saying, "well, he's a #1 more than an ace."

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

I believe someone suggested the Orioles - a deal centered around 3B/1B Coby Mayo was suggested. That would be an interesting starting spot.

 

Yes, MLB.com mentioned the O's. Cowser(14th ranked prospect at the end of last year), Westburg(~70s) and a AAA starter with a ERA of ~5, but a ton of strikeouts. 

There have been a lot and all seem to reflect the opinion that Burnes is an ace. 

 

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Really?

How do you win a Cy Young? Via...VOTING if I'm not mistaken. 

I have no idea what you are talking about here.  You are the one who said Cy Young voting is how an Ace is determined. 

Here is exactly what I said: Burnes is also 3-years now removed from his CY Young season and he hasn't replicated or come close to that season since.  The Cy Young season meaning the stats he put up in that season not the voting for Cy Young.

What does voting for Cy Young have to do with anything I said?  There is absolutely nothing in my post stating Cy Young voting that is all on you.  You are the one who brought up Cy Young voting. 

 

[TURBO]

One thing to take into consideration is this:

Does Burnes even want to sign a big contract with us?  I'm going to guess, NO, he does not.

Like Counsell, I think Burnes wants out of Milwaukee too, and if we keep him this year without trading him, I highly doubt we are on his list of teams he wants to sign with in 2025.

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

I have no idea what you are talking about here.  You are the one who said Cy Young voting is how an Ace is determined. 

Here is exactly what I said: Burnes is also 3-years now removed from his CY Young season and he hasn't replicated or come close to that season since.  The Cy Young season meaning the stats he put up in that season not the voting for Cy Young.

What does voting for Cy Young have to do with anything I said?  There is absolutely nothing in my post stating Cy Young voting that is all on you.  You are the one who brought up Cy Young voting. 

 

I don't know how this is confusing. YOU used the Cy Young as the barometer for what an ace. I pointed out he finished 6th and 7th the two other years(no voting this year). 

It's pretty straightforward. 

If you have "no idea what I'm talking about," I don't know how to go any further.

The issue is how he's perceived though. He's perceived as an ace. You can find a dozen+ articles, that refer to him as an ace, 3rd in WAR the past 3 seasons, and led the league in WHIP.

NOT being quite as good as he was when he was the most dominant pitcher in the league doesn't mean he's not an ace. 

Quote

If you think Burnes is going to get an ace pitcher type of return you are going to be very disappointed when you hear the names that will get thrown around for Burnes. 

Yeah, I don't think we will to put it even more simply. The Names being thrown around for Burnes now aren't disappointed and those are coming from numerous other sites. 

A top ~50, top ~100 and a 3rd prospect. That's what most people on here seem to expect as well as most of the proposals I've seen. 

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, TURBO said:

One thing to take into consideration is this:

Does Burnes even want to sign a big contract with us?  I'm going to guess, NO, he does not.

Like Counsell, I think Burnes wants out of Milwaukee too, and if we keep him this year without trading him, I highly doubt we are on his list of teams he wants to sign with in 2025.

I think we're mostly passed this. It's not even about where he WANTS to sign IMO, we don't have the money to sign him without having a grossly imbalanced payroll with 2 players comprising...~35%+ of it. 22 for Yelich, I'd guess Burnes is in line to get 35. That'd be 57. We just had a payroll of ~138. That's over 40%. 

So even if he wanted to, it's unlikely this close to FA, we'd get him signed now or next year.

 

We should be looking at it as 1 year of Burnes and then the QO, or whatever we can get for him in a trade. Just the realities of being in this market. 

[BigFickEnergy]

Jackson Holiday and John Means for Burnes, Adames, Wiemer and Robert Moore. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, BigFickEnergy said:

Jackson Holiday and John Means for Burnes, Adames, Wiemer and Robert Moore. 

Welcome to the site! That username, though.

😂

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

David Stearns is on record saying that his biggest target for the Mets this offseason is starting pitching. The Brewers, as always, it seems, have huge holes to fill on the corner infield spots. Would a Burnes for Pete Alonzo/Brett Baty package be that crazy? 

[holy rollers]

17 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

You want the Brewers to give Burnes 6 years at 44M per year?

~260 for 6 years of a pitcher...for the Brewers...of Milwaukee? The Milwaukee in Wisconsin? 

 

Yeah, I think that'd do it. I think we'd be crazy at this point to give Burnes 44M a year over 6 years. I'd MUCH rather give Chourio half that over 10 years and then have some financial flexibility when you have the core of the #2/3 system in Baseball coming up and getting to arbitration. 

Yeah i know the Brewers won't do it, But its the one time they actually could make a mega extension and still keep their preferred budgets of around $120 mil. The young guys wont get pricy until year two of arbitration which for most of them wont be till 2026 or 2027.  

