2025 MLB Draft

[Mr Southpaw]

MLB.com  has just put out its top 100 prospects Top Baseball Draft Prospects .  With the Brewers picking at 20, 32, 33, 60, and 95 who do you like as possibilities?  I believe this year should be heavier on college pitchers as this seems to be a position we are thinner at than most others. Here are some possibilities.

20. (19) Tre Phillips OF/3B/1B  Georgia    (21) Trent Carraway  3B  OSU     (24) Dean Curley  SS  Tennessee

32  (26) Kyson Witherspoon  RHP  Oklahoma   (38) Chase Shores  RHP LSU

33  (43)  AJ Russell  RHP  Tennessee   (46)  Matt Scott  Stanford

60  (63)  James Ellwanger   RHP  Dallas Babtist    (64)  Gabe Davis RHP  Oklahoma State

68  (63)  James Ellwanger   RHP  Dallas Babtist    (64)  Gabe Davis RHP  Oklahoma State

95  (90)  Cam Leiter  RHP  Florida States   (93)  Landon Beidelschies  LHP  Arkansas

All of these pitchers are at least 6' 3" and at least 200 lbs.  There is a good chance that three out of the six will make it to AAA within two years.  Any thoughts?

 

      

[snoogans8056]

We are zagging at the moment, and that doesn’t seem to be taking college pitchers.

I like the idea of taking both Parker twins out of Mississippi HS. One feels like a very Pratt-y infielder (also a Mississippi HS), while the other is a plus plus power OF bat. May be an easier sign if they can still play together like they would at college.

I think it was said that our comp pick for losing Levonas last year (68) has to be signed this year or we lose the pick. That will probably be an easier sign, and probably a college senior with a huge savings on bonus (which was about 1.25mil slot last year).

[CheeseheadInQC]

5 hours ago, snoogans8056 said:

We are zagging at the moment, and that doesn’t seem to be taking college pitchers.

I like the idea of taking both Parker twins out of Mississippi HS. One feels like a very Pratt-y infielder (also a Mississippi HS), while the other is a plus plus power OF bat. May be an easier sign if they can still play together like they would at college.

I think it was said that our comp pick for losing Levonas last year (68) has to be signed this year or we lose the pick. That will probably be an easier sign, and probably a college senior with a huge savings on bonus (which was about 1.25mil slot last year).

I wonder how much is zagging and how much is what they view as the best way to maximize value in their drafts. It could be that they go primarily offense early simply because they think it is easier to find value on the pitching side later (especially college pitchers vs. college hitters) and that rather than focusing on the risk side of taking prep pitching, they focus on the advantage of getting pitchers into their development system at a younger age. I don't know that it is a coincidence that a lot of the teams that have had the most success developing pitchers lately are also the ones most willing to draft prep arms.

Regardless, I agree that we probably see something similar to the past two years this year. Maybe they spend one of the five early picks on a college pitcher, but I'd wager at least one probably ends up being a prep pitcher and at least two end up being hitters.

[nate82]

The Brewers probably go bat with their first pick and then pitcher with the Comp A pick and compensation pick for Adames.  After that it is anyone's guess really. 

I don't think they will go college unless someone drops.  They may go JUCO with one of the comp picks. 

[Jose Cardenal]

Even with the extra picks I assume they will go under slot with the first pick (and probably another of the early picks too).  The guy they pick at 20 may be rated lower than the guy they take at 32.

 

On the flip side they could really open up some interesting possibilities with all the cap space they will have.

 

[snoogans8056]

Hopefully the timestamp worked.... Though the whole interview is very insightful towards how we look at the draft the last few years.

But it's a good point from one of our scouts. The NIL money is going to go to guys who win for the program, and that is transfers and upper classmen. Those 18 year olds aren't getting big money, aren't getting early ABs, and are going to be constantly recruited over.

Winning matters less in pro ball than in college. It's all about development and getting at bats ASAP.

[SF70]

They also get the 68th pick for not signing Levonas.

[SF70]

Why change what’s working?

