Brandon Woodruff - Heyman: Woody accepts qualifying offer 1 yr/ $22million

[adambr2]

3 hours ago, torts said:

He's totally staying if he's going to make 32 million in a year

$10M of that is independent of anything else. He’s getting 10M from us for the buyout regardless of what he does. If he gets 3/75 from another club, he’ll get $85M total, 75M from them and 10M from us. 

So while it’s true that he’s going to get 32M+ from us if he accepts the QO, you can’t look at it like we’re offering him 1/32 because that’s not the situation.

I do think there’s a chance he accepts, though.

[thebruce44]

The OQ is a great system for the Brewers, its like a franchise tag but cheaper than the prime NFL positions. If Woody accepts for next year at $22k, we know they can temporarily increase payroll and its not a long term commitment. Its pretty likely he would provide more than that in value.

[BrewerFan]

On 11/6/2025 at 7:14 PM, Jopal78 said:

Sure he hit .235 but his OBP was .348 and his slugging was .464. Away from Yankee Stadium he was a monster in ‘25 .269/.367/.537.

Grisham would have lead the Brewers in slugging and homers in 25. He plays CF and won’t be 30 until the 2027 season.

Predicting contract length is hard, but Grisham is more than likely  closer to 20 million AAV than 15 (Hoskins older and coming off a major injury  got 17 mil AAV with the Brewers) as refernced in the above projection . 

There's... really not much of a comp to Hoskins. 

Grisham's numbers the previous 3 years were .191/.298/.353 with a .651 OPS. and his value was driven almost entirely by his defense(what little value he had). 

He was basically Blake Perkins except... he's not capable of playing CF any longer... before this year which is a pretty extreme outlier.

Compare that to Rhys Hoskins...who isn't really relevant here his worst year of his career before tearing his ACL was the year before.
His career numbers in Philly- .242/.353/.492 and .846
His WORST, the year was the year before he tore his ACL -.246/.332/.462 794 OPS and hit...33 HRs. 

He was a homegrown and fan favorite for a big market team

That he'd have led the Brewers in HRs or SLG doesn't mean he's worth 20M+ next year(or 15M over 4-5 years). Jo Adell, Taylor Ward, Jorge Polanco all had better SLG and I wouldn't pay any of them. 

In any event, anything near 4/90 for Grisham is... kinda silly. 

The Yankees CAN afford to piss money away, but with Dominguez, Spencer Jones, Jazz Chisholm. I'd sign Bichette and move him to 2B and Jazz to 3B or the OF before paying what you know is going to be a bad deal to Grisham. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Milwaukee has frequently been comfortable spending money on one or two year commitments. Peralta, Woodruff and our cast of young starters could be formidable.

[duewizard]

I like the move. You either keep Woody, who has proven he is good post injury (and my understanding is the new injury shouldn't be a problem), or you get a high pick with its associated high bonus money.

[Frisbee Slider]

I can’t imagine a better player that could conceivably sign with us on a one-year $22 million deal.

at the same time, I haven’t thought very hard about this.

[Jopal78]

5 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

There's... really not much of a comp to Hoskins. 

Grisham's numbers the previous 3 years were .191/.298/.353 with a .651 OPS. and his value was driven almost entirely by his defense(what little value he had). 

He was basically Blake Perkins except... he's not capable of playing CF any longer... before this year which is a pretty extreme outlier.

Compare that to Rhys Hoskins...who isn't really relevant here his worst year of his career before tearing his ACL was the year before.
His career numbers in Philly- .242/.353/.492 and .846
His WORST, the year was the year before he tore his ACL -.246/.332/.462 794 OPS and hit...33 HRs. 

He was a homegrown and fan favorite for a big market team

That he'd have led the Brewers in HRs or SLG doesn't mean he's worth 20M+ next year(or 15M over 4-5 years). Jo Adell, Taylor Ward, Jorge Polanco all had better SLG and I wouldn't pay any of them. 

 

 

That said, I don't really see how Hoskins is relevant here and an ACL is a major injury in that it takes a while to heal, but it's not hard to come back from. Especially for a guy who doesn't rely on speed.

In any event, anything near 4/90 for Grisham is... kinda silly. 

