Bohm

[Madhawk23]

https://x.com/tylerkoerth/status/1856381396249423988?s=46&t=83zVtbZ6qN5Qh6uJB35lLA

This feels almost too good to be true. Wouldn’t a Devin for Bohm trade help both teams here?

[SF70]

Williams & Black for:

Bohm & Wen Hui Pan (RHP)

 

We get a 3–3.5 WAR (last year) 3B at $8M this season and ~$12M next season plus a big armed pitching prospect that throws upper 90’s with a nasty splitter we can bullpen.

Also been reported the Phillies want to improve their pen and OF. If they like Black, this could be the team to deal with.

[Madhawk23]

6 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Williams & Black for:

Bohm & Wen Hui Pan (RHP)

 

We get a 3–3.5 WAR (last year) 3B at $8M this season and ~$12M next season plus a big armed pitching prospect that throws upper 90’s with a nasty splitter we can bullpen.

Also been reported the Phillies want to improve their pen and OF. If they like Black, this could be the team to deal with.

Judging by your package here, I'm guessing you feel that we can't get Bohm with just Devin?  I don't have access to the MLB Trade Valuation site anymore to know what value they are placing on both Devin and Bohm.  Does anyone have that?  I'm guessing that Bohm does have a decent amount of additional trade value given his extra year, but just curious to know how much it is?  

I'm admittedly not as high on Black as I was a year ago (guessing most aren't), but I think he is still in most of the Top 100 prospect rankings still - so feels like we probably shouldn't have to throw in a Top 100 guy with Devin in order to get 2 years of Bohm, right?  Or, am I just completely off in how I'm valuing this potential trade package?  

[wallus]

Bohm is 22.3 and Williams is 11.2 on the Trade Values website 

I would do Devin for Bohm but he is not great defensively at 3rd. 

[nate82]

For Bohm I am going to repeat what I said in the Devin Williams trade thread.  It all depends on how the Brewers see Bohm.  Do they see him as 1B or a 3B?  If they see him as a 1B then he has less value around $10mm in surplus value but if they see him as a 3B then he has around $15mm in surplus value. 

I believe the Phillies see him as a 1B which reduces his surplus value to about $10mm for them which is right around what Williams is worth.  If you go by BTV then Williams has about $11mm in surplus value and Bohm as he is evaluated now as a 3B is at $22mm which I completely disagree with.  I don't believe Bohm has that value and he is closer to $15mm than he is to $22mm as a 3B.  They have Williams at $11mm which is about right I would raise that to about $12-15mm so I am not all that concerned about Williams value. 

34 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Also been reported the Phillies want to improve their pen and OF. If they like Black, this could be the team to deal with.

Black doesn't really fit with the Phillies.  I think the Phillies would prefer Frelick over Black or anyone really over Black.  I just don't see the value for the Phillies here for Black when they already have two DH's in Schwarber and Castellanos.  Black is just not a good enough OF to put in LF or RF. 

Something like Williams and Frelick for Bohm, Aroon Escobar and Jean Cabrera.  This is basically two trades in one as it would be Frelick for Bohm and then Williams for Escobar and Cabrera.  I like Cabrera more than Abel so went with Cabrera over Abel here and Escobar is a very interesting and exciting 2B/3B.  I don't think the Phillies would want to trade Escobar but he is someone I would want in exchange for Williams.  Cabrera is very similar to Freddy Peralta and Abel is also similar to Peralta in terms that both have a hard time finding the plate.  Abel has regressed again with his command and that is two straight years in a row where his command has regressed 2023 and 2024.  This seems like it is in favor of the Phillies but I believe both Escobar and Cabrera will be excellent MLB players especially Escobar.   

[SF70]

6 minutes ago, nate82 said:

For Bohm I am going to repeat what I said in the Devin Williams trade thread.  It all depends on how the Brewers see Bohm.  Do they see him as 1B or a 3B?  If they see him as a 1B then he has less value around $10mm in surplus value but if they see him as a 3B then he has around $15mm in surplus value. 

I believe the Phillies see him as a 1B which reduces his surplus value to about $10mm for them which is right around what Williams is worth.  If you go by BTV then Williams has about $11mm in surplus value and Bohm as he is evaluated now as a 3B is at $22mm which I completely disagree with.  I don't believe Bohm has that value and he is closer to $15mm than he is to $22mm as a 3B.  They have Williams at $11mm which is about right I would raise that to about $12-15mm so I am not all that concerned about Williams value. 

