Brewers-Cubs NLDS Game One Thread, By The Numbers

[Brewluver]

4 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

One (1): as in the number of hits the Cubs achieved with runners in scoring position in the three game series

They won the series dude.

Do you think it was because of the one called strike, (that was a ball).

So you tell us Slider, why do you think the Pads lost the series ??

[Brewluver]

3 hours ago, Brian said:

A 100% wrong call at the very end of the game did cost the Padres. 

What did it cost them Brian?

[82brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Brewluver said:

They won the series dude.

Do you think it was because of the one called strike, (that was a ball).

So you tell us Slider, why do you think the Pads lost the series ??

Who knows.  Its not like the Baby Bears played great which is why the narrative is that the Padres played so poorly and lost the series, not the other way around.   Maybe the Cubs do end up playing great and win this series.  Maybe they don't but they certainly aren't some juggernaut.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, TURBO said:

Of course it isn't, but bases loaded with NO outs is a hell of a lot different than bases loaded with 1 out, which is what happened.

Especially down by two runs.

You can't pin it on that alone, obviously, but that made a HUGE GIGANTIC difference in the possible outcome of that game.  No matter how you look at it, that was a horrendous screw job by that home plate umpire, that may have had a detrimental effect on that outcome.

We'll never know...

Yep, and based on what was left (namely not left) in the Cubs pen, things could've gone incredibly sideways had that call been made correctly right after he started his 2nd inning of work and had already given up a bomb to Merril.

 

That is exhibit A why the ABS review is going to dramatically help the game - and Id say the same thing if it was the Cubs that got screwed on that call.

[Frisbee Slider]

3 hours ago, Brewluver said:

So you tell us Slider, why do you think the Pads lost the series ??

Game 1: Pivetta mowed down the Cubs through 4. Suzuki and Kelly hit solo HRs in 5th. Cubs bullpen was flawless. 
Game 2: Cubs played poorly, especially on offense. Padres record 11 K.
Game 3: Cubs receive gifts from Darvish in 2nd inning. Cubs score only on solo HR after. Cubs pen runs out of gas and should have had bases loaded nobody out in the ninth. Padres had opportunities but the ninth inning could very easily had been a story of Counsell overusing his bullpen and it backfires in the end. 
One more out and Padres flip their batting order and Tatis/Arraez bat.

 

[Baldkin]

https://brewerfanatic.com/ignore/

Is really nice if you don't want to deal with certain people here. 

[TURBO]

3 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Tomorrow morning. Miz made it, not a big surprise. I think you have to roll the dice with raw talent that has shown it can be effective. 

I can just see it, game 5, Brewers up 2-1, and in comes Miz.  Will be a total crapshoot, with the outcome probably no better than 50/50.

UGH!

I just really hope Murphy knows when to hold 'em, and knows when to fold 'em, or it will be a LONG off season for the kid...

[KCBrewerfan34]

Guys if Bogaerts walks, the next batter gets HBP Keller gets pulled there. Everybody is saying it would have been bases loaded nobody out, it would not have. 2 guys get on there Keller is out 

[treego14]

[treego14]

We will NOT avoid Boyd!

We will VOID Boyd!

We will exalt a

Cy Man -- Peralta!

[Fear The Chorizo]

9 minutes ago, KCBrewerfan34 said:

Guys if Bogaerts walks, the next batter gets HBP Keller gets pulled there. Everybody is saying it would have been bases loaded nobody out, it would not have. 2 guys get on there Keller is out 

Then who comes in to pitch for the Cubs in that spot?

[TURBO]

Cubs’ manager Craig Counsell announced Friday that left-hander Matthew Boyd will start on short rest in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Brewers on Saturday.

 

The 34-year-old southpaw allowed just one run over 4 1/3 innings against the Padres on Tuesday and was extremely efficient — throwing only 58 pitches before giving way to the bullpen. He also warmed up in the bullpen during the ninth inning of Game 3 on Thursday, which could be treated as his usual side session. Either way, it would be surprising to see him work much deeper than he did on Tuesday when battling the Brewers on Saturday. The 34-year-old southpaw held a 7.84 ERA, 1.94 WHIP and a 5/8 K/BB ratio over 10 1/3 innings in two starts against the Brewers during the regular season. He’ll be going up against Brewers’ ace Freddy Peralta.

 

Source: Bruce Levine

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I think starting Boyd says a lot about how CC views Rea/Asad. Or maybe it shows CC wants Rea/Asad to get multiple innings out of the pen.

I don't know. Maybe Boyd dominates. But it's not what I would do. And I think it takes some of the pressure off the Brewers. Cubs start Rea/Asad and win, you're looking at facing their two best arms on full rest down a game. 

It doesn't feel like it has a ton of upside. And if you lose with Boyd, it's a big blow. Just feels like really risking a lot to throw a guy out of his routine when you have options that aren't actually that much worse, considering how Boyd has pitched against us this year.

