Divisional Round: Packers @ 49ers - Saturday, Jan 20th 7:15pm (Fox)

[LouisEly]

9 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

If he makes the FG it changes that last drive entirely. We're playing for a FG attempt being WORST case scenario in that case and aren't in desperation mode as much. Good chance Love never even makes that throw, good chance we run the ball more with multiple timeouts. 

For sure there's a lot of plays that could have still turned the game in our favor, but it's tough defending Anders. 

They already were playing for a FG.  And Love shouldn't have made the throw anyway.

They had three red zone possessions in the first half and came away with six points.  If you want to exclude the final drive, fine, they still had a bad throw for one turnover and dropped two INTs that should have been takeaways.  Never should have come down to that kick to begin with.

[HarryDoyle]

56 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

The black lining in this little mini run we made was that it looks like MLF is going to use it to justify extending Joe Barry, which is sickening. So get ready for another talented defense which is also ranked 20 something in most defensive categories.

Same. There's no doubt in my mind that Barry will revert back to his old ways if he is retained and it wastes another year of Super Bowl aspirations. It was right after the near miss in Carolina that MLF said he'd get more involved with the defense, and they played much better the rest of the way. I don't see that continuing to start next season. A leopard doesn't change its spots.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

48 minutes ago, homer said:

I don't think things that happened 13 years ago under the last coach are applicable to the current coach 

While you are absolutely correct, it is hard to mentally separate the two as a fan. Random teams seem to plop into the Super Bowl routinely. The Packers meanwhile, are always good enough to do that, they just never do it. 

[Sixtolezcano]

1 minute ago, LouisEly said:

They already were playing for a FG.  And Love shouldn't have made the throw anyway.

They had three red zone possessions in the first half and came away with six points.  If you want to exclude the final drive, fine, they still had a bad throw for one turnover and dropped two INTs that should have been takeaways.  Never should have come down to that kick to begin with.

You can always pick out any number of failures that lead to a loss, and this had many. But replacing a bad kicker is the easiest correctable one. I could see he was a major problem this season, way back in the preseason.

Don’t forget MLF passing on kicking a FG at the 14 yard line in the first quarter, especially when you’re a 10 point underdog on the road. But Carlson would have probably missed that one, too.

[HarryDoyle]

4 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

They already were playing for a FG.  And Love shouldn't have made the throw anyway.

They had three red zone possessions in the first half and came away with six points.  If you want to exclude the final drive, fine, they still had a bad throw for one turnover and dropped two INTs that should have been takeaways.  Never should have come down to that kick to begin with.

Nobody is arguing that Carlson is the sole reason we lost. There were plenty of points left on the field for sure. But it has been the constant, glaring weakness for pretty much the entire season and that will draw the most attention. 

[homer]

8 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

You can always pick out any number of failures that lead to a loss, and this had many. But replacing a bad kicker is the easiest correctable one. I could see he was a major problem this season, way back in the preseason.

Don’t forget MLF passing on kicking a FG at the 14 yard line in the first quarter, especially when you’re a 10 point underdog on the road. But Carlson would have probably missed that one, too.

I think he went for it because they were 10 point dogs not because they didn't trust their kicker.

[HarryDoyle]

10 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

You can always pick out any number of failures that lead to a loss, and this had many. But replacing a bad kicker is the easiest correctable one. I could see he was a major problem this season, way back in the preseason.

Don’t forget MLF passing on kicking a FG at the 14 yard line in the first quarter, especially when you’re a 10 point underdog on the road. But Carlson would have probably missed that one, too.

I didn't have a problem with going for it in that situation. I wouldn't have had a problem either way they chose, really. Actually, being a 10 point underdog on the road is exactly why you go for it, and in my opinion they did pick up the first down but we got screwed by a bad spot from the refs. I remember people complaining about McCarthy kicking field goals in Seattle in those same situations, something I agreed with by the way because against that Legion of Boom defense you take the points when twice they failed to score on goal to go situations. They were not going to punch it in on fourth down if they couldn't do it for three consecutive plays prior. That's not where that game was lost. It was what seemed a plethora of events that happened the last five minutes of regulation where if even one of those things go right for us, we win the game.

