Brandon Woodruff - Heyman: Woody accepts qualifying offer 1 yr/ $22million

[rickh150]

I can’t believe so many are ok with Woody coming back for $22 mil.   Injury prone, noticeable loss of velocity n fastball, playing for a team with middling to lower payroll, and playing for a team ONE or TWO players away from WS…..just crazy to bring him back when we should be looking at pinching pennies to trade a for big bat at SS/1B, extending Turang or Contreras, or sitting on it for later.

Bringing him back at league minimum is almost questionable because I don’t have confidence he will beat out Henderson, Gasser, Ashby, Patrick for a spot!   Last year’s contract was nuts because of the injury.  This is worse….unless they know he won’t be back and this is all about a pick.

[BrewerFan]

On 11/9/2025 at 8:40 AM, MrTPlush said:

 

His best offer may be 3/$60m, but he may take 3/$40mil with an opt-out after year one. 

$8mil

$16mil

$16mil

I think if he gets a 3/40 type deal, he'll have made a mistake turning down the QO.

Pitchers with his pedigree, baring another shoulder injury(which he proved he was back from, so that's a bit of a long shot and I'd assume he'd bet on himself)...  but, even if he were to get injured this year, he's shown enough that I still think he'd get 8 figures next year. 

1/10M

I don't think people realize how many injured pitchers get signed hoping they'll get healthy each year. Maybe it's just because the Brewers don't do it.

But taking 8M/16M/16M vs 22M/?/? would certainly not be betting on himself. 

He'd need 9M a year for 2 years to beat that. Shane Bieber just "shocked" the Jays by opting into 16M PO.

And you can go back and list the guys like Trevor Rosenthal, a reliever who was signed toward the end of the season for 4.5M(not prorated) despite not having thrown in 2 years and being bad the years prior to Kluber or... it's a very long list. 

I would love to see a 3/40 deal for him. 

 

Injuries lead to other injuries. He's got a full off-season with a healthy shoulder and his lat should be fine... early enough. They'll likely be careful with him next year(that's kinda their MO regardless of the pitcher). 

[Jopal78]

On 11/9/2025 at 12:30 AM, BrewerFan said:

If Woodruff declines, Cody Ponce is intriguing to me. 

Longshot, bringing a guy we gave up on back in , but if he gets 3/21, we could use him out of the pen as a long man, or splits innings with Ashby. Ashby goes 4, Ponce goes 3, FB plays up, 97-99 in shorter outings.

He could be a very interesting.

I wonder if he may be wiling to come back to the team that drafted him. Fedde type deal, but he has better stuff.

And I still like Caleb Ferguson. You could get Ponce and Ferguson for the price of Woodruff, but it'd also limit the flexibility you'd have on your 40 man. 

Not to say I'd prefer one of the other, but Ponce 3/21 and Ferguson at 2/12 and potentially a comp pick. Just the type of thing we could do if Woodruff thought he'd get more and declined.

First of all, Ponce sucked in the majors (2.1 HR/9and 11H/9) in a small sample, but such is life for pitchers who spend six years in the minors before their debut.
 

Ponce didn’t really light it up in Japan either: his hits allowed, walks and strikeout ratios remained the same but he kept the ball in the ballpark more, which isn’t surprising in the NPB where homeruns are more rare than in MLB. Then in the inferior KBO his hits allowed went down and strikeouts went up while other ratios remained similar. 
 

Sure looks like another Josh Lindblom to me: a stiff who had a nice year against lower quality hitters than he’d see in the majors.
 

I sure hope the Brewers learned their lesson with Lindblom and  stay well away from Korean league reclamation projects. 

[MrTPlush]

21 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I think if he gets a 3/40 type deal, he'll have made a mistake turning down the QO.

Pitchers with his pedigree, baring another shoulder injury(which he proved he was back from, so that's a bit of a long shot and I'd assume he'd bet on himself)...  but, even if he were to get injured this year, he's shown enough that I still think he'd get 8 figures next year. 

1/10M

I don't think people realize how many injured pitchers get signed hoping they'll get healthy each year. Maybe it's just because the Brewers don't do it.

