2024 Brewers Rotation

[SF70]

6 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Man if he can stick as a starter we may have gotten ourselves 6 more seasons of ace pitching for 1 year of an ace. Plus an Adames replacement and a 1st round draft pick!

Early returns look promising.

The mechanical changes Hall made the second-half of last season alluded to by Arem & Jack seem to have unlocked a future rotation monster.

If true, Hall alone would make the Burnes trade a success. Getting a 3-5 WAR SS and 34th pick/pool money makes it a steal of a trade.

[monty57]

Maybe it's just my lack of faith in any kind of luck when it comes to Brewers and injuries, but I had just assumed that Ashby would start the year in extended spring training and get brought along slowly, being added to the team sometime mid-season as a long reliever.

Having him likely for the opening day rotation is huge for the Brewers. I'd say that Peralta, Miley, Ashby and Hall are going to be in the opening day rotation, with a righty like Ross or Junis filling out the rotation. There are still some questions, but there is a lot of talent in that group.

Add in the prospects (Gasser and Mis) sitting in AAA and probably making the move to the majors at some point this year, and we could have something to get excited about. Oh, and we should have phenomenal defense behind these guys, which can't hurt.

[Ignitor 4ever]

You just cannot evaluate a trade like the Brewers made with Burnes until at least a full season (or more) have gone by after the trade.  The Brewers may have received too little or they may have completely robbed the Orioles.  We'll see.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, Ignitor 4ever said:

You just cannot evaluate a trade like the Brewers made with Burnes until at least a full season (or more) have gone by after the trade.  The Brewers may have received too little or they may have completely robbed the Orioles.  We'll see.

Agree. It takes time to evaluate all the pieces. Even then, I try not to look at it as "did we win or lose." Actually, I try not to pay too much attention to how the player(s) we traded away even do.

I try to focus on what the guys we get do for the Brewers. This was a big trade, so we got talented, MLB-ready prospects back. I hope they can play up to their potential over the next 5-6 years. If they do, we'll have acquired a couple of All Stars, and if that happens I don't care if Burnes wins multiple Cy Youngs in the future, as I'll be happy with the guys we got. 

If the guys we got both stink up the joint (which I don't think is likely), then I won't think we "won" anything, even if Burnes takes a nosedive as well. 

Overall, I'm excited about both Hall and Ortiz. I hope that I'm still excited about them a couple of years from now. Since this is about the rotation, I think Hall has the "stuff" to eventually be a top-of-the-rotation starter. If he can put that stuff to work and give us around 120-130 solid innings as a rookie this year, then I'll be happy. 

[homer]

Saw a crazy projection for DL Hall - 164 IP, 224 Ks. 

I don't think he comes close to that but if he did I'd do a cartwheel...maybe two.

[Fear The Chorizo]

18 minutes ago, homer said:

Saw a crazy projection for DL Hall - 164 IP, 224 Ks. 

I don't think he comes close to that but if he did I'd do a cartwheel...maybe two.

Honestly if that projection would be for the next 3 seasons as a reliever, I'd be pretty pumped, too.  Knowing it's based on him being in the rotation, even if I also don't see him logging that many innings in 2024, is insanely awesome as a Brewers fan.  Hopefully there's also not 100 walks included with that projection, too!

 

[Lloyd330]

45 minutes ago, homer said:

Saw a crazy projection for DL Hall - 164 IP, 224 Ks. 

I don't think he comes close to that but if he did I'd do a cartwheel...maybe two.

CBS Fantasy Baseball

[homer]

Just now, Lloyd330 said:

CBS Fantasy Baseball

[monty57]

59 minutes ago, homer said:

Saw a crazy projection for DL Hall - 164 IP, 224 Ks. 

I don't think he comes close to that but if he did I'd do a cartwheel...maybe two.

Isn't that what Dusty did to the young Cubs' pitching staff that ruined the careers of a promising young rotation? 

I don't think he gets over 120-130 innings. The team is going to need to be careful to monitor several of their pitchers' innings. It will be interesting to see how they handle everyone's workload.

[CheezWizHed]

4 hours ago, Ignitor 4ever said:

You just cannot evaluate a trade like the Brewers made with Burnes until at least a full season (or more) have gone by after the trade.  The Brewers may have received too little or they may have completely robbed the Orioles.  We'll see.

I've been sitting on this thought for a while because it sounds like sour grapes after trading Burnes...but I think he is going to fall short of being a TOR pitcher for the birds. Even for us, I never saw him quite as an "Ace".  He had one outstanding, dominant year.  But the ones since have been mixed.  He will have dominate stretches in a game where he looks like that '21 version of himself.  But then it seems like the third time through the order, he becomes very ordinary and hittable.  Rarely ever having a "disasterous" outing, but often teetering on the brink. Like someone flipped a switch on him and he looks like a very different pitcher.

