2024-25 Offseason Ideas

[brewers888]

With all of our bullpen depth doesn't a trade of Devin almost have to happen as long as we get good offers.

[jay87shot]

21 hours ago, brewers888 said:

With all of our bullpen depth doesn't a trade of Devin almost have to happen as long as we get good offers.

I think so, we probably should trade 3 or 4 relievers just so we aren't losing guys for nothing when it comes to it. In my opinion, Wilson, Hoby, and Devin should be traded and then maybe one of Peguero or Payamps.

If we lose Devin we have Megill, Hudson, Koenig, maybe Ashby, Hall, Peguero, Payamps, Mears, Yoho, Uribe, and others as late inning potential arms. We likely will also claim a vet or two as reclamation projects.  There are going to be multiple big market teams in need of a closer and a weak market in terms of high end relief options, I think we should find it easy to start a bidding war for Devin. Not only would a trade give us likely 3 nice pieces in return but it would give us a little wiggle room to add a free agent or two.

[jay87shot]

Someone brought up Rhys to the Yankees before, what would you all think about packaging Rhys and Devin? We could take back some salary (not Giancarlo or Lemehieu) and get a prospect or 2. We could then maybe look at a 1st baseman in free agency or a trade. Christian Walker would be nice, I'd have at least some interest in Paul Goldschmidt, maybe Pete Alonso on a Matt Chapman like deal late in the offseason. Yandy Diaz would be a solid trade candidate.

I get that adding Rhys takes away from some of Devin's value but if we could upgrade 1st base in the process that would be big. Maybe just Rhys to NYY would like Rhys and Peguero get us like Nestor Cortez and a mid-tier prospect make some sense?

[NOMAAM]

On 9/8/2024 at 3:51 PM, brewers888 said:

With all of our bullpen depth doesn't a trade of Devin almost have to happen as long as we get good offers.

Kinda curious what a Devin Williams extension would look like.  Still awfully young and doubt one would hurt his trade value.

[wntrtxn21]

5 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Someone brought up Rhys to the Yankees before, what would you all think about packaging Rhys and Devin? We could take back some salary (not Giancarlo or Lemehieu) and get a prospect or 2. We could then maybe look at a 1st baseman in free agency or a trade. Christian Walker would be nice, I'd have at least some interest in Paul Goldschmidt, maybe Pete Alonso on a Matt Chapman like deal late in the offseason. Yandy Diaz would be a solid trade candidate.

I get that adding Rhys takes away from some of Devin's value but if we could upgrade 1st base in the process that would be big. Maybe just Rhys to NYY would like Rhys and Peguero get us like Nestor Cortez and a mid-tier prospect make some sense?

I just don't see the Yankees having any interest in Hoskins, unless as you said, packaged with Williams which really downgrades the return. Hoskins is hitting a whopping .208 with a .292 OBP. Negative 20 runs better than average and a negative dWAR. I think the Brewers are stuck with Hoskins unless they take on an equally horrible contract and then why do it. Right now I don't think you'd get a used bag of balls for Peguero and Hoskins. 

[jay87shot]

25 minutes ago, wntrtxn21 said:

I just don't see the Yankees having any interest in Hoskins, unless as you said, packaged with Williams which really downgrades the return. Hoskins is hitting a whopping .208 with a .292 OBP. Negative 20 runs better than average and a negative dWAR. I think the Brewers are stuck with Hoskins unless they take on an equally horrible contract and then why do it. Right now I don't think you'd get a used bag of balls for Peguero and Hoskins. 

Yeah, I agree. The Yankees would probably just pay one of those free agents or trade candidates for 1st before Hoskins. It would be nice to upgrade 1st and have a young athletic lineup 1-9. Hoskins isn't the worst just so streaky, maybe he can get back to form a year remove from the injury.

[tmwiese55]

Think we just have to hope year 2 after the injury leads to a bounceback for him. I can't imagine anyone wants him right now, best case would be a straight salary dump and I'd still guess the other team makes us eat money. 

Obviously some guys get hurt and never bounce back, but there has been plenty in many sports who struggle initially then a year or two later are at least close to what they were. Think all we can do is hope he's one of those guys. From what we can see on TV he does seem to care, trying, has a good attitude so I'd bet he's very motivated in the offseason to not suck again (plus of course he's a FA after next year so wants a payday).

