Mets (Quintana) vs Brewers (Myers): 10/3/24, 6:08pm

[TURBO]

12 hours ago, TURBO said:

Weird take alert:

When the 9th started, Devin had already done his psych up routine, yelling into his hat etc.

Then the technical issue that took a couple minutes to resolve.

Did this have anything to do with it?  Did that disrupt him enough to throw him off?

I may be making excuses, but I think that as small of a thing as it was, it may have caused his collapse.

 

I'm going to post this again since no one commented.

Is this at all even a remote possibility?  he gets pumped up doing his little hat yelling routine, then he takes the mound and pitches.  It was completely disrupted by the malfunction, and he never recovered.

Athletes can be extremely routine based, and I believe that this could have added to his issues last night.

[Playing Catch]

3 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I'm going to post this again since no one commented.

Is this at all even a remote possibility?  he gets pumped up doing his little hat yelling routine, then he takes the mound and pitches.  It was completely disrupted by the malfunction, and he never recovered.

Athletes can be extremely routine based, and I believe that this could have added to his issues last night.

Perhaps? But the playoffs are filled with distractions. If we wanted to break down to truly discover the "why," it may have contributed a little bit.

[Team Canada]

18 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

For as dominant as Devin is according to all the major statistics, there is just a tiny bit of variance with him because he relies so heavily on the changeup and doesn't really overpower guys with his fastball on its own. When he doesn't have pristine control of the changeup such as last night or in St. Louis, for example, he gets behind hitters who are able to wait him out until he either walks them or gives them a hittable pitch in the zone. 

Maybe that's more true of Devin than others, but he can still get his FB into the high 90s. I think it's just a general rule that if you aren't locating as a pitcher, MLB hitters give you no margin for error when you have to come into the zone. That's why hitters counts are so dangerous. We've seen it with other pitchers too - Peguero and Uribe come to mind - they had days when they were great, and days where they had no idea where the ball was going.

I think the point in the article (Matt's I think) about Devin going crossfire post-injury was an intriguing one. I still don't know how Koenig throws the way he does, but it seems like a recipe for wildness.

[Team Canada]

18 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

For as dominant as Devin is according to all the major statistics, there is just a tiny bit of variance with him because he relies so heavily on the changeup and doesn't really overpower guys with his fastball on its own. When he doesn't have pristine control of the changeup such as last night or in St. Louis, for example, he gets behind hitters who are able to wait him out until he either walks them or gives them a hittable pitch in the zone. 

Maybe that's more true of Devin than others, but he can still get his FB into the high 90s. I think it's just a general rule that if you aren't locating as a pitcher, MLB hitters give you no margin for error when you have to come into the zone. That's why hitters counts are so dangerous. We've seen it with other pitchers too - Peguero and Uribe come to mind - they had days when they were great, and days where they had no idea where the ball was going.

I think the point in the article (Matt's I think) about Devin going crossfire post-injury was an intriguing one. I still don't know how Koenig throws the way he does, but it seems like a recipe for wildness.

[Team Canada]

  

21 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

For as dominant as Devin is according to all the major statistics, there is just a tiny bit of variance with him because he relies so heavily on the changeup and doesn't really overpower guys with his fastball on its own. When he doesn't have pristine control of the changeup such as last night or in St. Louis, for example, he gets behind hitters who are able to wait him out until he either walks them or gives them a hittable pitch in the zone. 

Maybe that's more true of Devin than others, but he can still get his FB into the high 90s. I think it's just a general rule that if you aren't locating as a pitcher, MLB hitters give you no margin for error when you have to come into the zone. That's why hitters counts are so dangerous. We've seen it with other pitchers too - Peguero and Uribe come to mind (obviously Hader before that) - they had days when they were great, and days where they had no idea where the ball was going.

I think the point in the article (Matt's I think) about Devin going crossfire post-injury was an intriguing one. I still don't know how Koenig throws the way he does, but it seems like a recipe for wildness.

It also matters how many pitches you throw. If you're Civale or Rea and one pitch isn't working, who cares. When you only have 2 pitches and you can't locate one or both, you have a problem.

Bottom line: It was just a terrible time for one of his few blown saves to happen. He's been one of the best relievers for years. Just not when it counted most.

[Playing Catch]

My thread post-mortem thoughts/responses...

