Willie Adames

[tmwiese55]

30 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Struggling is putting it mildly, he has fallen off a cliff.

Yea how about that one.  I don't think I've seen any explanation on it either.  I was just throwing out a name though, IDK who else is potentially coming up that LA could get involved in, but yea the do make sense for Adames as you said. I just get the vibe LA is smart enough to stay away from a big deal to Adames. 

But as a point of comp, Bichette has been more in the 820 ops ballpark his career and would be a FA a year earlier.  That 60-100 extra every year is a big deal.   But yea, he's costing himself a ton of money right now.  Kind of screwing Toronto, first just by hurting the team on field but if he'd maintained his 820ish again this year he could get traded at the deadline or offseason for a massive haul. After this year (assuming it continues), they probably just have to ride it out with him next year like Willy's bad year made us do. Even if he bounces back next year he won't get too much back at the deadline being a rental.

[tmwiese55]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Adames had a 109 wRC+ and 4.4 fWAR in 2022...how is that not very good? I swear people on this site treat Adames like he's mediocre garbage when he's by far the second best SS in this franchise's history.

Sorry, he had a 717 OPS last year with a 310 OBP. Previous year he had a 298 OBP.  These are not good numbers worthy of mega contracts.    Matt Chapman had some very similar numbers the last few years as red flags, it made teams hold off on paying him and I bet San Fran wishes they held off too. 

No one is saying Adames is garbage, we're saying he's good at D but only OK at offense.  That is not "garbage".  Its just not worth 200 mil and whoever pays it is probably gonna regret it. 

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Sorry, he had a 717 OPS last year with a 310 OBP. Previous year he had a 298 OBP.  These are not good numbers worthy of mega contracts.    Matt Chapman had some very similar numbers the last few years as red flags, it made teams hold off on paying him and I bet San Fran wishes they held off too. 

No one is saying Adames is garbage, we're saying he's good at D but only OK at offense.  That is not "garbage".  Its just not worth 200 mil and whoever pays it is probably gonna regret it. 

Matt Chapman was hitting FA 2 years older and is lower on the defensive spectrum than Adames. Weird comparison. Also Chapman is on pace for a 3.5 fWAR season and 5+ bWAR season, why would the Giants regret that?

[tmwiese55]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Matt Chapman was hitting FA 2 years older and is lower on the defensive spectrum than Adames. Weird comparison.

Nothing to do with what I said.   I was just talking about their stats, which aren't anything special.

We were all looking to run Yelich out of town for having similar production and calling him the worst contract in baseball.  Now you're passionately arguing to give a similar contract to Adames. That's all Adames has been able to  do at his prime/peak, he's about to leave his peak and you want to pay him 25 mil pear year until he's like 36.   Go for it if you want,, I'm a hard pass though. 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, tmwiese55 said:

Nothing to do with what I said.   I was just talking about their stats, which aren't anything special.

We were all looking to run Yelich out of town for having similar production and calling him the worst contract in baseball.  Now you're passionately arguing to give a similar contract to Adames. That's all Adames has been able to  do at his prime/peak, he's about to leave his peak and you want to pay him 25 mil pear year until he's like 36.   Go for it if you want,, I'm a hard pass though. 

Yelich is a below average defensively LF. Why are you trying to compare his value while putting up numbers like that to a guy like Adames or Chapman who provide plus defense at more defensively important positions? Do you just not understand defense has value especially at a position like SS?

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Nothing to do with what I said.   I was just talking about their stats, which aren't anything special.

We were all looking to run Yelich out of town for having similar production and calling him the worst contract in baseball.  Now you're passionately arguing to give a similar contract to Adames. That's all Adames has been able to  do at his prime/peak, he's about to leave his peak and you want to pay him 25 mil pear year until he's like 36.   Go for it if you want,, I'm a hard pass though. 

Also Chapman's 3.5 fWAR and 5.2 bWAR pace is nothing special? Do you actually believe that or do you just only look at OPS to determine how good a player is?

[Fear The Chorizo]

About a month ago there were threads/posts about Adames lamenting the Brewers didn't trade him last offseason to get something in return, because he was slumping offensively badly enough where people were convinced the Brewers couldn't even risk giving him a qualifying offer this coming winter for fear that he would actually accept it.  Now we are contemplating giving him a contract offer well over 9 figures guaranteed, apparently.

When Adames is on one of his 2-4 week hot streaks he looks like a franchise cornerstone, then right after that he'll go twice as long looking like a guy a team shouldn't wait to replace and definitely not pencil in anywhere near the top half of a lineup everyday.  That is exactly who Adames has been his entire career, and it's not an offensive profile I'm comfortable with paying over $20m a year for more than the next 4 seasons to watch regress - particularly once his defensive value at SS craters with age when you have two pre arbitration SS's already on the mlb roster who are also arguably better offensive players than Adames is right now.

 

[wallus]

I would love to extend Will(y). The issue won't be the yearly salary but more of the years. Once his defense and bat speed slows down, I think the contract will become a major problem. If he would take a 3-4 year contract, I am in. Longer than that? No thanks.

