MLBTR's Possible Trade Partners for Corbin Burnes

[vandy54]

It's interesting that so many teams are in the mix for Cease (Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox), yet there doesn't seem to be much news about Burnes. You would think those same teams would be trying to get Burnes, especially once Cease is dealt... unless every team thinks the Brewers are asking for too much for a 1 year rental. It also could just be the case that most news about the Brewers only comes out after a transaction has been finalized (or very close to completed), so we just aren't hearing what teams are in the mix. Still it's interesting that so many teams are still targeting top SPs... gives me hope that the Brewers can still deal Burnes for a good haul.

[brewerfan82]

2 minutes ago, vandy54 said:

It's interesting that so many teams are in the mix for Cease (Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox), yet there doesn't seem to be much news about Burnes. You would think those same teams would be trying to get Burnes, especially once Cease is dealt... unless every team thinks the Brewers are asking for too much for a 1 year rental. It also could just be the case that most news about the Brewers only comes out after a transaction has been finalized (or very close to completed), so we just aren't hearing what teams are in the mix. Still it's interesting that so many teams are still targeting top SPs... gives me hope that the Brewers can still deal Burnes for a good haul.

I think all those assumptions are correct. I would also add that Cease is one year younger, is estimated to cost $6M less this year, has an additional year of control, and probably most importantly is on a team coming off a 101 loss season and isn't expected to compete this year vs. Burnes is on a team coming off a division title and while they might be retooling a bit, they definitely have more motivation to keep him than the Sox do Cease at this point.

Not saying the Brewers should or shouldn't keep Burnes, there's just more of an argument to be made that they might actually want to keep him this year and see what happens. The White Sox have already traded away players and are coming off a horrible season, so they're a better bet to be willing to continue flipping their current talent for a better shot a few years down the road.

All that said, expect a Burnes trade this afternoon.

[wibadgers23]

4 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I think all those assumptions are correct. I would also add that Cease is one year younger, is estimated to cost $6M less this year, has an additional year of control, and probably most importantly is on a team coming off a 101 loss season and isn't expected to compete this year vs. Burnes is on a team coming off a division title and while they might be retooling a bit, they definitely have more motivation to keep him than the Sox do Cease at this point.

Not saying the Brewers should or shouldn't keep Burnes, there's just more of an argument to be made that they might actually want to keep him this year and see what happens. The White Sox have already traded away players and are coming off a horrible season, so they're a better bet to be willing to continue flipping their current talent for a better shot a few years down the road.

All that said, expect a Burnes trade this afternoon.

Good points. It’s possible once Cease gets dealt and Snell and Montgomery sign that teams will get serious about Burnes but I get the impression that the Brewers aren’t motivated at all to trade him. Maybe that changes over the next few weeks. Who knows.

[Playing Catch]

I agree with the last few posts... My guess is that teams believe that, in terms of trade value, Cease>Burnes primarily due to the extra year of control.

Perhaps teams are slowly ramping up to an offer for Cease, and then the losers of that auction will then turn their attention to Burnes(?)

[nate82]

Just now, Playing Catch said:

I agree with the last few posts... My guess is that teams believe that, in terms of trade value, Cease>Burnes primarily due to the extra year of control.

Perhaps teams are slowly ramping up to an offer for Cease, and then the losers of that auction will then turn their attention to Burnes(?)

One has already bowed out in the Braves for Cease and Burnes and went with Sale.  The Dodgers still could go out and get Burnes but it would be on their terms and not the Brewers.  So if it is the Dodgers expect something extremely light where the Brewers don't even consider the trade.

I don't believe the Orioles have ever been in on or involved with a Burnes trade.  Maybe for Peralta but I don't think they would give up the prospects to get someone like Peralta.  Which comes to the Cease problem, the Orioles have been connected to Cease but it doesn't look like the Orioles are willing to part with any of their prospects even for Cease.  If Cease or Burnes do get traded it is because the Brewers and White Sox GM's decide to take what they can get now than risk waiting for the trade deadline, which I don't believe will happen so no trade for either.  It is either take a lesser offer from the Yankees, Orioles or Dodgers or wait it out until the deadline. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

FWIW, I'm hearing Burnes talks are starting back up in earnest. Still no idea if a deal gets done but after the holiday break when everything basically stopped, real talks are happening again.

[brewers888]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

FWIW, I'm hearing Burnes talks are starting back up in earnest. Still no idea if a deal gets done but after the holiday break when everything basically stopped, real talks are happening again.

I really hope a deal gets done.

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I really hope a deal gets done.

If nothing else, I hope I can figure out what offers the Brewers are rejecting.

[Playing Catch]

The other thing with Burnes is that the teams that would be trading for him know that there is little hope/expectation that he would sign an extension. I see in all of these team-specific threads on Burnes that it's hard to find an acceptable trade for both sides. In the Yankees thread, for instance, even the fanbases can't find a trade that they both like.

[Playing Catch]

We, as fans, may need to either just accept that he'll be on the team at least until the deadline, or the Brewers will get back a package that we don't really like.

[TURBO]

If he is here on opening day, the only way he is traded at the deadline is if we are way out of the playoff chase.  That seems highly unlikely, so I'm thinking if he is here on opening day, he is with us until the end of the season.  

