Congrats to William Contreras

[markedman5]

 

[Brewcrew82]

Well deserved. Was truly the best catcher in the NL this year. Lock him up!

[markedman5]

As we look forward to the uncertaintiy of this offseason let’s take at least a little comfort that the guy calling the shots acquired William Contreras for Esteury Ruiz……’ and then had the stones to say that’s not quite enough…….and got them to throw in Joel Payamps and another pitching prospect who may or may not turn out to be an asset.

[MrTPlush]

12 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

As we look forward to the uncertaintiy of this offseason let’s take at least a little comfort that the guy calling the shots acquired William Contreras for Esteury Ruiz……’ and then had the stones to say that’s not quite enough…….and got them to throw in Joel Payamps and another pitching prospect who may or may not turn out to be an asset.

A’s are so dumb it is hard to comprehend sometimes. Nothing about that trade will ever make sense.

 

 

[logani54]

Next up: Top 10 MVP finish

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 11/9/2023 at 6:00 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Well deserved. Was truly the best catcher in the NL this year. Lock him up!

Yes, please.

[Lloyd330]

offer him a 7/80 deal. 

[nate82]

14 hours ago, Lloyd330 said:

offer him a 7/80 deal. 

He would turn that down not enough $/year.  I think he would accept something closer to 15-17 per year.  So if you want to go 7-years then something like 7/108 is what you would need to offer.

[monty57]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

He would turn that down not enough $/year.  I think he would accept something closer to 15-17 per year.  So if you want to go 7-years then something like 7/108 is what you would need to offer.

He still has a year of pre-arby and three arby years. If he’s worth $15-$17 on the open market, it would break down something like: $1M / $4M / $8M / $11M / $15M / $16M / $17M. Even if he’s worth $20M on the open market, I don’t see him averaging $15-$17M a year on a 7-year deal with four of those years being pre-arby/arby. 
 

Burnes is going to sign a monster deal after next season, and he’s only projected to make around $16M in his final arby year. A team generally only signs an early extension if they get some discount vs what the player would expect from going year-to-year, so I don’t think Lloyd’s 7/$80 is too out of line, and may be a bit high. Something like $1M / $5 / $9 / $12 /$16 / $18 / $19 would be a pretty tempting offer for Contrares. I’d say it’s probably an overpay since his brother signed a FA deal (no arby/pre-arby) for 5/$87.5. 

[nate82]

3 hours ago, monty57 said:

He still has a year of pre-arby and three arby years. If he’s worth $15-$17 on the open market, it would break down something like: $1M / $4M / $8M / $11M / $15M / $16M / $17M. Even if he’s worth $20M on the open market, I don’t see him averaging $15-$17M a year on a 7-year deal with four of those years being pre-arby/arby. 
 

Burnes is going to sign a monster deal after next season, and he’s only projected to make around $16M in his final arby year. A team generally only signs an early extension if they get some discount vs what the player would expect from going year-to-year, so I don’t think Lloyd’s 7/$80 is too out of line, and may be a bit high. Something like $1M / $5 / $9 / $12 /$16 / $18 / $19 would be a pretty tempting offer for Contrares. I’d say it’s probably an overpay since his brother signed a FA deal (no arby/pre-arby) for 5/$87.5. 

The team can offer less but I don't see him accepting.  The 7/80 is definitely not a bit high.  It is a bit low as you are not going to get an Albies contract accepted and you are probably looking at the low end being what Acuna signed for 8/100.  But I don't see Contreras even accepting the same contract that Acuna signed for. 

Plus Contreras being on the older side this would be his one and only big time contract so for a 7-year deal you are going to have to overpay for years 5-7.  Hence why I believe you will need to get closer to the 15-17 per year average.  For the 7/80 it is not enough as you are only averaging about $11mm per year.  You will need to up that amount or give Contreras an opt out after year 5 which only gives you one free agent year. 

It just doesn't make sense for Contreras to sign a 7/80 type of a deal unless you are giving Contreras an out after year 5.  His arbitration years 2 and 3 should get him at $10mm in year 2 and over the $11mm in his final arbitration year.  You have to pay for that final arbitration year and the free agent years you are buying out. 

His brother was also older when he signed his deal and his average per year is about $18mm.  The final three years to equal what his brother got would need to be in the $15-17mm range which you already broke down.  So the $15M / $16M / $17M is what you would need to get to in order for him to sign. 

