Trade Deadline hindsight

[jay87shot]

Looking at other trades that went down who do you feel we missed out on?

For me with prices so high on arms I think we missed out on not trading an arm. I doubt Hoby or Payamps would have gotten a huge return but either should have gotten 2 at least interesting pieces.

1) The overall price the Cardinals paid for Fedde was insanely low. Just Edman, the overall package the Sox got for Fedde, Kopech, and Pham was less than what I thought we could/would offer.

2)Isaac Paredes for Morel was a steal for the Cubs. Even if Paredes regressive some I think getting rid of Morel was huge for them. Paredes could have helped at 1st and 3rd (with Ortiz struggling) and taken over 3rd next year for a relatively low price.

3)Civale deal was great, even though he hasn't been great I would say we got him for a lot less than if the Ray's waited until the deadline. (I like the Mears deal a bunch as well especially after watching him throw).

4)Amed Rosario for a 27 year old with a 5 era in AAA seems like a great deal (maybe the reliever has a bigger arm than I am thinking) Rosario would have been a really nice bench piece.

[Scooterfletcher]

Ehh, I bet Fedde busts in Aug/Sept but we will see.  Rosario would have been an ok add but I don’t think we seemed backup if help.  Morel homered today and Tampa usually wins deals so not sure we wanted to do a 3 for 1 with them.   We are gonna end up looking just fine I reckon.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This deadline was a stinker - Flaherty was the one arm obviously available via trade I was hoping the Brewers would find a way to acquire but if there's legit back injury concern with him currently I get not getting too aggressive to land him.

With the extra wildcard teams, the time to make hay via trade seems to be even moreso during the offseason.

[Lathund]

Paredes batted ball profile, combined with the switch to Wrigley, will see his power numbers drop a lot. He's still a good player, and a 3B is much better fit for them than a DH like Morel. But it's not a "steal", It's an interesting trade, with Paredes being one of the biggest outperformers of his xwOBA and Morel being one of the biggest underperformers. And they've both done so for quite some time. It's not surprising to see the Rays on the analytical side of the trade and the Cubs on the traditional side (See, for example, them signing Neris and re-signing Bellinger for two recent examples). I'll take the Rays side for overall outcome, but again the positional/timing fit works for the Cubs so I think both sides will end up fairly happy. 

Edman for Fedde is also a lot closer in value than you suggest, assuming Edman is healthy. Admittedly a big if after missing so much time, but he's a good player and Fedde is more likely to have his future ERA match his current peripherals than to continue as it has. Which is still a solid mid-rotation starter, but not too dissimilar in value from a healthy Edman. 

As for the Brewers, I really like the Civale and Mears trades. The Montas one I'm less enthused about. I don't mind giving up Junis and Wiemer, both had marginal value, I just wish they had aimed a little bit higher. I don't see what Montas really offers, it's not like he's been performing well and getting unlucky. I'm sure they see something, I just don't get what. 

[Playing Catch]

Before the deadline, I think many of us believed the likeliest outcome was that the Brewers would acquire two inning-eating style starters and a bullpen arm, with an outside chance at a bat. We also wanted to somehow keep most of our good prospects, if possible.

With that in mind, the deadline was fine. I would have liked to pick up a lefty stick, but I'm not sure there were many out there to be had. I like Means as the prospect cost wasn't that significant, if indeed Means is a high-leverage guy controllable for years. I believe the Brewers will trade Devin in the offseason, so they will need some high leverage guys. Considering the prospect cost of Kikuchi, Civale was a steal. If Montas gets back to the pitcher he was in Oakland, his cost too, will be insignificant barring Wiemer turning into Torii Hunter.

I think the worst part of the deadline was the Cardinals getting Fedde for cheap -- although I think Edman has a lot more value than a lot of people think.

[wntrtxn21]

The Brewers' two biggest rivals, Cardinals and cubs, clearly improved while Milwaukee went dumpster diving for Montas. After Mears' latest performance, I don't know if he's much help either.  I didn't expect Arnold would do much to improve the club by the deadline and he certainly met my expectations. I will say I don't know if any deal the Brewers could have made would have helped their meager chance at making the W.S. (although Paredes's bat would have looked mighty nice in the middle of the Brewers batting order instead of the cubs).

[LouisEly]

On 7/31/2024 at 12:29 PM, jay87shot said:

For me with prices so high on arms I think we missed out on not trading an arm. I doubt Hoby or Payamps would have gotten a huge return but either should have gotten 2 at least interesting pieces

Might have been the plan, but Megill, Hudson, and Zastryzny going on the IL may have squashed that plan. 

I'm glad they didn't make any big trades.  Not the year to go all-in.  If Yelich was healthy, if there was a chance Woodruff could make it back this season, if Gasser wasn't out for the year, I might feel differently, but seems like this is a year to just sneak in and see if they can get lucky.  Maybe the Phils and Dodgers will have a couple of key arms go down for the year.

[nate82]

11 minutes ago, wntrtxn21 said:

although Paredes's bat would have looked mighty nice in the middle of the Brewers batting order instead of the cubs

Do you think Adames is a good middle of the order bat?

