Giants May Be Interested In Willy Adames

[wildcat2237]

Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests the Giants are looking for a shortstop and Adames could be a possibility. The Giants famously missed out on (passed on?) Carlos Correa last offseason and still haven't found a permanent solution at short. Adames is a free agent after the 2024 season but has mentioned he is amenable to an extension before he reaches free agency.

Thoughts? 

View full rumor

[wildcat2237]

I should add that the article states that the author (Slusser) does not know if there have been any meaningful conversations between the Brewers and Giants. So this could be another talking head "spitballing" out loud.  Very similar to the recent, Jon Heyman, Yelich to the Blue Jays "rumor."

Nonetheless, something fun to talk about during the dog days of winter. 

[Scooterfletcher]

Id want Whisenhunt for Adames.   Add a prospect like Lara from us if need be.  

[Madhawk23]

If we held onto Adames, would he net us a Comp pick directly after the first round?  Part of my issue with trading Adames is that I don't know if he's going to bring us back enough in value by himself in a trade, that would make it worth giving up the comp pick after next season?  I almost feel like he might be more valuable in a trade package with Burnes, that might then up the package coming back in return from another team?  

[CheezWizHed]

9 hours ago, Madhawk23 said:

If we held onto Adames, would he net us a Comp pick directly after the first round?  Part of my issue with trading Adames is that I don't know if he's going to bring us back enough in value by himself in a trade, that would make it worth giving up the comp pick after next season?  I almost feel like he might be more valuable in a trade package with Burnes, that might then up the package coming back in return from another team?  

Adames would have a good enough season to have the Brewers give a QO and for Adames to turn it down.  I'd probably put it at 40% odds of that happening.  It's probably the same reason you think he won't bring that much back in a trade...

[Fear The Chorizo]

11 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Adames would have a good enough season to have the Brewers give a QO and for Adames to turn it down.  I'd probably put it at 40% odds of that happening.  It's probably the same reason you think he won't bring that much back in a trade...

I'm with you on the comp pick possibility being an afterthought with Adames - if he stays a Brewer in 2024 I'm pulling for him to have a career season that resembles what he did for most of 2021, so he would consider not signing a QO from the Brewers....but not expecting it. 

The Giants make quite a bit of sense as a trade partner and I think any whiff of desperation on their end needing a SS may prompt them to offer up more than they should for Adames via trade.

[CheeseheadInQC]

11 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Adames would have a good enough season to have the Brewers give a QO and for Adames to turn it down.  I'd probably put it at 40% odds of that happening.  It's probably the same reason you think he won't bring that much back in a trade...

Unless Adames’ offense regresses further, I think he gets the QO and turns it down. 3-4 WAR shortstops his age get paid, and I don’t know how many other legit options will be available next year.

[Lloyd330]

Seems fair

[CheezWizHed]

41 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Unless Adames’ offense regresses further, I think he gets the QO and turns it down. 3-4 WAR shortstops his age get paid, and I don’t know how many other legit options will be available next year.

I'm probably low in my estimate, but the Brewers have an odd aversion to QOs for whatever reason...

This trade seems lopsided in our favor... but the numbers favor the Giants.  Bart becomes our backup C with upside (and seemingly blocked with the Giants). And Wily brings back two good pitching prospects... 

 

[SRB]

Joey Bart would be an interesting pick-up since we need a second catcher anyway and if he finally starts living up to his potential we'd have plenty of AB between C/DH for both Contreras and Bart. Not sure I'd want him to be the centerpiece though.

[CheezWizHed]

10 minutes ago, SRB said:

Joey Bart would be an interesting pick-up since we need a second catcher anyway and if he finally starts living up to his potential we'd have plenty of AB between C/DH for both Contreras and Bart. Not sure I'd want him to be the centerpiece though.

Just because I listed him first doesn't make him the centerpiece. Both the minor league pitchers included have much more trade value.  Wisenhunt is probably the headliner there.

You could just do Wily for the two pitchers per the value listed.  But I figured grabbing Bart for Hedbert was an interesting "tack-on".

[TURBO]

No more need for Bart with our signing of Haase.

[Playing Catch]

16 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

but the Brewers have an odd aversion to QOs for whatever reason

I wonder if the logic is that another team's prospect is more of a known quantity (quality?) than a comp pick.

[brewcrewdue80]

2 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I wonder if the logic is that another team's prospect is more of a known quantity (quality?) than a comp pick.

I posted earlier some of what 30-34? Picks reached 10 career WAR vs what amount of projected 4th rd picks a Dodgers comp would provide 132-137.  Most were 0. I think 32 had 3 in 20 seasons. 134 also had 3 I think. At least 1 4th rd of those spots did.

That's not to say, these days the picks come with slot value and manipulation.  Draft a col senior that belongs after the 10th rd. Adds to the 0pct.  It is filled with futility. Negative to +5WAR careers. Rare above 5 dating back to 2004.

Getting an A+ to higher prospect back in trade ought to be like 1.4 seasons preview of a more mature/seen and team scouted player that your "drafting".  Some trades bring back more than 1 of these. Certainly a safer bet you find a positive WAR player through trade.

[CheezWizHed]

8 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I wonder if the logic is that another team's prospect is more of a known quantity (quality?) than a comp pick.

Exactly what @brewcrewdue80 said.  You get a "test drive" of a draft pick.  Many draft picks will "fail" right out of the gates.  So while you don't get a sure thing, you get a better shot at a MLB contributor.