But taking 8M/16M/16M vs 22M/?/? would certainly not be betting on himself. 

He'd need 9M a year for 2 years to beat that. Shane Bieber just "shocked" the Jays by opting into 16M PO.

And you can go back and list the guys like Trevor Rosenthal, a reliever who was signed toward the end of the season for 4.5M(not prorated) despite not having thrown in 2 years and being bad the years prior to Kluber or... it's a very long list. 

I would love to see a 3/40 deal for him. 

 

Injuries lead to other injuries. He's got a full off-season with a healthy shoulder and his lat should be fine... early enough. They'll likely be careful with him next year(that's kinda their MO regardless of the pitcher). 

You are comparing 1/$22mil and 3/$40mil, but they aren’t technically a bird in each hand. The qualifying offer would be declined a month plus before any multi year deal has ink dries on paper. Also, that was a pretty quick opt-out concept I threw out there…I wouldn’t take the number to heart too much.

Now of course, you could make the claim that even after declining the QO his worst case is like 1/$18mil if he wanted to  take a one year deal and even if the year is a disaster he could trick a team into 1/$10m at least one more time (assuming he ends 2026 healthy)…so even in a nightmare case he can make another $28mil in his career. That is an understandable way to look at it. 

And that’s probably why the QO gets declined as there is virtually zero risk in doing so. There is enough upside some team will toss close to $20mil at him that he has little reason not to explore his market.

[RobertCrawley]

On 11/9/2025 at 8:08 PM, rickh150 said:

I can’t believe so many are ok with Woody coming back for $22 mil.   Injury prone, noticeable loss of velocity n fastball, playing for a team with middling to lower payroll, and playing for a team ONE or TWO players away from WS…..just crazy to bring him back when we should be looking at pinching pennies to trade a for big bat at SS/1B, extending Turang or Contreras, or sitting on it for later.

Bringing him back at league minimum is almost questionable because I don’t have confidence he will beat out Henderson, Gasser, Ashby, Patrick for a spot!   Last year’s contract was nuts because of the injury.  This is worse….unless they know he won’t be back and this is all about a pick.

I'd love to see Woodruff back. He's a competitor and a winner. He's become less of a power pitcher and more about working the batter. We can play with anyone when he's on the mound. With him and Freddy in the rotation, we would seriously contend again.

[Jopal78]

On 11/9/2025 at 8:08 PM, rickh150 said:

I can’t believe so many are ok with Woody coming back for $22 mil.   Injury prone, noticeable loss of velocity n fastball, playing for a team with middling to lower payroll, and playing for a team ONE or TWO players away from WS…..just crazy to bring him back when we should be looking at pinching pennies to trade a for big bat at SS/1B, extending Turang or Contreras, or sitting on it for later.

Bringing him back at league minimum is almost questionable because I don’t have confidence he will beat out Henderson, Gasser, Ashby, Patrick for a spot!   Last year’s contract was nuts because of the injury.  This is worse….unless they know he won’t be back and this is all about a pick.

Yes, the Woodruff QO is mostly about getting a comp pick.

The rest of the above is just an  unrealistic take. Starting pitching is expensive. Scherzer and Verlander at 41 and 42 years old respectively each still made 15 million dollars this past season. From of the rotation starters in today’s game make 28-32+ million dollars a year. 22 million dollars for an oft inured front of the rotation starter still in his prime isn’t actually that outrageous in context. 
 

Then Logan Henderson is coming off a forearm strain which usually is the forerunner to a torn elbow ligament. Gasser has not really pitched since his own TJ. Ashby might be as injury prone as Woodruff missing an entire season with a shoulder injury, Then multiple months in both ‘24 and ‘25 with additional injuries. The Brewers would truly be operating without a safety net counting on any of those players to make 25+ starts for them in ‘26. 

[BrewerFan]

12 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

First of all, Ponce sucked in the majors (2.1 HR/9and 11H/9) in a small sample, but such is life for pitchers who spend six years in the minors before their debut.

So... he was bad in the 55 IP he threw in 2020 and 2021? Quinn Priester was also bad. I don't care.

Ponce went and build up his arm strength and added a plus change. Throws 95-96 hits 98 now.

