Brewers Letting Teams Know Willy Adames Is Available In Trade

[Lloyd330]

Just trade him to the Dodgers for Frasso and Ferris and be done with it. 

[umphrey]

1 hour ago, Madhawk23 said:

Well, if we decide to keep him for the entire season and he doesn't put up good numbers....then I think there is a real possibility that we don't give him the QO that would then give us the comp pick if he signs elsewhere next winter.  

A lot of what ifs there but I think his floor contract after a down year is in the neighborhood of 4/$80m and if we gave him a QO he would probably decline it or if he didn’t then we just keep him on another 1 year deal or even roll it into an extension. His defensive numbers prop him up and he would have a lot of perceived upside offensively based on career numbers and still being fairly young. 

[Ignitor 4ever]

I think it is pretty obvious the Brewers preference is to trade Adames and roll with young guys in 2024.  Where there is smoke, there is usually fire, and there has been plenty of smoke out there about the Brewers wanting to trade Adames.  As has been pointed out, there is a risk with Adames that he has another year in 2024 like 2023 and the Brewers end up letting him walk without making a QO (that he might take) and we get nothing for him. 

The Brewers just have decide how much they want to gamble on him.  If the offers right now are poor, then do we roll the dice and hope he puts up big numbers the first half of the season to increase his trade value?  That also gives the Brewers the option of just going for it with Adames (if the team is in contention) and taking a comp pick.  The obvious risk with that approach is that Adames performs this season as bad as 2023 we may get a couple of lotto tickets for him at the trade deadline and have to live with that.  

The Adames situation is similar yet different from Burnes.  They both come with one year of control, but Burnes was a proven commodity who has been reliably good for several years.  Adames is a bit of a wildcard as to what you will get.  

[Outlander]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Isn’t 27 or 28 generally considered prime? In other words, every year after this year, we should expect decline. 
 

Adames offensive production has been an arrow pointing down into the right for three years. 

Large variances from player to player but usually plateau around 28 or 29 so would not expect his best days to be behind him. However, whoever signs him should see significant decline. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if 2024 ended up being the best year of his career.

[Frisbee Slider]

35 minutes ago, Outlander said:

However, whoever signs him should see significant decline.

Completely agreed. 

[brewers888]

Devin is the guy to trade considering our bullpen is the strength of the team and with two years of control his value will never be higher. If someone wants to pay a relatively high price for Adames I'd move him in a second but I have a feeling the offers are not all that great. Going forward the move is going to be trading guys with 2 years of service remaining as we saw the return on Burnes was most likely well short of what they could have gotten a year earlier. 

[Madhawk23]

1 hour ago, Lloyd330 said:

Just trade him to the Dodgers for Frasso and Ferris and be done with it. 

If this offer was already on the table from the Dodgers, I can almost guarantee that the trade would have been done already.  I can't see anyway possible we're getting a package of essentially two Top 100 prospects in return for Adames.  I'd be tickled pink if we even got one of those guys back in a deal for him.  

[DR28]

19 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

If this offer was already on the table from the Dodgers, I can almost guarantee that the trade would have been done already.  I can't see anyway possible we're getting a package of essentially two Top 100 prospects in return for Adames.  I'd be tickled pink if we even got one of those guys back in a deal for him.  

If the deal is we're getting screwed... Frasso is out all of 2024 with shoulder surgery.

[Madhawk23]

14 minutes ago, DR28 said:

If the deal is we're getting screwed... Frasso is out all of 2024 with shoulder surgery.

Oh....I was confusing Frasso with Stone.  Yes, you are right - Frasso is out with a shoulder surgery, so we probably don't want any part of that.  Ferris is a pretty damn impressive pitching prospect though, so you could do A LOT worse in getting him back in a package for Adames.  But, I'm sure Arnold would be looking for someone that is a bit closer to being a big league contributor.  

[DR28]

8 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

Oh....I was confusing Frasso with Stone.  Yes, you are right - Frasso is out with a shoulder surgery, so we probably don't want any part of that.  Ferris is a pretty damn impressive pitching prospect though, so you could do A LOT worse in getting him back in a package for Adames.  But, I'm sure Arnold would be looking for someone that is a bit closer to being a big league contributor.  

