26 man roster predictions

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I don’t see any bright spots for Canha in 2024 or this spring. I’d rather go with someone less proven than 36 year old Canha.

They need someone on the bench who can play 1B so probably Bauers or Canha will be in the 26 man roster. Unless someone is on the waiver wire they like better for that bench role 

[endaround]

Canha has a wRC+ of 124 against left handed pitching in 2024 and 125 in 2023. He is a decent 1B glove and can fill in the OF in a pinch.  Bauers has had 1744 plate appearances to produce a -1.3 WAR with a career 84 wRC+ and should not be in the OF. I don't get what more he has to disprove.

[gregmag]

13 minutes ago, endaround said:

Canha has a wRC+ of 124 against left handed pitching in 2024 and 125 in 2023. He is a decent 1B glove and can fill in the OF in a pinch.  Bauers has had 1744 plate appearances to produce a -1.3 WAR with a career 84 wRC+ and should not be in the OF. I don't get what more he has to disprove.

I see both sides of this one.  The pushback for Bauers is that he isn't at a point where he might fall off the aging cliff, a lefty bat makes more sense as a complement to Hoskins, and he's likely somewhat less bad in the outfield than Canha.  The argument isn't that Bauers might be better than we've seen; it's that Canha is 36.  Yes, he was serviceable at 35, which is pretty amazing; but staying amazingly slightly above replacement level from 35 to 36 is a lot less likely to happen than staying stubbornly slightly below replacement level from 28 to 29.

To dodge the argument entirely, I think everyone is hoping that either EMJ rakes at Nashville or Tyler Black figures out 1b, which could obviate this whole issue in a few months.

This discussion caused me to poke around and see if I could find some kind of aggregate data about how MLB players age.  I couldn't -- someone else probably can -- but I did find this fun  2012 Medium piece by Joe Posnanski: 

https://medium.com/joeblogs/aging-with-chart-a098c93e7ed6

As he says, this doesn't prove anything, but it does provide at least some evidence that hitters decline pretty sharply as they move through their 30s.

[wallus]

"Spring Training stats don't mean anything"

"He's washed because of Spring Training stats"

Canha fits the role of what we need much more than Bauers.

[umphrey]

4 minutes ago, wallus said:

"Spring Training stats don't mean anything"

"He's washed because of Spring Training stats"

Canha fits the role of what we need much more than Bauers.

I thought Bauers was the better roster fit, wondering what the argument is for Canha. Maybe vs. LHP?

 

I was thinking Canha is likely going to have a better offensive season but Bauers fits the roster better because he is LH and is a good defensive sub at 1b.

[Kozlowski Klub]

24 minutes ago, gregmag said:

I see both sides of this one.  The pushback for Bauers is that he isn't at a point where he might fall off the aging cliff, a lefty bat makes more sense as a complement to Hoskins, and he's likely somewhat less bad in the outfield than Canha.  The argument isn't that Bauers might be better than we've seen; it's that Canha is 36.  Yes, he was serviceable at 35, which is pretty amazing; but staying amazingly slightly above replacement level from 35 to 36 is a lot less likely to happen than staying stubbornly slightly below replacement level from 28 to 29.

To dodge the argument entirely, I think everyone is hoping that either EMJ rakes at Nashville or Tyler Black figures out 1b, which could obviate this whole issue in a few months.

This discussion caused me to poke around and see if I could find some kind of aggregate data about how MLB players age.  I couldn't -- someone else probably can -- but I did find this fun  2012 Medium piece by Joe Posnanski: 

https://medium.com/joeblogs/aging-with-chart-a098c93e7ed6

As he says, this doesn't prove anything, but it does provide at least some evidence that hitters decline pretty sharply as they move through their 30s.

I understand why Bauers being a lefty makes more sense to pair with Hoskins, but I also think with the current roster construction Canha's ability to hit lefty's adds value. Against a left-handed, you can play Hoskins at DH and Canha at 1B. Then shift Yelich to the outfield and not start one of Mitchell/Frelick against a lefty. Yelich is obviously going to DH a lot but against lefty's it makes more sense to have him play the outfield due to Mitchell/Frelick ability against lefties. 

This obviously assumes everyone is healthy but the way I am looking at it is starting Canha against a lefty instead of one of the outfielders. Against righty's I am guessing Canha will sit more, but lets also not pretend that Jake Bauers is a world beater against righty's just because he bats from the left side. 

I also think this is how the opening day lineup will look against Carlos Rondon. 

[wiguy94]

42 minutes ago, umphrey said:

I thought Bauers was the better roster fit, wondering what the argument is for Canha. Maybe vs. LHP?

 

I was thinking Canha is likely going to have a better offensive season but Bauers fits the roster better because he is LH and is a good defensive sub at 1b.

If we are talking strictly roster fit then Margot is the best fit of the 3 NRI vets, so we can platoon our LHH heavy OF.

[markedman5]

 

[Frisbee Slider]

If Monasterio has options, might as well. He had a nice spring and perhaps this is better for him than being the last person on the bench.

[wallus]

4 hours ago, umphrey said:

I thought Bauers was the better roster fit, wondering what the argument is for Canha. Maybe vs. LHP?

 

I was thinking Canha is likely going to have a better offensive season but Bauers fits the roster better because he is LH and is a good defensive sub at 1b.