[Sixtolezcano]

26 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

I didn't have a problem with going for it in that situation. I wouldn't have had a problem either way they chose, really. Actually, being a 10 point underdog on the road is exactly why you go for it, and in my opinion they did pick up the first down but we got screwed by a bad spot from the refs. I remember people complaining about McCarthy kicking field goals in Seattle in those same situations, something I agreed with by the way because against that Legion of Boom defense you take the points when twice they failed to score on goal to go situations. They were not going to punch it in on fourth down if they couldn't do it for three consecutive plays prior. That's not where that game was lost. It was what seemed a plethora of events that happened the last five minutes of regulation where if even one of those things go right for us, we win the game.

I guess I’m more conservative than most. Put as many sure (?) points on the board as you possibly can. LouisEly listed a plethora of things that could have changed the outcome of the game. I was just adding another possible one. What my main point was that when MLF and/or Gutey identify a problem area they tend to ignore it or at least let it fester for a while before correction ( I.e; ST coordinator, kicker, etc.). There should be some intervention in the team system to prevent this. Carlson had shown he wasn’t a reliable kicker way back in August. There was no reason he should have been kicking in a January playoff game.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Carlson still on the roster is more of a product that he was actually one of the bright spots for this team into late October, when nobody saw this team being capable of making the playoffs, let alone being better than the 49ers on their field in the divisional round.  He really did struggle down the stretch, so it is a red flag for 2024.

I'd expect there will be a kicking competition next training camp - and if not Carlson will have a short leash into the season.  With increased expectations that come with this late season surge.

Their youth really showed up in spots last night, Tom leaving the game changed the amount of time Love had to throw downfield and limited the number of receivers out in routes, and the Packers couldn't come up with enough plays at key moments to put the game away against a team that by all accounts was built to win this year.  I remember Rodgers' last game against this team in the playoffs at Lambeau, where the Packer offense couldn't do anything and he threw a pick late over the middle at winning time, too.

I'm chapped they didn't win a game they should have and kept an improbable 7 seed playoff run going, but I think the reasons why they lost last night are much more to do with inexperience in those pressure spots more than other recent playoff disappointments with veteran rosters, and hopefully they are better for it in the long run.

[tmwiese55]

Ran through this quick a bit.  For the most part everyone is spot on.  But for all the Love sucked and so did Purdy. Sure, but guys it was a full on rainstorm the whole game. Cut some slack.  Its rather impressive these days that in spite of that going on teams are still able to come out and throw the ball, say 25 years ago they didn't do that. but you have to accept that accuracy is gonna be a bit off.    That said, Loves last throw was a terrible decision, nothing to do with rain. Just no need to force it like that yet. Throw that away and you still have a very good shot at a FG.

Other than that I thought he was 'fine' given the conditions.  Two 3rd downs in the 2H were smaller overlooked ones you can probably chalk up to the rain, first the interception was just a bit off which happens with rain. Frustrating because good chance they get the first if he makes the throw.  And I think the next possession he had a dump off to Jones on 3rd that he was off on that would've been an easy 1st. Short throws so if you wanna be considered 'the man' you still have to make them but the ball slipping a bit in the rain happens. Either of those plays goes different, changes the course of the game big time.

Also, I know its a GB board and its biased. But I don't get the hate on Purdy. Should be a guy to root for, other than being on a rival.  And this constant talk like he actually sucks seems off. Keep saying he sucks and will show it, eventually he will have a bad game and you can say "told ya", you know while ignoring you've been wrong for like 20 weeks before it. At some point you just have to accept the guy is good. Is he gonna be Rodgers/Mahomes level? No but physically neither was Brady and we saw what he did. And you can't do what he's done for 1.5 seasons and not be good. He's calm, can make all the throws, very smart knows exactly where to go with the balls, has enough mobility. It will for sure be harder for them if you have to pay him 40 mil but there's nothing wrong with being a top 10ish qb instead of top 3. The guy doesn't suck.  Maybe he'll be a bit savvy and take less money to keep a good team around him, we'll see.

