Grades 20 Games In

[jay87shot]

How would you grade individual performances to this part?

A+= Contreras, Turang, Perkins, Adames, Yelich, Peralta, Hudson    Not much to say all spectacular.

A= Ortiz, Rae     Ortiz is maybe an error or two away from an A+ and Rae has been a bit lucky but has been a godsend so far.

B+= Sal Frelick        He could use some more doubles but is hitting .300, somehow he ranks poorly as a LF but I haven't been to concerned about that.  

B= Bullpen      After Hudson the bullpen has been solid not amazing by any means but by the amount of work they have put in very good. I might be underestimating this based on how amazing the bullpen was last year.

B-=Dunn, Chourio, Hoskins      None of these guys have lit it up but Chourio and Dunn both basically came up from AA and have shown great potential and Hoskins has shown flaws but gave the team a nice edge that 1st series and is also working his way back from a missed year.

C= Joe Ross     Not great but after a missed year the stuff is there that I could see him becoming a very solid starter as he works out the kinks and finds it.

C-= Bench (Bauers, Sanchez and lesser parts Miller, Wiemer, Monte)  By the stats these guy have stunk but Sanchez, Bauers, and Miller have provided some big moments that lift this up a bit)

D= Hall    Not great, some bad luck, some pressing, needs a reliable k pitch to challenge hitters.

Inc= Miley, Junis, other injuries

Coaching= A    14-6 with injuries aplenty, can't complain about anything I have seen

Front Office= A   So far the piece work rotation has held up, hopefully Gasser and Junis get healthy soon and we can save the bullpen eventually.

Luck= A    When we have scored big the pitching hasn't been great, when we struggle at the plate our pitching staff has been amazing, add in a crazy record in 1 run games. I personally believe a team/person makes there own luck but a few things here or there could have drastically reshaped the season so far.

 

[kestrel79]

So far I think they have exceeded all our expectations. Hats off to the front office and coaching staff for making this current team good to start the season.

Let's hope they can keep it going!

[Underachiever]

5-0 in one-run games, 5-0 in blowouts (5+ runs). That means something, I'm sure of it.

[sveumrules]

Good summation. Obviously 20 games is still a tiny sample, but there are already some Brewers hallmarks showing up on the stat sheet...

Defense. Brewers are currently 5th in the DEF column on FanGraphs. DRS (+2) has them closer to middle of the pack, but they are tops by OAA (+9). Framing is still in the red (-1.2), so should likely see positive regression there.

Speed. 27 SB is 3rd in MLB while only 4 CS gives them a nice 87% success rate vs a 78.5% league average. Currently 5th in the BSR column on FanGraphs which also includes extra bases taken and outs on the bases with balls in play.

Bullpen. Not quite on last years historic level, but currently at +1.79 WPA and 1.6 rWAR, which are both 3rd in MLB. They haven’t shown overwhelming stuff (98 FIP- | 13th), but have kept runs off the board (74 ERA- | 4th).

Rotation. Similar story to the bullpen where they haven’t had the best stuff (103 FIP- | 16th), but are still keeping runs off the board (93 ERA- | 7th). A scooch ahead of the 2018 (97 ERA- | 107 FIP-) and 2019 (99 ERA- | 103 FIP-) rotations on a rate basis to this point.

Lineup. Here’s where the Brewers have broken character. Currently sporting a 120 wRC+ and 5.7 R/G, both 3rd in MLB. I don’t think anyone honestly believes they are as good as the 82 Brew Crew (who also sported a 120 wRC+ at the plate) but barring major injury they should be much improved over last year (92 wRC+) and even with regression incoming have a shot at topping 2018 (105 wRC+) for the best hitting group of the Stearns/Arnold era.

[Underachiever]

9 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Good summation. Obviously 20 games is still a tiny sample, but there are already some Brewers hallmarks showing up on the stat sheet...

Defense. Brewers are currently 5th in the DEF column on FanGraphs. DRS (+2) has them closer to middle of the pack, but they are tops by OAA (+9). Framing is still in the red (-1.2), so should likely see positive regression there.

Really? There are four teams playing better defense than this team? Hard to believe.

[hoosier]

While the bats and the baserunning have been great, one concern I have so far is the bullpen. The struggles of Uribe and Peguero have been the most visible, and both have been unlucky so far with BABIPs in the .350 range (or maybe they're just serving up a lot of hard hit balls?). The guys who are having success so far--Payamps, Hudson, Milner--have all been comparatively lucky, with BABIPs at or well below the Mendoza. So you have to wonder, is that early season success sustainable? Bullpen success is the hardest thing to predict from year to year, and three weeks isn't enough to draw any real conclusions from. But the concern is there and it makes following their games a little more nerve wracking.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, hoosier said:

While the bats and the baserunning have been great, one concern I have so far is the bullpen. The struggles of Uribe and Peguero have been the most visible, and both have been unlucky so far with BABIPs in the .350 range (or maybe they're just serving up a lot of hard hit balls?). The guys who are having success so far--Payamps, Hudson, Milner--have all been comparatively lucky, with BABIPs at or well below the Mendoza. So you have to wonder, is that early season success sustainable? Bullpen success is the hardest thing to predict from year to year, and three weeks isn't enough to draw any real conclusions from. But the concern is there and it makes following their games a little more nerve wracking.  

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[KeithStone53151]

12 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Lineup. Here’s where the Brewers have broken character. Currently sporting a 120 wRC+ and 5.7 R/G, both 3rd in MLB. I don’t think anyone honestly believes they are as good as the 82 Brew Crew (who also sported a 120 wRC+ at the plate) but barring major injury they should be much improved over last year (92 wRC+) and even with regression incoming have a shot at topping 2018 (105 wRC+) for the best hitting group of the Stearns/Arnold era.