Canha can hit vs LHP and. Bauers has been below replacement value for a few seasons. Can he play first and the outfield? Sure, but not well.

[Frisbee Slider]

I can’t imagine wanting Canha to play much more than backup 1B? In which case, his ability to hit LHP is moot since Rhys can do that too.

Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick and Yelich should get 95% of the playing time in the outfield?

[Frisbee Slider]

Mitchell struggled against LHP last year but Frelick’s OPS was nearly identical versus LH/RH.

At some point our prospects aren’t platoon players?

[wallus]

We do know that Bauers doesn't hit RHP well nor does he play good defense or add value on the bases right?

If the option is Bauers or Canha, it's pretty clear to me. 

[Matt Breen]

Jake Bauers has more than 600 ABs over the last two years. He's hit freaking .200. He has a combined bWAR of -1.3. He's not good. He should not be on our roster. And this is done by protecting him against left-handed pitchers. Less than 10% of his at bats have been against lefties the last couple of years. 

He's not a particularly good defender, and his base running is mediocre - at best. 

Please no. Just give Tyler Black the job. Maybe he'll stink, but at least he has some promise to offer - unlike Bauers.

[MNBrew]

We know what Bauers is & it's not anything too good.  Canha would have to slump a good bit to get down to Bauers' level.  I also agree that Black's quite possibly the better long-term fit.

[edfunderburk]

On 3/19/2025 at 10:35 AM, Jopal78 said:

They need someone on the bench who can play 1B so probably Bauers or Canha will be in the 26 man roster. Unless someone is on the waiver wire they like better for that bench role 

I prefer Bauers … younger, better defensively 

[edfunderburk]

19 hours ago, Matt Breen said:

Jake Bauers has more than 600 ABs over the last two years. He's hit freaking .200. He has a combined bWAR of -1.3. He's not good. He should not be on our roster. And this is done by protecting him against left-handed pitchers. Less than 10% of his at bats have been against lefties the last couple of years. 

He's not a particularly good defender, and his base running is mediocre - at best. 

Please no. Just give Tyler Black the job. Maybe he'll stink, but at least he has some promise to offer - unlike Bauers.

I understand your perspective for sure - but Black showed very little in Spring Training 

Yesterday’s game winning homer was his only contribution to date

I love his speed & would be thrilled if he becomes a quality player 

He was impressive in the minors - not sure he will get a chance in Milwaukee 

[wallus]

1 hour ago, edfunderburk said:

I prefer Bauers … better defensively 

Based on what metric(s)?

[edfunderburk]

51 minutes ago, wallus said:

Based on what metric(s)?

I’m old school - no metrics … I just watch the games & share my opinions 

Based on what I saw last year, Bauers was superior to Hoskins at 1B & I anticipate he is better than a 36-year old Canha who is close to the end of his mLB career 

I reserve the right to be wrong!

 

[wallus]

2 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I’m old school - no metrics … I just watch the games & share my opinions 

Based on what I saw last year, Bauers was superior to Hoskins at 1B & I anticipate he is better than a 36-year old Canha who is close to the end of his mLB career 

I reserve the right to be wrong!

 

Yes, I would say Bauers is better than Hoskins but Canha is generally slightly below average. Bauers is rated (from what I have seen) as worse.

[Frisbee Slider]

In 2024:
Bauers had -0.9 dWar in 60 games started at 1B

Canha had -0.5 dWar in 13 games started at 1B

 

 

[jay87shot]

Does Quintana start on the IL if he isn't making his 1st start? I still like Tyler Black as the backup 1st baseman/5th OF/occasional DH/LH bench bat, I get his Spring had been rough. He does match up better as a LH 1st baseman and better OF than Bauers (splitting hairs) and Canha. In all likelihood, Black goes to AAA and get consistent PT for a bit but at some point sooner than later that spot should be his. On top of that, I would let both Canha and Bauers go if/when Black is ready because I think at some point Ernesto Martinez and/or Mike Boeve will likely be ready for a cup of coffee in the bigs.

Contreras, Rhys, Turang, Joey, Dunn, Sal, Mitchell, Chourio, Yeli (everyday)

Haase, Durbin, Bauers (for like a month), Capra (bench)

Freddy, Civale, Nestor, Henderson (rotation to start until Q on roster)

Megill, Huddy, Koenig, Payamps, Peguero, Thomas, Thomas, Rodriguez, Alexander, Uribe (suspended) (pen)

IL=Woody, Quintana, Ashby, Hall, Myers, Perkins (there is a decent rotation there on the IL already)

When Quinata come back Uribe goes back, when Woody is back Alexander/Rodriguez/Henderson, when Mears, Myers, Hall, Ashby, and Yoho are ready it will depend on who is pitching the best at that point.

 

[mudbutt]

Fangraphs has taken note of Capra's power display in Spring Training and put him on their Boom list.  Thinks he has at least earned facing leftys in a platoon role at third base.

[umphrey]

I don't follow MiLB options as close as others but guys like Black and Durbin will often get thrown to AAA to start the year to hoard guys like Capra and Canha. I am expecting to see that again this year to some capacity. 

[Frisbee Slider]

On 3/19/2025 at 11:43 AM, Kozlowski Klub said:

I also think this is how the opening day lineup will look against Carlos Rondon. 

We probably get LHP Fried in game two