Article: 2024 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

[Jenkins5]

16 hours ago, balsamlaker said:

Late first round price makes sense as Tod Johnson made a comment about them seeing Payne in the mix at the end of the first round.

Agree. Plus you know they have discussed price with these kids previous so guessing they called him & said we don’t want to risk losing you before next pick, if we grab you here, is that money amount still right? 
 

One thing is for sure, Johnson & staff are all in on this kid & think he is the real deal. I know there are posters who treats rankings as the holy gospels but these scouting departments have so much more info & better sense of how kids are actually valued. Tod truly believed this kid wasn’t making it to 34 & legit believed he is the kid in this draft they weren’t willing to miss out on. To me that says a lot. 

[snoogans8056]

20 minutes ago, Jenkins5 said:

Agree. Plus you know they have discussed price with these kids previous so guessing they called him & said we don’t want to risk losing you before next pick, if we grab you here, is that money amount still right? 
 

One thing is for sure, Johnson & staff are all in on this kid & think he is the real deal. I know there are posters who treats rankings as the holy gospels but these scouting departments have so much more info & better sense of how kids are actually valued. Tod truly believed this kid wasn’t making it to 34 & legit believed he is the kid in this draft they weren’t willing to miss out on. To me that says a lot. 

Paying him the minimum 75% of our slot would place him between the 25th and 26th picks slot-wise. Feels like a good compromise if a deal was made.

[balsamlaker]

Morlando signing for under the 75%, as he did not take a combine physical.

[snoogans8056]

34 minutes ago, balsamlaker said:

Morlando signing for under the 75%, as he did not take a combine physical.

Morlando was pick number 16 and signed for $3.4M (the 75% would have been closer to $3.6M).

Our pick is number 17 and 75% of that would be exactly $3.4M. I think that is gonna be the number.

[Austin Tatious]

Very random thoughts on the draft FWIW:

1. I like the emphasis on young pitching.  I see it as a numbers game.  In the international market, for what it’s worth, most of our top signees have tended to be position players and this is a good way to balance it with young pitchers.  
2. With Letson, Knoth and others last year, we just added a bunch of more young pitchers.  Let’s hope we sign most.  The numbers game may allow for us to have a few bubble up and become major leaguers.  
3. I trust Tod incredibly.  As everyone knows, he’s an analytics guy who literally came from the tech world.  His 2023 draft was masterfully handled with the way he maneuvered the money to get lots of high upside guys.  How many actually make it remains to be seen but you’ve got to love at least a half dozen guys coming out of the draft.  
4.  Regarding Payne, I see it as coming down to his hit tool.  As a high schooler, we will have to wait and see.  Admittedly, I put zero research on him before the draft like I did with other guys, but I’m in a trust Tod mode.  
5.  I happened to see Corey Ray play at Louisville and I don’t see the comp to Payne.  Ray obviously had a poor hit tool and wasn’t even a true center fielder.  He was the one guy in the top ten I really didn’t want.  That draft ended up being a colossal failure overall but we never gave ourselves a chance.  After having a really bad year on the field, you’d like to reward yourselves with a promising draft pick and the organization didn’t do that.  With Payne, our analysis is better now.  If his hit tool comes around, maybe he’s a Vince Coleman leadoff guy who wreaks havoc.  If not, there’s at least a thoughtful process at work. 
6. This isn’t like prior drafting regimes.  The late Bruce Seid and Ray weren’t at Tod’s level as scouting directors.  Doug did some good things but he’d come to the media and talk all about our “projectable” tall starting pitcher draftees. Jungmann, Bradley, Eric Arnett.   Beyond them, how about Coulter and Kodi.  Lot of first round picks squandered with an overly simplistic methodology.   The way our analytic leadership handles it now, they are looking at data such as spin rates, movements along planes etc.  That gives me more confidence.  

7. It’s not like the draft in football.  The pick number is really about the money attached to the slot.  You have to look at the draft holistically and see how the whole class looks.  The Brewers famously played the numbers game last year.  It might not be the case every year, right.  If you love your organizational depth you may not be worried. But right now they are obviously adding numbers on younger pitching. 
8.  The evaluation process is more complicated in baseball.  The difference between college or high school versus the majors might as well be different sports.  If you can hit pitching at a lower level, it is hard to project because you’re looking at far different pitching.  Lots of guys can mash up to even AAA and that’s it.  
9.  I liked the Burke pick.  I didn’t get the negativity.  Good power, good leader and he’s not a strikeout machine.  I’d say he’s got a chance and I’m happy we went after that profile. If anything, I don’t think we’ve done it enough.  Coming into the draft his comp reminded me a bit of AJ Reed who came to the Astros also out of the SEC, from Kentucky.   He faltered at the major league level so hopefully Burke fares better.  

[wichmae]

 

 

[battlekow]

I guess Payne took the physical.

[Playing Catch]

So are we expecting Burke or maybe Dinges to play in Carolina this year?

[wiguy94]

14 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

So are we expecting Burke or maybe Dinges to play in Carolina this year?

Dinges I could see at Carolina although I could also see them just keeping him in Arizona to work on his catching. 
 

I think Burke probably goes straight to Wisconsin. You already have a super packed IF in Carolina, so not sure how you can bring in Burke and manage playing time. Bitonti, Adamczewski, Di Turi, Baez, Guilarte are all IF only and in Carolina. 

[Playing Catch]

That's a good point on Dinges working on defense in AZ. I'm low-key excited about him.

[sveumrules]

Obviously a tiny sample, but Braylon Payne has five singles, five RBI, four stolen bags, three runs scored, two walks, a double and a triple over his first three games as the youngest player in the Carolina League.

His 583/643/833 triple slash shakes out to a 315 wRC+.

[biedergb]

Incredibly small sample size

BUT in the half dozen at bats I’ve watched of his has not looked out of place. Didn’t seem overwhelmed with pitches and seemed selective. Also his speed helped with with a few hits like his “double” last night. 
So for a kid this young an impressive first impression. 

[nate82]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Obviously a tiny sample, but Braylon Payne has five singles, five RBI, four stolen bags, three runs scored, two walks, a double and a triple over his first three games as the youngest player in the Carolina League.

His 583/643/833 triple slash shakes out to a 315 wRC+.

I have always wanted a Deion Sanders type of a player.  Hopefully Payne is this type of a player.