Adames and ‘older’ SS

[Frisbee Slider]

Lindor: $34 million, 4.6 WAR (age 30)

Correa: $33 million, 3.4 WAR (age 30)

Seager: $32 million, 4.1 WAR (age 30)

Turner: $27 million, 2.1 WAR (age 31)

Swanson: $25 million, 1.6 WAR (age 30)

Story: $23 million, 0.1 WAR (age 31)

Baez: $23 million, -1.4 WAR (age 31)

Adames: $12 million, 2.4 WAR (age 29)

I think it is a foregone conclusion that Adames is playing for a different team next year, especially if he wants five or more year contract.
 

Is there any reason Adames would accept five years at 125 million? What would he actually be worth to Milwaukee or someone else? We seem to have plenty of SS on our roster.

The Swanson contract seems like too much money for Swanson or Adames.

[sveumrules]

Dansby got 7/177 so I’m guessing Willy and camp will be shooting for 8/200.

Kind of funny thing is the big spending contender (outside of oft-rumored LAD) most in need of a SS is probably ATL who have gotten a 70 wRC+ (28th) and 0.5 WAR (26th) out of SS (mostly Arcia) this year.

Would think if they didn’t want to pony up for Dansby that they probably won’t want to spend similar money for Adames though.

Other team that could get in on the action is the Padres with Kim also hitting the market opening up SS.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'm fine with Ortiz sliding over to SS next year.  Adames has a ton of intangibles that make me want to keep him (ex. good clubhouse guy), but I'm worried about the defense.  His dropoff this year is significant and he is only getting older.

[edfunderburk]

25 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

I'm fine with Ortiz sliding over to SS next year.  Adames has a ton of intangibles that make me want to keep him (ex. good clubhouse guy), but I'm worried about the defense.  His dropoff this year is significant and he is only getting older.

I would (only) be interested in his return if he gets no action on a long-term deal from other teams (aka - last season’s Boras clients) & is willing to play on a one-year $25M contract

[TURBO]

40 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

I'm fine with Ortiz sliding over to SS next year. 

I see this all the time, why does everyone assume that Ortiz will be at SS next year?  I'm thinking it will be Turang at SS and Ortiz at 2B, assuming they bring in or up a legit 3B.

This isn't aimed at you ClosetBrewerFan.  I see a lot of posts that assume Ortiz will be at SS rather than Turang. 

[wiguy94]

Just now, TURBO said:

I see this all the time, why does everyone assume that Ortiz will be at SS next year?  I'm thinking it will be Turang at SS and Ortiz at 2B, assuming they bring in or up a legit 3B.

This isn't aimed at you ClosetBrewerFan.  I see a lot of posts that assume Ortiz will be at SS rather than Turang. 

Because Ortiz has been the person to slide to SS every time Adames has been removed from a game this year with Turang staying at 2B.

[TURBO]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

Because Ortiz has been the person to slide to SS every time Adames has been removed from a game this year with Turang staying at 2B.

Meh, that means nothing for 2025.

Wouldn't make any sense in those situations to move Turang to SS and Ortiz to 2B.  I view that as not disrupting the entire infield.  Easier to slide Ortiz to SS and leave Turang be, than to move everyone around.

In the long run, I view Turang as our everyday SS with Ortiz being the 2B or 3B depending on what moves we make in the off season for a 3B.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

Meh, that means nothing for 2025.

Wouldn't make any sense in those situations to move Turang to SS and Ortiz to 2B.  I view that as not disrupting the entire infield.  Easier to slide Ortiz to SS and leave Turang be, than to move everyone around.

In the long run, I view Turang as our everyday SS with Ortiz being the 2B or 3B depending on what moves we make in the off season for a 3B.

We've seen everyone in the outfield shift positions for defensive changes. Example Perkins comes in at CF, Frelick slides to RF, Chourio to LF.  Other reasons are Ortiz has a better arm and quicker transfer which are very important at the SS position.

[TURBO]

30 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

We've seen everyone in the outfield shift positions for defensive changes. Example Perkins comes in at CF, Frelick slides to RF, Chourio to LF.  Other reasons are Ortiz has a better arm and quicker transfer which are very important at the SS position.

We shall see in 2025...

 

[HarryDoyle]

Your better defensive middle infielder should really be at shortstop. Obviously Turang is a better defender than Ortiz.

[wiguy94]

18 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

Your better defensive middle infielder should really be at shortstop. Obviously Turang is a better defender than Ortiz.

Don't think that's obvious.

[HarryDoyle]

4 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Don't think that's obvious.

Then I don't know what to tell you. Not only is Turang a better defender than Ortiz, he's the best defender on the team period.

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

Then I don't know what to tell you. Not only is Turang a better defender than Ortiz, he's the best defender on the team period.

Well that's definitely not true. Perkins is the easily the best defender on the team.

[jay87shot]

4 hours ago, TURBO said:

I see this all the time, why does everyone assume that Ortiz will be at SS next year?  I'm thinking it will be Turang at SS and Ortiz at 2B, assuming they bring in or up a legit 3B.

This isn't aimed at you ClosetBrewerFan.  I see a lot of posts that assume Ortiz will be at SS rather than Turang. 

Both Turang and Ortiz were perceived as plus SS defensively. For me, it makes sense to keep Turang at second because then you have a plus SS and Gold glove 2B. Where if Turang is SS than you have an average 3B and plus SS. You could move Turang to short and Ortiz to 2B but that is a bit risky making 2 position changes. Basically Turang's defense is to valuable to risk making a move.

