2024 Brewers Rotation

[brewcrewdue80]

I mentioned this in Burnes thread, but having a piggyback with Hall and Ashby flip flopping 2-4innings would be good use where you limit their innings. I thought Ross. But Ashby gives that game an electric feel.

[Jenkins5]

If Gasser doesn't make this rotation after them refusing to promote him last year, all my optimism may get thrown out window. You traded Hader for him. He has done everything you could possibly want him to in Minors. He has had a 11+k/9 to  3.4 bb/9, 20% k/bb%, 3.70 FIP, .220 opp ba. Get kid up and see what he has. 

Also....... Ashby, Hall, Gasser..... the new Lester, Hamel, Quintana? As a fellow lefty, my bias would love 3 lefties in rotation even if it is frowned upon in baseball lol

[Devinep]

I like that the Brewers pitching prospects are guys who could help provide depth this season in the rotation, but they do need another legit starter now. They have the money, especially now, to sign Mike Clevinger and that makes sense.
 

or maybe Edward Cabrera from Miami for Garrett Mitchell+

[Brewcrew82]

I think you're going to see a lot of shorter starts with this group and relying on the bullpen. So, basically a 2017-2019 redux.

Freddy will hopefully be good for 30 starts and 160-175 innings. He's your horse and you gotta cross your fingers that his new S&C program has resolved his shoulder issues. 

Miley you have to assume will end up on the IL at some point(s). If you can get north of 100 innings from him, you should be content.

Rea pitched 125 innings last year, so should be able to increase to 140-150. However, he went longer than 6 just once....

Ross has pitched 17 combined innings the last two years. While I think we're going to get decent rate stats from him, I doubt he'll be able to go more than 70-80 innings at most. 

Gasser has gone 135 innings the last two seasons. If he holds up well in the transition to the majors, you should be able to get him up to around 150 innings. He ran up some high pitch counts earlier in the season, but went 6 innings in 5 of his last 7 starts. Would be awesome if he's able to keep that up. 

DL Hall and Aaron Ashby are the two wild cards. Provided Ashby is healthy and his stuff his back, would be ideal to have them both start the season out of the bullpen providing multiple innings after Miley, Rea, and Ross. Goal would then to be to gradually increase their workload to where they're able to go 4/5 innings and transition to starting if necessary. Rays have utilized this strategy well, particularly with Rasmussen. 

In the minors you have McKendry and CRod. Presumably McKendry would be first up, with CRod maybe becoming an option starting in May/June. Both have been stretched out for 120 plus innings. 

Overall, I think we should be in decent shape even without an external addition, but it's going to have to be in a far more creative fashion than we've become accustomed to the past couple years and in line with what we saw from 2017-2019. Going to have to ride the bullpen quite a bit. Thankfully, we're returning everyone from what was the best bullpen in baseball last year. 

[TURBO]

All I am seeing with riding the bullpen as you describe, is a lot of gassed relievers by mid-season.  I don't think that can be sustained a full season.  We have to have another guy who can go 6 innings on the regular in that rotation.  Hell, it doesn't seem like Peralta even gets through 6 innings all that often, but I haven't looked it up.

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, TURBO said:

All I am seeing with riding the bullpen as you describe, is a lot of gassed relievers by mid-season.  I don't think that can be sustained a full season.  We have to have another guy who can go 6 innings on the regular in that rotation.  Hell, it doesn't seem like Peralta even gets through 6 innings all that often, but I haven't looked it up.

There's very few starters in baseball who actually go 6 innings on a regular basis anymore. Burnes was one of them, sure, but you can make up the difference with having more guys start. Why guys like Hall, Ashby, etc. being able to provide length out of the pen is important, like Hader was able to do from 2017-2019. We had pretty much this exact same situation then. 

FWIW, Freddy went at least 6 innings in 15 of his 30 starts last season. That's a solid rate nowadays. 

[Playing Catch]

As it is, the Brewers are needing a lot of things to go right if the rotation is going to be league average, and it's absolutely possible that things end up going really poorly. Even if everyone stays healthy, there's no sure things after Freddy. I mean, I guess I'd be surprised if a healthy Miley was really poor, but dude is 37. Rea was solid last season, but there's a good chance that will end up being his best MLB season, being he's 33.

If the Brewers don't improve the rotation through either trade or free agency, even if it's just to add another unproven prospect or aging vet, it will be hard for them to convince me that they are trying to win the division this season. I'm very very hopeful about Gasser and Rodriguez, but it's often true that good MLB pitchers struggle as rookies. It's important to give them innings this year to continue to develop, but that's different than expecting them to take the ball every fifth day.