Sheehan or Stone + maybe someone like Pages would be a nice package for Adames.... Doubt we make a deal with Dodgers tho.

[Madhawk23]

3 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Sheehan or Stone + maybe someone like Pages would be a nice package for Adames.... Doubt we make a deal with Dodgers tho.

I think Stone is much more realistic for Adames than Sheehan is.  If we want Sheehan, I think we'd have to throw Devin into the deal as well.  FWIW, the trade value simulator site has Willy with an 11.1M Surplus value, and a Stone/Pages package at 37M surplus value.  So, it's very possible that the Dodgers would even turn that offer down as well?  

[NOMAAM]

Marlins is the team in my mind.  Dodgers have too many fragile pitchers to trade away from their young arm surplus.  Edward Cabrera would be the guy to target.  Jesus would be great but don’t see Marlins even thinking of dealing him.

[NOMAAM]

Adames, Rodriguez SP., Wiermer or Turang  for Taylor Scott and Cabrera.  

[Scooterfletcher]

13 hours ago, NOMAAM said:

Adames, Rodriguez SP., Wiermer or Turang  for Taylor Scott and Cabrera.  

Huge overpay by us including Rodriguez.  This deal is a no go.  Should be able to swap out Rodriguez for a Logan Henderson and I’d guess they’d accept.

[NOMAAM]

12 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Huge overpay by us including Rodriguez.  This deal is a no go.  Should be able to swap out Rodriguez for a Logan Henderson and I’d guess they’d accept.

Not a big fan of Rodriguez.  Also I think Scott is undervalued by various sites as well.  

[Scooterfletcher]

1 hour ago, NOMAAM said:

Not a big fan of Rodriguez.  Also I think Scott is undervalued by various sites as well.  

Be that as it may, his value is too great and a lesser thought of pitching prospect should be enough of an enhancement with Adams’s/Wiemer to make it work.

i really think Adames is for sure dealt before opening day unless the offers are just plain bad.   I feel we are moving to Ortiz at ss day one.  

Also, I think Turang utltimately ends up in a super sub role for a good brewer team the next several years.  250-400 abs as a Counsell type reserve on a good squad .   Basically a really good guy to have on the team but not a guy that gets a full time inked in starting job.

[TURBO]

23 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Be that as it may, his value is too great and a lesser thought of pitching prospect should be enough of an enhancement with Adams’s/Wiemer to make it work.

i really think Adames is for sure dealt before opening day unless the offers are just plain bad.   I feel we are moving to Ortiz at ss day one.  

Also, I think Turang utltimately ends up in a super sub role for a good brewer team the next several years.  250-400 abs as a Counsell type reserve on a good squad .   Basically a really good guy to have on the team but not a guy that gets a full time inked in starting job.

If Turang starts to hit, that could be proven wrong, but I am not really high on his hitting ability.  In fact, I'd like to see him traded at some point to allow for Black to play 2B, Wilken at 3B, Ortiz at SS.  Looking more at 2025 than this year, because I just don't see Adames being traded.

[Scooterfletcher]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

If Turang starts to hit, that could be proven wrong, but I am not really high on his hitting ability.  In fact, I'd like to see him traded at some point to allow for Black to play 2B, Wilken at 3B, Ortiz at SS.  Looking more at 2025 than this year, because I just don't see Adames being traded.

Yeah I’m not saying Turang won’t prove to be a starting caliber infielder but I believe Wilken Ortiz and Black will lay claim to three of the four infield jobs and I’m guessing we find a better fourth than Turang or that he proves to be more valuable in a billy hall capacity 

[Jim French Stepstool]

52 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Yeah I’m not saying Turang won’t prove to be a starting caliber infielder but I believe Wilken Ortiz and Black will lay claim to three of the four infield jobs and I’m guessing we find a better fourth than Turang or that he proves to be more valuable in a billy hall capacity 

Blacks' defense would be the decider in that scenario. I feel much better about him in a corner than 2B. So if Turang hits enough, there ya go. If not, your idea of him being in a more-or-less Counsell type role is a good one.