Black doesn't really fit with the Phillies.  I think the Phillies would prefer Frelick over Black or anyone really over Black.  I just don't see the value for the Phillies here for Black when they already have two DH's in Schwarber and Castellanos.  Black is just not a good enough OF to put in LF or RF. 

Something like Williams and Frelick for Bohm, Aroon Escobar and Jean Cabrera.  This is basically two trades in one as it would be Frelick for Bohm and then Williams for Escobar and Cabrera.  I like Cabrera more than Abel so went with Cabrera over Abel here and Escobar is a very interesting and exciting 2B/3B.  I don't think the Phillies would want to trade Escobar but he is someone I would want in exchange for Williams.  Cabrera is very similar to Freddy Peralta and Abel is also similar to Peralta in terms that both have a hard time finding the plate.  Abel has regressed again with his command and that is two straight years in a row where his command has regressed 2023 and 2024.  This seems like it is in favor of the Phillies but I believe both Escobar and Cabrera will be excellent MLB players especially Escobar.   

Black’s best defensive position is OF (CF/LF). None of us have any idea what the Phillies think of Black, for all we know they like him better than Frelick, especially with an extra control year.

[Madhawk23]

8 minutes ago, nate82 said:

For Bohm I am going to repeat what I said in the Devin Williams trade thread.  It all depends on how the Brewers see Bohm.  Do they see him as 1B or a 3B?  If they see him as a 1B then he has less value around $10mm in surplus value but if they see him as a 3B then he has around $15mm in surplus value. 

I believe the Phillies see him as a 1B which reduces his surplus value to about $10mm for them which is right around what Williams is worth.  If you go by BTV then Williams has about $11mm in surplus value and Bohm as he is evaluated now as a 3B is at $22mm which I completely disagree with.  I don't believe Bohm has that value and he is closer to $15mm than he is to $22mm as a 3B.  They have Williams at $11mm which is about right I would raise that to about $12-15mm so I am not all that concerned about Williams value. 

Black doesn't really fit with the Phillies.  I think the Phillies would prefer Frelick over Black or anyone really over Black.  I just don't see the value for the Phillies here for Black when they already have two DH's in Schwarber and Castellanos.  Black is just not a good enough OF to put in LF or RF. 

Something like Williams and Frelick for Bohm, Aroon Escobar and Jean Cabrera.  This is basically two trades in one as it would be Frelick for Bohm and then Williams for Escobar and Cabrera.  I like Cabrera more than Abel so went with Cabrera over Abel here and Escobar is a very interesting and exciting 2B/3B.  I don't think the Phillies would want to trade Escobar but he is someone I would want in exchange for Williams.  Cabrera is very similar to Freddy Peralta and Abel is also similar to Peralta in terms that both have a hard time finding the plate.  Abel has regressed again with his command and that is two straight years in a row where his command has regressed 2023 and 2024.  This seems like it is in favor of the Phillies but I believe both Escobar and Cabrera will be excellent MLB players especially Escobar.   

Well, if we don't think that Bohm can handle 3B (and sounds like he has some defensive deficiencies there), then he probably isn't someone that we'd target then - right?  We already know that we've got Rhys coming back this season, so if Bohm is destined more for 1B/DH - then he really doesn't help us in our need to fill the 3B opening next year and beyond.  

Also, with as much as Murph loves Sal - I just can't see us moving him this winter.  

[SF70]

14 minutes ago, wallus said:

Bohm is 22.3 and Williams is 11.2 on the Trade Values website 

I would do Devin for Bohm but he is not great defensively at 3rd. 

Not great at 3B, but improved over his previous play last season, enough to get him over 3 WAR.

[sveumrules]

From 2021-23 Bohm put up -40 DRS | -7 FRV at 3B. Last year was his best by the metrics at an even zero DRS and +3 FRV.

I think the Brewers would live with average-ish defense at 3B for a good enough bat, but is there enough boom in Bohm’s bat?

His K rate has declined from 26.6% in 2021 to 14.2% last year so that’s good.

But his walk rate (6.5% career, 6.6% in 2024) is pretty uninspiring and his 102 ISO+ the last two years is barely above average so he’s not really as much of a power bat as his stature might imply.

