Garrett Mitchell v Sal Frelick: Which Way Do The Brewers Go?

[Jake McKibbin]

Garrett Mitchell has been showing power, an improved batted-ball profile and electricity in the field during his rehab assignment. Sal Frelick has shown grit, development and determination both in the outfield and at the plate. Which character is the best fit for this Brewers team?

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Thankfully, Garrett Mitchell's hamstring issue on Wednesday was of no longer-term concern, so this is an intriguing dilemma. Both Mitchell and Sal Frelick are hitting their stride. Frelick is fighting and scrapping his way on base, and has started to put better swings on balls with 34% of his swings being “squared up” (leading the Brewers) in June. While still having lowish exit velocities, he's getting the ball in the air and showing more power.

Mitchell is slashing .300/.404/.650 in Nashville, and is showing better-than-expected contact skills alongside some incredible defense. With an infield featuring young phenom Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich and the defensive maestro that is Blake Perkins in a breakout year, to whom should the Brewers tie their second-half fortunes?

Garrett Mitchell in Triple A
It did not take long for Mitchell to get going, hitting four home runs and two doubles in his first 40 at-bats--including a performance on Wednesday night that simply made him look too good for that level: a 429-foot blast to center field off MLB-ready Max Meyer, as well as a double, two walks and two outfield assists. That should have been a game that prompted the end of the rehab assignment and an MLB reinstatement. Then, he left the game in his final at-bat, clutching his hamstring. There's little doubt about the impact potential in Mitchell's tools, but there are performance-related reasons to wonder how well he can make that potential value into actual value, and there are obviously big injury risks here.

It’s undeniable that Mitchell’s ceiling is as lofty as they come, with perhaps Jarren Duran as a favorable comparison. Both are lightning-fast, extremely rangy center fielders with power and an electricity that gets a crowd going. Mitchell is one of the most talented players in the Brewers system. What's unclear is whether he can put it all together and stay on the field. That being said, he has issues with ground balls on top of swing-and-miss concerns at the big-league level, so the big question is: How have they looked so far in Triple A?

Mitchell has actually done quite well in this regard so far. He's still chasing too often on breaking pitches below the zone that are hurting his swing and miss figures slightly, but this is more a product of swing decisions than a hole in his swing. That’s good news for a player with a 37.6% career strikeout rate in the majors. He is showing improvements in his chase rate above the zone and better coverage inside the strike zone as a whole, compared to his previous stints in Triple A (for the sake of consistency in a comparison, it seems appropriate to keep the level the same). Where he’s really looked good, however, is in his ability to elevate the ball:

Compare his data in 2022-23 to 2024 on ground-ball rates, and it’s clear there’s a massive jump--albeit in a very limited sample. Mitchell has a launch-angle sweet spot rate of 40% thus far, compared with just 7.7% between 2022-23, with an average launch angle of 11.6° vs. 0.8°. It’s a big change, and although he’s sacrificed some exit velocity to get there, it’s a far more playable batted-ball profile in the majors. As a result of the launch angle changes, Mitchell’s natural raw power and athleticism are coming to the fore, and in terms of power output, it’s chalk and cheese:

If Mitchell can sustain any realm of this in the big leagues, he has the type of power that Frelick just can’t match, doing damage on pitches over the heart of the plate and crushing baseballs. He has a swinging strike rate of just 9% so far this season. With his blazing speed and nous on the basepaths combined with (perhaps) the only defensive ability that can match Blake Perkins, that’s one hell of a package.

Sal Frelick
Frelick is a completely different profile. He doesn’t quite have Mitchell’s ability on the bases, despite being fast in his own right, and he isn’t quite as good with his jumps in the outfield--although again, most would consider him an above-average defender in center field. He does two things better than Mitchell, however: he puts the ball in play, and he’s stayed on the field.