This is what I felt like we needed to be good this year. We needed to score 7-8 runs in a fair amount of games, and have done exactly that to this point. 6 players with substantial atbats hitting over 300. I think we'll add starting pitching at the deadline if possible but only if the offense justifies it.

The rotation being merely below average has surpassed my expectations(Rea pitching out of his mind, Peralta being even better than the high bar we've set for him...helped a lot), especially considering we've had 8 guys start games already due to injury and Hall/Ashby have been bad in their first few starts. I see the numbers above, but that doesn't account for the fact that we have the lowest innings pitched per start in the majors. 94 innings in 20 starts is quite bad, and it going to cause problems for the bullpen long term.

I know people are high on coaching but I would grade it a B- at best, with it going down to a C or worse if Turang sits against lefty starters(we haven't faced many yet). All these wins now do us no good if we have 3-4 of our better relievers that are either hurt or ineffective by the end of the season due to overuse. Murphy is proving to be more Maddon than Counsell so far, in part by necessity because most of the rotation can't seem to get through 5 innings without getting smacked.

Still, quite a bit to like on offense. I'm pleasantly surprised most relievers seem to have picked up right where they left off. I figured at least one of two of the guys that were good last year wouldn't be good this year...just the nature of relief pitching and none of these guys were williams/hader type prospects. One could easily squint and see a July and forward team with Peralta/Rea/Miley/vet SP/vet SP potentially winning 92-95 games if this keeps up(Hall/Ashby to relief down the stretch).

[sveumrules]

12 minutes ago, hoosier said:

The struggles of Uribe and Peguero have been the most visible,

Peguero (+0.53 WPA | 6 shutdowns) has been one of our best relievers along with Hudson (+0.77 WPA | 4 shutdowns) in the early going.

Elvis’s 3.27 ERA is a little inflated by that BABIP you mentioned, but his 2.48 FIP is bettered only by Payamps (2.28) among RP that have gotten regular work so far.

As far as the sustainability goes the bullpen is likely due for some regression as a group with a 3.09 ERA vs a 3.94 FIP, but the good news is Brewers bullpens have a recent history of beating their FIPs…

2023 (-0.62 | 1st)
3.40 ERA vs 4.02 FIP

2022 (-0.11 | 15th)
3.94 ERA vs 4.05 FIP

2021 (-0.32 | 6th)
4.02 ERA vs 4.34 FIP

2021-23 (-0.35 | 4th)
3.79 ERA vs 4.14 FIP
 

[sveumrules]

47 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Really? There are four teams playing better defense than this team? Hard to believe.

Looks like it’s three guys holding them back from the very top currently…

Hoskins at 1B (expected), Contreras at C (should hopefully improve based on last year) and Frelick in LF (likely small sample noise).

[KeithStone53151]

5 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Peguero (+0.53 WPA | 6 shutdowns) has been one of our best relievers along with Hudson (+0.77 WPA | 4 shutdowns) in the early going.

Elvis’s 3.27 ERA is a little inflated by that BABIP you mentioned, but his 2.48 FIP is bettered only by Payamps (2.28) among RP that have gotten regular work so far.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to say Elvis has been one of our best relievers when his ERA is fairly lucky considering a 1.45 WHIP and below 9 k/9. I looked over his batted ball detail and nothing in there leads me to think he's simply allowed a lot of bloop hits. Most hits allowed were clean. That FIP number seems illogical to me and not a fair representation of how he's done. ERA, xFIP, xERA, WAR...all seem better. He's been good(3.5 for me is good) he hasn't been great(2.5 would be great).

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

It doesn't make a lot of sense to say Elvis has been one of our best relievers

Elvis has the most shutdown appearances and the second highest WPA on the team out of the bullpen.

Among relievers to this point, only Hudson has had more positive impact on the team’s winning percentage.

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, Underachiever said:

5-0 in one-run games, 5-0 in blowouts (5+ runs). That means something, I'm sure of it.

It means Counsell isn't the only manager that can win one run games.  

[nate82]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Speed. 27 SB is 3rd in MLB while only 4 CS gives them a nice 87% success rate vs a 78.5% league average. Currently 5th in the BSR column on FanGraphs which also includes extra bases taken and outs on the bases with balls in play.

I think that is telling us the Brewers are not stealing enough.  They should have more stolen bases but also more caught stealing.  Would like to see the success rate closer to 80%.  They are not attempting enough right now.  

[JohnBriggs12]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Looks like it’s three guys holding them back from the very top currently…

Hoskins at 1B (expected), Contreras at C (should hopefully improve based on last year) and Frelick in LF (likely small sample noise).

Frelick made the biggest defensive mistake of the season when he misplayed the De La Cruz single into an inside the park HR.  Since then, he's looked hesitant whether it's been in CF or LF.  Hoskins hasn't been great but Bauers has been so smooth by comparison at 1B it makes Hoskins look worse than he is.

[hoosier]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

Thank you. I stumbled across this site a couple of weeks ago, like what I see in the way of thoughtful, informed commentary. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

23 minutes ago, hoosier said:

Thank you. I stumbled across this site a couple of weeks ago, like what I see in the way of thoughtful, informed commentary. 

Thank you! The forums are quite old - a little over 20 years - but the site in its current incarnation is just a little over two years old now. We're really excited for this season, as it's the first where I really feel comfortable about where we stand on things.