1/10 of the Way

[jay87shot]

Today will be game 16 of the year roughly 1/10th of the way through. Obviously it is early and after getting swept by the Nats vibes aren't great at the moment. Injuries have been rough but the season is young and I don't think anyone else in the Central has been amazing even with the Pirates and Cards being better than expected early. Where are each of you currently with expectations and overall thoughts about the team so far?

[TURBO]

Feeling pretty negative at the moment.

1B, SS, 3B, and 2 of the 3 OF positions are terrible.  (2 of 3 is being generous)  We are talking 5 or 6 of the 9 offensive positions are nothing but crap.  Pretty tough to win with a putrid offense.  Injuries have killed us obviously, but when Chourio, Vaughn and now Yelich get back, will it be too late?

Don't know what to think about the bullpen.  Hopefully, it sorts itself out, but if we continue to ride Ashby like we have, he'll be on the IL by the end of June.  We just aren't used to the inconsistency we've seen from the bullpen so far.  It needs to improve.

Starting rotation is probably ok.  Woodruff looked great yesterday, hopefully his velocity improves as we move along.  Looks like Harrison dodged a bullet with his knee.  The Miz is The Miz!  Need a good showing from the rest of this group, Too early to pass judgement on this group as of now.

Murphy has not looked the part so far.  I don't believe he is a very good game manager, and with this roster, his flaws may be exposed more than in the past.

I think we are looking at a .500 season from here on out, that's my gut feeling.  It could be better, and could easily be worse if things don't take a turn.  We can't count on a weak division to float us through to the playoffs this year.  Pitt and Cin are obviously better, and the Cubs, though they look like a mess now, should be a lot better.  

 

[Playing Catch]

54 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Feeling pretty negative at the moment.

Me too. I'm worried that the league has made up a lot of ground on whatever the Brewers magic was. Or maybe just more comprehensive scouting on how the Brewers win games and how to counter it.

It's also very possible that the Nats are just that much better than they were a year ago, and the Brewers got sucker-punched while they were already feeling weak.

Last season started really slow, too.

[jay87shot]

I will say I am still very positive, yes this has been a rough stretch but I think there have been enough bright spots to be able to turn this around.

Offense- Injuries have hurt and clearly are leading to some inconsistencies (hopefully good Yeli news is incoming). For the most part there has been more good than bad, Contreras, Yeli, Bauers, Sanchez, Turang, and Mitchell are off to very good starts and Hamilton and Lockridge have been solid.  Rengifo, Sal, Perk, and Joey have been rough but Sal is the only one that I would say is not expected and I think most of us have faith he will figure it out. Chourio is hopefully a week or two away which would leave the 3B/SS as the hopefully only hole in the lineup. Overall I will give it like a B-

Defense- Somehow Turang and Sal are -1 DRS by baseball.reference which is strange to me. Overall I think the d has been solid even if there was a difficult play missed here or there. Rengifo and Hamilton have done a great job with the glove and there really aren't any defense weak spots unless Sanchez is playing 1st. Overall B+

Starting Pitching- For me this is a bit hard to judge, Misi, Woody, Harrison, and Patrick have all been solid but not really special (outside of Misi's K's). The staff hasn't soaked up a ton of innings and the 5th man/opener/spot starters Sproat/Drohan/Henderson/Ashby haven't been good at all. I have a lot of faith that the 4 guys will build upon a decent start and someone will claim the 5th spot however there is room to go. I think base on result I would give the starters a B- but because they have hurt the pen with lack of innings I will lower it to a C.

Bullpen- I would have given this group the highest grade before the Nats series but it is hard to not be worried after Megill, Zerpa, Uribe, and Ashby to a lesser degree struggled so recently. I am mixed because this group is so talented and deep that there is potential to be one of the top bullpens in the league but also alot to worry about. I will give them a break based on overall workload and the start of the year C- grade.

Team MVP- Turang (take out the 3-4 games around his injury and he has been specular.

Top Pitcher- Ashby, 9 OF 15 games and 12 2/3 over that period has been nuts even if he has had a couple small blips.

 

[Ignitor 4ever]

It is a long season with many ups and downs. I belive the Brewers record is the same through 15 games as it was last season. My biggest concern right now is injuries. I think if we can get Vaughan and Chourio healthy and hoping Yelich's injury is not as bad as Murphy hinted, the offense will be fine.

[owbc]

I think my stretch dream of cruising through the regular season has failed, but overall they have been pretty solid, sitting 8-7 despite a bunch of injuries and they remain ahead of the Cubs. 

I disagree somewhat with the other comments, the offense is doing great and the issue is mostly on the pitching/defense side. 

Offense: 5th in MLB in runs/game, 5th in OPS. Amazing given no Chourio, Vaughn + others with injuries. Likely to remain top-5 moving forward IMO. 

Pitching: Mediocre at best. Both starters and bullpen are around league average. The rotation is not covering enough innings, lasting 4 2/3 on average, a full inning less than the top rotations in the league. The performance of our high leverage bullpen arms is also of concern. 

Defense: not as good as expected. We need to be near the top of the league in defense for our formula to work -- we need our pitchers to overperform FIP, not underperform it. 

Projection going forward -- I'm most concerned about pitching. We're depending on a lot of 'project guys' with high ceilings to cover innings right now. We need them to improve sooner rather than later if we're going to go anywhere. 

Given how good the offense is, I still think 85-90 wins is the floor. 

[Turning2]

I feel they will turn it around eventually and at least be respectably competitive. Said previously, I felt like they were positioning themselves for post lock out and that 2026 was kind of a mail it in season. They did nothing to help the offensive power, and they brought in more young, unproven pitching. The latter will have this year to get some seasoning for post lockout ball. 