Make the guy throw some pitches, pressure early, and let's keep their pitching in a tough spot.

[82brewcrew82]

57 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I think starting Boyd says a lot about how CC views Rea/Asad. Or maybe it shows CC wants Rea/Asad to get multiple innings out of the pen.

I don't know. Maybe Boyd dominates. But it's not what I would do. And I think it takes some of the pressure off the Brewers. Cubs start Rea/Asad and win, you're looking at facing their two best arms on full rest down a game. 

It doesn't feel like it has a ton of upside. And if you lose with Boyd, it's a big blow. Just feels like really risking a lot to throw a guy out of his routine when you have options that aren't actually that much worse, considering how Boyd has pitched against us this year.

Make the guy throw some pitches, pressure early, and let's keep their pitching in a tough spot.

Honestly feels like a bit of desperation on the Baby Bears behalf.

[Brian]

6 hours ago, Brewluver said:

What did it cost them Brian?

The controversial called strike three at his calves, umpires need to be better and took Padres right out of the inning, inexcusable: 

• The situation: In the top of the ninth, trailing 3-1, the Padres had a rally started by a solo home run from Jackson Merrill. Bogaerts came up next and worked a full count against Cubs pitcher Brad Keller.
• The call: With the count full, Keller threw a low pitch that was called strike three by home plate umpire D.J. Reyburn. Replays and pitch-tracking data, including ESPN's unofficial strike zone, showed the pitch was outside the strike zone.
• The impact: The poor call was a significant moment in the game. Had Bogaerts been awarded a walk, the Padres would have had runners on first and second with no outs. Instead, he was out with two subsequent batters getting hit by pitches. The inning ended with the Padres stranding runners and losing the game and series

[Team Canada]

In case others, like me, don't have a streaming service that offers TBS: you can get a 21-day free trial of YouTube TV, which conveniently takes you to the World Series...

[KCBrewerfan34]

10 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Then who comes in to pitch for the Cubs in that spot?

Same guy who came in 

[Jake McKibbin]

When Boyd faltered during his first start against the Brewers, it was more his command than anything that caused them to run riot. Uncompetitive misses and some meatball fodder, and with him tiring towards the end of the season combined with a three day rest period, I'm not sure this is the right call from the Cubs.

That being said, this is playoffs. Anyone could get 12 outs from balls smoked right to a fielder

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

58 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

When Boyd faltered during his first start against the Brewers, it was more his command than anything that caused them to run riot. Uncompetitive misses and some meatball fodder, and with him tiring towards the end of the season combined with a three day rest period, I'm not sure this is the right call from the Cubs.

That being said, this is playoffs. Anyone could get 12 outs from balls smoked right to a fielder

Yup, for sure. This isn't me saying the choice won't work out for the Cubs. It just seems like it's the weaker argument.

Edit to add: I suppose the idea is to start Boyd twice, since he can go in Game 4 on full rest. Of course, the Brewers can throw Freddy and Priester two games each too 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

12 hours ago, TURBO said:

I can just see it, game 5, Brewers up 2-1, and in comes Miz.  Will be a total crapshoot, with the outcome probably no better than 50/50.

UGH!

I just really hope Murphy knows when to hold 'em, and knows when to fold 'em, or it will be a LONG off season for the kid...

Ideal use to me is they jump out to an early lead and he pitches the 5th and 6th with a 3-0 lead or something. Has a good outing, builds some confidence.

[Jimbo]

22 hours ago, Brian said:

I see the game one opening Vegas Odds are Brewers favored by 1  1/2 runs. 

That's the run line.  Meaningless.  All the games are 1.5 runs.  The Brewers are -155 to win, a solid favorite.

 

[Brian]

51 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

That's the run line.  Meaningless.  All the games are 1.5 runs.  The Brewers are -155 to win, a solid favorite.

 

What are you talking about?  It's just two different ways to place a MLB bet.  A money line or run line, you can do what you prefer.  The reason there all so similar is because the teams are all so similar in talent in the playoffs. 

[BruisedCrew]

35 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Ideal use to me is they jump out to an early lead and he pitches the 5th and 6th with a 3-0 lead or something. Has a good outing, builds some confidence.

IMHO the only situation to use him is if they are behind by 4 or 5 runs late in the game and don’t want to use one of the relievers they would need to win a game. 

Putting him in with a 3 run lead is an open invitation to seeing the tying run at the plate with nobody out after 2 walks  

Otherwise maybe in the 14th inning when everyone else has been used.

[treego14]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVW4yU0BoYg

Brewer Fever!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

28 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

IMHO the only situation to use him is if they are behind by 4 or 5 runs late in the game and don’t want to use one of the relievers they would need to win a game. 

Putting him in with a 3 run lead is an open invitation to seeing the tying run at the plate with nobody out after 2 walks  

Otherwise maybe in the 14th inning when everyone else has been used.

Short hook. But IMO if they win a championship, he's going to have to contribute meaningfully.