[tmwiese55]

51 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yelich is a below average defensively LF. Why are you trying to compare his value while putting up numbers like that to a guy like Adames or Chapman who provide plus defense at more defensively important positions? Do you just not understand defense has value especially at a position like SS?

Of course I do.  But that's not what I'm not talking about.   I'm saying that people who can only muster low to mid 700s OPs are not special hitters worthy of mega contracts, no matter how good their D is because D can be had for cheap. To truly be worth big money you need to be an elite hitter.  Having 300 OBPs and so so avg stats is just not that. 

And even when it comes to megacontracts, even elite guys usually don't live up to the contracts as they age, but at least before they fall off they're worth the money. And being elite even after a fall off you can still be ok for a while.. So we shouldn't be looking to give a megacontract to non elite guys, when they fall off a bit they become the same as guys you can get similar production from for league min rookie deals. When a 740ish ops level guy dips he's now putting up offensive stats AAAA or backup type guys can do.

If you want to build a team paying that kind of money for defense, go ahead but I think that team would not be good.  I know you can get good defense for a fraction of the cost, for example we have two guys on our team right now that can do it for league min.  

You can use what stats you want. To me the most basic quick and simple one for hitting that is a good aggregate that everyone understand is OPS. Every stat has something good about, something bad about it.  OPS is one that while of course flawed provides a pretty steady middle ground of something to go off of and is quick and easy.    

ETA: and to Yelich is just logic. Guy with .750ish OPS we all tear apart and trash for being a crap hitter not living up tot he money. Fast forward 2 years, 750ish OPS level hitter we're now rushing to give 200 mil as he enters his 30s? Its just not all that logically sound.

Big long convo here that can be done but it simply comes down to most big contracts flop and blow up in teams faces. We are the smallest market and don't have money so we can't be the ones risking it.  If you think the contracts handed out to Swanson, Xander, and literally countless other guys the last 15ish year that have blown up in teams faces over and over and over are things you desire on the team more power to you.  But I hope they're smarter about things, which they have been so I'm happy with how they've been doing things. 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Ortiz turns 26 in less than a month. Extending him and buying out some FA years would be getting his age 31/32, 32/33, 33/34 years if you bought out 3 FA years. If you don't want them to extend Adames into his 30's why do you want them to do so with Ortiz?

 Willy at 29 signing a 7-8 year deal for at least 25M AAV
Ortiz at 26 signing a 6-year deal for maaybe 60M with 2 option years at ~12-16

It's not the same thing at all. Nobody is saying you can't sign a player into their 30s. The point is you don't sign players who will be in their mid or even back half of their 30s at the top of the market value. 

To put a finer point on it, give me a 26-year-old on a 7-year deal team-friendly deal EVERY time over a 29-year-old on a 7-year 25AAV deal.

LOL...C'mon Wieguy...you know this. 

[Playing Catch]

There weren't many posters around here clamoring to resign Adames last season when he was batting .199 on June 30th.

There probably will be posters hoping the Brewers non-tender him come November if he struggles down the stretch.

I think the goldilocks zone is right where the Brewers have been with Adames. Love him while he's here, hope he leads them to a World Series, tender him a contract, watch him leave for a draft pick, and thank him for his service.

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah you aren't extending Joey Ortiz and buying out 3 years of FA for under $60M. That possibility is long gone.

Yeah...so what? You're buying the right to have the team options.

You could probably get Ortiz for 6/50 and then a couple of 15M options. And that's probably a bit on the high end for a couple of months of solid production, but it's a helluva lot different from being locked in through 35 and...again, do you think Adames is taking a 5-year deal? I'd guess 7 years and with the dearth of FAs this year, maybe 8-years. 

 

I really love Willy. I don't think you need to be a "great" hitter in order to get a long-term deal, I think being a good hitter, hitting for power, and being an elite SS is enough on its own and I think Willy is worth the 25M over 7-8 years that he'll get. He's been better than Swanson. He's a 3-5 WAR a year guy.

I just don't think he's worth it for the Brewers who already have Turang and Ortiz. I think when WE sign players, it should be...Turang, Ortiz...Quero maybe(not now, lets see how it goes). I said Uribe earlier this year and at the price of a reliever, that'd hardly have been crippling(even in retrospect). 

But one of the top FAs and a SS on top of that? We just don't have that type of money to make that move and keep any semblance of financial flexibility. 

I also strongly disagree he hasn't been good the last two years. He's been very good. That's why he'll get paid. ~8 WAR those two years he hasn't been that good. But I also don't think you're going to be pleasantly surprised by Willy moving forward. He'll be a great teammate, defender, hit for power, he'll walk...but he'll also chase and go through prolonged slumps and that's just who he is. 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Adames had a 109 wRC+ and 4.4 fWAR in 2022...how is that not very good? I swear people on this site treat Adames like he's mediocre garbage when he's by far the second best SS in this franchise's history.