[brewmann04]

Sorry think this rotation has a lot of holes and we going to be exposed 

[Jenkins5]

45 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

Sorry think this rotation has a lot of holes and we going to be exposed 

Has a lot of holes right now* Got to believe Arnold can see that & will add on some way. I agree with you if this is rotation he settles with. Too many question marks & risk currently. I like the potential of it with but more for 25’ benefits.
 

Hit up Dodgers who have like 5 or 6 24-25 year old pitchers who are considered MLB ready with big upside that are blocked. Sheehan, Stone, Rivers, Frasso, Knack, & think I’m missing one. 

[edfunderburk]

29 minutes ago, Jenkins5 said:

Has a lot of holes right now* Got to believe Arnold can see that & will add on some way. I agree with you if this is rotation he settles with. Too many question marks & risk currently. I like the potential of it with but more for 25’ benefits.
 

Hit up Dodgers who have like 5 or 6 24-25 year old pitchers who are considered MLB ready with big upside that are blocked. Sheehan, Stone, Rivers, Frasso, Knack, & think I’m missing one. 

I would love Sheehan & Frasso in return for Adames & Williams via trade. I could get excited about the 2024 Brewers after that exchange. 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I would love Sheehan & Frasso in return for Adames & Williams via trade. I could get excited about the 2024 Brewers after that exchange. 

I would not like Frasso as he just had surgery.

[edfunderburk]

20 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I would not like Frasso as he just had surgery.

My bad … in addition to Sheehan - Stone? Rivers? 

[CheeseheadInQC]

27 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

My bad … in addition to Sheehan - Stone? Rivers? 

I have said it before, and I am not sure why it strikes me this way, but River Ryan feels like someone the Brewers would target.

[brewmann04]

I kinda think Willy is going soon  but the Crew will hold onto Devin unless blow away by an offer

[Mr Southpaw]

There are a number of free agents still available.

[RobDeer 45]

What starters in our system are most likely to be part of the rotation at some point this year?  Who is our highest upside starter in the farm system?

[MVP2110]

14 minutes ago, RobDeer 45 said:

What starters in our system are most likely to be part of the rotation at some point this year?  Who is our highest upside starter in the farm system?

Misiorowski is likely the highest upside long term. For this year I think seeing starts from Hall, Gasser, & Ashby are likely and then it's also possible we see Rodriguez & Misiorowski get a couple as well depending on injury/ineffectiveness from others. The rotation this year is a big question mark but should genuinely be fun

[monty57]

20 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

As it is, the Brewers are needing a lot of things to go right if the rotation is going to be league average, and it's absolutely possible that things end up going really poorly. Even if everyone stays healthy, there's no sure things after Freddy. I mean, I guess I'd be surprised if a healthy Miley was really poor, but dude is 37. Rea was solid last season, but there's a good chance that will end up being his best MLB season, being he's 33.

If the Brewers don't improve the rotation through either trade or free agency, even if it's just to add another unproven prospect or aging vet, it will be hard for them to convince me that they are trying to win the division this season. I'm very very hopeful about Gasser and Rodriguez, but it's often true that good MLB pitchers struggle as rookies. It's important to give them innings this year to continue to develop, but that's different than expecting them to take the ball every fifth day.

Per Fangraphs / Steamer projections:

Peralta 168 IP, 3.68 ERA, 3.3 WAR
Miley 148 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.3 WAR
Rea 140 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.5 WAR
Ross 125 IP, 4.46 ERA, 1.1 WAR

Gasser 130 IP, 4.49 ERA. 1.0 WAR
Hall 123 IP, 3.59 ERA, 2.3 WAR
Ashby 97 IP, 3.49, 1.5 WAR

They have Hall about half reliever, half starter with 47 games, and only 16 starts, and Ashby with 54 games and only 10 starts.

I think they'll give Hall a shot in the rotation, but they have to be worried about innings limits. I think Steamer's projection of 123 is on the high end of where they'd go, as he hasn't pitched more than 76.2 innings (done in '22) since the pre-Covid days. They could start him in the rotation and then shut him down late in the season, or they could start him in the pen and move him into the rotation when they're sure he won't go over his limit.