In response to repeated pain and torment from Brewers and any other teams we love... success's strange bedfellow is tragic, painful, tortuous losses. Chicago White Sox fans were not disappointed by their last loss of the season. The reason we've collectively experienced these losses is because our team was in a GREAT position in the first place.

In response to the playoff format... The playoff format giveth/taketh in equal measure. It certainly makes it easier to get into the playoffs, and a 3-game series is much easier to win for the lesser team than a longer series. The observation that the richest teams in the sport have an advantage is universally true both in the regular season and the playoffs. The frustration that the Brewers may "never win a world series in our lifetime," is a legitimate concern. The competitive balance in baseball between rich and poor has perhaps never been so tenuous, and I believe will actually be the crux of the next CBA (along with all of the Bally-related stuff). But the current playoff format does crack the window open just enough to give us hope each season.

In response to all Devin comments specific to last night... I think we try to equate and compare the reasons and causes of regular world events to the events in competitive sports, but that is folly. In the regular world, when failures happen, we often can apply hindsight and logic to reflect and demonstrate the mistakes that were made. But in competitive sports, Devin may not have failed, perhaps he was merely beaten. This is WHY it is so hard to win championships --- especially in baseball with its inherent imbalances. But just MAYBE, then, as Brewers fans, we SHOULD celebrate division championships, and that ANY playoff win is gravy.

In response to Devin's probable trade this offseason... I think great closers like Devin have a lot of value. However, I think we've seen in recent trade cycles that (non-A.J. Preller) teams are reluctant to part with top prospects for great players. Maybe that changes with Devin, but I don't think he'll net a top 75 prospect. I think the only way the Brewers get a good player for 2025 with multiple years of control is if they package him. They might be able to get good players that are not as advanced in their development.

[owbc]

59 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I'm going to post this again since no one commented.

Is this at all even a remote possibility?  he gets pumped up doing his little hat yelling routine, then he takes the mound and pitches.  It was completely disrupted by the malfunction, and he never recovered.

Athletes can be extremely routine based, and I believe that this could have added to his issues last night.

This exact thing was on my mind as it was happening. But it wasn't like he was wild like Diaz was, Lindor fought off several tough pitches. Then decent contact on a ground ball that found a hole, but could have easily been a game ending double play. The changeup to Alonso was just a tad high and Alonso was sitting on it.

I think he just got beat. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Re: Devin last night, I don't blame the guy, necessarily. He had a bad night. He pitched poorly. It was at the worst possible time. But that happens even to great closers. I'm really, really bothered by the leadoff walk and the 0-2, third changeup in a row to Nimmo. The Alonso homer? Bad pitch, hit well. But if it's hit ten more feet toward center? Frelick probably catches it.

The most frustrating part of last night is just that an important guy didn't have his best stuff, we didn't hit with RISP, and we got some bad breaks. Whatever "magic" exists in October, it just was only there for us in the bottom of the 7th, and that wasn't enough to win. This HURT as much as about any Brewer loss of my lifetime (I'd put it top 3 for sure), but I don't wish I could do it over like I do the Mark Kotsay game. I wish it had gone different, but there's nothing really to regret. No bad decisions or shooting ourselves in the foot. That's part of what makes it painful, but what can you do as a fan but just hope the team gives their best effort. Honestly, I'd love the 5th inning of Game 1 back more than I care about anything that happened in last night's 9th.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, SoCalBrewfan said:

I sincerely hope that the front office isn't as irrational about these things as fans seem to be. Williams will likely be traded in the offseason, but that's because he's a closer with a year before free agency, and trading in the offseason lets the team that acquires him give a QO and recoup a draft choice, which you hope will enhance the return. This game should not have any bearing on that decision.

 

Exactly. I think the chances of him being dealt over the winter are definitely there, but it's about having a year left on the deal & the other options in the organization. Nothing to do with last night.

[bigcat]

My only criticism of Murphy is how many ABs he gave Contreras, seeing he was struggling and/or hurt. I was disappointed that Haase (very good hitter) didn't get a chance. I'd have liked to see Mitchell more as well, considering he was one of hottest hitters the last few weeks of the regular season.

Not making the mets pay for that popup Alonso dropped was big too. I think it was Contreras who struck out to end that inning.

Williams..... I mean not sure what to say, don't know the guy very well, his demeanor felt off, maybe that's just his personality, but looked like hid didn't want to even be there; compared to how pumped up everyone else pitched before him.

