Brewers-Cubs NLDS Game Three Thread - 10/8/2025 @ 4:08PM

[Fear The Chorizo]

6 minutes ago, rluzinski said:

Statistically speaking, a small sample size like that can not begin to prove a reverse split.  His career splits show us exactly what we would expect:

vs RHB: 0.685 OPS (2618 PA)

vs. LHB: 0.742 OPS (2510 PA)

Taillon had very neutral splits for most of his career, then had a couple seasons where he was much tougher on righties than lefties....then in 2025 the changeup became a much larger part of his pitch mix that dramatically improved how he's fared against lefties.

 

If we're sample size hunting for today's game, I don't care what he did up through 2022, or 2023-2024 seasons for that matter, when he was a different pitcher than he's been in 2025 with that changeup facing lefties.

[mudbutt]

7 minutes ago, rluzinski said:

Statistically speaking, a small sample size like that can not begin to prove a reverse split.  His career splits show us exactly what we would expect:

vs RHB: 0.685 OPS (2618 PA)

vs. LHB: 0.742 OPS (2510 PA)

In his case though the dramatic change is due to throwing a kick change up this year.

[rluzinski]

6 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Gee thanks. I think we know this. 2-0 isn't the near-lock that 3-0 in a 7-gamer is, is kind of the point. Teams lose 3 baseball games in a row all the time during the season. You don't even have to go back 10 years to see a team blowing a 2-0 lead in a 5-game series. It's not like it happens all the time, but it's really not that remarkable. 

Plus, any series that goes 3 games without a sweep is 2-1. TLDR is, this thing ain't over.

My predictions, however,

Brewers 3-0 over Cubs

Brewers 4-2 over Dodgers

Brewers 4-3 over Blue Jays

Your point seemed to be that some worry is warranted becomes teams come back all the time down 2-0 in 7 games series.  You seem to not be saying that now, but I have no idea how to parse your previous post to come to any other conclusion.

And yes, when looking at 30 teams over the course of 162 games, many will lose 3 games in a row.  This is the wrong way to look at it, however.  I gave you the odds of two teams with even winning odds/per game,  losing or winning 3 games in a row.  12.5% ain't never.

As I said before, worry about what you want, but the odds are the odds.

 

[Frisbee Slider]

13 minutes ago, rluzinski said:

Statistically speaking, a small sample size like that can not begin to prove a reverse split.  His career splits show us exactly what we would expect:

vs RHB: 0.685 OPS (2618 PA)

vs. LHB: 0.742 OPS (2510 PA)

New change up from Taillon means possible new perspective? Good to have you back for the postseason! 🙂

[rluzinski]

3 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Taillon had very neutral splits for most of his career, then had a couple seasons where he was much tougher on righties than lefties....then in 2025 the changeup became a much larger part of his pitch mix that dramatically improved how he's fared against lefties.

 

If we're sample size hunting for today's game, I don't care what he did up through 2022, or 2023-2024 seasons for that matter, when he was a different pitcher than he's been in 2025 with that changeup facing lefties.

I'm not sure posting career splits qualifies as sample size hunting. 

If you think the change in his pitching repertoire caused the split reduction, I won't argue with you because I have no idea.  All I know is one year sample splits are statistically worthless.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 minute ago, rluzinski said:

I'm not sure posting career splits qualifies as sample size hunting. 

If you think the change in his pitching repertoire caused the split reduction, I won't argue with you because I have no idea.  All I know is one year sample splits are statistically worthless.

The pitch repertoire absolutely changed how LH hitters have fared against Taillon this year - he has stated so multiple times.  I also won't argue that a partial year of splits (Taillon was injured a good chunk of this season) isn't statistically significant in a vacuum - but I think it's worth more than factoring what Taillon did as a Pirate 8-9 seasons ago when he was a completely different pitcher throwing high 90s than he is now.

His 2023 and 2024 seasons he was nails on righties and below average against lefties - 2025 was polar opposite.  If he didn't dramatically improve against lefties this year, he probably isn't starting any playoff games for the Cubs.

I just hope he comes out a bit rusty and the Brewers find holes with solid contact this afternoon

[OldSchoolSnapper]

22 minutes ago, rluzinski said:

Your point seemed to be that some worry is warranted becomes teams come back all the time down 2-0 in 7 games series.  You seem to not be saying that now, but I have no idea how to parse your previous post to come to any other conclusion.

And yes, when looking at 30 teams over the course of 162 games, many will lose 3 games in a row.  This is the wrong way to look at it, however.  I gave you the odds of two teams with even winning odds/per game,  losing or winning 3 games in a row.  12.5% ain't never.