[OldHeidelberg]

Of course I had decided when we went up 21-14 that house money was over and I now had SB aspirations for this team. Then they tore my heart out, again. 😡

[homer]

This is how I feel:

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

7 minutes ago, homer said:

This is how I feel:

 

From a playoff loss perspective, it's pretty comparable - but I'd argue that 1995 Packer team was pretty loaded with veterans amd that era of the nfl still had the "wait your turn" sort of pecking order for contending teams.  To me this run feels more like what the Packers were doing at the end of the regular season with a bunch of kids and an aging Favre before the year they blew the NFCCG at home against the giants.  The difference is they've already got the young qb in place to grow with the young core and they wound up doing some damage in the playoffs.

 

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, Sixtolezcano said:

But replacing a bad kicker is the easiest correctable one.

During the offseason, yes.  But not during the season - the good kickers are going to be employed. 

If you want to say Crosby, they would have had to sacrifice kickoffs.  The Packers were 14th in the league in average kickoff yardage and 9th in the league in average starting field position against (not sure if that's just kickoffs).  And Crosby was 0-1 from 40-49 with the Giants, 1-2 from 50+; no guarantee he makes it.  Plus, what roster spot do you give up and what player do you release to make room for him if you keep Carlson for kickoffs?   The Packers had a lot of injuries later in the season; rarely did they have healthy scratches other than Cox.

[LouisEly]

21 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Also, I know its a GB board and its biased. But I don't get the hate on Purdy. Should be a guy to root for, other than being on a rival.  And this constant talk like he actually sucks seems off. Keep saying he sucks and will show it, eventually he will have a bad game and you can say "told ya", you know while ignoring you've been wrong for like 20 weeks before it.

Exactly.  Purdy led the league in QBR this season.  He looked bad at times because - gasp - the Packers are good enough to make him look bad at times.  Especially in the rain.

[Fear The Chorizo]

21 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Ran through this quick a bit.  For the most part everyone is spot on.  But for all the Love sucked and so did Purdy. Sure, but guys it was a full on rainstorm the whole game. Cut some slack.  Its rather impressive these days that in spite of that going on teams are still able to come out and throw the ball, say 25 years ago they didn't do that. but you have to accept that accuracy is gonna be a bit off.    That said, Loves last throw was a terrible decision, nothing to do with rain. Just no need to force it like that yet. Throw that away and you still have a very good shot at a FG.

Other than that I thought he was 'fine' given the conditions.  Two 3rd downs in the 2H were smaller overlooked ones you can probably chalk up to the rain, first the interception was just a bit off which happens with rain. Frustrating because good chance they get the first if he makes the throw.  And I think the next possession he had a dump off to Jones on 3rd that he was off on that would've been an easy 1st. Short throws so if you wanna be considered 'the man' you still have to make them but the ball slipping a bit in the rain happens. Either of those plays goes different, changes the course of the game big time.

Also, I know its a GB board and its biased. But I don't get the hate on Purdy. Should be a guy to root for, other than being on a rival.  And this constant talk like he actually sucks seems off. Keep saying he sucks and will show it, eventually he will have a bad game and you can say "told ya", you know while ignoring you've been wrong for like 20 weeks before it. At some point you just have to accept the guy is good. Is he gonna be Rodgers/Mahomes level? No but physically neither was Brady and we saw what he did. And you can't do what he's done for 1.5 seasons and not be good. He's calm, can make all the throws, very smart knows exactly where to go with the balls, has enough mobility. It will for sure be harder for them if you have to pay him 40 mil but there's nothing wrong with being a top 10ish qb instead of top 3. The guy doesn't suck.  Maybe he'll be a bit savvy and take less money to keep a good team around him, we'll see.

Specific to Purdy, no he doesn't suck - but he also isn't the reason the 49ers win games or are prolific on offense. I think he is smart enough to realize that if he doesn't have veteran all pros at every skill position around him plus a few studs on the oline, he's not good enough to win 10+games a season.  If he ends up getting a huge contract extension the team he leads will quickly drop out of annually contending.

Purdy was worse than Love last night - the Packer defense just didn't make him pay for several bad decisions and throws he made.

[tmwiese55]

51 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Of course I had decided when we went up 21-14 that house money was over and I now had SB aspirations for this team. Then they tore my heart out, again. 😡

Especially with Det or TB  being such winnable games.  There isn't some juggernaut waiting for them like in most years.