On top of that putting Ortiz at SS and 2B leaves 3rd open. Black, Boeve, and Wilken all could be the 3rd baseman of the future where our better 2B options are really in A ball (unless you are exceptionally high on Isaac Collins).

[Fear The Chorizo]

19 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Well that's definitely not true. Perkins is the easily the best defender on the team.

If you were to put Turang in the OF, he'd be rated a better OF defender than Perkins.  If Perkins would be moved to middle IF, my guess is he might not be a better infielder than Turang or Ortiz.

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

If you were to put Turang in the OF, he'd be rated a better OF defender than Perkins.  If Perkins would be moved to middle IF, my guess is he might not be a better infielder than Turang or Ortiz.

Turang going to the OF and being better than Perkins is a hilarious take. Thank you.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 8/11/2024 at 9:23 AM, Frisbee Slider said:

Lindor: $34 million, 4.6 WAR (age 30)

Correa: $33 million, 3.4 WAR (age 30)

Seager: $32 million, 4.1 WAR (age 30)

Turner: $27 million, 2.1 WAR (age 31)

Swanson: $25 million, 1.6 WAR (age 30)

Story: $23 million, 0.1 WAR (age 31)

Baez: $23 million, -1.4 WAR (age 31)

Adames: $12 million, 2.4 WAR (age 29)

I think it is a foregone conclusion that Adames is playing for a different team next year, especially if he wants five or more year contract.
 

Is there any reason Adames would accept five years at 125 million? What would he actually be worth to Milwaukee or someone else? We seem to have plenty of SS on our roster.

The Swanson contract seems like too much money for Swanson or Adames.

Why in the heck would the Brewers want to saddle themselves with a 5+ year contract to a good but not great middle infielder about to turn 30?  Just because of all these other comps they should consider throwing $25-$30M a year to keep Adames around??  They've got two other young players capable of playing SS everyday, and there seems to suddenly be a pile of 3B/SS options working their way up in the minors that could readily slide into MLB.

I look at this list of other "older" SS's who cashed in via free agency, and am thankful the Brewers currently don't have one of those contracts for that position.  I see injuries, performance declines (both offensively and defensively), and financial constraints that carrying a 2nd massive longterm position player contract would saddle the Brewers with.  Then I look at the multiple periods of even this season where Adames was an offensive black hole while slumping in the middle of the Brewers' batting order, confirming that his 2021 is his outlier season on the rosy end of the spectrum.  

Wishing Adames the best in free agency next offseason.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Turang going to the OF and being better than Perkins is a hilarious take. Thank you.

So is inserting Perkins into a discussion on the comparison between Ortiz and Turang as middle infield defense.  

What about Turang's defensive and physical profile makes you think he couldn't play great defense in the OF?  Is he too fast?

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

So is inserting Perkins into a discussion on the comparison between Ortiz and Turang as middle infield defense.  

What about Turang's defensive and physical profile makes you think he couldn't play great defense in the OF?  Is he too fast?

I inserted Perkins because someone incorrectly said Turang is the best defender on the team period. 

Blake Perkins - 1113 OF innings, 18 DRS, 12.6 UZR, 15 OAA, 15.6 DRP

Brice Turang - 1835 2B innings, 30 DRS, 5.1 UZR, 6 OAA, -0.8 DRP

Blake Perkins with 1835 OF innings - 30 DRS, 20.8 UZR, 25 OAA, 25.7 DRP

Turang isn't even better than Perkins in DRS rate which despite DRS viewing Turang as outlier good compared to all the other defensive metrics

[Jake McKibbin]

The way you should look at it is that between two elite defenders (and yes both are elite) the better arm and transfer should take shortstop. Ortiz has brilliant range but also has such a rapid transfer and a better throwing arm and you need that far more on the left side of the infield. Turang's arm isn't strong and that'll likely be what holds him back from the position as anything more than a stopgap.

There's no reason to waste the better arm at second base where it's far less useful due to the proximity to first base

[formerlybis]

I know the Brewers have to play Moneyball. If that weren't an issue, I think everyone would want to keep Adames. There are replacements for SS, and *maybe* for his production, but the clubhouse stuff is harder to replicate. Is that worth over-spending for? In my view, yes, but it's not my money. 

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Ortiz has brilliant range but also has such a rapid transfer and a better throwing arm and you need that far more on the left side of the infield.

Agreed. Between this and the more general "why move two people when you can just move one" argument, I would be surprised if Turang moves.

[rickh150]

I would be surprised if the Brewers move Turang and Ortiz, yes, to different spots next year. Figure it’s just Ortiz to SS and several possibilities at 3B in 2025, 2026….

[kestrel79]

If he gets that kinda money we almost have to pass on him. It would strap us as a small market. We can only afford one of those big contracts at a time really and that's Yelli.

Or we sign him to a big deal, then flip him when he's hot after a year or two I wouldn't mind that either and sell high with someone waiting in the wings in the minors by then hopefully.

[Playing Catch]

Turang and Ortiz are both great middle infielders. I don't have strong feelings about who plays where.

To my eye, they are "equal," but they're also great in different ways.

Turang is athletic and is fun watching going to his right. To my eye, he may have the stronger arm.

But Ortiz's hands and movements are so graceful, smooth and quick.

They're different, but both great, and fun to watch.