Ashby Trade Possible?

[rickh150]

I guess I had been thinking about this last year already.  Are the Brewers going to be paying big money for anyone in the bullpen? And if they are, will it be to anyone who isn’t a closer? Going forward, it’s 5.7 in 2026, then 7.7.  Then it is club options at 9 and 11.  

To me, his contract is that of a starter. The Brewers would prefer a lefty in the rotation so he might get inside track to start in 2026. Yet the leash will not be long considering they perhaps have 12 potential starters to the rotation. 

So that brings us to the trade. He had a great year, filled a huge spot n the pen and would hate to lose his production in 2026. Yet, if you noticed, we just traded for a guy most like Ashby!  Hard throwing lefty, possible starter…Zerpa has similar stuff in similar role and is much cheaper at only 1.25 in 26 with threes years left. 

I dare say that the Brewers are looking to move Ashby now that he had a really good year and with a great contract for a bigger market team.  If he struggles, they simply let him go.  Even a team struggling with a starting rotation would be interested, regardless of market.  Or the Brewers take a hard look at starting him, giving him 6 or 7 starts to see if they can get even more from him.  

Regardless if this happens, his days in his current role are numbered to 2026 at the most with the Brewers.

 

[sveumrules]

The 4/35 remaining on Ashby's contract is a bargain for a leverage reliever.

There are 204 pitchers with at least 70 IP out of the bullpen the last two years, Aaron's ranks are...

49 ERA- (4th) | 57 FIP- (5th) | 28 HR9+ (7th) | 142 GB+ (8th) | 135 K+ (23rd)

Even his walk rate, which posters complain about regularly, is better than average with a 96 BB+ (76th).

Devin Williams (96 ERA- | 60 FIP- last two years) just got 3/51 coming off a dumpster fire season
Edwin Diaz (62 ERA- | 65 FIP- last two years) got 3/69
Robert Suarez (72 ERA- | 79 FIP- last two years) got 3/45
Tyler Rogers (59 ERA- | 81 FIP- last two years) got 3/37
Ryan Helsley (78 ERA- | 80 FIP- last two years) got 2/28
Luke Weaver (80 ERA- | 85 FIP- last two years) got 2/22
Brad Keller (71 ERA- | 90 FIP- last two years) got 2/22
Emilio Pagan (79 ERA- | 87 FIP- last two years) got 2/20
Kyle Finnegan (86 ERA- | 90 FIP- last two years) got 2/19 
Raisel Iglesias (61 ERA- | 74 FIP- last two years) got $16M for his age 36 season.

[Roderick]

25 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The 4/35 remaining on Ashby's contract is a bargain for a leverage reliever.

Not disagreeing, but the Brewers try not to pay the bullpen if they can get away with it. 

I agree that I think the Brewers will be looking to see what they can get for him now, especially if they keep Peralta.  If there is not enough return, they will be pushing him to be a starter.  If that doesn't work, in the bullpen for another year, but definitely gone then after 2026.

[TURBO]

Yeah, I don't think that $ is a reach for the quality reliever he has become.

However, I'd rather see him get a real opportunity to start in 2026.  He can always return to the bullpen if things don't work.

[rickh150]

What  other teams pay good relievers is irrelevant.  I believe he is a candidate for trade because we don’t…and the trade for Cerpa and signage of other lefties makes me think it is coming sooner rather than later.

[rickh150]

Brewers offer Peña, Ashby, and Hardin for Skubal? Fair price? 

[nate82]

12 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

What  other teams pay good relievers is irrelevant.  I believe he is a candidate for trade because we don’t…and the trade for Cerpa and signage of other lefties makes me think it is coming sooner rather than later.

Money isn’t the factor that the Brewers determine who gets traded it’s how close they are to free agency and if they can get players back that will improve the team.  Williams and Hader were traded because of how close they were to free agency not their cost.

The Brewers signing other relievers has no impact on the Brewers plans for Ashby as the Brewers tend to like having depth in the bullpen just like other teams do.  Though the Brewers do tend to bring in more depth than other teams do.  Most teams are going to need more relievers than they have in their opening day roster throughout the season due to injuries or the relievers just sucking.

The Brewers adding to the bullpen probably has more to do with them seeing Ashby as a starter and wanting more depth in the bullpen.  I wouldn’t be surprised if both Hall and Ashby start out as starters in the rotation during spring training and the first month of the season before one is moved to the bullpen.  The same can probably be said about Gasser. 

[rickh150]

Money is of course the deciding factor…they may not be willing on principle to pay him that much as a reliever.  If he is making the minimum for the next two/three years this is not discussed.  

For Ashby, it seems to be starting ALREADY to fill his spot.  And it’s understandable to want to get something for him in a bullpen seemingly filled with good pitchers and cheaper options. He arguably has more value in trade than anyone else in our bullpen minus Uribe if other teams view him as a starter.

[TURBO]

I'm not 100% convinced that WE don't view him as a starter...

I think he gets a shot in 2026.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

What  other teams pay good relievers is irrelevant.  I believe he is a candidate for trade because we don’t

The relevance of what other teams pay relievers is it helps to determine how much surplus value Ashby has on his deal.

