Projecting the Brewers' 2024 Opening Day Roster, v 2.0

[Matthew Trueblood]

In a winter plagued by inactivity throughout MLB, the Brewers have stayed quite busy. Let's try to pin down what the Opening Day roster is most likely to look like, assuming no further changes.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

When last I undertook this project, Tyrone Taylor and Adrian Houser had not yet been traded, let alone Corbin Burnes. Thus, we can use that piece as a reference point, to see just how far the Brewers have come since.

Lineup and Batting Order

1. Christian Yelich - LF (L)
2. William Contreras - C (R)
3. Willy Adames - SS (R)
4. Rhys Hoskins - 1B (R)
5. Sal Frelick - RF (L)
6. Gary Sánchez - DH (R)
7. Jackson Chourio - CF (R)
8. Tyler Black - 3B (L)
9. Joey Ortiz - 2B (R)

This is a right-leaning version of the lineup, and there will certainly be other names in play, especially at DH and when a tough righthander is on the mound for their opponents. There's a good amount of power in it, though, and three of their top four hitters are consistently great at getting on base. The variance possible for the bottom three players in this order would be massive, but that can be a good thing. There's dynamism in this kind of large-scale risk.

Bench

• Eric Haase, C
• Andruw Monasterio, IF
• Garrett Mitchell, OF
• Jake Bauers, 1B/LF

If you believe Sánchez will play a considerable amount as the designated hitter, you end up penciling Haase into a roster spot as the true backup backstop. It's certainly possible that Sánchez will be the backup catcher and the primary DH against lefties, which would obviate Haase pretty thoroughly. At that point, the bench would open up for the likes of Brice Turang or Joey Wiemer, who ended up as the last two guys vying for the final roster spot in 2023, too. Because Bauers is out of minor-league options, he's less likely to be part of the club come late March, barring an abominable spring. That makes it harder to find room for a couple of the younger alternatives.

Starting Rotation

1. Freddy Peralta (R)
2. Wade Miley (L)
3. Jakob Junis (R)
4. Colin Rea (R)
5. DL Hall (L)

What a transformation this unit has undergone since our last projection. It has a radically different feel, and while there's still a path to solid production from the starting staff, it no longer feels like the upside is one of the best such groups in the National League. A youth movement is afoot, which is nice, because Miley, Rea, and Junis are all liable to spend time on the injured list. If those starts are replaced principally by Robert Gasser, Carlos F. Rodriguez, and/or Jacob Misiorowski, the team might benefit tremendously in both the short and the long term.

Bullpen

• Devin Williams (R)
• Trevor Megill (R)
• Joel Payamps (R)
• Abner Uribe (R)
• Hoby Milner (L)
• Aaron Ashby (L)
• Bryse Wilson (R)
• Joe Ross (R)

At a certain point, Gasser is within his rights to feel downright bitter if he's left in Triple A again. The Brewers might have to take that chance. In all honesty, though, the bottom three names on this list are written in light pencil. Ashby's health history warns us not to assume he'll be healthy come Opening Day, even though he enters spring training that way. If he does end up able to take the mound, though, he's as likely to force his way into the rotation (either bloating it to six arms or displacing Hall to the pen, where many scouts believe he'll eventually land anyway) as to be part of the reliever fraternity.

Wilson was durable and terrific last year, but in a way that is very hard to sustain from one season to the next. Though he's going to get every chance to make the team, he might come to Arizona without the magical ability to avoid the fat parts of bats that made him so good in 2023. That happens with relievers, and if it happens to Wilson, he might be on waivers come the end of March. Ross's durability is always in doubt, but he does help lock out optionable arms like Gasser, Bryan Hudson, and Elvis Peguero, for as long as he's able to pitch but not needed as a starter.

All over, this just feels like a roster that is about to be shaken by another significant trade or two. As currently constructed, the Brewers are likely to be a competitive but not quite truly winning team. It's an uncomfortable limbo. The good news is, it's not likely to last. The bad news might be the good news.

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Where does this projection go awry? Who would you have that I excluded, and how would you arrange this collection of talent? Let us know.

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[old hickory]

I mean, we got his favorite catcher, so Snell is basically a lock... right?

[duewizard]

I feel Ross might be in the rotation rather than Junis. Otherwise I agree.

[Outlander]

I don't think they carry three catchers, pretty much a wasted roster spot. The amount Sanchez will play DH is also overstated. WIll be a fight for that final spot. I think the pitchers are correct as of now but always an injury.

[eddiemathews]

I have Hall firmly in the pen. I have little faith in Ashby, and that opens things up for Gasser.

I see more of Yeli at DH with Mitchell in right and Frelick in left vs righties. And yeah, another infielder over Haase. Somebody will lose a catcher this spring and give the Brewers a low-level minor leaguer for him. 