Lindblom threw 90. So... they're just two guys who pitched in the KBO. I would hope the Brewers don't make the mistake of writing a guy off because they once signed a guy from somewhere and he wasn't good.

No more pitchers from Miss St because Ethan Small was a bust? That'd... be silly. 

[DR28]

When does Woody have until to decide on the QO?

[sveumrules]

51 minutes ago, DR28 said:

When does Woody have until to decide on the QO?

November 18th, so one more week.

[BrewerFan]

14 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

You are comparing 1/$22mil and 3/$40mil, but they aren’t technically a bird in each hand. The qualifying offer would be declined a month plus before any multi year deal has ink dries on paper. Also, that was a pretty quick opt-out concept I threw out there…I wouldn’t take the number to heart too much.

I know, that's why I said IF that were to happen, he'd have made a pretty big mistake(IMO). 

I would think his agent would have some feel for what he could get, but... maybe not. Certainly not always the case. And I know the pay structure was... loose. I'd guess it'd be an opt out but he'd get 8M in that 2nd year for opting out. That way, if he's good enough, he pays off for both sides. If he's not, he's got some security. 

I always think of Sheet's and Harden and the contracts they got after they were hurt and out for a while, but... there are a lot more recent examples.

11 hours ago, RobertCrawley said:

I'd love to see Woodruff back. He's a competitor and a winner. He's become less of a power pitcher and more about working the batter. We can play with anyone when he's on the mound. With him and Freddy in the rotation, we would seriously contend again.

Same here. I just hate when people list the injuries and start with the shoulder. That WAS his injury. He had a capsule injury. Then... it went and he needed surgery on it. That's one injury that takes a very long time. And... then a simple lat strain. 

It's hurt the Brewers due to the timing, but... he's another year removed.

 

I also don't think we made the QO for a pick. Not exclusively. I think the thought process was probably... if he takes a 1 year deal, great, it's low risk. If he opts not to, we get a draft pick. But I suspect they'd prefer he accepts. Just... my opinion.

The predictions on his contracts have varied SO much, it's going to be really interesting to see if he accepts. 

Otherwise, he declines I'm going to guess he ends up in NY for 3/75 or so. The Mets, Stearns, they have young pitching but could use depth and can afford it. OR... maybe the Braves. They'd also make a lot of sense. Sale, Strider and Woodruff as their 1-3.... plus Waldrep and other young arms. 

[homer]

Not sure it's been mentioned but some info on compensation if he signs elsewhere:

Quote

If Woodruff signs elsewhere for more than $50 million, they will receive a draft pick at the end of the first round (if he signs for less than $50 million, the pick would be after Competitive Balance Round B, in the 75 to 80 range).

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6800104/2025/11/12/mlb-offseason-trades-starting-pitching-general-manager-meetings/

[Jopal78]

11 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

So... he was bad in the 55 IP he threw in 2020 and 2021? Quinn Priester was also bad. I don't care.

Ponce went and build up his arm strength and added a plus change. Throws 95-96 hits 98 now.

Lindblom threw 90. So... they're just two guys who pitched in the KBO. I would hope the Brewers don't make the mistake of writing a guy off because they once signed a guy from somewhere and he wasn't good.

No more pitchers from Miss St because Ethan Small was a bust? That'd... be silly. 

No, the point is the KBO is a league with inferior talent to MLB and even the NPB for that matter. Thus the correlation between success in the KBO carrying over to success in the major leagues isn’t great. 
 

Even recent reclamations like Fedde had one nice season in ‘24, then was figured out again and ended up getting released by 3 different clubs in ‘25. 

[nate82]

On 11/8/2025 at 12:29 PM, KCBrewerfan34 said:

They can trade the comp pick can’t they? 

Only competitive balance picks can be traded.

On 11/8/2025 at 9:12 PM, jay87shot said:

Yes

This is incorrect, only competitive balance picks can be traded.

