Brewers Letting Teams Know Willy Adames Is Available In Trade

[Brock Beauchamp]

Preface: this is a Bob Nightengale rumor.

In his latest notes, Nightengale briefly mentions that the Brewers are letting teams know that shortstop Willy Adames is available in trade offers.

Adames, 28 years old, has one year of team control remaining. Following the Corbin Burnes trade late last week, the Brewers now have a murkier path to contention and three viable shortstops on their roster: Adames, Joey Ortiz, and Brice Turang. Over the weekend, our own Jason Wang wrote up what a trade to the Miami Marlins might look like.

This offseason had one of the weakest shortstop classes in recent memory. In addition to the Marlins, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been linked to various shortstop rumors over the winter.

View full rumor

[brewmann04]

Life of being a brewers fan 

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

The bucket sometimes seems to always have a hole in it.

[Lloyd330]

This is great news - Trade him while he still has some value cause come trade deadline, dont know what a .230 SS will get you even less. 

[bigred]

25 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

This is great news - Trade him while he still has some value cause come trade deadline, dont know what a .230 SS will get you even less. 

Unless he figured out how to be more selective at the plate, .230 is probably pretty generous. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm quite alright with Adames being shopped a bit right now, because I'd rather get some sort of prospect package in return for him now than risk him repeating his 2023 season and be left stuck with not even offering him a QO next offseason for fear he'd take it.  I also think if a trade does happen that sends Adames out of Milwaukee, the Brewers would turn around and sign a veteran starter, DH, and/or 3B to bolster their roster at other positions.

[MrTPlush]

I’m sure the Brewers would jump on any decent offer. I don’t think teams are dumb enough though.

Unless you really want to save money, just keep him around as a fan favorite with Woodruff/Burnes gone.

[Playing Catch]

My belief is that there simply aren't many/any offers that are that much better than a comp pick, so the Brewers may as well take his production this season, offer him a QO, and still get the pick. He seems to me like the "sweet spot" of the QO game. He's worth more than the QO, but not SO MUCH more that teams are willing to move for him in his last season.

[Frisbee Slider]

Adames is a nice player (3 WAR last year despite 95+ OPS) but every reasonable prediction should assume his best seasons are behind him?

[brewerfan82]

To get the comp pick after the 1st round we have to offer him the QO offer for $20M+ AND he has to sign a contract worth at least $50M, correct?

I'm afraid he's right in that area where 1.) we may not want to offer him $20M+ or 2.) even if we did and he turns it down, he might not get a $50M contract because he could be one of these stragglers looking to sign a 1 year prove it deal as Spring Training approaches next year.

I think if you find fair trade value for him, you take it and run with Ortiz at SS. If the FO really wants to still compete this year, then hopefully flip the $12M freed up towards adding another bat like Soler or J.D. Martinez, or probably on a more realistic level, someone like Urshela or Solano.

[Platoon Power]

57 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

My belief is that there simply aren't many/any offers that are that much better than a comp pick, so the Brewers may as well take his production this season, offer him a QO, and still get the pick. He seems to me like the "sweet spot" of the QO game. He's worth more than the QO, but not SO MUCH more that teams are willing to move for him in his last season.

That's how I view him as well.  Most of the teams that could use him the most aren't playoff contenders in 2023 and would probably prefer to sign him in the offseason.  I think the Giants are the one exception to the rule and could make things interesting if they were willing to part with Mason Black as part of the deal.  He would give us another near ready SP in AAA to join Gasser and Carlos Rodriguez.

[brewers888]

Devin Williams is the one to trade if we can get some solid offers. With two years of control remaining his value will never be higher and we have more than enough depth in the bullpen to sustain his loss.

[brewers888]

I would be in favor of trading Adames but I don't think the offers will be tempting at all so might as well keep him and hope he plays well enough to net us the draft pick after he leaves.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, brewers888 said:

I would be in favor of trading Adames but I don't think the offers will be tempting at all so might as well keep him and hope he plays well enough to net us the draft pick after he leaves.

Nothing would surprise me with Adames. I could see them not getting any decent offers or getting one almost as good as what they traded Burnes for. On one hand, he is coming off a down year. On the other hand, if you want to improve at shortstop there aren't many other options out there.

[StearnsFTW]

3 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

To get the comp pick after the 1st round we have to offer him the QO offer for $20M+ AND he has to sign a contract worth at least $50M, correct?

I'm afraid he's right in that area where 1.) we may not want to offer him $20M+ or 2.) even if we did and he turns it down, he might not get a $50M contract because he could be one of these stragglers looking to sign a 1 year prove it deal as Spring Training approaches next year.