[monty57]

18 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The team can offer less but I don't see him accepting.  The 7/80 is definitely not a bit high.  It is a bit low as you are not going to get an Albies contract accepted and you are probably looking at the low end being what Acuna signed for 8/100.  But I don't see Contreras even accepting the same contract that Acuna signed for. 

Plus Contreras being on the older side this would be his one and only big time contract so for a 7-year deal you are going to have to overpay for years 5-7.  Hence why I believe you will need to get closer to the 15-17 per year average.  For the 7/80 it is not enough as you are only averaging about $11mm per year.  You will need to up that amount or give Contreras an opt out after year 5 which only gives you one free agent year. 

It just doesn't make sense for Contreras to sign a 7/80 type of a deal unless you are giving Contreras an out after year 5.  His arbitration years 2 and 3 should get him at $10mm in year 2 and over the $11mm in his final arbitration year.  You have to pay for that final arbitration year and the free agent years you are buying out. 

His brother was also older when he signed his deal and his average per year is about $18mm.  The final three years to equal what his brother got would need to be in the $15-17mm range which you already broke down.  So the $15M / $16M / $17M is what you would need to get to in order for him to sign. 

He still has one pre-arby year left, and should only get $1-2M for that.  That brings the average way down, and makes it very difficult to get the average per year to the level you’re stating with only three FA years unless you think he’s a $30M player. I had $1 / $4 / $8 / $11 / $15 / $16 / $17. That gets you to 7/$72. If you agree with the free agent years of 15/16/17, and say his arby 2 should be at $10 (I had $8) and arby 3 at $11, which is what I had, you seem to be at 7/$74. 
 

His brother is a good comp, and he got $17.5M per free agent year (no arby or pre-arby years in his deal).  If you change my three FA years to $17.5, you’re only adding $4.5M. Some adjustments can be made to the arby years to get it over $80 for seven years, but if he demands more than $100M, it would be for eight years (like Acuna) and with another high-priced FA year, you could possibly get to around $100M. 

But this is a congrats to Contreras thread. He had a great year, I’m extremely happy we traded for him, and I’d love to get him extended. 

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, monty57 said:

He still has one pre-arby year left, and should only get $1-2M for that.  That brings the average way down, and makes it very difficult to get the average per year to the level you’re stating with only three FA years unless you think he’s a $30M player. I had $1 / $4 / $8 / $11 / $15 / $16 / $17. That gets you to 7/$72. If you agree with the free agent years of 15/16/17, and say his arby 2 should be at $10 (I had $8) and arby 3 at $11, which is what I had, you seem to be at 7/$74. 
 

His brother is a good comp, and he got $17.5M per free agent year (no arby or pre-arby years in his deal).  If you change my three FA years to $17.5, you’re only adding $4.5M. Some adjustments can be made to the arby years to get it over $80 for seven years, but if he demands more than $100M, it would be for eight years (like Acuna) and with another high-priced FA year, you could possibly get to around $100M. 

But this is a congrats to Contreras thread. He had a great year, I’m extremely happy we traded for him, and I’d love to get him extended. 

Yeah, for a guy 4 years away from being a FA, that's a pretty reasonable number.

Obviously, not everyone accepts the deal, but 80M GTD at a position that takes quite a toll on one's health? That seems pretty accurate.

We also have one of the elite catching prospects in the game in AA. So the extension serves two purposes in my mind. You can keep both, DH William more often, have them each play ~130 games(especially if Quero continues to hit well). OR...while it's premature now, locking Contreras up makes him more appealing in a trade if he keeps hitting. 

[Redd Vencher]

Sean Murphy signed a 6 year $73 M extension in his first arbitration season last offseason. 7 years $80 M would definitely get it done assuming Contreras doesn't want to go year to year instead. 

[homer]

Waiting on an extension? Love these cryptic tweets:

 

 

[torts]

What if they extend both contreras and their #1 prospect before winter meetings??  That'd be sick

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, homer said:

Waiting on an extension? Love these cryptic tweets:

 

 

I was thinking the same thing.  I wish we found out what his previous ones were about. 

[nate82]

2 hours ago, homer said:

Waiting on an extension? Love these cryptic tweets:

 

 

Countdown to spring training for catchers and pitchers.  Each clock equals a month.  Catchers normally report in February I think it is?