[Jim French Stepstool]

38 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Re: Devin last night, I don't blame the guy, necessarily. He had a bad night. He pitched poorly. It was at the worst possible time. But that happens even to great closers. I'm really, really bothered by the leadoff walk and the 0-2, third changeup in a row to Nimmo. The Alonso homer? Bad pitch, hit well. But if it's hit ten more feet toward center? Frelick probably catches it.

The most frustrating part of last night is just that an important guy didn't have his best stuff, we didn't hit with RISP, and we got some bad breaks. Whatever "magic" exists in October, it just was only there for us in the bottom of the 7th, and that wasn't enough to win. This HURT as much as about any Brewer loss of my lifetime (I'd put it top 3 for sure), but I don't wish I could do it over like I do the Mark Kotsay game. I wish it had gone different, but there's nothing really to regret. No bad decisions or shooting ourselves in the foot. That's part of what makes it painful, but what can you do as a fan but just hope the team gives their best effort. Honestly, I'd love the 5th inning of Game 1 back more than I care about anything that happened in last night's 9th.

The leadoff walk--with a two run lead--is a definite no-no. But like @owbc mentioned, Lindor really did earn it. Nine, ten pitch AB? That's the fulcrum everything hinged on IMO. And yes, at some point a FB at the top of or slightly above the zone to Nimmo would've been welcomed.

The 2nd & 3rd in the 7th inning, you needed a base hit rather than just contact but still, William, give yourself a chance. Touch the ball.

You're right about the 5th on Tuesday. The stuff we hung our hats on all season was there the last two games (minus the 9th yesterday). If it was there in the middle of game one we probably win the series.

Murphy made three pretty bold moves yesterday--Bauers, Mears & Peralta--and they all worked. Someone about a million pages back mentioned that Haase could've come up for Ortiz in the 9th, which makes some sense. But overall the braintrust did its' job.

[ecjimg]

42 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Re: Devin last night, I don't blame the guy, necessarily. He had a bad night. He pitched poorly. It was at the worst possible time. But that happens even to great closers. I'm really, really bothered by the leadoff walk and the 0-2, third changeup in a row to Nimmo. The Alonso homer? Bad pitch, hit well. But if it's hit ten more feet toward center? Frelick probably catches it.

The most frustrating part of last night is just that an important guy didn't have his best stuff, we didn't hit with RISP, and we got some bad breaks. Whatever "magic" exists in October, it just was only there for us in the bottom of the 7th, and that wasn't enough to win. This HURT as much as about any Brewer loss of my lifetime (I'd put it top 3 for sure), but I don't wish I could do it over like I do the Mark Kotsay game. I wish it had gone different, but there's nothing really to regret. No bad decisions or shooting ourselves in the foot. That's part of what makes it painful, but what can you do as a fan but just hope the team gives their best effort. Honestly, I'd love the 5th inning of Game 1 back more than I care about anything that happened in last night's 9th.

I want a big hit from Jesus Aguilar in the 2018 extra inning game in LA

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Just now, ecjimg said:

I want a big hit from Jesus Aguilar in the 2018 extra inning game in LA

That extra inning game is definitely one I want back. But, of course, my memories of 2018 are, on balance, more fond than not. Keon Broxton catching that fly ball in Wrigley is one of the most beautiful things of all.

[ecjimg]

8 minutes ago, ecjimg said:

I want a big hit from Jesus Aguilar in the 2018 extra inning game in LA

And while I’m at it……. In 2008 CC shouldn’t have walked the pitcher leading to a grand slam in game 2-  and Mike Cameron didn’t catch a crucial fly ball in Game 1 that a better OF would have caught.  Just venting…….

[Team Canada]

35 minutes ago, bigcat said:

My only criticism of Murphy is how many ABs he gave Contreras, seeing he was struggling and/or hurt. I was disappointed that Haase (very good hitter) didn't get a chance. I'd have liked to see Mitchell more as well, considering he was one of hottest hitters the last few weeks of the regular season.

Not making the mets pay for that popup Alonso dropped was big too. I think it was Contreras who struck out to end that inning.

Williams..... I mean not sure what to say, don't know the guy very well, his demeanor felt off, maybe that's just his personality, but looked like hid didn't want to even be there; compared to how pumped up everyone else pitched before him.

Welcome!