[Playing Catch]

Yep. It's the same reason why teams, like the Brewers, tend to prefer college players. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

Counterpoint: The additional bonus pool money allows for greater creativity in getting the draft class you want whereas in a trade you are limited by both which players are in the organization you are dealing with and who they are willing to include. Taking the pick is higher risk, but there are also advantages that should not be overlooked if the offers aren’t inspiring.

[JohnBriggs12]

Giants need a SS and Brewers need bats at corner infield spots.  How about Adames for Wilmer Flores(yes that Wilmer Flores)?  Flores has a modest deal that will pay him $6.5 million this year with an $8.5 million team option for 2025.  He was a 2.6 WAR player in 2023, and his power has been trending upward with 23 dingers in a tough place to hit HR as a RH bat.  He's more a 1B option at this point but can slide over to 3rd occasionally.

[Outlander]

That would appear to be a lateral move, doesn't really improve the current team and get no potential players to help the team in the future. If it is a move to help the current team not real interested in filling the 1B hole to create an even larger hole at SS.

[monty57]

On 12/19/2023 at 1:05 PM, wildcat2237 said:

Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests the Giants are looking for a shortstop and Adames could be a possibility. The Giants famously missed out on (passed on?) Carlos Correa last offseason and still haven't found a permanent solution at short. Adames is a free agent after the 2024 season but has mentioned he is amenable to an extension before he reaches free agency.

Thoughts? 

 

View full rumor

 

The bolded portion is a good point. Adames may want an extension, and the Giants have the money to make that happen. That could add to his trade value, as they aren't looking at it as a one-year rental, they're a team that has been repeatedly rebuffed by top free agents that could see this as a way of getting a good SS locked up for the future.

As others have mentioned, Wisenhunt seems to be the most realistic target, but what would an Adames sign-and-extension do for Marco Luciano? Would he just slide to 2B, or would he be blocked. I doubt Adames gets Luciano on his own, but if they could get him in a package deal, Luciano and Turang could be the middle of our infield for a long time. 

It's probably not realistic without adding another significant piece, but it would be a long-term replacement who would fill the hole created by trading Adames. And, if the Giants are really high on Luciano, why are they interested in Adames unless they don't think Luciano is ready and are just looking for a one-year stopgap?

I'm certainly not opposed to trading one year of Adames for the upside of a package built around Wisenhunt. However, I've been in the camp that thinks we're still trying to contend in 2024. Trading away Adames would leave a big hole in the middle of the infield. Turang would probably move to SS, and Black can fill 2B or 3B, but not both. An Adames-for-Wisenhunt trade would free up a decent chunk of cash, but all-in-all, it would look to me like a "we're looking to 2025 and beyond" move.

[monty57]

How crazy would it be to see a trade based on Burnes & Adames for Luciano & Harrison? Trade our present for the Giants' future. I don't think it's realistic, but I could get behind some kind of mega-deal like this.

The Giants would take a big step towards being competitive in their division this year, while we'd add MLB.com's top 20 & 26 prospects who are both MLB-ready.

[wibadgers23]

I understand Luciano is ranked # 26 by MLB pipeline but just looking at his minor league stats over the course of his career, I just don’t see a top 50 prospect there. What am I missing with him? 2022 was nothing special and 2023 was even less spectacular. Maybe he battled injuries last year?

[MNBrew]

This is a general comment and not specific to the question of the Giants as a trade partner:

I wonder just what kind of numbers Adames (or his agent) have in mind.  I also wonder, since some of his numbers aren't consistently stellar, if he's more of a candidate to stick in MIL long-term than Burnes and/or eventually Williams.

If we have to do the Rays thing and trade him, I get it.  I don't know diddly about most teams' prospect pools, but at that point, it comes down to whatever the best deal you can make.

[CheeseheadInQC]

If the Dodgers were to offer something like River Ryan and Joendry Vargas, how would potential Giants packages stack up? Would Whisenhunt and Birdsong or Arias beat it?

[monty57]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

I understand Luciano is ranked # 26 by MLB pipeline but just looking at his minor league stats over the course of his career, I just don’t see a top 50 prospect there. What am I missing with him? 2022 was nothing special and 2023 was even less spectacular. Maybe he battled injuries last year?

Here's their write-up (looks like they don't think he'll stick at SS):

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 65 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55 

The top middle infielder available in the 2018 international class, Luciano has demonstrated electric power since signing for $2.6 million out of the Dominican Republic. Perennially one of the youngest players in his leagues, Luciano has looked raw at times against older pitching but the only thing that really has slowed him was a back injury that limited him to 57 full-season games in 2022. He still posted a .798 OPS with 10 homers as a 20-year-old in High-A. 

Luciano's most notable asset is his lightning-fast bat speed from the right side of the plate, which produces plus-plus raw power to all fields. While he looks to do damage and can get overly aggressive, he does use the entire field and will accept walks when pitchers decline to challenge him. He'll always be a power-over-hit guy but his natural ability and aptitude for making adjustments could mean that he's a .270 hitter with 35 homers per season. 

Though Luciano has a strong arm and a high baseball IQ, most scouts outside the organization believe he'll have to move off shortstop. He has fringy speed and range that are better suited for third base or right field, where he could be a solid defender. His offensive game will profile at any position.