[jay87shot]

I would think that if Luis Severino got 3/67 last year that is almost a guarantee on what Woody should get at minimum. Severino through a bit harder but Woody has a better track record and overall better track record. Obviously a team will do extensive mdeical checks but if he is truly 100% healthy a starter of his caliber should get around $25 million. Especially if he gains a mph or two back being farther removed from surgery and  having a full offseason to work on what he needs to. I would love for him to just accept the QO and force Mark A. to cough up a little extra out of his pocket this year.

Do player options count toward the total of the $50 million threshold. My guess would be that team options would (just buyouts/guarenteed money) and that a player option should.

[BrewerFan]

19 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

No, the point is the KBO is a league with inferior talent to MLB and even the NPB for that matter. Thus the correlation between success in the KBO carrying over to success in the major leagues isn’t great. 
 

Even recent reclamations like Fedde had one nice season in ‘24, then was figured out again and ended up getting released by 3 different clubs in ‘25. 

We're cutting and pasting now rather than showing links? It's funny, I put that in a ChatGTP search and it shows an article from the Brewers potentially signing him to a Minor League deal before 2023. 

So... kinda pointless, but maybe someone wrote the exact same thing about him recently and they're all wrong.

 

Quote

 Ponce’s velocity has taken a notable step forward. After sitting 93.2 mph with his heater back in 2020-21, he now sits 94-98 mph and has added a kick changeup that wasn’t part of his repertoire during his MLB run.

Ponce throws harder and misses bats at a higher rate than either Fedde or Hart did during their time in South Korea. If Ponce indeed opts for a return to North American ball, a multi-year deal — perhaps even one topping Fedde’s $15MM with the White Sox — shouldn’t come as a major surprise.

93.2 to touching 98 in 180 IP as a starter when I'm suggesting bringing him over as a long man IF Woodruff declines is "basically the same." 

 

Agree or don't... just don't pretend he's "basically the same" in terms of stuff as he was when we drafted him. And I think you know that or you'd have posted a link... since pretty much EVERY single link talks about how his stuff got much better this past year. 

[BrewerFan]

16 hours ago, nate82 said:

Only competitive balance picks can be traded.

This is incorrect, only competitive balance picks can be traded.

There have been discussions about allowing teams to trade their picks, right?

I'm pretty indifferent... but on occasion, it'd be pretty interesting. When... Paul Skenes is coming out, or Harper, Strasburg. Guys who are viewed as clear-clear cut #1 picks or even in a 2010 like class with Harper, Tallion and Machado, 3 guys who were 1-1 picks in MOST classes. 

 

[nate82]

11 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

There have been discussions about allowing teams to trade their picks, right?

Not really.  I think MLB doesn’t want teams trading away their future kind of like what happened in the NBA before they put rules in place.  

[Jopal78]

16 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

We're cutting and pasting now rather than showing links? It's funny, I put that in a ChatGTP search and it shows an article from the Brewers potentially signing him to a Minor League deal before 2023. 

So... kinda pointless, but maybe someone wrote the exact same thing about him recently and they're all wrong.

 

93.2 to touching 98 in 180 IP as a starter when I'm suggesting bringing him over as a long man IF Woodruff declines is "basically the same." 

 

Agree or don't... just don't pretend he's "basically the same" in terms of stuff as he was when we drafted him. And I think you know that or you'd have posted a link... since pretty much EVERY single link talks about how his stuff got much better this past year. 

 If I post the link, you don’t bother to  read it claiming you remember it and it didn’t say what I said it did. (Contreras extension talk) This time I post text (recent Forbes sports article) and you criticize its authenticity for not having a link. Ok troll. 

[BrewerFan]

26 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

 If I post the link, you don’t bother to  read it claiming you remember it and it didn’t say what I said it did. (Contreras extension talk) This time I post text (recent Forbes sports article) and you criticize its authenticity for not having a link. Ok troll. 

Yes. I absolutely do criticize it's authenticity. 

And I don't know what the hell the first sentence means. "If I post the link, you don't bother to read it claiming you remember it and it didn't say what I said it did(Contreras extension talk). 

Yeah, you didn't post think link THEN either, you just posted two sentences of a VERY long article.

 

I ACTUALLY posted links from before AND after when he said he was open to an extension. LOL... and I'm trolling? 