Kind of hurts that Yeli might be so heavy on DH next year too which is where both should be, and Contreras needs games at DH too. Bit of a logjam, but hey at least the owner tried to win and wasn't cheap!!!

[TURBO]

4 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Think we just have to hope year 2 after the injury leads to a bounceback for him. I can't imagine anyone wants him right now, best case would be a straight salary dump and I'd still guess the other team makes us eat money. 

Obviously some guys get hurt and never bounce back, but there has been plenty in many sports who struggle initially then a year or two later are at least close to what they were. Think all we can do is hope he's one of those guys. From what we can see on TV he does seem to care, trying, has a good attitude so I'd bet he's very motivated in the offseason to not suck again (plus of course he's a FA after next year so wants a payday).

Kind of hurts that Yeli might be so heavy on DH next year too which is where both should be, and Contreras needs games at DH too. Bit of a logjam, but hey at least the owner tried to win and wasn't cheap!!!

 

[Jopal78]

On 9/10/2024 at 10:37 AM, NOMAAM said:

Kinda curious what a Devin Williams extension would look like.  Still awfully young and doubt one would hurt his trade value.

What did Hader get from Houston? Why would Williams even consider anything less than that (5yrs/95 million). 
 

With the reluctance teams show in trading blue chip minor league talent; I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers simply kept Williams for ‘25 and made him a Q.O. 

[wiguy94]

20 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

What did Hader get from Houston? Why would Williams even consider anything less than that (5yrs/95 million). 
 

With the reluctance teams show in trading blue chip minor league talent; I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers simply kept Williams for ‘25 and made him a Q.O. 

I feel pretty confident the Brewers will trade Devin this offseason especially considering he did have multiple stress fractures in his back that made him miss multiple months this year. He gets injured next year and you can kiss that QO goodbye.

[Playing Catch]

I agree with Jopal's point that teams are increasingly reluctant to trade significant assets, though. It's very possible that the potential returns for Williams are underwhelming to such a degree that keeping him is better for the Brewers.

[jay87shot]

On 9/10/2024 at 11:37 AM, NOMAAM said:

Kinda curious what a Devin Williams extension would look like.  Still awfully young and doubt one would hurt his trade value.

My guess is that he will get around Hader/Diaz 6/100 million on the open market. I doubt we can pay a reliever anywhere close to that with the long term commitments we do have and some of the young guys we hope to keep.

[jay87shot]

What is the order of guys that we/you all would like to extend this summer. In my opinion the list is huge but if we get some deals done now it could prolong our contention period if we pick the right guys. The numbers I am proposing are off the top of my head so any 

1)Turang (6/35-40 2 team option(s)) With the superb defense and improvement at the plate, I think Turang is the least risky extension, 

2)Ortiz (6/30-35 team option(s)) Basically the same as Turang, it would be nice to have a double play tandem cheap long term.

3)Frelick/Mitchell (6/30ish) Each of these are riskier with Mitchell's injuries and Sal's power but I could see each being cheaper because of that

4)Myers, Megill, Hudson other pitchers (Civale, Rae, Koenig, Hall)   If any of these were cheaper like Ashby's deal I could see a pitcher extension. However all of our pitchers do have some regression risk so it is probably smarter to wait a year. I would mind something like 2/16 or 3/24 on a guy like Civale if that was an agreeable amount.

5) Contreras   If it was just desire I would put William #1, however with 3 solid years in I doubt we get much of a discount and with Quero hurt it buys us another year to see what Jefferson will become. Basically put off the catcher decision 1 more year. With 3 years of control maybe a 5/70-6/90 year deal could make some sense for both sides. However my though is he will want more like 8/150 which would be tough.

 

[Lloyd330]

Spencer Horwitz is someone i would like to target in a trade with the Bluejays. Would play 1B and has two more years of Arbitration and would fit nice with the rest of the team. 

[Lloyd330]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

What is the order of guys that we/you all would like to extend this summer. In my opinion the list is huge but if we get some deals done now it could prolong our contention period if we pick the right guys. The numbers I am proposing are off the top of my head so any 

1)Turang (6/35-40 2 team option(s)) With the superb defense and improvement at the plate, I think Turang is the least risky extension, 

2)Ortiz (6/30-35 team option(s)) Basically the same as Turang, it would be nice to have a double play tandem cheap long term.

