Trade Deadline hindsight

[LouisEly]

14 hours ago, biedergb said:

And in the process lost prospects like A. Kelly

Reminder that Kelly was designated for assignment back in early July.  He is not a prospect.

[biedergb]

8 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Reminder that Kelly was designated for assignment back in early July.  He is not a prospect.

Understood. But he was a prospect and could have been involved in another trade. His fortunes could have been different here. I know a lot of what ifs. Still with how Bush and really any of the relievers we traded for have turned out I’d rather have traded for another player or no one at all.

I will say 2021 I was on board with but it did feel losing Olson was going to be a tough one .

2022 made no sense at all. Although I will say that I actually liked the Kelly for Bush swap as I saw Bush as what Kelly could be. And I guess in a sense I was right - both non factors and DFA’d.

But Chafin and Mears seemed like stretches. And Mears looks like an overpay.

[sveumrules]

On 8/1/2024 at 2:33 PM, wntrtxn21 said:

The Brewers' two biggest rivals, Cardinals and cubs, clearly improved while Milwaukee went dumpster diving for Montas

The Brewers are 14 W - 7 L since the trade deadline, with four of those wins coming in Montas starts.

Cubs have mostly kept pace at 13 W - 7 L, but the Cardinals 8 W - 13 L is pretty ugly for a “clearly improved” club.

The Brewers division lead has grown from five up on STL in 2nd place entering the month to 10.5 up on CHC in 2nd place currently.

[jay87shot]

For me, it will come down to the playoffs on the Montas trade. We have been great since acquiring him but really it is that the rest of the division is struggling. We have seen a better version of Frankie and if we can get even 1 good start from him in the playoffs the addition of Weimer will be passable. 

 

[Brian]

Buck Showalter was on MLB Network this morning and said that he would like to see every team get One "Mulligan Trade" in September before the playoffs start.  Because....

"You would hate to see a playoff team work hard all year and have a crucial injury in September and lose everything."  I knd of like that idea. 

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, Brian said:

Buck Showalter was on MLB Network this morning and said that he would like to see every team get One "Mulligan Trade" in September before the playoffs start.  Because....

"You would hate to see a playoff team work hard all year and have a crucial injury in September and lose everything."  I knd of like that idea. 

It would sure add some drama. For the non-playoff teams as well.

[jay87shot]

2 hours ago, Brian said:

Buck Showalter was on MLB Network this morning and said that he would like to see every team get One "Mulligan Trade" in September before the playoffs start.  Because....

"You would hate to see a playoff team work hard all year and have a crucial injury in September and lose everything."  I knd of like that idea. 

I love this idea, I would maybe put a restriction where it has to be a 1 for 1 (allow comp picks or int. money) trade. I just wouldn't want someone to get a superstar that isn't replacing an injury. I wouldnt want the Dodgers or someone trading for a superstar shortstop this late. If it was just any old trade allowed I could it benefitting big budget teams because they could acquire a big salary guy later and skirt the salary barriers easier.

[BrewerFan]

On 8/24/2024 at 11:23 PM, Team Canada said:

The overall point notwithstanding, Mears is different than the other deadline deals in that it was for a pitcher with a lot of control left, not random veteran rental. Much more of long term deal that happened to take place at the deadline.

Yes, I'm not including Mears into the "curse" of the Brewers deadline relievers. 

I'm completely confident he will come back and pitch at a very high level if not this year, next year(most likely next year). He's got elite stuff. 

Give him a little time with the Brewers. Time for them to work with him and get him going, he'll be fine. The trades I disliked the most, I was still wrong about. I didn't like Reece Olson trade, but I NEVER thought he'd be a 3.14 FIP/#2/3 starter type. Love to have him back. The other I really hated was the Bush trade and Antoine Kelly has been bad. So I was wrong there. The rest? Meh. 

I also liked Herrera, but the Brewers are pretty good about this. I just saw a 21-year-old who looks like he's still got room to add to that frame and is already hitting 97, but I really didn't see him much. 

You're REALLY searching to find area's to critique the Brewers front office with regard to pitching at this point. Imagine you said we're going to get a multi-inning reliever, a lefty who can throw 97-98, has NASTY breaking balls and is actually capable of being a Hader-like weapon in the post-season?

What would you have given up for that?

[Underachiever]

On 9/2/2024 at 6:24 AM, Brian said:

Buck Showalter was on MLB Network this morning and said that he would like to see every team get One "Mulligan Trade" in September before the playoffs start.  Because....

"You would hate to see a playoff team work hard all year and have a crucial injury in September and lose everything."  I knd of like that idea. 

No, just no. Teams would find a way to game it. Is it only for an injury that happens in September? Or anything after the trade deadline? And why only one?

Every team out of the playoffs would look at their list of players about to become a free agent and get something for them if they could. Because they could turn around and re-sign the free agent in November. If the Giants offered you Blake Snell because he's an impending free agent, would you put your fifth starter on the injured list and send a lottery ticket to SF? If Monasterio got "hurt", could the Brewers work a trade for Matt Chapman? Can you imagine the commissioner's office defining "crucial"? Woodruff's injury was announced on October 2,  the eve of the playoffs. Would you allow the Brewers to make a trade at that point? Could the Mets dump Pete Alonso if they fell out of the wild card and then re-sign him as a free agent in a month, essentially renting him to another team? Another Dickie Noles being traded for a PTBNL that turned out to be...Dickie Noles.

