Prospect Showdown, Shortstop of the Future Edition: Cooper Pratt vs. Juan Báez

[Harold Hutchison]

The Brewers have a good amount of organizational depth behind Willy Adames at shortstop, but two prospects are contending to claim the position for the long term in Milwaukee.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Both Cooper Pratt and Juan Báez were in their age-18 seasons in 2023. Pratt turned 19 in August, while Báez hit 18 in June. Both performed well in the Maryvale squad’s championship run, and both saw action at multiple infield positions for the Arizona Complex League Brewers. Each has a strong claim to be a blue-chip prospect for the Crew, at a highly valuable position. Let’s look at the case each of them can make.

The Case For Juan Báez
Baez’s case is simple: He was, arguably, the MVP of the 2023 ACL Brewers, posting a .952 OPS with 24 extra-base hits in 192 at-bats, then added three more doubles in a short stint at full-season Low A in Zebulon, N.C. Add in 19 stolen bases in 21 attempts, and you have what looks like a dynamic offensive package from a bargain signing ($10,000, per MLB Pipeline).

Baez only walked 10 times in 2023, but that figure isn’t a red flag when you consider that he struck out at only a 12.2% rate, and that includes his late-season cup of coffee with the Mudcats. To put that into perspective, Jackson Chourio posted a 12.9% strikeout rate in the second half of 2023. In other words, Baez’s ability to hit for contact is impressive, even if it's less advanced that Chourio's. Pipeline also noted that Báez made adjustments from a solid 2022 season in the DSL. He began spraying the ball to all fields, as opposed to being a mere pull hitter.

Báez has been dinged over defensive struggles at shortstop and third base, where he made 18 errors over 46 games. Scouting reports say that the issues on defense are “fixable,” though, and if so, then he could be a threat to post double figures in doubles, triples, homers, and steals at shortstop, provided the power continues to develop. 

In the (relative) worst case, Báez becomes a bat-first option at shortstop. If that is the situation, it’s still not a bad outcome. When an OPS is in the .900s, then sub-.900 fielding percentages are a lot easier to live with.

The Case For Cooper Pratt
The Brewers drafted Pratt (previously rated as a top-100 pick by FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline, and Baseball America, in the sixth round of the 2023 draft. They managed to sign him for a $1.3-million bonus, wooing him away from a commitment to Ole Miss. Like Báez, Pratt is a high-contact bat, with his Brewer Fanatic Top 20 listing noting his miss rate was 12%.

In 12 games with the ACL Brewers, he posted a .356/.426/.444 line, with five walks and 11 strikeouts in 45 at-bats. Pratt also added four stolen bases, showing in-game speed and smart baserunning. More notably, Pratt’s defense in nine games at shortstop was error-free. He also saw time at second base, where he had one miscue, but scouts report his defense is very good at the position, and that he could also handle third base if necessary.

Pratt’s current statistical profile looks a lot like that of Wade Boggs in the 1990s: a solid performer who hit for a .300 average and got on base to the tune of a 112+ OPS. In addition, the 1990s version of Boggs delivered very good defense (Boggs won a pair of Gold Gloves during that timeframe). Of course, the difference between an established Hall of Famer in the second half of their big-league career and a teenager just entering pro ball is the difference between a horse and a seahorse. Still, that is an excellent plausible outcome for a sixth-round pick--the same place where the Brewers have found Scott Karl, Bill Travers, Bill Hall, Randy Ready, and Drew Rasmussen (who was the key piece in the Willy Adames trade) over the years.

That said, Pratt could be much better. He’s been compared to Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson on both the Pipeline and Brewer Fanatic lists, and Henderson developed significant power after his time in Rookie ball. Obviously, the stats look different, but Henderson played in the Gulf Coast League, as opposed to the more hitter-friendly Arizona Complex League.

The real questions are whether Pratt can develop the power from a frame (6’4”, 195 pounds) that should deliver more in that department, and if he can adjust to professional pitching and reduce his strikeouts. If one happens, the Crew gets a solid player. If both happen, Pratt’s ceiling could be very high, indeed--no matter what position he plays.

Breakdown
In one sense, the Brewers are in a no-lose situation in this head-to-head competition. As it stands, if either player develops as well as fans hope, the Crew ends up with a very good shortstop.

Which of these prospects impresses you more? What kind of future do you envision for each?

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[CheezWizHed]

When an OPS is in the .900s, then sub-.900 fielding percentages are a lot easier to live with.

No.  A sub-.900 fielding rate is not acceptable anywhere on the field.  Typical SS fielding rates are .950+ at the MLB level.  No matter how much you think a 900 OPS bat overcomes defensive liabilities... no one in the MLB agrees with you.  Thus, if Baez can't improve his fielding, he will not be a SS. 

[biedergb]

I thought Baez as a SS was already over - didn't he play 3B and 2B toward the end of the season?

Also - did I imagine it, or was there some discussion of moving him to OF? (Maybe do to glut of middle IF?)

either way, his bat will carry him, and if he continues to hit as he moves up the minors, he will find a position.

 

Pratt - way too early to tell, but his draft comparison was Gunnar Henderson IIRC, and that portends to a favorable chance of being a SS long term. But he could also move later, but it will be 2-3 years to sort out. 