But of course, waddaeyeknow.

Wonder how Murph prefers his line-ups. With the three batters faced rule, alternating left/right in the line-up does seem to make sense.

[Joseph Zarr]

I wish I shared the bullish projections for LHP Aaron Ashby. I certainly hope these prove to be true. AND, my personal addendum here is: he's had 6 months to further rehab his throwing shoulder.

This being said, and with all due respect to Aaron Ashby the person, Aaron Ashby the pitcher wasn't even a High-A arm in his late summer rehab outings. At each successive rehab run up the affiliate ladder he was hit even harder. His velo stayed way down. His ball movement and action were non-existent. His pitching form was extremely restricted and tight. He was a sitting duck. Coming out of that injury process and into the fire, he was a shell of his former self. As a Brewers fan, it was truly sad. 

I sure as hyeck hope we are considerably far away from that period of his baseball career. These shoulder injuries are so unknown and the early returns for Ashby were fairly concerning. And, as such, there is just no way I could project him onto that coveted opening day roster. 

Here's hoping spring brings new life to that young man's pitching career!

To this end, I quite easily and readily swap out LHP Robert Gasser as the opening day long man out of the Pen or the Lefty coupling with DL Hall for that 5th spot. It's an easy call. Gasser proved all he needed to prove at Triple-A last year. He deserves a chance to showcase his wares at the MLB level to start the season. Out of the bullpen makes great sense as a Middleman, so to speak.

[Diamond Dog]

Like the lineup, especially with Black and Ortiz.  Agree w/ others Yelly needs more DH time. Not sure how dependable Sanchez will be - possibly either really good or really bad.

Surprise of the year offensively -- Joey Wiemer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Diamond Dog said:

Like the lineup, especially with Black and Ortiz.  Agree w/ others Yelly needs more DH time. Not sure how dependable Sanchez will be - possibly either really good or really bad.

Surprise of the year offensively -- Joey Wiemer.

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

I'm really pulling for Wiemer to break out this year. I'm not really sure why but I really like the guy.

[Diamond Dog]

Thanks Brock -- been watching your site the last couple months.

Positive and timely articles and comments seem to be the norm here.

[CheezWizHed]

4 hours ago, Diamond Dog said:

Surprise of the year offensively -- Joey Wiemer.

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm really pulling for Wiemer to break out this year. I'm not really sure why but I really like the guy.

Wiemer is really easy to like.  The Athletic ability, the gung-ho attitude... it feels like a 12 year old out there in a man's body.  Great underdog story.

But for his sake, I hope he starts in AAA... I hope they have been working on his swing to close some of those holes and I want him to have a low pressure spot to refine it.  One step back to (hopefully) produce 3 steps forward. 

His floor as a defensive OFer is already achieved.  But it would be great to be able to unlock his contact and make his power all the more potent. 

[Michael Trzinski]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm really pulling for Wiemer to break out this year. I'm not really sure why but I really like the guy.

He just seems to be a likeable guy, and I hope those type of players succeed, as well!

[Brewcrew82]

My best guess based on how this regime operates: 

C: Contreras, Sanchez

IF: Hoskins, Adames, Turang, Ortiz, Monasterio, Bauers

OF: Yelich, Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer, Perkins

SP: Peralta, Miley, Junis, Rea, Hall 

RP: Williams, Uribe, Payamps, Megill, Milner, Peguero, Wilson, Ross

vs RHP:

1) Yelich LF

2) Contreras C

3) Hoskins 1B

4) Adames SS

5) Bauers DH

6) Frelick RF

7) Chourio CF

8) Ortiz 3B

9) Turang 2B

vs. LHP:

1) Yelich LF

2) Contreras DH

3) Hoskins 1B

4) Sanchez C

5) Adames SS

6) Chourio CF

7) Ortiz 3B

8) Monasterio 2B

9) Wiemer RF

[eddiemathews]

40 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

My best guess based on how this regime operates: 

C: Contreras, Sanchez

IF: Hoskins, Adames, Turang, Ortiz, Monasterio, Bauers

OF: Yelich, Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer, Perkins

SP: Peralta, Miley, Junis, Rea, Hall 

RP: Williams, Uribe, Payamps, Megill, Milner, Peguero, Wilson, Ross

vs RHP:

1) Yelich LF

2) Contreras C

3) Hoskins 1B

4) Adames SS

5) Bauers DH

6) Frelick RF

7) Chourio CF

8) Ortiz 3B

9) Turang 2B

vs. LHP:

1) Yelich LF

2) Contreras DH

3) Hoskins 1B

4) Sanchez C

5) Adames SS

6) Chourio CF

7) Ortiz 3B

8) Monasterio 2B

9) Wiemer RF

Where's Mitchell?