The shape of his production at the plate was pretty suspect last year too with 118 PAs of 365/441/615 thru April 28th followed by 488 PAs of 260/305/409 to finish the year.

His 132 wRC+ vs LHP the last two years would be a boost to the Brewers lefty woahs, but of course that means he has a much less impressive 101 wRC+ vs RHP over that same stretch.

[nate82]

4 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Black’s best defensive position is OF (CF/LF). None of us have any idea what the Phillies think of Black, for all we know they like him better than Frelick, especially with an extra control year.

That may be his best position but I don't see him as either of those positions.  I think he is below average there defensively and wouldn't be an improvement for the Phillies.  I doubt they would like him more than Frelick and the extra year of control wouldn't be as much of a deal to the Phillies.  Their window is now so having Black for an extra year doesn't really do much for them.  It means more to the Brewers than it does to the Phillies. 

 

6 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

We already know that we've got Rhys coming back this season, so if Bohm is destined more for 1B/DH - then he really doesn't help us in our need to fill the 3B opening next year and beyond.  

With Rhys coming back he is probably going to play more DH than he will at 1B.  That means you need someone to play more at 1B.  I think 1B is more of a problem than 3B is and I think the Brewers are just going to keep Ortiz at 3B for now.  The Brewers could also trade for Edman or someone similar to play 2B/3B if they want to move Ortiz to SS and keep Turang at 2B.  I think the more likely outcome is that Turang moves back to SS and Ortiz stays at 3B and the Brewers trade or sign someone at 2B.  A trade for Bohm helps move this along as the Brewers also need a 1B as I don't believe the Brewers see Hoskins as an everyday 1B.

I also believe that Hoskins is going to get the majority of starts at DH at least 90 games worth with Yelich and Contreras splitting time when Hoskins is playing 1B.  I think Hoskins will only play about 20 games at 1B next year for the Brewers which leaves open 140 games.  Bohm playing 120 games at 1B and the rest at 3B would be fine.  There are enough starts at 1B for both Bohm and Hoskins on the team. 

[sveumrules]

Bohm’s bat is pretty borderline at 3B, it would be a negative at 1B outside of vs LHP or the one month he puts up a 1,050 OPS.

His glove has also been pretty brutal at 1B with -6 DRS and -4 FRV in 802 career innings.

[umphrey]

Bohm is a weird one. I thought he would be highly valued but I guess Philly fans kind of hate him. Say his defense is bad and I guess he was cold for most of the year except April.  Got benched late in the year. 
 

I would probably do it honestly to gear up for a 2 year run with this roster, since he’s the best infielder we could realistically add most likely. It’s not a very Brewers move though, I think they will try to get someone with more years of control or a stopgap 1 year FA. The poor defense and 2 years of control are just not Brewers. 

[wntrtxn21]

8 hours ago, nate82 said:

That may be his best position but I don't see him as either of those positions.  I think he is below average there defensively and wouldn't be an improvement for the Phillies.  I doubt they would like him more than Frelick and the extra year of control wouldn't be as much of a deal to the Phillies.  Their window is now so having Black for an extra year doesn't really do much for them.  It means more to the Brewers than it does to the Phillies. 

 

With Rhys coming back he is probably going to play more DH than he will at 1B.  That means you need someone to play more at 1B.  I think 1B is more of a problem than 3B is and I think the Brewers are just going to keep Ortiz at 3B for now.  The Brewers could also trade for Edman or someone similar to play 2B/3B if they want to move Ortiz to SS and keep Turang at 2B.  I think the more likely outcome is that Turang moves back to SS and Ortiz stays at 3B and the Brewers trade or sign someone at 2B.  A trade for Bohm helps move this along as the Brewers also need a 1B as I don't believe the Brewers see Hoskins as an everyday 1B.

I also believe that Hoskins is going to get the majority of starts at DH at least 90 games worth with Yelich and Contreras splitting time when Hoskins is playing 1B.  I think Hoskins will only play about 20 games at 1B next year for the Brewers which leaves open 140 games.  Bohm playing 120 games at 1B and the rest at 3B would be fine.  There are enough starts at 1B for both Bohm and Hoskins on the team. 

I believe Hoskins is their primary 1B with Yelich getting the big majority of games as the DH. Hoskins and Contreras could see maybe 20 games each as the DH.  I don't see any way Milwaukee moves the platinum glove winner (Turang) off 2B. He's far too valuable there. If they trade for Bohm it's going to be as a 3B with Ortiz moving to SS. The following year Bohm could move to 1B if any of the young guys can step in at 3B. 