[sveumrules]

On 11/12/2025 at 12:14 PM, jay87shot said:

I would think that if Luis Severino got 3/67 last year that is almost a guarantee on what Woody should get at minimum.

Woodruff has thrown 131 IP the last three years and is headed into his age 33 season.

Severino had thrown 373 IP the previous three seasons and was headed into his age 31 season when he signed.

No doubt Woody has been a better pitcher when available, but that’s a big edge in health / age for Luis.

Believe Severino also got some extra juice on his deal because the A’s had to overpay to get him to come pitch in their rinky dink minor league park.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Woody gets three guaranteed years, but I still think with his age / health scenario that two guaranteed (with some kind of option tacked on) is where his market ends up if the QO isn’t accepted.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Not really.  I think MLB doesn’t want teams trading away their future kind of like what happened in the NBA before they put rules in place.  

I guess that... shouldn't have been so much a question as a statement. The MLBPA proposed allowing draft picks to be traded in the past and they've tabled it. Manfred doesn't seem to be opposed to it.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/07/which-other-draft-picks-are-eligible-to-be-traded-before-sunday.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Quote

Fans would largely welcome the advent of additional selections becoming eligible to be traded, but that’s not in the cards for now. MLBPA executive director Bruce Meyer joined Foul Territory earlier this week and told hosts Scott Braun, Erik Kratz and A.J. Pierzynski that the union is in favor of trading draft picks and has unsuccessfully raised the issue in past waves of collective bargaining (video link, draft pick talk coming around the one hour, 12-minute mark).

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/manfred-mlb-open-to-discussing-draft-pick-trading-in-the-future/

[nate82]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

Manfred doesn't seem to be opposed to it.

It is not really Manfred's call.  It is the owners call to make.  This may come up in the next CBA but I wouldn't hold my breath on the owners approving it.  

From a year ago: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/rob-manfred-hints-at-changes-to-rules-on-trading-draft-picks.html

Quote

“The positions the clubs have taken over time in terms of what they want us to do at the table has been a product of a balance between flexibility in terms of utilizing the resources available to you on the one hand and paternalism on the other—that is I’m going to prevent you from doing acts because I think it would be stupid,” Manfred said. “I don’t think we have that many stupid clubs. We’ll see how it shakes out. We will go through our (collective) bargaining prep,” he continued. “The clubs are really sophisticated now. I do think that there’s a really good argument for allowing them to decide how to use their resources.”

There is probably one "stupid" team left that would ruin it for others and they are in a large market with the Dodgers.  The Angels are the "stupid" team here and probably would have traded all of their 1st round picks and then some when they had Ohtani and Trout on their team.  That market is really important to MLB even if it is dominated right now by the Dodgers.  

[BrewerFan]

19 minutes ago, nate82 said:

It is not really Manfred's call.  It is the owners call to make.  This may come up in the next CBA but I wouldn't hold my breath on the owners approving it.  

From a year ago: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/rob-manfred-hints-at-changes-to-rules-on-trading-draft-picks.html

There is probably one "stupid" team left that would ruin it for others and they are in a large market with the Dodgers.  The Angels are the "stupid" team here and probably would have traded all of their 1st round picks and then some when they had Ohtani and Trout on their team.  That market is really important to MLB even if it is dominated right now by the Dodgers.  

I'm not saying it's coming or it's not coming, just that the MLBPA has proposed it. I'm not really sure why they'd be invested in it, but they've brought it up and the Commissioner has talked about it. 

The Angels... definitely would have blown up their future draft picks...so would the White Sox and Rockies I'm guessing, but... they blow it either way. Prime Mike Trout and Ohtani... and you get 1 playoff appearance with one of them. 

I doubt it's going to be a focal point of the next CBA given what's expected. It just seems a bit odd. The only league the protects teams from their own stupidity. 

 

I know some Dallas fans that wish other leagues that protected franchises from their own stupidity. Nico Harrison may still have a job. 

[RobertCrawley]

I guess we find out today.

I'm crossing my fingers he doesn't end up a cub or a card.

[umphrey]

A reader poll at MLBTR had him 4th most likely to accept at 12% for what it's worth.