I hate this. 

Apologies if I misunderstood what Showalter was proposing.

[Brian]

32 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

No, just no. Teams would find a way to game it. Is it only for an injury that happens in September? Or anything after the trade deadline? And why only one?

Every team out of the playoffs would look at their list of players about to become a free agent and get something for them if they could. Because they could turn around and re-sign the free agent in November. If the Giants offered you Blake Snell because he's an impending free agent, would you put your fifth starter on the injured list and send a lottery ticket to SF? If Monasterio got "hurt", could the Brewers work a trade for Matt Chapman? Can you imagine the commissioner's office defining "crucial"? Woodruff's injury was announced on October 2,  the eve of the playoffs. Would you allow the Brewers to make a trade at that point? Could the Mets dump Pete Alonso if they fell out of the wild card and then re-sign him as a free agent in a month, essentially renting him to another team? Another Dickie Noles being traded for a PTBNL that turned out to be...Dickie Noles.

I hate this. 

Apologies if I misunderstood what Showalter was proposing.

It was just a 3 or 4 minute bit/thought on MLB Network by Showalter, but you did not misunderstand what he proposed. I agree teams would game it somehow and I believe it was every team. 

[sveumrules]

At the deadline seemed like a lot of people thought the Cardinals stole Fedde giving up only Edman, but here we are now and STL went 3 W - 7 L in Fedde's 10 starts and Edman just won NLCS MVP.

[Playing Catch]

Yeah, even at the time, I thought Edman was about the most perfect piece that was available for the Dodgers.

We often casually eschew the value of a proven big leaguer in favor of the shiny, controllable prospect. This is true when considering a Devin Williams trade as well. For a team that is competing, putting a good player on the field is always a good thing, and it may be preferable to taking on the development risk of the unproven player.

Edit to add:  This is not to say that for the Cardinals, giving up Edman wasn't preferable to giving up a prospect. Every situation is different.

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Yeah, even at the time, I thought Edman was about the most perfect piece that was available for the Dodgers.

Agreed. With one more year of team control over Edman at $9.5M, plus a $5M team option on Rojas coming off a 111 wRC+ | 2.8 WAR season, I’d probably put the Dodgers behind both the Giants and Braves among the potential Adames destinations.

[Brewin]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Agreed. With one more year of team control over Edman at $9.5M, plus a $5M team option on Rojas coming off a 111 wRC+ | 2.8 WAR season, I’d probably put the Dodgers behind both the Giants and Braves among the potential Adames destinations.

I understand your point with the Dodgers, but not the Braves. The Braves let Swanson walk a couple of years ago, so they are unlikely to pay Adames IMO. I've felt for a while SF is the most likely landing spot for Willy

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, Brewin said:

I understand your point with the Dodgers, but not the Braves. The Braves let Swanson walk a couple of years ago, so they are unlikely to pay Adames IMO. I've felt for a while SF is the most likely landing spot for Willy

Agreed. The Giants just signed a very similar player in Matt Chapman and I think Buster Posey will be similarly aggressive this winter. I'd maybe have them at 40%.

Braves were in a lot stronger place organizationally when they let Dansby walk. The WS win was only one year ago instead of three. They also only got a 70 wRC+ (28th) and 0.7 WAR (26th) out of their shortstops last year so they have a little more desperation than the Dodgers. I'd say ATL (25%) and LAD (20%) which leaves 15% for the field or the always lurking mystery team.

My favorite dark horse to sign Willy is the Pirates. They have the money, they don't have a SS, and what better way to tell your fans you are serious about competing during the Skenes years than by signing the "team leader" away from the team that has dominated the NLC for the last four years he's been here.

 

[jay87shot]

7 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Yeah, even at the time, I thought Edman was about the most perfect piece that was available for the Dodgers.

We often casually eschew the value of a proven big leaguer in favor of the shiny, controllable prospect. This is true when considering a Devin Williams trade as well. For a team that is competing, putting a good player on the field is always a good thing, and it may be preferable to taking on the development risk of the unproven player.

Edit to add:  This is not to say that for the Cardinals, giving up Edman wasn't preferable to giving up a prospect. Every situation is different.

I think for me the shock was how little the CWS got for Fedde, Kopech, and Pham. The Dodgers got a steal because they got Edman and Kopech who had a 1.13 ERA in 29 innings for them and he has a year of control as well.

I think the Adames suitors will be 1. Braves 2. Giants 3. Surprsie team like Seattle, Detriot, or Boston the Dodgers have a rotation hole or two they likely need to address before SS.

[StearnsFTW]

I think Detroit is the dark horse candidate.  He makes a ton of sense there.

[Playing Catch]

15 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

I think Detroit is the dark horse candidate.  He makes a ton of sense there.

Not arguing, but they may have had their fill of former NL central shortstops that won't perform to the level of the contract.