The last couple years, his ERA has continued to climb while his K rate has fallen.  Each year, looking less and less like that '21 version of Burnes. 

Take away the Brewer's defense behind him, add in the NY East offenses, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him have a 3.5-3.8 ERA by the end of the year.  I was a huge early bandwagon guy with Burnes in the minors and stuck with him through his terrible debuts... but I don't see him sustaining his success late in his career either. 

[RedStickBrew]

2 hours ago, homer said:

Saw a crazy projection for DL Hall - 164 IP, 224 Ks. 

I don't think he comes close to that but if he did I'd do a cartwheel...maybe two.

I was just coming on to ask a question about how many innings he may get this year. I was thinking around 100 based on his workload last year. This is a crazy projection, but I’d be good with it

[homer]

1 minute ago, RedStickBrew said:

I was just coming on to ask a question about how many innings he may get this year. I was thinking around 100 based on his workload last year. This is a crazy projection, but I’d be good with it

I think most projection systems have him right around 100. CBS has some weird ones every now and then.

[Ignitor 4ever]

8 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I've been sitting on this thought for a while because it sounds like sour grapes after trading Burnes...but I think he is going to fall short of being a TOR pitcher for the birds. Even for us, I never saw him quite as an "Ace".  He had one outstanding, dominant year.  But the ones since have been mixed.  He will have dominate stretches in a game where he looks like that '21 version of himself.  But then it seems like the third time through the order, he becomes very ordinary and hittable.  Rarely ever having a "disasterous" outing, but often teetering on the brink. Like someone flipped a switch on him and he looks like a very different pitcher.

The last couple years, his ERA has continued to climb while his K rate has fallen.  Each year, looking less and less like that '21 version of Burnes. 

Take away the Brewer's defense behind him, add in the NY East offenses, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him have a 3.5-3.8 ERA by the end of the year.  I was a huge early bandwagon guy with Burnes in the minors and stuck with him through his terrible debuts... but I don't see him sustaining his success late in his career either. 

Yep.  All things being equal (meaning no injury) and I would take Woodruff over Burnes.  Woodruff seems to have the makeup of a true ace.  Burnes is a talented pitcher, no doubt.  He just seems to be in a slow regression.  Woodruff has that bulldog mentality that I love to see in a TOR pitcher.  I think the Brewers got Burnes' best years.  My opinion at least.

[DR28]

18 hours ago, homer said:

Wow, I would take those numbers in a minute! Curious the numbers they have for Peralta and Ashby?

[homer]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

Wow, I would take those numbers in a minute! Curious the numbers they have for Peralta and Ashby?

Peralta's is pretty reasonable. Ashby might be lucky to clear 100 innings.

[RobertCrawley]

On 2/28/2024 at 12:50 PM, monty57 said:

Isn't that what Dusty did to the young Cubs' pitching staff that ruined the careers of a promising young rotation? 

I don't think he gets over 120-130 innings. The team is going to need to be careful to monitor several of their pitchers' innings. It will be interesting to see how they handle everyone's workload.

Dusty was hard on starters earlier in his career as manager.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, RobertCrawley said:

Dusty was hard on starters earlier in his career as manager.

In 2003, Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano were high-upside young pitchers. Prior had 211.1 IP (from 116.2 the previous year) and Carlos Zambrano had 214 (from 108.1)

They also had more experienced arms in Kerry Wood and Matt Clement. Kerry Wood pitched 213.2 in 2002 and 211 in 2003, while Clement had 205 IP in 2002 and 201.3 in 2003 for the Cubs. 

Wood and Prior both developed arm issues that shortened their careers, Clement had one more decent year in Chicago before failing in Boston, while Zambrano had a pretty solid career through 2012.

 

The Brewers are in a position where it could be easy to push their young high-upside starters, especially if they're in the playoff race. There is a lot more data available these days, so I'm not too worried about them abusing their starters like Dusty did in the early 2000's.

It will be interesting to see how they handle their pitching staff, and I expect there will be grumbling from some fans if pitchers like Hall and Ashby are pitching well and they start limiting they in August/September. 

Hall's high mark is 94.1 IP, but that was back in 2018. His recent high was 76.2 IP in 2022, so he could be limited anywhere from 100-120 IP this year. Assuming 5-6 IP/start, that would be around 20 starts.

Ashby pitched 107.1 innings in 2022, but then got hurt and missed all of last year. He'll probably be limited to around 120 or so innings as well. 