JJ Hardy would like to have a word. I would probably take Willy, but to say he's by far the 2nd best?

Hardy was...pretty damn good with the glove and he had some power. They're pretty close and both well behind 'The Kid.'

But I think fans do this when talking about extensions. People were talking about how Burnes wasn't an ace, he wasn't Cy Young candidate...despite finishing in the top 6- 7 in Cy Young voting and leading the league in WHIP last year, and everyone outside Milwaukee referring to him as an ace.

 

[Scooterfletcher]

If LAD want to trade us Knack Wroblewski and Martin I’m ready to see how Black performs at 2b or 3B and still think we win the division.

[brewcrewdue80]

8 hours ago, owbc said:

I'll pass on an Adames extension. I don't think we should ever be handing out contracts to top tier free agents. Those type of contracts are frequently burning franchises that have far more spending power than we do. I feel the same way about Contreras -- enjoy him while he's here but we'll surely have someone else in the pipeline to catch for us in 2028. 

I'd rather spend the money trying to buy out arbitration/FA years of our younger players who are on the right side of age 30. More Chourio-like contracts please, and try to buy out the arbitration years of Turang and Ortiz. 

 I agree on not extending  Adames because it's the SS position. Gow many draft picks and signings are at the SS position? Where if they dont stick, you play that player elsewhere on diamond. Ortiz/Turang combo can cover his departure and Black plays 2b.

[brewcrewdue80]

The post on extending Ortiz 5/60 with options would mean the option year buyout is included. The Brewers would be committing only 60M through his team control. It would possibly be a good move around trade deadline if trading Adames.  Mix good news with upsetting news. 

[Jopal78]

Most players comment in the media they’d “love to stay….” where they are currently playing but leave out the more important part “…but only if they pay me what I want”.

Adames is no different; he absolutely is aware what Swanson is guaranteed, Corey Seager. Carlos Correra etc.

Further does anyone truly believe that in Adames’ own mind he sees himself as less of a player than those three? 
 

Look at the Brewers history since Attanasio bought the team, when  the talent isn’t there to compete he cuts the payroll down to the bone. It’s exactly what he means when he talks about payroll flexibility: the ability to add or cut payroll based on circumstances. 
 

With Yelich already under contract long term the Brewers are not going to have multiple mega contracts hindering their flexibility. 
 

Adames will be happy to file for free agency, and the Brewers will be happy to have him decline their QO and pick up a draft pick. 

 

 

[sveumrules]

5 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

and Black plays 2b.

Tyler Black hasn’t played 2B since 2022.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Turang and Ortiz both could be the everyday SS in Milwaukee next season at a cost of around $1M in 2025 payroll - and this season to date, both of them have higher WAR and OPS #s than Adames.

Why would the Brewers opt to pay the 3rd best and oldest all around SS on their 2024 roster $25M+ a season to prevent either of these other younger players from taking that position next year at a fraction of the cost?

[MrTPlush]

In the last two years he once failed to manage an OBP over .300 and once couldn't manage an average over .220. He may get to a mid .700s OPS again this year, which would be nice. This doesn't scream like a guy that is going to produce heavily into his 30s... especially when his defense starts sliding down a hill.

You know who Adames is like? Carlos Gomez. Dude is exciting as heck to watch as a young athletic guy, but those types of fun dudes usually don't excel in their 30s. And the thing is, Adames defense nor his offense are honestly anywhere near peak Gomez. 

[thebruce44]

23 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Adames had a 109 wRC+ and 4.4 fWAR in 2022...how is that not very good? I swear people on this site treat Adames like he's mediocre garbage when he's by far the second best SS in this franchise's history.

Dude, this team had Robin Yount and the early years of Gary Sheffield.

[Fear The Chorizo]

13 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

Dude, this team had Robin Yount and the early years of Gary Sheffield.

And Valentin..

and Yuni B...

[Ulice Payne]

Ghostbear is awesome.

Every couple months he shows up and says his piece; then drops the mic and walks away.

As pandemonium ensues....

[BrewerFan]

19 minutes ago, Ulice Payne said:

Ghostbear is awesome.

Every couple months he shows up and says his piece; then drops the mic and walks away.

As pandemonium ensues....

Really? He does this nonsense every few months? Makes up a completely ridiculous narrative(or just lies, not sure which), and then...this is "pandemonium?" 

Maybe the Ghostbusters will come in and kill the Marshmallow Man next, eh Ulice? "It's Pandemonium out there." LOL...

I'm just pissed the Brewers refused to sign Burnes when he begged for a contract, but then Mark said, "no Corbin, I care more about Soccer and I'm not giving you one, I don't care how cheap it is." 

 

[brewcrewdue80]

12 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Tyler Black hasn’t played 2B since 2022.

He's blocked and 3b wasn't along with 1st until Hoskins signed. 3b now looks blocked with Ortiz.  You remove Adames and Turang goes to SS, 2b reopens for Black.