[tmwiese55]

24 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Specific to Purdy, no he doesn't suck - but he also isn't the reason the 49ers win games or are prolific on offense. I think he is smart enough to realize that if he doesn't have veteran all pros at every skill position around him plus a few studs on the oline, he's not good enough to win 10+games a season.  If he ends up getting a huge contract extension the team he leads will quickly drop out of annually contending.

Purdy was worse than Love last night - the Packer defense just didn't make him pay for several bad decisions and throws he made.

Sure. But that's also what everyone said about Brady when he rode the great D to the first SB.    Other than being drafted in the 7th rd what about what he does and can do out there gets him this negative rap? Accuracy is top notch, arm is good enough but not great, brain/prep/IQ is elite, adequately mobile.    If he was drafted in 1st rd doing the exact same thing no one would be questioning it.   But yes like any of the not elite elite guys, once he gets a big contract it will make it much harder to win. Even truly elite guys like Rodgers it gets extremely difficult to win at that point, if you're in the tier below that like Purdy probably is it gets even harder.   Like I mentioned, I'm curious if he'll be savvy and take a say 25 mil deal instead of holding them to the coals for 50 mil. That was the smartest thing Brady ever did that made him the GOAT, but of course he had the quirk of having a wife with 500 mil.   IF Brady was taking Rodgers level money so they had to lose 2-3 other starters would they have gotten that many SBs, probably not. 

[HarryDoyle]

I wouldn't go as far as to say that Purdy sucks, but when he lost key players like CMC, Deebo and Trent Williams to injury mid season he went 0-3 and looked very pedestrian doing it. The fact he was in in the MVP conversation was laughable.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, tmwiese55 said:

Sure. But that's also what everyone said about Brady when he rode the great D to the first SB.    Other than being drafted in the 7th rd what about what he does and can do out there gets him this negative rap? Accuracy is top notch, arm is good enough but not great, brain/prep/IQ is elite, adequately mobile.    If he was drafted in 1st rd doing the exact same thing no one would be questioning it.   But yes like any of the not elite elite guys, once he gets a big contract it will make it much harder to win. Even truly elite guys like Rodgers it gets extremely difficult to win at that point, if you're in the tier below that like Purdy probably is it gets even harder.   Like I mentioned, I'm curious if he'll be savvy and take a say 25 mil deal instead of holding them to the coals for 50 mil. That was the smartest thing Brady ever did that made him the GOAT, but of course he had the quirk of having a wife with 500 mil.   IF Brady was taking Rodgers level money so they had to lose 2-3 other starters would they have gotten that many SBs, probably not. 

Purdy does not have close to the arm that Brady did, and his accuracy is questionable when he isn't throwing within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.  He is a great fit with what the 49ers have on their offensive roster, but then again most qbs who aren't super expensive would be.

To me it's not a negative rap on him specifically - I think it's more that qb is the glamour position that gets more of the credit than is deserved, particularly with the roster the 49ers have on both sides of the ball.  I think if contract value or cap situation wasnt an issue, you could put any other starting NFL quarterback on that team and they would be as good or better than they are now.  That's not a knock on Purdy as a player, it's just the reality of how loaded the 49ers are.

If the Packers caught just one of what was three or 4 interceptable passes Purdy threw last night, the football world would be talking about how the 49ers need to sort out how to upgrade at quarterback in order to get over the hump before salary cap and age decimates that roster.  Instead he's probably still viewed as a fringe mvp candidat along with McCaffrey and Lamar Jackson.

[Fear The Chorizo]

combing through the play by play, especially early, once the Packers got close to goal to go situations they got too conservative at times.  Specifically that 3rd and 1 followed by the 4th and short "stop" (I think they got jobbed on that spot, but you can't leave room for refs to screw you when you're the underdog) - If the Packers planned on going for it there, 3rd and 1 would've been a perfect time for a play action pass, and instead the playcall was a dive right into the heart of the defense that was selling out on the run.

The very next drive the march down the field and have 1st and goal from the 9, only to run for nothing, then pass to Jones to lose 2 yards, then another underneath incomplete pass to Kraft that had no chance of scoring.  Would've rather seen more aggressive playcalling with a pass on 1st down there.