Of course, there are a lot of guys with innings concerns: Ashby is coming off an injury and I don't think anyone knows when he'll be ready, Gasser is a rookie, Ross has been hurt for a couple of seasons and will need to build back up, Miley gets hurt multiple times every season. I've never been a big proponent of the six-man rotation, but this could very well be a year where we'll use it to keep everyone's innings down.

It will be interesting to see how the team addresses this, and it's understandable why so many people think they should go out and find a veteran starter from the free agent pool.

[Mr Southpaw]

The rotation is a huge question mark and another veteran option would be nice.  I would be happy with an inning eater like  Terehan as our number five starter.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

16 minutes ago, RobDeer 45 said:

What starters in our system are most likely to be part of the rotation at some point this year?  Who is our highest upside starter in the farm system?

LHP Robert Gasser is probably the best bet to hit the rotation first. RHP Jacob Misiorowski has what may be the best fastball on all of the minor leagues. Carlos Rodriguez looks close to being ready. Bradley Blalock may get a look. Coleman Crow. DL Hall is obviously going to be given every opportunity to make the rotation. Evan McEndry is a guy who might surprise too. 

[CheezWizHed]

39 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Per Fangraphs / Steamer projections:

Peralta 168 IP, 3.68 ERA, 3.3 WAR
Miley 148 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.3 WAR
Rea 140 IP, 4.52 ERA, 1.5 WAR
Ross 125 IP, 4.46 ERA, 1.1 WAR

Gasser 130 IP, 4.49 ERA. 1.0 WAR
Hall 123 IP, 3.59 ERA, 2.3 WAR
Ashby 97 IP, 3.49, 1.5 WAR

They have Hall about half reliever, half starter with 47 games, and only 16 starts, and Ashby with 54 games and only 10 starts.

I think they'll give Hall a shot in the rotation, but they have to be worried about innings limits. I think Steamer's projection of 123 is on the high end of where they'd go, as he hasn't pitched more than 76.2 innings (done in '22) since the pre-Covid days. They could start him in the rotation and then shut him down late in the season, or they could start him in the pen and move him into the rotation when they're sure he won't go over his limit.

Of course, there are a lot of guys with innings concerns: Ashby is coming off an injury and I don't think anyone knows when he'll be ready, Gasser is a rookie, Ross has been hurt for a couple of seasons and will need to build back up, Miley gets hurt multiple times every season. I've never been a big proponent of the six-man rotation, but this could very well be a year where we'll use it to keep everyone's innings down.

It will be interesting to see how the team addresses this, and it's understandable why so many people think they should go out and find a veteran starter from the free agent pool.

It almost seems like this is the year of all years to go with a 6 man rotation.  They have so many guys that will be on innings limits... Ashby, Gasser, Hall.  Plus Miley would benefit from a lower work load to keep him healthy.  

[RobDeer 45]

1 hour ago, MVP2110 said:

Misiorowski is likely the highest upside long term. For this year I think seeing starts from Hall, Gasser, & Ashby are likely and then it's also possible we see Rodriguez & Misiorowski get a couple as well depending on injury/ineffectiveness from others. The rotation this year is a big question mark but should genuinely be fun

I was just texting a buddy and said the same thing, this will be a fun year.  A young team is a ton of entertainment.  Lots of ups and downs but seeing the potential in these guys is a blast.  That's why I'm leaning more towards trading Willy and Devon and grabbing more pitching prospects.  Not to derail the thread!  My buddy brought up a good point though, keeping Willy to be a clubhouse guy to bridge the gap between managers, might be smart.  Either way I'm excited to see the youth play this year.  I too am in the camp of adding another starter and also going with a 6 man rotation.

[Playing Catch]

I agree with the 6 man rotation ideas. If they decide to have a few rookie starters on the roster at the same time, it's easy, too, to have them piggy-back/switch from SP to RP in order to both control for innings as well as control for poor performance.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

It almost seems like this is the year of all years to go with a 6 man rotation.  They have so many guys that will be on innings limits... Ashby, Gasser, Hall.  Plus Miley would benefit from a lower work load to keep him healthy.  

This is a great idea actually.

[Ignitor 4ever]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

It almost seems like this is the year of all years to go with a 6 man rotation.  They have so many guys that will be on innings limits... Ashby, Gasser, Hall.  Plus Miley would benefit from a lower work load to keep him healthy.  

I think this is a decent idea too.  The strength of our staff is the bullpen.  We are hoping to get 5-6 solid innings from our starters on any given day and then hoping our bullpen shortens the game.  A 6-man rotation probably plays to our greatest pitching strength.