We have been competitive last few years with really terrible hitting and good pitching so keeping good pitching and hoping the young cheap bats turn into good hitting to compliment it seems an easier path then getting more prospects. 

The good news of a mega extension is it forces them to play the young guys and avoid five $5-$9 million deals for retread washed up guys hoping for one last flash. 

[nate82]

48 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Would a Burnes for Pete Alonzo/Brett Baty package be that crazy?

Alonso wouldn’t make sense for the Brewers if they are trading Burnes.  Batty makes some sense but I think Mauricio also makes sense.  Would need to add a couple other pieces to the trade but a Batty or Mauricio headliner is probably the starting point for the Brewers.

[wiguy94]

16 hours ago, TURBO said:

One thing to take into consideration is this:

Does Burnes even want to sign a big contract with us?  I'm going to guess, NO, he does not.

Like Counsell, I think Burnes wants out of Milwaukee too, and if we keep him this year without trading him, I highly doubt we are on his list of teams he wants to sign with in 2025.

I mean I think everyone agrees with that. It's just what do you value more. 1 seasons of Burnes and a compensatory pick or prospects in return.

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

David Stearns is on record saying that his biggest target for the Mets this offseason is starting pitching. The Brewers, as always, it seems, have huge holes to fill on the corner infield spots. Would a Burnes for Pete Alonzo/Brett Baty package be that crazy? 

It seems similar to the Goldschmidt trade suggestion. I guess it'd depend on how highly you viewed Baty and if Cohen is going to push to re-sign Alanso, a NY favorite, but a significant amount of the value in a return would be a power-hitting 1B who's a rental in a year where we'd be without Woody and trading Burnes. 

I think we should be focused on getting young pitching back. The Phillies could be a team who are pretty desperate. They've been close, they have some massive investments, Nola is a FA. Burnes+Williams and see if we can pry Painter and a couple lower level arms away. That'd be ideal. From Phillies viewpoint, that may be a guy they're not willing to give up, so then Abel could become the center piece. 

 

Adames, unless he's valued as a 4-5 WAR player, I think the deadline makes more sense. But I'm just not as excited about looking for help in 2024. It's not gonna be like the Packers this year(I don't think). But I also don't really think we'll be a contender, so I'd really just be looking for people who could help us over the next 5-7 years and particularly on the mound. I think looking to "fix," the lineup is looking back and the next 5-6 years, our offense looks like it's set up pretty good. 

 

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, BigFickEnergy said:

Jackson Holiday and John Means for Burnes, Adames, Wiemer and Robert Moore. 

That'd certainly be going all in for the Os. 

Then we can sign both Chourio and Holliday for 10/150M extensions right away...re-create the '82 Brewers of Young/Molitor. That'd be fun, right! 

I'm guessing Baltimore probably doesn't consider that trade for very long, but it'd certainly be fun #3/4 combo in the future with Chourio and Holliday at SS/CF!

Burnes+Williams+Adames is an overpay...per the MLB trade value site(which is another reason why that doesn't need to be consulted). 

 

Just an aside, has any team ever had two prospects the caliber of Chourio and Holliday on the same team in the same minor league system? 

 

 

[Matt Breen]

It will be interesting to see if a good market emerges for Burnes. I'm not sure there will as there are a lot of good arms available in FA. Because of that, I don't think you'll see much talk about Burnes until after the big names sign: Ohtani (well, not this year), Montgomery, Yamamoto, Snell, Nola, Gray, Imanaga, Rodriguez, Stroman - probably forgot a guy or two.

People just won't want to give up a good prospect or two for Burnes - and then have to sign him to a new contract - when they can add a good arm in free agency for just money. So I'm guessing interest in Burnes will emerge amongst teams if they lose out on the premium starters. 

Of course, there's a second and third tier of starters - guys like Giolito, Lugo, Flaherty, Wacha, Maeda, Clevinger, Lorenzen, Montas and others - but the quality and health and age of these guys makes them a bit dicey. But some teams will turn to them rather than pony up a top prospect for Burnes.

I'm not opposed to the team dealing Burnes. But in the end, it will be interesting to see if a market emerges that will meet what price we are looking for.

[brewers888]

8 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

David Stearns is on record saying that his biggest target for the Mets this offseason is starting pitching. The Brewers, as always, it seems, have huge holes to fill on the corner infield spots. Would a Burnes for Pete Alonzo/Brett Baty package be that crazy? 

From the little I've seen of Baty he appears to be a butcher defensively which is why I think Stearns will move in but also why we will have no interest. As for Alonso no thanks to a one year guy in any Burnes trade.