The last 4 Packer possessions went INT (bad short crossing route behind Kraft), 3 and out (bad short throw over the middle to Jones), missed FG (short passes and stuffed run with no chance of moving the chains after Jones' big run), and INT....besides Jones big run, the Packers did nothing offensively to take the game away from the 49ers and it cost them.  None of those series included any pass plays beyond a few yards downfield, with the exception of that terrible decision by Love to throw against his body downfield to end the game instead of just throwing it away or running out of bounds for a minimal gain.  They got conservative once they went up 7 against a defense that was ratcheting up the pressure and it cost them, because in a way it got Love playing tentative, too.

[tmwiese55]

So having a few bad games is only a huge red flag if you're drafted in the 7th round. Mahomes has had those too.   Also, the team he took over last year was 7-4, they didn't lose another game until he got hurt.  Then this year leads them to 1 seed and NFC championship again while playing great. Its not as easy its being made out to be just because he was drafted in the 7th rd. And yea last night he was not great, but its a massive rainstorm. Man just wish they pick 6d that one right away, whole different game if so.               

Being very high IQ like he is doesn't get near as much credit or attention as the guy who throws the ball harder.   Its not a big deal or worth arguing, it's not like you who've commended specifically are overly bashing and my comment wasn't directed at anyone.  And its not like I'm saying he's elite elite where you can let everyone go around him and he's going to carry them like Rodgers/Mahomes level guys.    Just in general I saw a sentiment here and other spots almost rooting against the guy and so many comments on how he actually sucks, is a fraud etc. Granted its skewed by the biased GB fans who are so spoiled, but still.  At some point folks have to accepts this isn't a fluke. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

17 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

So having a few bad games is only a huge red flag if you're drafted in the 7th round. Mahomes has had those too.   Also, the team he took over last year was 7-4, they didn't lose another game until he got hurt.  Then this year leads them to 1 seed and NFC championship again while playing great. Its not as easy its being made out to be just because he was drafted in the 7th rd. And yea last night he was not great, but its a massive rainstorm. Man just wish they pick 6d that one right away, whole different game if so.               

Being very high IQ like he is doesn't get near as much credit or attention as the guy who throws the ball harder.   Its not a big deal or worth arguing, it's not like you who've commended specifically are overly bashing and my comment wasn't directed at anyone.  And its not like I'm saying he's elite elite where you can let everyone go around him and he's going to carry them like Rodgers/Mahomes level guys.    Just in general I saw a sentiment here and other spots almost rooting against the guy and so many comments on how he actually sucks, is a fraud etc. Granted its skewed by the biased GB fans who are so spoiled, but still.  At some point folks have to accepts this isn't a fluke. 

So what you're saying is quarterbacks with better arms and more natural talent can't also have a high IQ?  The 49ers did go on a good run in 2022 once Purdy became the starter, for sure, but they were a 7-4 squad with other quarterbacks before him, too and then added McCaffrey in that same timeframe. 

I think in general there are multiple ways in today's NFL to build a team capable of winning a Super Bowl any given year....but once your young quarterback is off his rookie deal regardless of where he is drafted, he better be a top 5-caliber quarterback capable of making everyone around him better instead of the other way around, or you're just not going to be good enough.  There's jealousy with the 49ers because they've had such a dominant core of talent besides quarterback that they drive fans for other teams crazy waiting for it to come crashing down after they've made some terrible decisions involving quarterbacks in free agency (Jimmy G) and the draft (Lance), then they seemingly luck into adding Purdy with a token draft pick that even they had destined for their practice squad last season and he turns out to be a competent player after their offense gets the other quarterbacks above him on the depth chart injured last season.  The flip side of that is the 49ers haven't yet won a Super Bowl since 1994 with Steve Young as their quarterback despite having rosters that appear on paper to be among the most talented overall squads in the league from 2011-2013, and from about 2019 to present.

 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Purdy is a very good game manager type. Nothing I saw last night changed my mind. He was Green Bay Santa Claus and we returned all the presents. 

He sucked worse than Love did. 

 

[Strike4]

15 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Youngest team since the NFL merger.

Zach Tom going down with injury was a killer. Not that Nijman was bad, but...Tom was the one guy who you could really count on to hold up vs Bosa/Young.

Was just going to say the same.  I don’t think Love trusted (with good reason) Nijman to hold up against Bosa. I saw somewhere that Wallace was out the last drive and Royce Newman was in for him - which really will make you jumpy