Miley tends to get hurt a lot, and since 2018, his IP year-by-year are: 80.2, 167.1, 14.1, 163.0, 37.0, 120.1. Who knows what to expect there.

Rea was at a career high last year, with 124.2, so he should be able to pitch around 150 innings, which should be a full year for him.

Peralta of course is expected to be our ace, and we should be able to expect a full season from him.

It makes a lot of sense that we have guys like Junis and Ross, who can both make starts or act as a long-reliever, and Gasser and Mis are both waiting in the wings, and could be picking up some of Hall and Ashby's starts later in the year as they get close to their innings limits.

[Ro Mueller]

 

[brewmann04]

Matt and Mark should get one of those Starters out there in FA and sign one.

At worst if the team is doing poorly you could move him

[wiguy94]

22 minutes ago, damuelle said:

 

Felt like there was always a chance this could happen after he showed up to camp wanting to add weight. Rosiak said an offseason illness made him lose a lot of weight. I think being cautious with Miley and letting him get his body where it wants to be would be way smarter than rushing him to be ready for the start of the season.

[Ro Mueller]

With scheduled off days on March 29, April 1 and April 4, I guess we won't really need a 5th starting pitcher until April 9 (and maybe a 6th starting pitcher on April 10).

I'm not exactly sure of injured list rules - maybe we can place Miley on the injured list some days before Opening Day (March 28), with the hope of activating him by April 9th or 10th.

[jay87shot]

On 2/18/2024 at 3:34 PM, edfunderburk said:

In 2023 - Burnes, Woodruff, & Houser combined for 64 starts - 372 innings - 3.41 ERA 

I’m actually excited to see what the 2024 rotation looks like - including which pitchers make up these innings & what the overall production looks like as the season progresses

I hope Peralta & Miley stay healthy & eat innings while we cobble together the remainder of the starting rotation

I may be wrong, but I believe we have enough arms & talent among the mix of veterans & youngsters to be competitive in the NL Central once again this year

I’m ready for baseball … the Bucks have been terribly disappointing after losing Jrue Holiday & adding Damian Lillard … I’d rather watch the youth movement of the Brewers - especially with expectations lower than in previous years

Don't forget Teheran and Lauer made 20 starts. It isn't like we had a knockout rotation last year, they were great at keeping us in the game and then our pen was so dominant that we were able to win the division. If Peralta can be close to a 3 ERA starter and Miley can replicate last year there is plenty of upside Hall, Ashby, Gasser, Rodriguez, Misi, and late season Woody to have a better rotation than 2023. There is even some decent upside in Junis, Rae, and Ross as well to be better than passible #4/5 starters.

Our starters were worth roughly 11-12 WAR (rough adding in head). Say Freddy can give 4 WAR, 3 WAR for 1 young guy, 2-3 Miley, and 3-4 total for the 4,5,6 spots puts us in the 12-14 range. I get that there is some worrisome downside, however we hve enough options that is someone looks bad for 3-4 starts it should be easy to replace them quickly.

[edfunderburk]

6 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Don't forget Teheran and Lauer made 20 starts. It isn't like we had a knockout rotation last year, they were great at keeping us in the game and then our pen was so dominant that we were able to win the division. If Peralta can be close to a 3 ERA starter and Miley can replicate last year there is plenty of upside Hall, Ashby, Gasser, Rodriguez, Misi, and late season Woody to have a better rotation than 2023. There is even some decent upside in Junis, Rae, and Ross as well to be better than passible #4/5 starters.

Our starters were worth roughly 11-12 WAR (rough adding in head). Say Freddy can give 4 WAR, 3 WAR for 1 young guy, 2-3 Miley, and 3-4 total for the 4,5,6 spots puts us in the 12-14 range. I get that there is some worrisome downside, however we hve enough options that is someone looks bad for 3-4 starts it should be easy to replace them quickly.

According to Rosiak this afternoon - Murphy said Miley is 50/50 for being ready for Opening Day. 

[edfunderburk]

9 hours ago, monty57 said:

Miley tends to get hurt a lot, and since 2018, his IP year-by-year are: 80.2, 167.1, 14.1, 163.0, 37.0, 120.1. Who knows what to expect there.

Rosiak quoted Murph saying Miley was 50/50 to be ready for the season opener 

any details available on his potential injury?

[wiguy94]

41 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Rosiak quoted Murph saying Miley was 50/50 to be ready for the season opener 

any details available on his potential injury?

Rosiak said on camp report day that Miley had an offseason illness that left him needing to add weight coming into camp. Could be the reason. I've seen nothing about him being injured.