3)Frelick/Mitchell (6/30ish) Each of these are riskier with Mitchell's injuries and Sal's power but I could see each being cheaper because of that

4)Myers, Megill, Hudson other pitchers (Civale, Rae, Koenig, Hall)   If any of these were cheaper like Ashby's deal I could see a pitcher extension. However all of our pitchers do have some regression risk so it is probably smarter to wait a year. I would mind something like 2/16 or 3/24 on a guy like Civale if that was an agreeable amount.

5) Contreras   If it was just desire I would put William #1, however with 3 solid years in I doubt we get much of a discount and with Quero hurt it buys us another year to see what Jefferson will become. Basically put off the catcher decision 1 more year. With 3 years of control maybe a 5/70-6/90 year deal could make some sense for both sides. However my though is he will want more like 8/150 which would be tough.

 

With Contreras, he doesn't have much leverage at all. Does anyone have any estimates on what the Arbitrations numbers could look like? I say you offer 6/75 with play obtion in last year 5/10/10/15/15/20. 

[jay87shot]

29 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

With Contreras, he doesn't have much leverage at all. Does anyone have any estimates on what the Arbitrations numbers could look like? I say you offer 6/75 with play obtion in last year 5/10/10/15/15/20. 

My thought was 5/10/15 and then 20-25 million after. He looks like a perennial 4-6 WAR player so my guess is that 20 would be a discount but he is probably looking like a 25-30 million a year guy when he hits the open market.

[jay87shot]

40 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

Spencer Horwitz is someone i would like to target in a trade with the Bluejays. Would play 1B and has two more years of Arbitration and would fit nice with the rest of the team. 

I like Horwitz a lot as well. He is a bit small for 1st but no different than Black. He has some versitility playing some 2B and OF in the minors. He would be a great upgrade over Bauers if Black isn't a defensive 1B. If the Jays sign Vladdy long term a deal would make a lot of sense especially with Will Wagner playing well there. Black (plays OF for them) for Horwitz and a younger upside prospect (like Kendry Rojas) would be an interesting trade.

[endaround]

26 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

With Contreras, he doesn't have much leverage at all. Does anyone have any estimates on what the Arbitrations numbers could look like? I say you offer 6/75 with play obtion in last year 5/10/10/15/15/20. 

Arbitration tends to be 20%/40%/60% of free agent value. If you assume then that a Contreras projects at a 4 win catcher that is like $8m/$16m/$24m.  A 5 win catcher and its $10m/$20m/$30m.  Now catchers due tend to get underpriced, but $50m for his 3 arbitration years sounds reasonable.

[TURBO]

I have no interest in extending Frelick or Mitchell.

Frelick because we can surely do better, and Mitchell because of the injury factor.  Mitchell needs to play a full season before even considering any kind of extension.

[BrewerFan]

On 9/10/2024 at 7:45 AM, jay87shot said:

Someone brought up Rhys to the Yankees before, what would you all think about packaging Rhys and Devin? We could take back some salary (not Giancarlo or Lemehieu) and get a prospect or 2. We could then maybe look at a 1st baseman in free agency or a trade. Christian Walker would be nice, I'd have at least some interest in Paul Goldschmidt, maybe Pete Alonso on a Matt Chapman like deal late in the offseason. Yandy Diaz would be a solid trade candidate.

I get that adding Rhys takes away from some of Devin's value but if we could upgrade 1st base in the process that would be big. Maybe just Rhys to NYY would like Rhys and Peguero get us like Nestor Cortez and a mid-tier prospect make some sense?

I don't see why the Yankees are giving up a decent pitcher, a guy with a sub-4 FIP and ERA for a guy who's a poor defender(which is a big issue for them) and someone we don't want.

I say we just run it back with Hoskins. He's been good enough that he's not a huge albatross(though...we obviously wouldn't pay for this level of production) but he's a good enough hitter and it's one more year.

So it's not like he's Jackie Bradley Jr. Just hold onto him for another year, OR...you trade him and maybe you package a Peguero, but for two mid level prospects. I don't think you're getting a #3/4 starting pitcher back. 