[Lathund]

14 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

It will be interesting to see if a good market emerges for Burnes. I'm not sure there will as there are a lot of good arms available in FA. Because of that, I don't think you'll see much talk about Burnes until after the big names sign: Ohtani (well, not this year), Montgomery, Yamamoto, Snell, Nola, Gray, Imanaga, Rodriguez, Stroman - probably forgot a guy or two.

People just won't want to give up a good prospect or two for Burnes - and then have to sign him to a new contract - when they can add a good arm in free agency for just money. So I'm guessing interest in Burnes will emerge amongst teams if they lose out on the premium starters. 

Of course, there's a second and third tier of starters - guys like Giolito, Lugo, Flaherty, Wacha, Maeda, Clevinger, Lorenzen, Montas and others - but the quality and health and age of these guys makes them a bit dicey. But some teams will turn to them rather than pony up a top prospect for Burnes.

I'm not opposed to the team dealing Burnes. But in the end, it will be interesting to see if a market emerges that will meet what price we are looking for.

I think the Burnes market could be pretty good. For one thing there's a lot of team that have a lot of holes to fill. Secondly Burnes, even when he's not pitching to the CY levels, is still better than most of those guys. And there will be some teams for whom 1 year and ~$15m is preferable to a long deal, even if they have to give up something for it. Won't be an extreme sellers market or anything, but there will be demand for a guy who is durable, adaptable, cheap for what you're getting. Let's not forget that over the last 4 years he leads all starters in ERA-, FIP-, WHIP, BAA, to take some few stats. And is 5th in IP. He's valuable, and he'll at least get the team a QO draft pick back. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

According to Ken Rosenthal's latest column in the Athletic, the Brewers are open for business and are looking at a soft rebuild. 

https://theathletic.com/5047458/2023/11/09/mlb-free-agency-trade-brewers-royals/

Quote

Those sources, briefed on the Brewers’ discussions but not authorized to discuss them publicly, say the team is open to moving virtually any player on its roster.

 

[brewmann04]

lets see them open for Business

[patrickgpe]

49 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

According to Ken Rosenthal's latest column in the Athletic, the Brewers are open for business and are looking at a soft rebuild. 

https://theathletic.com/5047458/2023/11/09/mlb-free-agency-trade-brewers-royals/

 

this is great news. Sell off the high priced vets / soon to be FA's. let the kids play. Be competitive in a year or 2. Thats what the Brewers should be doing. 

[SF70]

10 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

this is great news. Sell off the high priced vets / soon to be FA's. let the kids play. Be competitive in a year or 2. Thats what the Brewers should be doing. 

If the team trades Burnes it will be because they got a deal they couldn’t refuse. Same with Williams and Adames. 

They would likely get prospects/players that would also help next years team compete, 

Attanasio’s recent statements of the team having the 5th best record in baseball and able to compete with anybody flies in the face of a sell-off for prospects, imo.

[TURBO]

Looking at their current roster, I would think that probably only Contreras is truly untouchable.  Maybe, MAYBE, Peralta could be the next closest.  Uribe?

Anyone else, if the offer is too good to pass up, should be tradeable.

[Jake McKibbin]

9 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Looking at their current roster, I would think that probably only Contreras is truly untouchable.  Maybe, MAYBE, Peralta could be the next closest.  Uribe?

Anyone else, if the offer is too good to pass up, should be tradeable.

Yeah I think the Brewers have talked openly in the past about how no-one is untradeable, and they'll always have to take calls, but that certainly doesn't imply they want to sell them. And to be fair to Arnold, every deal so far he's been on the winning side of, and again I could quote the Brewers as saying something along the lines of trying to get the better part of every trade in their eyes at the time

[Fear The Chorizo]

Burnes to the Cubs for CC and cash...we need a manager!

I think the Brewers will get plenty of interest for teams trying to acquire Burnes this offseason - whether or not it's enough to trade him before Opening Day 2024 remains to be seen.  I also think they could easily go through the arbitration process 1 more season with Burnes and see where things are a few months into the season - if they aren't in contention they could still get a haul for him before next season's deadline. 

If it's an offseason deal, I'd like to match up with either the Orioles or Dodgers simply due to the impact prospects that could be headed to Milwaukee in exchange for Burnes.  Both teams really could use a top end starter and they've got prospect capital to burn.

[patrickgpe]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

If the team trades Burnes it will be because they got a deal they couldn’t refuse. Same with Williams and Adames. 

They would likely get prospects/players that would also help next years team compete, 

Attanasio’s recent statements of the team having the 5th best record in baseball and able to compete with anybody flies in the face of a sell-off for prospects, imo.

No, it will be because Woody is it out for the year, their elite manager is coaching their rival and they know Burnes is gone next offseason. Its going to be hard to make one last run in 2024 now. Got to be realistic.