[SF70]

Bohm has improved in the box in his junior and senior years. 107 &115 wRC+ and will play the next 2 years at age 28 & 29, prime performance years with veteran playoff experience. And as Sveum has already pointed out, crushes LHP, the team’s Achilles heal.

Last year he improved his defense to a smidgen above average and if the team thinks that can be maintained the next 2 years, this is a 3+ WAR 3B that helps this offensive vs LHP in a big way, which considering their work vs lefties can’t be discounted.

Imo, the team see’s one of Pratt-Made likely taking over 3B in 2027, and needs not just a stopgap 3B but an above average one at that.

[TURBO]

3 hours ago, SF70 said:

Imo, the team see’s one of Pratt-Made likely taking over 3B in 2027, and needs not just a stopgap 3B but an above average one at that.

This is the first I have heard of Pratt moving to 3B.

Conjecture?

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, TURBO said:

This is the first I have heard of Pratt moving to 3B.

Conjecture?

He did say one of Pratt or Made. Whenever they are both at the MLB level, one will have to give or be traded...

[Scooterfletcher]

Two things here:

1) I think it’s reasonable to think Pratt could be ready in 2026 instead of 2027.

2) I’m wondering if people here would rather have two years of Boehm or four years of Stott if they can be had for the same exact potential Devin deal?

[Madhawk23]

39 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Two things here:

1) I think it’s reasonable to think Pratt could be ready in 2026 instead of 2027.

2) I’m wondering if people here would rather have two years of Boehm or four years of Stott if they can be had for the same exact potential Devin deal?

What's the talk about Stott coming out of Philly this winter?  Is he someone that they'd be looking to potentially trade?  If so...why?  

 

[markedman5]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

He did say one of Pratt or Made. Whenever they are both at the MLB level, one will have to give or be traded...

The timing of either/both of them getting to the majors is not known……especially Made……just because Chourio zoomed to the majors at 20 doesn’t remotely mean Made will have the same trajectory……..if he does great but lots can happen between now and then.

By the time they both get here and are ready to start ( assuming that happens) they might be looking to trade Ortiz or Turang to make room…….lots of potential outcomes.

[nate82]

7 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Two things here:

1) I think it’s reasonable to think Pratt could be ready in 2026 instead of 2027.

2) I’m wondering if people here would rather have two years of Boehm or four years of Stott if they can be had for the same exact potential Devin deal?

Stott is not available.  The Phillies are trying to make room for Arenado.  Supposedly Arenado is the #1 target for the Phillies.  So I think that may close the book on a Williams trade to the Phillies.  

[Scooterfletcher]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Stott is not available.  The Phillies are trying to make room for Arenado.  Supposedly Arenado is the #1 target for the Phillies.  So I think that may close the book on a Williams trade to the Phillies.  

How does arenado as their top target not make a bohm for Williams trade that much more likely?  Book is closed makes zero sense in that context…

[nate82]

7 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

How does arenado as their top target not make a bohm for Williams trade that much more likely?  Book is closed makes zero sense in that context…

Because the Phillies want to get some prospects back so they can make another trade if they need to after making the Arenado trade.  Trading Bohm for Williams doesn’t accomplish that.

[wntrtxn21]

57 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Because the Phillies want to get some prospects back so they can make another trade if they need to after making the Arenado trade.  Trading Bohm for Williams doesn’t accomplish that.

The Phillies would be looking for prospects to trade for a closer.  With the Williams for Bohm deal they don't need prospects to get a closer. They also have to money to extend Williams for years. 

[wildcat2237]

The current Brewers front office seems to place a really high value on defense. Bohm is a below average defender. He's also not cheap going into a year where the Brewers might be looking to cut the payroll.

Thus, I just dont see Bohm as a good fit for this Brewers front office. The exception would be if they see him as a future DH. At that position his bat would be very average for a DH. 

[wntrtxn21]

Bohm hit .280 (779 OPS) and drove in 97 last year. I think Milwaukee would see him as a one year 3B with adequate defense. They should get better defensively at SS with Ortiz so it's a wash from last year.  Bohm fills a huge hole in the infield for now and he would be making less than Williams, so he fits into the Brewers' payroll well.