Frelick has been a slap hitter so far this season, with minimal extra-base power and strong strike-zone awareness. A chase rate in the 65th percentile and a contact rate in the 91st percentile help him grind out at-bats, fouling off pitches and putting balls in play. He has 39 hits on batted balls bouncing on the infield, and has struggled to do any form of damage to opposing pitchers.

Frelick’s produced some eye-catching defensive plays, but he does have some issues with his routes in center field, which are preventing him being a truly plus center fielder per Statcast metrics. He puts his body on the line out there, and after a shaky April that included a botched dive on an Elly de la Cruz liner, he has found himself looking much more like the outfielder he should be with his speed.

Also, and perhaps understandably to those watching him of late, he has outperformed his expected metrics by quite a bit. He has an expected OPS of just .612, and some regression may be incoming toward that number when the batted balls begin to find more fielders. Frelick has fantastic bat-to-ball skills, but unfortunately the quality of contact just isn't there at this point, and despite being serviceable due to his on base percentage, he hasn’t been able to kick on and take his profile from “I don’t whiff” to “I make good, consistent contact." If Frelick can continue to migrate toward the Brice Turang 2024 model, then of course there's more value to be had, but pure contact hitters have to be really elite with consistent .300+ batting averages to make above-average offensive contributions with limited power production. That is a concern at this stage in his career.

Over the last 30 days, Frelick is slashing .316/.366/.368 which is more than playable with his defensive capabilities. The eye test does suggest he's squaring the ball up more often, with some higher exit velocities. Sustaining this does make him a valuable cog in Pat Murphy's wheel, but can he sustain it?

The Brewers Needs
So this is where it gets fascinating. The Brewers lineup has been constructed to have very definitive roles for some players, with good hitters, sluggers and scrappers almost as three different categories. The likes of Christian Yelich and William Contreras are just good hitters; Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins, Jake Bauers and Gary Sánchez are definitive sluggers; while Tyler Black, Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are scrappy players who find ways to get on base and do damage on the basepaths.

Frelick fits into the latter group well, whereas Mitchell has the chance to be more the kind of player who joins the sluggers and the speedsters. He has prodigious raw power when he elevates the ball, but also the speed to run out grounders and cause havoc on the basepaths. He doesn’t quite fit into either category with aplomb, but the question for the Brewers is what they need most from their outfielders, and if that extra slugging ability is worth a little extra swing and miss. If Bauers, Hoskins and Adames are crushing balls, then arguably, Frelick’s profile could be more advantageous. If not, then that thump at the bottom of the lineup can really come in handy.

Mitchell with a 25% strikeout rate is an extraordinarily valuable player to have, and if he can stay around that range, then he’s a clear improvement. If he sticks in the 30% range or higher, not so much, so it depends quite where the Brewers see him landing at the moment and whether the small sample size is indicative of a larger change.

Mitchell, if his hamstring is all well and good, may be able to take this lineup to another level with even better baserunning and defense than Frelick, on top of that power production. It’s a big issue of contrasting styles the Brewers will have to weigh up for the second half of the season if both can stay fit, but I may be edging slightly toward Mitchell at this point.

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Can you see Mitchell being a big improvement for the Brewers offensively? Or do you see Frelick’s recent surge as an indication of a player to stick with? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Fear The Chorizo]

Mitchell is the right way to go soon, and Frelick should go back down to AAA....and in all honesty, if the Brewers are entertaining a trade to add a significant starting pitcher they should make a deal with Frelick as a trade chip.  He is actually blocked longterm as an everyday player with Chourio and Mitchell in the fold as an outfielder.

[Sixtolezcano]

Trade Yelich for a #1 or #2 SP and play all 3 OFs.

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Trade Yelich for a #1 or #2 SP and play all 3 OFs.

What team (that Yelich will waive his NTC for) has an extra #1 or #2 pitcher they'd trade to pay Christian $123.5M over the next four and a half years?