All this talk of trading him at the deadline seems weird.

[wibadgers23]

9 minutes ago, TURBO said:

If he is here on opening day, the only way he is traded at the deadline is if we are way out of the playoff chase.  That seems highly unlikely, so I'm thinking if he is here on opening day, he is with us until the end of the season.  

All this talk of trading him at the deadline seems weird.

This. If we are even remotely in the playoff hunt which is extremely likely, then Burnes is going nowhere at the deadline. They’re not going to pull another Hader trade.

[LouisEly]

On 1/8/2024 at 9:33 PM, nate82 said:

One has already bowed out in the Braves for Cease and Burnes and went with Sale.

What makes you believe that acquiring Sale - who hasn't pitched more than 103 innings in a season since 2019 and more than 160 innings in a season since 2017 - makes them bow out of acquiring Cease or Burnes?

Add to Sale's injury history the fact that Smith-Shawver hasn't pitched 100 innings in a pro season yet, and the Braves still haven't acquired anyone who can reliably get them through October.  Their problem isn't getting to October - it's getting through October.

[nate82]

3 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

What makes you believe that acquiring Sale - who hasn't pitched more than 103 innings in a season since 2019 and more than 160 innings in a season since 2017 - makes them bow out of acquiring Cease or Burnes?

Their lack of prospect capital.  

[Lloyd330]

4 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

What makes you believe that acquiring Sale - who hasn't pitched more than 103 innings in a season since 2019 and more than 160 innings in a season since 2017 - makes them bow out of acquiring Cease or Burnes?

Add to Sale's injury history the fact that Smith-Shawver hasn't pitched 100 innings in a pro season yet, and the Braves still haven't acquired anyone who can reliably get them through October.  Their problem isn't getting to October - it's getting through October.

Didn't the Braves win it two years ago?

[nate82]

Bowden said this about a Red Sox trade for Burnes.  “They touched base with the Brewers on Corbin Burnes and that went nowhere”.

https://theathletic.com/5192108/2024/01/10/mlb-offseason-trades-free-agents-teams/?source=user_shared_article

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 1/5/2024 at 8:59 AM, vandy54 said:

It's interesting that so many teams are in the mix for Cease (Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, Cardinals, Red Sox), yet there doesn't seem to be much news about Burnes. You would think those same teams would be trying to get Burnes, especially once Cease is dealt... unless every team thinks the Brewers are asking for too much for a 1 year rental. It also could just be the case that most news about the Brewers only comes out after a transaction has been finalized (or very close to completed), so we just aren't hearing what teams are in the mix. Still it's interesting that so many teams are still targeting top SPs... gives me hope that the Brewers can still deal Burnes for a good haul.

The White Sox lost 101 games last season in an awful division, and they are into a rebuild stage for their organization.  Cease still has 2 seasons left before free agency, and despite a pretty meh 2023 season that amount of team control and his raw stuff make him an attractive trade target, and one of the few players on the current White Sox roster that would net a good package of prospects in a trade.  

The Brewers won their division last season and are still the likely favorite to win the division again should they opt to not trade Burnes, who also has just 1 season left of team control before he and agent Scott Boras go hunting for the largest contract offer next winter.

I think the closer comparison to Burnes' trade rumors would be Shane Bieber since they're at the same stage in salary arbitration with just 1 year left and similar team postseason aspirations for 2024 - Cease will get traded because the team he's on is rebuilding and the risk of him having another down season or getting injured is too great for the White Sox to not get a quality return back when their MLB club won't be in contention for that season with our without Cease on their roster.

[nate82]

We can cross off Busch as a possible prospect in a return for Burnes.  He was just traded to the Cubs:

 

[Lloyd330]

29 minutes ago, nate82 said:

We can cross off Busch as a possible prospect in a return for Burnes.  He was just traded to the Cubs:

 

clearing space on the 40 man roster?

 

[Matt Breen]

Dodgers return on Busch seems pretty light. Nothing wrong with the players they got - just really, really young guys - I think both teens. Interesting deal. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, reillymcshane said:

Dodgers return on Busch seems pretty light. Nothing wrong with the players they got - just really, really young guys - I think both teens. Interesting deal. 

I wonder if they thought last year’s debut performance was a sign of things to come.

[brewcrewdue80]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

We can cross off Busch as a possible prospect in a return for Burnes.  He was just traded to the Cubs:

 

And then we can add Jackson Ferris with whoops wrong team(insert a Dodger SP) to the Burnes return. Ferris is #5 on mlb Dodgers list. Certainly better upside when taking back a return.

[IntentionalHBP1]

Orioles were rumored to be in on Stroman. They keep losing out on different options. 

[TURBO]

3 hours ago, IntentionalHBP1 said:

Orioles were rumored to be in on Stroman. They keep losing out on different options. 

They are cheap, and they are prospect huggers.

Pretty hard to get any players when you employ those two strategies...

[Madhawk23]

26 minutes ago, TURBO said:

They are cheap, and they are prospect huggers.

Pretty hard to get any players when you employ those two strategies...

Please get desperate now O's.....and divert yourself from your normal strategies!