As I said before, worry about what you want, but the odds are the odds.

 

OK.

[BraunyBoy08]

Good to see Chourio in there today. Today is probably the best day to sit him if you were worried at all about his hammy. Must've held up well Monday despite him "feeling it a little".

[RobertCrawley]

42 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Gee thanks. I think we know this. 2-0 isn't the near-lock that 3-0 in a 7-gamer is, is kind of the point. Teams lose 3 baseball games in a row all the time during the season. You don't even have to go back 10 years to see a team blowing a 2-0 lead in a 5-game series. It's not like it happens all the time, but it's really not that remarkable. 

Plus, any series that goes 3 games without a sweep is 2-1. TLDR is, this thing ain't over.

My predictions, however,

Brewers 3-0 over Cubs

Brewers 4-2 over Dodgers

Brewers 4-3 over Blue Jays

I hope we see the Mighty Seafarers in the Big Dance.

[HarryDoyle]

[Brian]

4 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

Major League Baseball (MLB) provides every team with PitchCom devices, not the home team. 

[torts]

I don't know about you guys but I've been watching game 2 reactions from cubs fans to help ease the anxiety of today's game, win or lose.  Those reactions will live on in infamy, and rent free for eternity.  Best afternoon ever. 

 

Let's go!!!!!!!!!!!!!;!!!!

[Fear The Chorizo]

17 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

lol

or, it's just kudos to the bullpen right in front of them cheering as they round 2nd.

If they are relaying anything when they have runners on at 2nd, it may be pitch location/where the catcher is setting up.  If that's the case, it's just laziness on the catcher being too obvious too early.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, OK4BrewCrew said:

Lineup is out. Lockridge is in centerfield over Perkins. Assuming because Taillon has never faced Lockridge yet (as far as I can see) and Perkins is batting .143 against Taillon.

I'm optimistic. I like Lockridge and I think he brings a lot to the table. Get him on first base and put a ton of pressure on a right handed pitcher. 

Thoughts?

If that is true, then Lockridge hasn't  faced Taillon, depends on how you look at it.  To me, when a hitter hasn't faced a given pitcher. the advantage goes to the pitcher, not the hitter.

I don't see the reason to change things up like this.  Starting Bauers over Vaughn, also an unneeded change. I'm saying this because every time I criticize Bauers starting, he has a great game at the plate.  lol  

Yelich leading off?  Didn't seem to work that well at the end of the season when Murphy was outsmarting himself...

All these things will now work out since I am applying the reverse jinx, or is it just a regular jinx?  

[torts]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

If that is true, then Lockridge hasn't  faced Taillon, depends on how you look at it.  To me, when a hitter hasn't faced a given pitcher. the advantage goes to the pitcher, not the hitter.

I don't see the reason to change things up like this.  Starting Bauers over Vaughn, also an unneeded change. I'm saying this because every time I criticize Bauers starting, he has a great game at the plate.  lol  

Yelich leading off?  Didn't seem to work that well at the end of the season when Murphy was outsmarting himself...

All these things will now work out since I am applying the reverse jinx, or is it just a regular jinx?  

Double jinx cancel out well played

[Frisbee Slider]

If the Brewers have been stealing signs, it is very clever they typically only use this advantage for low exit velocity base hits

[bm1090]

2 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Not sure Sunday lineups are supposed to be a thing in October.

Seriously though, not necessarily criticizing the lineup, because Murphy has been tough to question when it comes to results, but I don’t know how Isaac Collins went from leading ROTY candidate to almost completely in the doghouse. It’s not like he fell off a cliff.

Lockridge starting in CF just makes no logical sense to me, particularly against the righty. It seems completely hunch based. Anyone have any analytical explanation for what it might be?

My real thought is he had a kid, he probably isn’t getting much sleep, his performance tanked, and baseball is his 2nd priority right now. He made a ton of careless mistakes against the reds in that last series of the season. If his mind isn’t there (understandably) it’s tough to trust him to start

[liveforoctober]

Taillon in his career has a stolen base % against of 83.5% (96/115). Although this season runners are 10/15 against him.

[TURBO]

Hey Darling, just shut up, can you do that?  Just shut the hell up!

[liveforoctober]

Let's go.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Good start Yeli!  LFG!!!

[RobertCrawley]

Taillon said a bad word.

[adambr2]

Little too aggressive there by Chourio.

[kevinisaname]

Too bad Jackson couldn't get him over to third. Pick him up, Brice!

[torts]

Front row Gary over there getting on the mic