I think if you find fair trade value for him, you take it and run with Ortiz at SS. If the FO really wants to still compete this year, then hopefully flip the $12M freed up towards adding another bat like Soler or J.D. Martinez, or probably on a more realistic level, someone like Urshela or Solano.

If he has the same year he had last year there's no chance he takes the q.o. and no chance he signs for less than 50MM in my opinion.

 

I think he'd get 100MM if he was a free agent right now.  Or maybe slightly less.

[LouisEly]

28 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

 On the other hand, if you want to improve at shortstop there aren't many other options out there.

This is exactly it.  If you want to improve at SS, even if these guys are available, here's what you have to pay:

Seager - 8 yrs, ~$32M/year
Lindor - 8 yrs, $34M/year
Witt - 11 yrs, $288M
Swanson - 6 yrs, $26M/year
Henderson - empty the farm
Bogaerts - 10 yrs, $25M/year
Bichette - empty the farm
Turner - 10 yrs, $27M/year
McLain - empty the farm
Correa - 5 yrs, ~$33M/year (if he's even any better at the plate)

It's either empty the farm or take on significant long-term financial risk (plus prospects), and few of these guys are even going to be available.  Compared to what you have to give up or pay for those guys, Adames is worth much more than a comp pick.

[jay87shot]

If we could get 1 solid prospect around our top 10 and an interesting 2nd piece (lotto type prospect) I would be in.

The Giants seem like a good place, I would think Marco Luciano still needs some time. The Giants have plenty of interesting secondary pieces that would interest us.

The Marlins as well, they might not have a lot in the farm system but they do have intriguing pieces.

I doubt the Dodgers do a deal at this point with Lux and Rojas but then again what is another 12 million over the cap.

I would still wait until a week or two before the season and see if there is an injury or two that creates a bidding war.

[Ron Theobald]

All valid points.  One important thing not yet brought up is the fact that Adames is a really important leader in the clubhouse.  Putting his locker next to Chourio's would seem pretty smart to me. 

This team just lost solid vets Burnes, Woodruff, Tellez, Caratini.  Players who knew what it takes to be a successful pro on and off the field.  Starting with last year, this group got really young, really fast.  Now Counsell is gone too.   

Comp Pick may be just fine for compensation. or maybe a trade deadline decision here.

[jay87shot]

20 minutes ago, Ron Theobald said:

All valid points.  One important thing not yet brought up is the fact that Adames is a really important leader in the clubhouse.  Putting his locker next to Chourio's would seem pretty smart to me. 

This team just lost solid vets Burnes, Woodruff, Tellez, Caratini.  Players who knew what it takes to be a successful pro on and off the field.  Starting with last year, this group got really young, really fast.  Now Counsell is gone too.   

Comp Pick may be just fine for compensation. or maybe a trade deadline decision here.

He is a good on field leader, keeping things light and making team signs for hits and Homer's. However it is hard to know if he is the guy to be giving mental advice and mentoring young guys. He could be great there to but who knows other than the club house guys.

[Devinep]

What the Brewers got for Burnes is what the value of Adames should’ve been. So I’ll prepare to not be overwhelmed by the Adames return 

[umphrey]

I don’t think he’s going to command a big haul, wouldn’t mind just holding for a season and a comp pick 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

16 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Adames is a nice player (3 WAR last year despite 95+ OPS) but every reasonable prediction should assume his best seasons are behind him?

He's 28. So no.

[sveumrules]

Yeah, Adames is still young enough to have that peak season, and what better year to do it than his walk year.

He also hasn’t really had a season where put together top end offense and defense

2019
99 wRC+ | +11.8 DEF | 3.3 WAR

2021
120 wRC+ | -0.3 DEF | 3.3 WAR 

2022
109 wRC+ | +14.8 DEF | 4.6 WAR

2023
94 wRC+ | +17.7 DEF | 3.4 WAR

His best hitting year was his worst by the fielding metrics in 2021, and then this last year he posted his worst hitting and best fielding numbers.

If he can come out and post a wRC+ around 120 with +15 DEF that should get him up around 5 WAR and give him a shot at landing a Dansby Swanson sized deal in FA. 

[Frisbee Slider]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

He's 28. So no.

Isn’t 27 or 28 generally considered prime? In other words, every year after this year, we should expect decline. 
 

Adames offensive production has been an arrow pointing down into the right for three years. 

[Madhawk23]

3 hours ago, umphrey said:

I don’t think he’s going to command a big haul, wouldn’t mind just holding for a season and a comp pick 

Well, if we decide to keep him for the entire season and he doesn't put up good numbers....then I think there is a real possibility that we don't give him the QO that would then give us the comp pick if he signs elsewhere next winter.