 

There really wasn’t a replacement for Yelich at the trade deadline.  I am not sure why some think there was someone to replace him.  Robert was probably the only one who could provide you with Yelich like performance available.  The other option Vlad was never an option as the Jays never made him available.

The question is then do you give up the prospects for Robert given his injury history?  

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

Might have been the plan, but Megill, Hudson, and Zastryzny going on the IL may have squashed that plan. 

I'm glad they didn't make any big trades.  Not the year to go all-in.  If Yelich was healthy, if there was a chance Woodruff could make it back this season, if Gasser wasn't out for the year, I might feel differently, but seems like this is a year to just sneak in and see if they can get lucky.  Maybe the Phils and Dodgers will have a couple of key arms go down for the year.

I'd have done a Quero+Mis type trade for Skubal, but short of something like that, a multi-year ace, I wouldn't have wanted to give up a Pratt, Bitonti type for Flaherty or another short-term upgrade.

and I'd have been sick about trading that type of talent anyway. It does seem to me like this is the first year of this new window that's opening. 

In fact, looking at what the Pads gave up, I'd have considered trading Williams had he been healthy or yielded the same type of return. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

 I wouldn't have wanted to give up a Pratt, Bitonti type for Flaherty or another short-term upgrade.

and I'd have been sick about trading that type of talent anyway. It does seem to me like this is the first year of this new window that's opening. 

 

Something that needs to be kept in mind, for sure. Fortunately the decision-makers did. I also agree with @LouisElythat they may have been toying with the idea of dealing from the BP before the injuries swept in.

[MNBrew]

On 8/1/2024 at 4:27 PM, BrewerFan said:

I'd have done a Quero+Mis type trade for Skubal, but short of something like that, a multi-year ace, I wouldn't have wanted to give up a Pratt, Bitonti type for Flaherty or another short-term upgrade.

and I'd have been sick about trading that type of talent anyway. It does seem to me like this is the first year of this new window that's opening. 

In fact, looking at what the Pads gave up, I'd have considered trading Williams had he been healthy or yielded the same type of return. 

That might be a reasonably good deal for Skukbal, as good as he currently is.  That said, I think Skubal was never going to be available and all the chatter was purely the media's speculative creation (great player + playing for a bad team = "must be available" deal to be made).

The formula's logical, but not the automatic all the pundits wanted to think.  It's like the years when everyone figured the Brewers would trade Burnes, Woodruff, Fielder, etc.:  The Brewers would listen, but that's all they intended to do & thus not the same as them trying to trade those guys.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, MNBrew said:

That might be a reasonably good deal for Skukbal, as good as he currently is.  That said, I think Skubal was never going to be available and all the chatter was purely the media's speculative creation (great player + playing for a bad team = "must be available" deal to be made).

The formula's logical, but not the automatic all the pundits wanted to think.  It's like the years when everyone figured the Brewers would trade Burnes, Woodruff, Fielder, etc.:  The Brewers would listen, but that's all they intended to do & thus not the same as them trying to trade those guys.

I don't know what would have gotten it done or if we'd have even made that offer(I was kinda starting with Mis and Quero, I think it's a given you'd have to add a couple more prospects), I was just saying hypothetically, that's the only player I'd have wanted to give up substantial prospects for. I think the Brewers have approached each player differently. They never seemed to plan on trading Prince as that was their first time back in the playoffs in '08 and then doubled down on trading FOR Grienke and Marcum.

Others like Gomez, Lucroy or even Hader, Burnes, they've traded. 

[nate82]

Rumors for Skubal were that the Tigers were asking for a whole MLB team for him.  Other MLB exec's were overly frustrated with the Tigers GM for his asking price for Skubal.

Skubal was never available at a reasonable price.  He probably won't be available this off season either. 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Rumors for Skubal were that the Tigers were asking for a whole MLB team for him.  Other MLB exec's were overly frustrated with the Tigers GM for his asking price for Skubal.

Skubal was never available at a reasonable price.  He probably won't be available this off season either. 

I'd imagine it'd be like Burnes with 2.5 years left. Remember the deals people were throwing out on here? Even with 2 years left, it was Grayson Rodriguez+Jackson Holliday+? 

There were some big returns proposed...for Burnes, Hader. 

[nate82]

16 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I'd imagine it'd be like Burnes with 2.5 years left. Remember the deals people were throwing out on here? Even with 2 years left, it was Grayson Rodriguez+Jackson Holliday+? 

There were some big returns proposed...for Burnes, Hader. 

Except this was a GM asking for a ton.  Difference between fans making proposals and actual GM’s who have to deal with other GM’s.

The ask was extremely high like Holliday, Mayo, Povich and more.  That was just to start the conversation with the Tigers.

[jay87shot]

I live in Michigan, if the Detriot GM trades Skubel they will fully lose the fan-base. For them to trade Skubel they would need to get a Soto haul or better. The Tigers should have money to extend him.

Depending on his rehab I would be really interested in Sandy Alcantara. The Marlins probably wouldn't trade him on cheap but with the guys they added maybe we could build a package around Black.