[NOMAAM]

On 2/9/2024 at 2:48 PM, Scooterfletcher said:

Be that as it may, his value is too great and a lesser thought of pitching prospect should be enough of an enhancement with Adams’s/Wiemer to make it work.

i really think Adames is for sure dealt before opening day unless the offers are just plain bad.   I feel we are moving to Ortiz at ss day one.  

Also, I think Turang utltimately ends up in a super sub role for a good brewer team the next several years.  250-400 abs as a Counsell type reserve on a good squad .   Basically a really good guy to have on the team but not a guy that gets a full time inked in starting job.

I think the offers for Adames have essentially been a salary dump for the brewers.  Thus why I think it takes more to move him in order to improve the roster.

[monty57]

On 2/6/2024 at 7:33 AM, MrTPlush said:

I’m sure the Brewers would jump on any decent offer. I don’t think teams are dumb enough though.

Unless you really want to save money, just keep him around as a fan favorite with Woodruff/Burnes gone.

This is pretty much where I am as well. FWIW, Baseball Trade Values has him around the same level as a Gasser-type prospect. 

Fangraphs/Steamer projects him at .237 / .319 / .436 wRC+ 103, 3.1 WAR

Turang is projected for .246 / .320 / .372 wRC+ 82, 1.2 WAR

Ortiz .266 / .321 / .410 wRC+ 97, 1.4 WAR

Black .241 / .341 / .390 wRC+ 101, 0.8 WAR

They have replacements, but they would probably lose a win or two by trading him. Honestly, I was surprised he still posted 3.4 WAR last year with his 94 wRC+. He has a good glove, but so do Turang and Ortiz. I think that if Ortiz puts up the Steamer projection listed above as a SS, he'll beat the 1.4 WAR they're projecting, and Turang/Ortiz/Black could post similar WAR to Turang/Adames/Black. It probably wouldn't be as good as Ortiz/Adames/Black, which is what I would expect to be the primary lineup if Adames isn't traded.

Adames doesn't have nearly the same trade value as Burnes, so I don't think it's necessary to trade him, and I'm pretty indifferent to which way they go. I doubt at this stage that they'd find a really good use for the money saved. I hope that if they trade him they bring back a nice prospect or two, but I'm fine if they keep him around as a good veteran leader for the young team.

[gregmag]

If we can get an actual Gasser equivalent for Adames — a MLB-ready, borderline top-100 SP, or even one who’s a year away — I think we have to do that. The problem is matching up with a team that has that guy to trade. 

[Scooterfletcher]

1 hour ago, gregmag said:

If we can get an actual Gasser equivalent for Adames — a MLB-ready, borderline top-100 SP, or even one who’s a year away — I think we have to do that. The problem is matching up with a team that has that guy to trade. 

This.   Which is why something like River Ryan might be all that it takes.  

[edfunderburk]

On 2/9/2024 at 2:48 PM, Scooterfletcher said:

I think Turang ultimately ends up in a super sub role for a good brewer team the next several years. 250-400 ABs as a Counsell-type reserve on a good squad. Basically a really good guy to have on the team but not a guy that gets a full time inked in starting job.

I love & wholeheartedly agree with this idea

[Playing Catch]

18 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I love & wholeheartedly agree with this idea

I prefer the idea that he comes back this season and claims an everyday middle infield job improving in every facet of his game, hitting a decent 90 wRC+ (projected to hit 89 wRC+), and putting himself in position to win his first of many gold-gloves.

I think there's enough strange-ness in his numbers from last season, to believe he will bounce back, and put to rest all of our concerns with his bat from last year's rookie season. A .268 BABIP? A guy with his speed? Even accounting for his lack of hard hit balls, that is bound to improve. Most of his hard hit numbers are in-line with guys that we hope he ends up becoming with the bat (Kwan, Arraez, Jeff McNeil). He was really bad last year, there's no doubt. And if he repeats that level of performance, well, he may never become anything but a bench specialist. But I, for one, believe that if the anecdotal reports of his professionalism and maturity can be believed, that he's going to become a mainstay on Brewer's scorecards for a long time.