Internationally, go heavy $ positionally with some pitching sprinkled-in. 

Domestically, Heavy on the HS pitching, add some college pitching, some upside HS hitters, and a college hitter, two or three.

The result is a system with as much young talent as there is in the game, that also fits the strategic upgrading replacement of the team’s current core over the next 2-5 years.

[jay87shot]

23) OF Ethan Conrad  Highly successful at Marist, the Cape, and Perfect Game. He looks like a potential Garrett Mitchell style OF with potential plus tools across the board and will play at Wake this year.

31) 2B Henry Godbout from Virginia hit .372/.472/.645 with 29 bb/20k, he would be an early guess to me for someone who fits our offensive mold (average runner, fielder, so maybe not overall).

38) P Chase Shores 6'8" throws up to 100, missed 2024 with TJ but the upside alone is intriguing. My guess is that if healthy he ends up higher.

40) OF Kane Kepley   See Sal Frelick, if he can get it done at UNC he will be very sought after.

45) P Angel Cervantes  Does turn 18 until August, not the biggest arm but at 6'3' 195 will likely add strength and has a very good changeup.

94) P Jack Lafflam  6'6'' 175 pounds with a 4 pitch mix is a ton a projectability for a HS prospect.

I kind of wouldn't mind a solid catching prospect unless Corobo or Dinges catch fire, however wasnt thrilled by any in the top 100.

 

[snoogans8056]

Cervantes definitely jumped out. I always sort by age first thing on these draft lists.

Just last year we had only 2 high school draft picks out of 12 that had birth years in the previous year (Tobias and Broughton).

Year before was 5 out of 10 (Pratt, Letson, and 3 unsigned guys).

A lot of these high draft picks / highly mocked are well into being 19. We don’t draft that.

Payne was a full year younger than most of the first round high schoolers. Bitonti and Knoth were younger than a good majority, and they were drafted the year before.

 

[Jake McKibbin]

 

Absolutely no surprise to anyone who's followed the Brewers last two drafts

[brewmann04]

Continue to add pitching in the draft 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

My early draft crush right now is Gavin Fien HS IF out of Great Oak. Really really like the bat and the projection. I think he can add power to an already great frame for a HS. He's got some serious pop for a 17 year old. And the bat is super quick in the zone. Finds the barrel, Hope he doesn't get too much helium. 

[jesusoftheapes]

On 1/27/2025 at 3:51 PM, Mr Southpaw said:

MLB.com  has just put out its top 100 prospects Top Baseball Draft Prospects .  With the Brewers picking at 20, 32, 33, 60, and 95 who do you like as possibilities?  I believe this year should be heavier on college pitchers as this seems to be a position we are thinner at than most others. Here are some possibilities.

20. (19) Tre Phillips OF/3B/1B  Georgia    (21) Trent Carraway  3B  OSU     (24) Dean Curley  SS  Tennessee

32  (26) Kyson Witherspoon  RHP  Oklahoma   (38) Chase Shores  RHP LSU

33  (43)  AJ Russell  RHP  Tennessee   (46)  Matt Scott  Stanford

60  (63)  James Ellwanger   RHP  Dallas Babtist    (64)  Gabe Davis RHP  Oklahoma State

68

95  (90)  Cam Leiter  RHP  Florida States   (93)  Landon Beidelschies  LHP  Arkansas

All of these pitchers are at least 6' 3" and at least 200 lbs.  There is a good chance that two out of the four will make it to AAA within two years.  Any thoughts?

 

      

has anyone ever put together the top 100 Vs the actual outcome of the MLB draft?   It seems like it is always wrong.  

[bigred]

19 hours ago, jesusoftheapes said:

has anyone ever put together the top 100 Vs the actual outcome of the MLB draft?   It seems like it is always wrong.  

Since most teams manipulate their bonus pools in the earlier rounds to save $$ for players in the later rounds, the top 100 list really doesn't mean much. The MLB draft is the biggest crap shoot in professional sports. 