Maybe Pablo Lopez could be available depending on the Twins finances. He hasn't been great but advanced stats show a better pitcher. He probably would be as expensive as other top starters and his stuff is still excellent.

Is this the offseason to trade Yeli? At 33 next year he still likely has a couple good years left if the back holds. He would likely be the 2nd best bat available so we could capitalize on a weaker position player market. I get he would have to approve a deal but it could happen especially if we push him hard on playing 1st and he puts his foot down.

[Playing Catch]

16 hours ago, nate82 said:

Other MLB exec's were overly frustrated with the Tigers GM for his asking price for Skubal.

Would they be less frustrated if he just hung up the phone?

[Playing Catch]

So much of the chatter is driven by journalists and agents. Teams do their due diligence and the agent can't wait for Joel Sherman to write that the Yankees and Mets are talking about getting Skubal.

[BrewerFan]

15 hours ago, nate82 said:

Except this was a GM asking for a ton.  Difference between fans making proposals and actual GM’s who have to deal with other GM’s.

The ask was extremely high like Holliday, Mayo, Povich and more.  That was just to start the conversation with the Tigers.

You don't think the Brewers were asking for a ton for Burnes with 2.5 years left?

I'd suspect they were. 

[nate82]

28 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

You don't think the Brewers were asking for a ton for Burnes with 2.5 years left?

I'd suspect they were. 

They weren't.  They told other GM's he wasn't available.  Burnes didn't come onto the market until this past off season.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

They weren't.  They told other GM's he wasn't available.  Burnes didn't come onto the market until this past off season.

Yeah, he wasn't available until he was...shockingly. 

He's been in trade talks since 2018 with Machado. This past off-season Attanasio was saying they were keeping Burnes(in December).

Stearns didn't say 'you're always listening,' about a dozen times? You think they wouldn't have "made him available," if Holliday and Rodriguez was actually offered?

Of course he was. He wasn't traded until they got what they wanted for him. That's it. If we wouldn't have traded Hader, the reports would have been the Brewers "didn't make him available." 

 

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Is this the offseason to trade Yeli? At 33 next year he still likely has a couple good years left if the back holds. He would likely be the 2nd best bat available so we could capitalize on a weaker position player market. I get he would have to approve a deal but it could happen especially if we push him hard on playing 1st and he puts his foot down.

Probably not. He's either missing the rest of the year, or he comes back and then has back surgery and tries to rehab in the off-season. 

Either way, I'm not sure there's going to be a lot of demand for him. And then you'd still need him to agree either way as he's 10/5 guy...and I think he's got a NTC. 

I think last year would have been the year to trade him...if they could have managed to deal with the NTC and find a team willing to take back the salary and I don't think they ever actually did. 

[Scooterfletcher]

Looking back at this thread, I still am ok with what we did.   Yes, Mears isn’t ready for a pressure set up role as of yet but I do like the arm and the control.   When factoring in a possible Devin trade in the offseason, getting this guy now rather than paying a Junis type 1/7 is fine.

Montas is showing leadership and guts imo.   He seems like he is taking on a Wade Miley type role that the starting staff needed.  Wiemer is showing to be a nothing loss and if anything it might be nice that we don’t afford him opportunities on our squad anymore and simply move on (I don’t mean for that to sound harsh like it might).

Im very happy we didn’t overpay for Fedde.   The last two days of the deadline it appeared it might be us or the cards as the final two for Fedde.   Glad he went there and we kept our prospects by and large and solved our rotation spot with Montas (who I’d look into potentially resigning at a contract closer to half his 2024 salary next year).

To win the division this year without sacrificing prime prospects, this was a good deadline.

 

[biedergb]

All I can ask is that the team stops trading for relief pitchers at the deadline.

2021 - Curtiss and Norris. Oof. Lost a very good pitcher in the process, and received little value

2022 - Hader trade aside - which was US trading a RP.  But Bush and Rosenthal. Big whiffs 

2023 - Chafin. Adding no value 

2024 - Mears, looking to be a little to no value and cost a couple of decent pitchers.

Best relievers have been added via waiver or smaller trades (Megill, Payamps, Peguero, Hudson; and Feyereisen, Cousins, etc on the past).

I would have to look back to see the last good reliever that was acquired at the trade deadline for this club.

most trade deadline acquisitions have been duds since 2018 and 2019 (Pomeranz and Lyles were surprising upgrades), but relievers have been a major major miss. And in the process lost prospects like A. Kelly, R. Olson, Blalock/Herrera among others who would be good to have in the roster or for other trades.

 

EDIT: for disclosure I made this post and then I saw this article pop up on my google page (probably because I had been searching for info on trade deadline brewers and relievers to research this post).

But I did not see this before posting. No intent on plagiarizing the idea, as I just read it now - so this is more of a coincidence.

article link : https://reviewingthebrew.com/posts/the-curse-of-the-milwaukee-brewers-trade-deadline-reliever-continues-01j5y52nj0pr

[Team Canada]

The overall point notwithstanding, Mears is different than the other deadline deals in that it was for a pitcher with a lot of control left, not random veteran rental. Much more of long term deal that happened to take place at the deadline.