[Sixtolezcano]

6 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

What team (that Yelich will waive his NTC for) has an extra #1 or #2 pitcher they'd trade to pay Christian $123.5M over the next four and a half years?

Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, Astros, Rangers and Phillies.

[duewizard]

Mitchell probably has the higher ceiling. If only he could stay on the field

[Brian]

We have lots of options with Mitchell if he ever gets here, we even have the DH roll to consider besides the outfield. But at this early point I wouldn't even consider Mitchell an everyday player. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, duewizard said:

Mitchell probably has the higher ceiling. If only he could stay on the field

This. I would actually say definitely, rather than probably. And Fear The Chorizo is right regarding a possible deal. I mentioned awhile back that I think the one chance they'd add a substantial arm to the rotation is if one of a group of 3-4 people would be added as a headliner to the deal. Frelick is one of those. Mitchell would actually be another but it's hard to imagine somebody attaching enough value to him to make that work due to the health issues. It's those same issues that probably make them want to keep Frelick.

Save for a trade, when Mitchell comes up I think Black goes down.

[iKezims]

If Mitchell can guarantee health, then it's Mitchell. However, we all know that isn't the case so there shouldn't be any strong investment into Mitchell at this time as a cornerstone. That being said, isn't the answer just both right now? Getting Yelich more starts at DH makes us even stronger defensively. Plus someone suggesting Frelick sees AAA again is a bit ridiculous. All of Frelick, Mitchell, and Perkins have proven they are MLB players so the line is either deal one of send Black back down and play shorter in the IF. While I would love to say "deal Frelick" - the second Mitchell is hurt again, we all will be kicking ourselves. 

[harrydalton]

Assuming Bauers is safe I'd option Frelick and let him play some 3B and maybe 2B to strengthen his versatility. Perkins is what he is but offers switch hitting in the OF. They need to go with Black for more power than our pal Sal.

[Brian]

OF Garrett Mitchell (fractured left index finger)
Expected return: This weekend
Mitchell's 20-day rehab assignment expires on June 29 and Brewers manager Pat Murphy hinted the outfielder's next stop would be the big leagues, saying the club hadn't discussed optioning him to Triple-A Nashville in order to let Mitchell continue logging at-bats. Mitchell had a scare when he appeared to grab at his left hamstring during a game on June 26, but he was back in the Sounds' lineup the next day.

"We're going to take every precaution," Murphy said, "but he's close." (Last updated: June 28)

[Playing Catch]

I like the idea of optioning Frelick. I want Black to get more ABs, and innings at 1st base. Yelich is "fine" in LF. Mitchell could hurt himself on the flight to MKE, so I agree with iKezims that having a sure-fire starting CF in AAA isn't the worst thing.

I've been as big a Frelick-guy as anyone, but I had really hoped/expected to see a little more pop in his bat by now. Not HR power, but more doubles and triples ripping liners into the gaps and down the lines. That simply hasn't happened. In addition, I hoped he would grow into a more dangerous guy on the bases.

I love the idea of getting him some reps at 3rd (and 2nd?) down in Nashville, too.

[Jake McKibbin]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

OF Garrett Mitchell (fractured left index finger)
Expected return: This weekend
Mitchell's 20-day rehab assignment expires on June 29 and Brewers manager Pat Murphy hinted the outfielder's next stop would be the big leagues, saying the club hadn't discussed optioning him to Triple-A Nashville in order to let Mitchell continue logging at-bats. Mitchell had a scare when he appeared to grab at his left hamstring during a game on June 26, but he was back in the Sounds' lineup the next day.

"We're going to take every precaution," Murphy said, "but he's close." (Last updated: June

 

This is really interesting.. wonder if we'll see a decision as soon as today

[Brian]

23 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I like the idea of optioning Frelick. I want Black to get more ABs, and innings at 1st base. Yelich is "fine" in LF. Mitchell could hurt himself on the flight to MKE, so I agree with iKezims that having a sure-fire starting CF in AAA isn't the worst thing.