[Brewcrew82]

27 minutes ago, eddiemathews said:

Where's Mitchell?

AAA or traded.

[eddiemathews]

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

AAA or traded.

I could see him traded, but if he isn't I think he's getting at least 400 PA's at the MLB level. Unless, of course, he gets hurt...

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, eddiemathews said:

I could see him traded, but if he isn't I think he's getting at least 400 PA's at the MLB level. Unless, of course, he gets hurt...

I think the team is a bit terrified by his peripheral numbers. If Yelich is indeed going to be playing mostly OF, he’s going to be crowded out in terms of ABs, with Yelich, Chourio, and Frelick all taking precedence before him. And then Wiemer has the advantage of being able to play for Frelick or Yelich against LHP. 

A trade or working out his swing issues in everyday ABs in AAA is the way to go until an injury arises or one of the other OFs underperforms. 

[Sugarrayray]

Can anybody please explain to me why Bauers is on anyone’s list? I really struggle to see what value he has. And also makes more than the minimum so I just don’t see him coming close to making the team.
 

Also I would be shocked if Elvis ain’t in the building to start the year based on how much they loved to use him last year. I also think the chances of the two of Ross and Ashby BOTH being healthy and effective and ready to pitch at the beginning of the year are being overstated. And I think Gasser tends to get overlooked a lot. Out of the three leftie prospects he has the least impressive stuff but by far the lowest reliever risk. He has multiple pitches and knows how to attack and set guys up, doesn’t miss starts and strikes guys out, and has the best command of the 3. I actually believe he will be second on the team in innings pitches this year!

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Sugarrayray said:

Can anybody please explain to me why Bauers is on anyone’s list? I really struggle to see what value he has. And also makes more than the minimum so I just don’t see him coming close to making the team.
 

Also I would be shocked if Elvis ain’t in the building to start the year based on how much they loved to use him last year. I also think the chances of the two of Ross and Ashby BOTH being healthy and effective and ready to pitch at the beginning of the year are being overstated. And I think Gasser tends to get overlooked a lot. Out of the three leftie prospects he has the least impressive stuff but by far the lowest reliever risk. He has multiple pitches and knows how to attack and set guys up, doesn’t miss starts and strikes guys out, and has the best command of the 3. I actually believe he will be second on the team in innings pitches this year!

They traded some decent prospects for Bauers, and we could use a left handed power hitter in the lineup. He hasn’t shown it yet in the majors, but he changed his swing and had some nice peripherals last year that they’re betting on. I personally don’t see how he doesn’t make the OD roster.

With Gasser, it’s as simple as 1) he’s not on the 40 man and 2) they gain an extra year of control by holding him down the first couple weeks or so. 

[eddiemathews]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They traded some decent prospects for Bauers, and we could use a left handed power hitter in the lineup. He hasn’t shown it yet in the majors, but he changed his swing and had some nice peripherals last year that they’re betting on. I personally don’t see how he doesn’t make the OD roster.

With Gasser, it’s as simple as 1) he’s not on the 40 man and 2) they gain an extra year of control by holding him down the first couple weeks or so. 

He's had enough success in the minors to still be viewed as a possible solid MLB player, and if he can be he'd inherit first after Hoskins leaves.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I didn’t like the deal but I think the fact they gave up a halfway intriguing prospect for Bauers means they like him enough to at least start the year on the roster.

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

Not feeling or seeing  Bauer's place on this roster. I think Joey Weimer and Brice Turang will both play their way on this roster. I also don't see the need for another catcher besides Contreras and Sanchez. Bottom line is no Bauer and no third catcher opening the door for Weimer/Turang. Gasser may very well be in the starting rotation and Hall may very well be in the bullpen. 

[Sugarrayray]

6 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They traded some decent prospects for Bauers, and we could use a left handed power hitter in the lineup. He hasn’t shown it yet in the majors, but he changed his swing and had some nice peripherals last year that they’re betting on. I personally don’t see how he doesn’t make the OD roster.

With Gasser, it’s as simple as 1) he’s not on the 40 man and 2) they gain an extra year of control by holding him down the first couple weeks or so. 

Well, I don’t agree with their thinking here; I’ve seen swing changes sited too many times to get my hopes for a 28 year old with a truly putrid major league track record. Hope I’m wrong. I just think a year like this one, suppressing at-bats for guys like Mitchell, Black, and even Wiemer for a guy like this is truly misguided. And yeah was sad to see Avina go for this bum. 
 

Anyhow thanks for explaining their rational for this to me.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Assuming that Yelich, Chourio and Frelick are healthy, I kind of hope Mitchell and Wiemer are an either or proposition to start the season even if they keep 5 outfielders. Both could use more at bats than a fifth outfielder would get.