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

26 minutes ago, ecjimg said:

And while I’m at it……. In 2008 CC shouldn’t have walked the pitcher leading to a grand slam in game 2-  and Mike Cameron didn’t catch a crucial fly ball in Game 1 that a better OF would have caught.  Just venting…….

2008 was sort of gravy for me. I wish we'd have hit in Philly. But CC was just on fumes, and Sheets was hurt, and that Phillies team was excellent. Honestly, I'd sort of feel like that this year if not for the Wild Card round element. We won our division, had an overachieving year, and playing a full, 5-game series would have been enough. Oh well. The most fun parts of this team will be back (minus Willy, and good luck to him)!

[adambr2]

43 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

That extra inning game is definitely one I want back. But, of course, my memories of 2018 are, on balance, more fond than not. Keon Broxton catching that fly ball in Wrigley is one of the most beautiful things of all.

Two things from that game stick out in my mind:

- Junior Guerra was completely and obviously cooked and left in the game. 

- We had the opportunity to walk the bases loaded in the deciding extra inning to get to the pitcher and we did not do it. (Dodgers had no pinch-hitters left).

Pain. 

[StearnsFTW]

We pitched so damn well all night that the top of the order was up in the 9th.

 

Should've allowed more baserunners earlier.

[Nola Beery]

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

My thread post-mortem thoughts/responses...

***But the current playoff format does crack the window open just enough to give us hope each season.

***In the regular world, when failures happen, we often can apply hindsight and logic to reflect and demonstrate the mistakes that were made. But in competitive sports, Devin may not have failed, perhaps he was merely beaten.****

This was a thoughtful post in its entirety.  I have just a few comments, as perhaps my way of dealing with the sudden and crappy end to what was otherwise a good season:

"the current playoff format does crack the window open just enough to give us hope each season" and then crush our hopes like a bug on the windshield. 😖

"In the regular world, when failures happen, we often can apply hindsight and logic to reflect and demonstrate the mistakes that were made." We all fail.  Most of us just don't do it before a national audience. I'm sure Devin feels THE WORST about all of this, but nobody thinks he's a bad person or player, and he will rebound.

[CheezWizHed]

The struggle of an MLB manager...

• Throws Mears out with nearly an ERA of 6 and he strikes out 2, gets 3 outs with 15 pitches
• Throws Williams out there with an ERA of 1.25 and he blows up. 

His questionable decisions worked with no problems... he "easy button" decision blew up on him. 

[Nola Beery]

49 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

The struggle of an MLB manager...

• Throws Mears out with nearly an ERA of 6 and he strikes out 2, gets 3 outs with 15 pitches
• Throws Williams out there with an ERA of 1.25 and he blows up. 

His questionable decisions worked with no problems... he "easy button" decision blew up on him. 

Somewhere else I posted about a book called "The Cruelest Game."  The book was about backgammon, where you can make the best move based on the odds of the dice, but it's the actual roll of the dice that can make or break you.  The author made a point of comparing it to being a baseball manager:  You can make all of the right moves, and still get crushed on any given pitch.

[RobertCrawley]

JomBoy makes a really good case that Devin was tipping his pitches. If the Mets picked that up, that's a huge, gaming winning advantage. 

I don't agree we should trade Devin. If he's amenable to working on techniques that will keep him from getting too wound up in high leverage situations, I think he can be what we want in the biggest games of the season. He was pretty darned good in game 2. Of course, he'll need to work on not tipping his pitches too.

Finally, if Devin was tipping his pitches, who's to blame on the Brewers club for not catching it?

[treego14]

Devin Williams' ERA in the 2nd game of back-to-backs is over 10.00 this season!

I heard this on Sparky Fifer's show this afternoon!

If this is accurate .... whew, boy!

[treego14]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

The struggle of an MLB manager...

• Throws Mears out with nearly an ERA of 6 and he strikes out 2, gets 3 outs with 15 pitches
• Throws Williams out there with an ERA of 1.25 and he blows up. 

His questionable decisions worked with no problems... he "easy button" decision blew up on him. 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, treego14 said:

Devin Williams' ERA in the 2nd game of back-to-backs is over 10.00 this season!

I heard this on Sparky Fifer's show this afternoon!

If this is accurate .... whew, boy!

I mean that counts last night. Going into last night he had a 3.86 ERA and 3.82 FIP when pitching on 0 days rest but even then it's a mostly pointless sample