I've been as big a Frelick-guy as anyone, but I had really hoped/expected to see a little more pop in his bat by now. Not HR power, but more doubles and triples ripping liners into the gaps and down the lines. That simply hasn't happened. In addition, I hoped he would grow into a more dangerous guy on the bases.

I love the idea of getting him some reps at 3rd (and 2nd?) down in Nashville, too.

Good point, Frelick being a smaller guy 5" 8" 185  you would think he would be more dangerous on the bases. 

[Jake McKibbin]

16 minutes ago, Brian said:

Good point, Frelick being a smaller guy 5" 8" 185  you would think he would be more dangerous on the bases. 

He's fast, but he doesn't consistently get good jumps on the base paths and as a result has never been quite as destructive as you'd think he should be when on base

[sveumrules]

Frelick’s at +2.0 BsR on FanGraphs, 23rd among 226 players with at least 200 PAs. I’m not sure his true talent level is much higher than Top 10% in MLB.

Might be a case where he seems less impressive by the eye test because he’s on the same team with guys like Turang (+4.7 | 3rd), Yelich (+4.1 | 6th), and Perkins (+2.3 | 16th).

Chourio’s got him beat on raw sprint speed too, though he’s only managed +1.2 BsR to this point. Partly due to stealing efficiency (10/2 for Sal vs 8/3 for Jackson) and partly due to opportunity (91 times on base for Sal vs 61 times on base for Jackson).

[Jake McKibbin]

50 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Frelick’s at +2.0 BsR on FanGraphs, 23rd among 226 players with at least 200 PAs. I’m not sure his true talent level is much higher than Top 10% in MLB.

Might be a case where he seems less impressive by the eye test because he’s on the same team with guys like Turang (+4.7 | 3rd), Yelich (+4.1 | 6th), and Perkins (+2.3 | 16th).

Chourio’s got him beat on raw sprint speed too, though he’s only managed +1.2 BsR to this point. Partly due to stealing efficiency (10/2 for Sal vs 8/3 for Jackson) and partly due to opportunity (91 times on base for Sal vs 61 times on base for Jackson).

He's been really good taking extra bases for sure, but I think despite his speed there have been issues in the past with base stealing. Even his minor league numbers never quite popped in comparison with his similarly speedy peers.

I'm not saying he isn't a good baserunner, merely that there's more in there

[tmwiese55]

If Mitchell is as good when healthy as discussed then he should be up and Frelick can take a break in AAA.  You want him getting regular ABs and he could also refresh on 2B/3B to add versatility when he comes back up when someone else gets hurt, which is inevitable.    Keep Perkins up because you don't care if he doesn't get regular ABs and his D is so good.  Bit more Yeli at DH and let Contreras actually get more rest. 

Having this kind of depth is good in a long season.  Sure, if a legit trade happens and you need Frelick/Mitchell in then so be it. But you don't need to be searching for it either. 

[Playing Catch]

25 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I'm not saying he isn't a good baserunner, merely that there's more in there

Exactly. He's not Vogelbach out there, but I had hoped he'd be more "dangerous," rather than just fast. That goes with infield singles/bunts as well.

[jay87shot]

I brought this up in the offseason and got massacred for it. Any chance we could have Mitchell learn some 1st (this offseason) and platoon with Rhys or Black next year. If Yeli is unwilling to try 1st maybe Mitchell goes there. It would be a waste to lose the OF defense but having a 1B who can steal 40 bases would be nuts. Add in Frelick platooning some at 2B/3B and there is pt for everyone.

Yeli DH 80/LF 60 

Chourio 102 LF/45 RF

Mitchell 90 CF, 40 1B (or move these to Yeli)

Sal 110 RF, 30 IF

Perkins 72 CF (more when someone likely gets injured.