[Jake McKibbin]

On 2/8/2025 at 1:32 AM, snoogans8056 said:

Cervantes definitely jumped out. I always sort by age first thing on these draft lists.

Just last year we had only 2 high school draft picks out of 12 that had birth years in the previous year (Tobias and Broughton).

Year before was 5 out of 10 (Pratt, Letson, and 3 unsigned guys).

A lot of these high draft picks / highly mocked are well into being 19. We don’t draft that.

Payne was a full year younger than most of the first round high schoolers. Bitonti and Knoth were younger than a good majority, and they were drafted the year before.

 

Was just looking at this actually. He seems to fit the Brewers mold in another way with apparently a real feel for spin. Both breaking pitches are mentioned as high spin by BA but he's still learning to refine the shape to round out a genuine starters arsenal on top of a FB touching 94 (a number you'd expect to jump in his senior year)

[jesusoftheapes]

14 hours ago, bigred said:

Since most teams manipulate their bonus pools in the earlier rounds to save $$ for players in the later rounds, the top 100 list really doesn't mean much. The MLB draft is the biggest crap shoot in professional sports. 

Agreed ! It is the mess that no one can follow..  I cannot even believe the MLB can fathom who is going where much past the top 10 .  One of the systems they could completely overhaul to make the teams who do not make the money of the top 4 teams is by making the Draft make sense.   

It is a mess of players and positioning that simply put makes no sense at all and should make sense. This is hard to follow or project which costs the MLB MILLIONS of dollars in revenue . 

Look no further than the NFL draft and where it has gone to see the best way to use the draft to profit the league.     The NFL draft combine gets almost as much viewers as the Super Bowl in 2025.     Every draft pick is well known by NFL fans to the point we can call 7th round picks for the Packers with regularity.  Try prediction of baseball like that .  Cannot be done.    

The MLB having a confusing mess of a draft is hurting baseball incomes.   People would put more time into scouting prospects (at least in college) if the draft was easier to follow.     

[jesusoftheapes]

8 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Was just looking at this actually. He seems to fit the Brewers mold in another way with apparently a real feel for spin. Both breaking pitches are mentioned as high spin by BA but he's still learning to refine the shape to round out a genuine starters arsenal on top of a FB touching 94 (a number you'd expect to jump in his senior year)

I see value in drafting  kids but I also see value in drafting fully grown men who can play ball without being taught how.  

I like that Craig Yoho was basically ready for the MLB day one.     I like that Gabe Swansen will be able to play well  north of low A ball year one and see the value in drafting players who are not long term developmental players who can be on an MLB field before the entire current roster is out of Milwaukee .   

I think only focusing on youth is a mistake but the Brewers have been good at mixing in talent with established talent better than most teams at least when it comes to drafting these guys.    

I cannot see who you are talking about though.  Which pitcher did you mean to speak about here?

[nate82]

1 hour ago, jesusoftheapes said:

Agreed ! It is the mess that no one can follow..  I cannot even believe the MLB can fathom who is going where much past the top 10 .  One of the systems they could completely overhaul to make the teams who do not make the money of the top 4 teams is by making the Draft make sense.   

Completely disagree the MLB draft is rather easy to follow.  Yes there are surprises here and there like the Brewers last year but it really isn't all that hard to follow.  There are surprises in every draft even in the NFL.  Players drop either because of signing issues or medical issues.   

In MLB it is easy to follow and you know ahead of time if a player is going to have signing issues.  It will become rather obvious when teams start passing on a player in the 10-15 range when no one has selected the player in that range.  Usually when that happens it is either a medical issue or the player wants top 5 money. 

[bigred]

9 hours ago, jesusoftheapes said:

Agreed ! It is the mess that no one can follow..  I cannot even believe the MLB can fathom who is going where much past the top 10 .  One of the systems they could completely overhaul to make the teams who do not make the money of the top 4 teams is by making the Draft make sense.   

It is a mess of players and positioning that simply put makes no sense at all and should make sense. This is hard to follow or project which costs the MLB MILLIONS of dollars in revenue . 