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

I have no interest in extending Frelick or Mitchell.

Frelick because we can surely do better, and Mitchell because of the injury factor.  Mitchell needs to play a full season before even considering any kind of extension.

I hear you, I still have hope in Sal becoming a .300 hitter and think Mitchell has some 30/30 potential but both are risky and cheap enough that waiting is smart.

[TURBO]

I have no fancy-pants stats to back this up, but I am expecting Hoskins to be a lot better next year.  He'll have a full year behind him since the injury, so I can see him being a lot better than this year.  (Granted, it wouldn't take much for that to happen...)

[nate82]

5 hours ago, TURBO said:

I have no fancy-pants stats to back this up, but I am expecting Hoskins to be a lot better next year.  He'll have a full year behind him since the injury, so I can see him being a lot better than this year.  (Granted, it wouldn't take much for that to happen...)

I am not sure how much better Hoskins will be next year but it probably won't be all that much.

I think next year something like a slash line of .230/.330/.450 should be doable.  Is that an improvement over this year?  Yes but that is still a rather uninspiring primary DH numbers.  Hoskins should be a DH only right now as his 1B defense is basically just a broom with a glove.

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, TURBO said:

I have no fancy-pants stats to back this up, but I am expecting Hoskins to be a lot better next year.  He'll have a full year behind him since the injury, so I can see him being a lot better than this year.  (Granted, it wouldn't take much for that to happen...)

I'm fully expecting Rhys to have a .800 OPS and near 30 HRs next year. 

I'll guess .240/.330/.480 30/90

He'll hit 5th or 6th with Chourio, Yelly, Contreras and I hope Turang ahead of him as the leadoff hitter, but he needs to be consistent offensively. 

 

On 9/10/2024 at 5:10 PM, tmwiese55 said:

Think we just have to hope year 2 after the injury leads to a bounceback for him. I can't imagine anyone wants him right now, best case would be a straight salary dump and I'd still guess the other team makes us eat money. 

I'd actually be really surprised if Hoskins couldn't get 14M next year.  For him to choose FA, he has to make at least that. He gets 4 either way. I think it's worth it to the Brewers to pay him 14M next year...not that it's up to them, but...he's a good hitter. You'll have a better-supporting case next year. Chourio all year, Yelly, no Adames, that sucks, but on balance, I'll take it. 

 

As for Williams...I don't know, I think you could find a team...say Philly doesn't win it, maybe they give you a couple of guys. This time last year I was looking at Rangers prospects for the same reason but they won. The Braves are another team, the Yankees...they have a bit of a Clay Holmes problem and they love stacking the pen(he may also be a FA). 

It's hard for me to envision Williams as a 20AAV closer, but...I'm not sure why. Everything tells you he is. 

 

[wiguy94]

33 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I'm fully expecting Rhys to have a .800 OPS and near 30 HRs next year. 

I'll guess .240/.330/.480 30/90

He'll hit 5th or 6th with Chourio, Yelly, Contreras and I hope Turang ahead of him as the leadoff hitter, but he needs to be consistent offensively. 

 

I'd actually be really surprised if Hoskins couldn't get 14M next year.  For him to choose FA, he has to make at least that. He gets 4 either way. I think it's worth it to the Brewers to pay him 14M next year...not that it's up to them, but...he's a good hitter. You'll have a better-supporting case next year. Chourio all year, Yelly, no Adames, that sucks, but on balance, I'll take it. 

 

As for Williams...I don't know, I think you could find a team...say Philly doesn't win it, maybe they give you a couple of guys. This time last year I was looking at Rangers prospects for the same reason but they won. The Braves are another team, the Yankees...they have a bit of a Clay Holmes problem and they love stacking the pen(he may also be a FA). 

It's hard for me to envision Williams as a 20AAV closer, but...I'm not sure why. Everything tells you he is. 

 

Hoskins, if he left, would be leaving $18M on the table not $14M. 2025 is $18M with a $4M buyout and then there’s another $4M buyout after the 2025 season. So that’s $18M. After the season Hoskins has had it would be pretty shocking for him to get $18M in FA. His underlying numbers are extremely poor and he’s been below replacement level on the year.