The Yankees CAN afford to piss money away, but with Dominguez, Spencer Jones, Jazz Chisholm. I'd sign Bichette and move him to 2B and Jazz to 3B or the OF before paying what you know is going to be a bad deal to Grisham. 

My point isn’t about Hoskins, it is what the going rate for free agents is. Spend a minute looking around at what even mediocre free agents with warts are getting. I think you will find, any player who plugs in as an everyday player is close to $15-18 million: Hoskins, Joc Pederson, Profar etc. 

Career year by Grisham in ‘25, yeah maybe. He wouldn’t be the first player to cash in after a career year. For sure there will be teams looking for an everyday center fielder or to add power and speed to their lineup and he’s coming off a big time season. So you might think he’s trash but the demand will likely be there .

[yoshii8]

I don’t love it on the surface. He pitched good this year but his body couldn’t hold up. The fact that he may make $32 million next year is kind of crazy to me. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It isn't a question of $32 million. 

The question to ask yourself is would you rather pay $22 million for Woodruff to pitch for the Brewers or $10 million for him to pitch for someone else. 

They likely made the QO for that exact reason. $10 million for a guy to play somewhere else is just an awful use of resources for the Brewers. And it doesn't screw them over long term. It is an easy question for me because they won't get a better SP to sign for one year and $22 million. Hypothetically if they did, it would still be at a cost of $32 million as they'd still pay Woodruff.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

9 hours ago, thebruce44 said:

The OQ is a great system for the Brewers, its like a franchise tag but cheaper than the prime NFL positions. If Woody accepts for next year at $22k, we know they can temporarily increase payroll and its not a long term commitment. Its pretty likely he would provide more than that in value.

If he accepts for $22,000 that's incredible.

That said I agree. The offers shows we are going to try and do something next year, IMO.

[sveumrules]

5 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

In any event, anything near 4/90 for Grisham is... kinda silly. 

Looks like Kiley's 4/90 at ESPN is the high bid on Grisham with MLBTR at 4/66 and FanGraphs at 3/54.

First guy that came to mind for me was Profar as someone with a track record of mostly blah before putting up a big walk year and he got 3/42 going into his age 32 season as a poor defensive LF.

18-23 Profar (2,905 PA)
97 wRC+ | -46.4 DEF | 4.8 WAR
2024 Profar (668 PA)
139 wRC+ | -10.6 DEF | 4.3 WAR

19-24 Girsham (2,250 PA)
95 wRC+ | +23.4 DEF | 9.6 WAR
2025 Grisham (581 PA)
129 wRC+ | -6.0 DEF | 3.2 WAR

Trent is three years, eight months younger and has played almost exclusively CF his whole career (even if his metrics did take a hit this past season), so I'd guess that gets him at least an extra year and a higher AAV than Jurickson. But yeah, feels like Grisham will end up closer to the MLBTR and FG predictions than to Kiley's number.

Also, didn't see it mentioned elsewhere upthread but looks like MLBTR has the high bid on Woodruff at 3/66.

[endaround]

11 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

It isn't a question of $32 million. 

The question to ask yourself is would you rather pay $22 million for Woodruff to pitch for the Brewers or $10 million for him to pitch for someone else. 

They likely made the QO for that exact reason. $10 million for a guy to play somewhere else is just an awful use of resources for the Brewers. And it doesn't screw them over long term. It is an easy question for me because they won't get a better SP to sign for one year and $22 million. Hypothetically if they did, it would still be at a cost of $32 million as they'd still pay Woodruff.

He is getting paid $10 million no matter what.  It isn't for next year, its for the past two years. So it's not $10 million or $22 million.  It's $10 million and $22 million.

As to if he'll be worth $22 million, well he wasn't worth the $17 million he was paid last contract.

[mudbutt]

Yeah I don’t get the obsession with the 10 mil.  Just look at as if he was paid 15 mil last season instead of a paltry 5 mil.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

8 minutes ago, endaround said:

He is getting paid $10 million no matter what.  It isn't for next year, its for the past two years. So it's not $10 million or $22 million.  It's $10 million and $22 million.