Look no further than the NFL draft and where it has gone to see the best way to use the draft to profit the league.     The NFL draft combine gets almost as much viewers as the Super Bowl in 2025.     Every draft pick is well known by NFL fans to the point we can call 7th round picks for the Packers with regularity.  Try prediction of baseball like that .  Cannot be done.    

The MLB having a confusing mess of a draft is hurting baseball incomes.   People would put more time into scouting prospects (at least in college) if the draft was easier to follow.     

That is basically impossible to do. Every team rates players differently, and for different reasons.That's just the way it is. 

[Austin Tatious]

The organization has done a really good job of balancing different position groups and across different levels.  We can legit go after almost any profile.  I really like our position group depth so I hope we can add some really good pitching upside this year.  

[SF70]

7 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

The organization has done a really good job of balancing different position groups and across different levels.  We can legit go after almost any profile.  I really like our position group depth so I hope we can add some really good pitching upside this year.  

Agree.

The system has as much balance as I’ve ever seen it. 

They have a good thing going with international giving them future impactful position prospects and the draft giving them projectable higher ceiling HS arms.

I think they continue to draft like they have the last 2 drafts, taking another couple of boatloads of arms to continue this balance of positionals/pitching.

The Arnold-lead draft strategy has completely re-vamped the teams farm and has lead to a burgeoning powerhouse organization.

[CheeseheadInQC]

On 2/28/2025 at 2:19 PM, jesusoftheapes said:

Agreed ! It is the mess that no one can follow..  I cannot even believe the MLB can fathom who is going where much past the top 10 .  One of the systems they could completely overhaul to make the teams who do not make the money of the top 4 teams is by making the Draft make sense.   

It is a mess of players and positioning that simply put makes no sense at all and should make sense. This is hard to follow or project which costs the MLB MILLIONS of dollars in revenue . 

Look no further than the NFL draft and where it has gone to see the best way to use the draft to profit the league.     The NFL draft combine gets almost as much viewers as the Super Bowl in 2025.     Every draft pick is well known by NFL fans to the point we can call 7th round picks for the Packers with regularity.  Try prediction of baseball like that .  Cannot be done.    

The MLB having a confusing mess of a draft is hurting baseball incomes.   People would put more time into scouting prospects (at least in college) if the draft was easier to follow.     

I disagree for a few reasons:

1. You are never going to be able to become the NFL Draft because one of the things that makes the NFL Draft interesting is imagining how the picks fit into your team's depth chart this season. No other sport has that to the extent that the NFL does. Unless your team is drafting an MLB-ready college player in the top 5 or you are an Angels fan, you are probably going to have to wait a year and a half minimum before seeing them in your team's uniform for anything other than a spring training game.

2. The chaos is usually after the first round (always going to be the most marketable one). In 2024, which was always going to be a weird draft because it was seen as pretty lacking in talent overall, four players from outside the top 35 on MLB.com's predraft list were chosen with a true first round pick. In 2023, there was only one, Brice Matthews, the 28th and final true first round pick. The NFL draft isn't even as predictable as that one was.

3. The players pushed up the board are usually the college players, who, if they can ever figure out a way to make college baseball more marketable, would be the names people would recognize anyway once you get past the top-tier prep phenoms.

4. The baseball method actually adds suspense to the later rounds. If a player slips multiple rounds in the NFL draft it is usually for something performance related that hasn't leaked yet (i.e. injury, college coach saying he needed to assign a coach to make sure the guy showed up to games let alone practice). With MLB, you can see a high school player falling and think is he going to college or is some team stringing him? Is it us? Do we have enough money left? I say this as someone who used to do 7-round NFL mock drafts, the later rounds of the MLB draft are more fascinating for me than the NFL one, especially now that you can't play the "When will Bill Belichick's board run out of players and he just starts drafting long snappers?" game.

[wallus]

I would say the system is pretty balanced but still would say there is a decent need for additional starting pitching depth. That probably isn't as important for us versus other teams because we seem to develop other team's failed prospects.

[brewmann04]

KEEP DRAFT Pitching in the draft never have enough arms