 

Good problems to have - having multiple players are multiple positions who carry a prospect title, with some reasonable chance of being a MLB player. Very deep prospect pool right now, as well as the high end talent.  Probably need to find another pitcher or 2, and another SS and another impact bat in the minors (via trade, 2024 draft) to keep this as a top 10 organization for prospects over the next year given the likely graduation of Chourio, Quero, Black and Gasser in 2024.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

Didn’t read the article, but we’ve discussed multiple times on this site already that Baez isn’t a shortstop going forward.  Yes, he’ll still see some time there on occasion, but the combination of him simply being better suited elsewhere and other, more defensively advanced options in the system have pushed him out of that position.

[Trax]

I like our young guns.

We need to get treasure for Adames and Burnes rather than letting them walk for a comp pick.  Whether it's now or later will depend on return...

[nate82]

Baez is definitely destined to be playing somewhere other than SS.  Pratt may also be destined to be playing somewhere other than SS but I have more confidence in Pratt sticking at SS than Baez. 

Defense does matter especially at SS.  Every MLB team is going to want someone who can field there and not be a butcher.  A positive for both Pratt and Baez is that their bat will basically play at any position.  Finding a home defensively where they are comfortable is far more important than an OPS at a certain position.  You can't just look at a players bat and say they are the best at that position.  It just doesn't work that way. 

Baez looks like he is destined to be a corner OF if he can't clean up his defense.  At 5'9" he is also limited to where he can play so 1B is probably not going to be an option.  He may also be topped out in terms of power production already while Pratt has more room to grow. 

[Joseph Zarr]

Tell me you've never seen Juan Baez play without telling me you've never seen Juan Baez play.

Good grief. Never ever ceases to amaze.

[sveumrules]

Eric Brown Junior.

 

[Joseph Zarr]

33 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Eric Brown Junior.

 

EBJ
Ethan Murray
Freddy Zamora
Jadher Areinamo
Daniel Guilarte
Gregory Barrios
Eduardo Garcia

Each and every one of these young men, defensively speaking, is and would be prioritized at SS over Baez. Each of these young men played SS over Baez in 2023. Guilarte, Areinamo, and Guilarte - specifically - all were played over Baez in his stint with Low-A. He was essentially strictly a 3B in 2023 when called up to Carolina and he was overtly prioritized at the hot corner over Luke Adams - that showcased and said all I needed to know. 

DSL side, Ereu; Alastre; Gutierrez; Di Turi; and Flores are likely names we should be keeping an eye on in 2024 at the SS position.

When a young man is given 180.0 innings at the SS position in the ACL and fields to an 0.830 FP% and then is given zero innings at SS at Low-A (52 innings at hot corner; 1 fill-in game at 2B) during the Carolina playoff push and brief post-season while showing clear improvement at 3B...a pattern is emerging.

 

[RedStickBrew]

I would like to see Zamora get pushed to AAA to start the year and see if he can figure out his defensive yips. I believe he still has the talent to be a MLB player.  

[Joseph Zarr]

46 minutes ago, RedStickBrew said:

I would like to see Zamora get pushed to AAA to start the year and see if he can figure out his defensive yips. I believe he still has the talent to be a MLB player.  

He was much better in 2023 than 2022 pre-injury. He played his best defense of the calendar year (2023) when his team needed him most for the playoff push. I came away quite a bit more convinced he was ready to take another step. Essentially, he gave us an error of some sort once every 5th game on Double-A infields. Given the fantastic defensiive output I saw over the last month and a half, I'll take that and run to the optimism bank. I think there's room for growth, for sure, but I moved my baseline heading into 2024.

[Playing Catch]

17 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

EBJ
Ethan Murray
Freddy Zamora
Jadher Areinamo
Daniel Guilarte
Gregory Barrios
Eduardo Garcia

Do any of them look to be top-half of MLB defenders at short?

If not, I worry none of them will have the stick necessary to make up for it, save for perhaps EBJ, and opinions on him are so disparate.

[Joseph Zarr]

4 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Do any of them look to be top-half of MLB defenders at short?

If not, I worry none of them will have the stick necessary to make up for it, save for perhaps EBJ, and opinions on him are so disparate.

Absolutely. It's important to remember the difference of transitioning from Minor League infields to Major League infields. There is a huge difference in quality of playing surfaces. Monasterio reminded us of this most recently. If a player has the athleticism and enough tools, more than likely he'll have a serious likelihood to be more than serviceable. As a habitual viewer of these Minor League games, I look for movement; form; tendencies; arm; reads etc. Botched grounders? I may care 'in-game' or the immediate aftermath, but overall I don't really care as it pertains to a player's overall skillset(s). I just can't vouch for the playing surface(s) and time and again we see this matters.

I personally have zero 'concerns' or qualms today about a top three of EBJ, Murray, and Zamora. That is an extremely talented and toolsy group of young middle infielders. Areinamo might be my favorite defender in the group. He does so many ridiculously heady and skillful things in a game-by-game basis. A true artist with the glove. Will his bat continue to ascend as it has in Low-A? Guilarte is absurdly smooth and is an OB machine but, early in his career, he's had prolonged injury episodes.

As far as the bat is concerned, of the names listed above, I personally have the most question marks (bat related) with Barrios and Garcia. Garcia being the more range-y and toolsy SS but a player who consistently demonstrates he struggles to identify pitches let alone know what 'his pitch' is AB to AB. It's unfortunate - Garcia is a very very good defender.