As to if he'll be worth $22 million, well he wasn't worth the $17 million he was paid last contract.

That's literally my point. He is getting the $10 million regardless. So the question to ask is not if he's worth a $32 million contract next year. 

I very clearly said it isn't $10m or $22m. The $10m is a sunk cost. Point is if they offer him $10 and $12 he quite possibly goes some place else and we are still paying the $10. 

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, endaround said:

As to if he'll be worth $22 million, well he wasn't worth the $17 million he was paid last contract.

Woody put up 1.5 rWAR | 1.8 fWAR last year with the team going 10 W - 2 L in his 12 games started.

What kind of production would he have needed to put up to break even on that $17M (spread out over multiple years and payments to reduce the actual value) in your eyes? 

[homer]

Dodgers will sign him for 2 years/$40 million and only pitch him in Sept and Oct

[OldSchoolSnapper]

12 minutes ago, homer said:

Dodgers will sign him for 2 years/$40 million and only pitch him in Sept and Oct

I mean, that is sort of exactly what I envisioned happening here. The QO will at least make him have to think about staying/make another team really pay up and commit. It's a smart move by the Brewers imo, no long-term consequence if he accepts, and at least makes someone else take a real risk. Someone will have to offer him $23/1 to get him to go, or commit years.

Maybe they are planning to trade Peralta and want the stability? Who knows, Either way I think they thought it through and are happy to eat the $22m for a year if he takes it.

[Sixtolezcano]

Wishing Woody would accept the OQ of $22M is like me wishing that I would dig up a 2 lb gold nugget while planting my vegetable garden next spring. Chances are extremelyunlikely.

[DR28]

3 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Milwaukee has frequently been comfortable spending money on one or two year commitments. Peralta, Woodruff and our cast of young starters could be formidable.

Agreed.... Peralta, Woody, Miz, Priester and Patrick.... Really like that rotation!

[wallus]

You can tell the team puts Woody above most other guys by how he is treated. I doubt many other injured players get the contract they gave him and now to risk the QO just shows how highly he is thought of.

I think there is a decent chance he accepts

[Roderick]

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

Agreed.... Peralta, Woody, Miz, Priester and Patrick.... Really like that rotation!

I suspect if Woody takes the QO, the Brewers will be much more inclined to trade Peralta.   

[Fear The Chorizo]

39 minutes ago, Roderick said:

I suspect if Woody takes the QO, the Brewers will be much more inclined to trade Peralta.   

Unless a team knocks the Brewer's socks off, I think there is 0 percent chance Peralta gets traded before the 2026 season starts - This of all seasons should be the year the Brewers retain and stockpile as much talent as they already have in the organization, because I think there's a legit shot there won't be a 2027 season.  Not the offseason for the Brewers to trade proven MLB quality for prospects - especially considering the depth they already have in their system

[SeaBass]

19 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Unless a team knocks the Brewer's socks off, I think there is 0 percent chance Peralta gets traded before the 2026 season starts - This of all seasons should be the year the Brewers retain and stockpile as much talent as they already have in the organization, because I think there's a legit shot there won't be a 2027 season.  Not the offseason for the Brewers to trade proven MLB quality for prospects - especially considering the depth they already have in their system

I agree with this. By that same argument though, might some MLB teams be willing to make an offer that would knock the Brewers socks off knowing that there might not be baseball in 2027?

[Lathund]

If the Brewers aren't worried about the late-season lat injury, then extending the QO was a no-brainer and we should hope that he accepts, or that the leverage of the QO helps a multi-year deal at a lower AAV be made. Woody showed that he still has it, and that he has the ability to adapt his game. Another season removed from the injury should have him stronger as well. Having Woody (And hopefully Freddy) around all the young pitchers can only be a positive. 

[CheezWizHed]

3 hours ago, homer said:

Dodgers will sign him for 2 years/$40 million and only pitch him in Sept and Oct

And defer $38M over the next 20 years... 

2 hours ago, Roderick said:

I suspect if Woody takes the QO, the Brewers will be much more inclined to trade Peralta.   

I doubt it.  Playoff income should help the coffers a little bit.  I don't think we were exactly pushing the line last year either. Plus you have Rhyse coming off the books.