The Brewers paid Devin Williams $7.25M in 2024, not too different than paying Ashby $9M (instead of a $1M buyout) in 2028.

They paid Hader $11M all the way back in 2022, with seven yeas of MLB inflation Ashby’s $13M option for 2029 is probably cheaper in relative dollars.

[Scooterfletcher]

Would be interesting if we can piece together a Duran trade with Ashby and Myers plus.

[Sugarrayray]

5 hours ago, TURBO said:

Yeah, I don't think that $ is a reach for the quality reliever he has become.

However, I'd rather see him get a real opportunity to start in 2026.  He can always return to the bullpen if things don't work.

I agree it’s not a reach. However, I would like to avoid him starting in any way - there is a jarring gap between his starter/reliever splits, but more importantly, getting Ashby through last season healthy is a bit more of a miracle than we seem to think. If that works for his body, messing with that because he gets paid a certain amount or for any other reason seems like too big a risk for this team.

[nate82]

53 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Would be interesting if we can piece together a Duran trade with Ashby and Myers plus.

[brewmann04]

Think they try Ashby or hall or Hlasser as starters 

[DR28]

Peralta/Woody/Miz/Priester/Ashby

Would make one nasty rotation!

[jay87shot]

If we do need to cut salary this year Ashby could make sense. He could bring back a decent return, his production from last year could be replaced, and we have depth. I personally would like to give him another chance to be a starter and further improve his value. If he can put it together his stuff is close to a young Clayton Kershaw. Obviously his control needs to take another step or two. 

[KCBrewerfan34]

11 hours ago, jay87shot said:

If we do need to cut salary this year Ashby could make sense. He could bring back a decent return, his production from last year could be replaced, and we have depth. I personally would like to give him another chance to be a starter and further improve his value. If he can put it together his stuff is close to a young Clayton Kershaw. Obviously his control needs to take another step or two. 

Why on earth would we need to cut salary coming off a major league leading 97 win season?? Curious thought process. 

[Outlander]

5 hours ago, KCBrewerfan34 said:

Why on earth would we need to cut salary coming off a major league leading 97 win season?? Curious thought process. 

Because Ken Rosenthal said so. I do agree, cutting payroll isn't necessary for 2026 and hard disagree from a previous post that money is the deciding factor.

[SF70]

6 hours ago, KCBrewerfan34 said:

Why on earth would we need to cut salary coming off a major league leading 97 win season?? Curious thought process. 

Because the team’s local TV revenue might get slashed with the news that Fan Duel might be dissolving. 

[Frisbee Slider]

The Brewers extended Ashby because they really like him and have him at a controllable price. 

Shocked if they trade him.

Plus, we need him to be our opener 75 times this season.

[rickh150]

Whether they like him or not is not what I question….I think they do. Just look at his usage. He is a cog to the whole operation.

However, they have signed a few lefty pen guys this offseason and their big trade thus far is for another big lefty reliever/opener,  I don’t see the Brewers throwing biggerish money this year (5.7) and definitely not next year (7.7) for what he does, respectfully.  And even more than this, those two option years thereafter give even more “value” in dealing him now to a bigger market looking for a big arm and potential starter.  I doubt the team wants to squander the opportunity to gamble with his current value and not even look for a trade with him.

Moreover, an injury plagued year throws all this seemingly out the window.  They will be “forced” to keep him next year and the options would likely not be picked up. Also, if the plan is to possibly start him this year, there is even more potential for injury.  And the bigger question would be why even try to start him this year when we have ten to twelve guys vying for a rotation spot in spring training? They likely want a lefty in the rotation, but it might be too big of risk to even try pushing him to do this when his role on the team has been established.

Maybe I’m jumping the gun here. Maybe this is a year off and will be dealt with next offseason.  I honestly don’t want to see him go.  But signs seem to be pushing him out the door because of his contract, other recent lefty acquisitions, and the bigger idea that Brewers don’t pay bigger money to multi inning guys in the pen not established as a closer. They have had great options in the pen on the cheap for several years now.

 

[KCBrewerfan34]

Is there data that says starters get hurt more than relievers? 

[rickh150]

3 hours ago, KCBrewerfan34 said:

Is there data that says starters get hurt more than relievers? 

I would think the more you throw the more it is likely to get injured.

Also, there is some data out there for milb…Over twice as likely to get hurt as a starter.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8775284/

[KCBrewerfan34]

Thank you Rick 

[jay87shot]

On 12/31/2025 at 8:22 AM, KCBrewerfan34 said:

Why on earth would we need to cut salary coming off a major league leading 97 win season?? Curious thought process. 

We are already over last year's salary and we are just always needing to be salary concious. We will also have to add some players during the season. There have been reports that the team will likely need to shed some salary going into the season. I would love to not have to cut any money and still add. Peralta and Megill make the most sense to shed some money (maybe Vaughn if you have faith in Bauers last month). After that Ashby does make a little sense, especially with the value high end stuff contollable arms can get in value return. Add in some injury and regression concerns and it wouldnt be a terrible idea. As posted in my original post, I would prefer to keep Ashby and start him in an attempted to cash in on that upside.