A lineup like C-Contreras, 1B Black, 2B Turang, SS Ortiz, 3B Frelick, LF Chourio, CF Perkins, RF Mitchell, DH Yeli might be the fastest team in the history of the league. Maybe Sal just moves to 2B or 3B full time next year and makes it easy.

[jesusoftheapes]

On 6/28/2024 at 10:35 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

Mitchell is the right way to go soon, and Frelick should go back down to AAA....and in all honesty, if the Brewers are entertaining a trade to add a significant starting pitcher they should make a deal with Frelick as a trade chip.  He is actually blocked longterm as an everyday player with Chourio and Mitchell in the fold as an outfielder.

Sal is batting .267 and is one of the heart players on this roster.  I highly doubt Sal ever sees AAA again.   Frelick is not a trade piece he is one of the players who this organization has put a lot of effort and time into and will not be going anywhere.     The guy gets on base all the time when he is most needed. Garrett Mitchell can come back and be part of the rotation in the outfield and it would not take sending one of our best players away.     He is in no way blocked and no one is playing everyday in the outfield and we play matchups against pitching so rotating Yelich into a DH heavy roll would probably also be a smart move that would not take away anything from the roster.      Trading Sal would be really stupid .   I would trade Mitchell before I would walk away from Sal.   

[jesusoftheapes]

2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I brought this up in the offseason and got massacred for it. Any chance we could have Mitchell learn some 1st (this offseason) and platoon with Rhys or Black next year. If Yeli is unwilling to try 1st maybe Mitchell goes there. It would be a waste to lose the OF defense but having a 1B who can steal 40 bases would be nuts. Add in Frelick platooning some at 2B/3B and there is pt for everyone.

Yeli DH 80/LF 60 

Chourio 102 LF/45 RF

Mitchell 90 CF, 40 1B (or move these to Yeli)

Sal 110 RF, 30 IF

Perkins 72 CF (more when someone likely gets injured.

A lineup like C-Contreras, 1B Black, 2B Turang, SS Ortiz, 3B Frelick, LF Chourio, CF Perkins, RF Mitchell, DH Yeli might be the fastest team in the history of the league. Maybe Sal just moves to 2B or 3B full time next year and makes it easy.

I think he would be wasted at 1st given his speed and range that make him a perfect outfielder but the same could be said for Black really.  I do not hate your lineup.   I think build up hype for Mitchell and use him to get a pitcher in a package for Crochet.   The outfield is set up fine and one of the best groups in baseball as it stands and they are all very young and will continue to get better if left alone. Mitchell is the exact type of player the White Sox said they wanted for Crochet and the Brewers current outfield is pretty good as it stands with a high end future without Garrett Mitchell and the pitching help Crochet would bring to this starting rotation would be worth the loss.  If he can temp the White Sox into trading Crochet our way and give us a trophy piece at pitching that is the best possible direction for G M and the Brewers, , 

I think Sal probably can do things infield but also believer Oliver Dunn is pretty good and will become a solid 3rd base with a season more development as hitter.   

[jesusoftheapes]

On 6/28/2024 at 1:04 PM, Sixtolezcano said:

Trade Yelich for a #1 or #2 SP and play all 3 OFs.

destructive trades are not the way to take a 1st place team.   You do not trade away Yelich period.   Not unless the amount in return is so massive and instantly replaces his .320 bat the damage would be impossible to overcome and would sabotage the entire season.    Trade Mitchell though.   He sounds like just the guy the White Sox say they need to get to come off Crochet.  Crochet would put this team in a bid for big wins later.  

[SF70]

8 hours ago, jesusoftheapes said:

destructive trades are not the way to take a 1st place team.   You do not trade away Yelich period.   Not unless the amount in return is so massive and instantly replaces his .320 bat the damage would be impossible to overcome and would sabotage the entire season.    Trade Mitchell though.   He sounds like just the guy the White Sox say they need to get to come off Crochet.  Crochet would put this team in a bid for big wins later.  

Mitchell isn’t going anywhere until he can show teams he can stay on the field.