Trading off some of the best players in exchange for a handful of prospects is a gamble. Sometimes you lose that gamble. Perhaps that is catching up with them alongside the injuries.  They need more trades in a 1:1 mode - proven player for proven player. Easier said than done I realize.

[owbc]

1 hour ago, Turning2 said:

I feel they will turn it around eventually and at least be respectably competitive. Said previously, I felt like they were positioning themselves for post lock out and that 2026 was kind of a mail it season. They did nothing to help the offensive power, and they brought in a more young, unproven pitching. The latter will have this year to get some seasoning for post lockout ball. 

Trading off some of the best players in exchange for a handful of prospects is a gamble. Sometimes you lose that gamble. Perhaps that is catching up with them alongside the injuries.  They need more trades in a 1:1 mode - proven player for proven player. Easier said than done I realize.

The thing about trading known entities for unproven players is that the trade will always look bad in the short term. In the long run we'll be better off. 

Except, perhaps, in the case of Caleb Durbin. Maybe he'll wake up, but it's pretty ugly right now. 

[Outlander]

The offense has been very Jeckyl and Hyde with Vaughn/Chourio gone but having the expected loss of Yelich against RHP is going to hurt significantly. Their play against LHP thus far can't be ignored, a major weakness 1/10 of the way through.

 

[Turning2]

3 hours ago, owbc said:

The thing about trading known entities for unproven players is that the trade will always look bad in the short term. In the long run we'll be better off. 
 

True, but also .... not necessarily true. The long run isn't guaranteed to pay off. It's subjective if getting 2 or 3 serviceable guys or prospects (and lots of service time years) who "might" become somebody special is worth 1 All Star (or near All Star) caliber player. Every team has serviceable guys and good prospects in their farm system. Don't need to trade for them. Just shows how overvalued the prospect hype can be sometimes. 

Early results point to Harrison as a good get from Boston, but I'd have rather they just shipped Durbin and Mona or Seigler for Duran to bolster the OF. But again, I think they are setting themselves up for after the lock out rather than 2026. 

[jay87shot]

25 minutes ago, Outlander said:

The offense has been very Jeckyl and Hyde with Vaughn/Chourio gone but having the expected loss of Yelich against RHP is going to hurt significantly. Their play against LHP thus far can't be ignored, a major weakness 1/10 of the way through.

 

Great observation, couldn't agree more.

[Jim French Stepstool]

First off, I seldom if ever have strong expectations, good or bad. Too much randomness in baseball for me to comfortably do that year to year. 

Obviously health issues are a big factor, made bigger if Yelich is out for any amount of time. And no one has been consistently hot enough with the bat to cover for that. Contreras has been OK, not red hot. Turang has been so-so, hopefully Sunday launches him into something better. Sanchez has been productive but isn't out there every day. Mitchell has been productive at tines but that's tempered by never knowing if he's going to even touch the ball. Frelick & Rengifo are people that can help pick up some slack; their career numbers prove it. But they've both been poor. 

I think the pitching will be, for the most part, fine. Part of what happened this weekend is attributable to Washington putting up a ridiculous number of smart, effective ABs at just the right time, helped along by uncharacteristically poor defense. Credit to them.

And part of the issue is the farm. You have people in AA who are performing but most likely aren't 'there' yet, and the ones theoretically closer (Williams, Pratt) aren't hitting right now. Lara is as hot as can be but after only 13 games at the AAA level & age 21 it would take quite a leap of faith to call on him.

I feel OK about their ability to weather the storm until they get healthier IF hitters reach their norm & we get back to the 'woodpecker' mentality, and pitch & field at a level we're more accustomed to.

[BruisedCrew]

With Yelich now reportedly out for about a month, I am even more getting the feeling that this is going to be one of those years. The Brewers haven’t had one for quite awhile, so maybe they’re due  

The injuries are exposing how weak the depth is, both in the lineup and the starting rotation. 

Four more weeks of lineups with Regnifo second and Lockridge 6th is going to be hard to watch. And the way things are going there will be more injuries before Chourio, Vaughn, and Yelich get back and shake the rust off. 

[BruisedCrew]

6 hours ago, owbc said:

I think my stretch dream of cruising through the regular season has failed, but overall they have been pretty solid, sitting 8-7 despite a bunch of injuries and they remain ahead of the Cubs. 

I disagree somewhat with the other comments, the offense is doing great and the issue is mostly on the pitching/defense side. 

Offense: 5th in MLB in runs/game, 5th in OPS. Amazing given no Chourio, Vaughn + others with injuries. Likely to remain top-5 moving forward IMO. 

Pitching: Mediocre at best. Both starters and bullpen are around league average. The rotation is not covering enough innings, lasting 4 2/3 on average, a full inning less than the top rotations in the league. The performance of our high leverage bullpen arms is also of concern. 

Defense: not as good as expected. We need to be near the top of the league in defense for our formula to work -- we need our pitchers to overperform FIP, not underperform it. 

Projection going forward -- I'm most concerned about pitching. We're depending on a lot of 'project guys' with high ceilings to cover innings right now. We need them to improve sooner rather than later if we're going to go anywhere. 

Given how good the offense is, I still think 85-90 wins is the floor. 

You’re letting yourself be misled by the outsized impact of the high scoring games., especially in the White Sox series. 

A really good offense does not have as many games scoring 0-2 runs as the Brewers have, especially in the last week. 

Hopefully the injured players can come back and revive the offense, but that looks to be at least a month away once you throw in rehab assignments. 
 

 

[BruisedCrew]

7 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

 

It's also very possible that the Nats are just that much better than they were a year ago, and the Brewers got sucker-punched while they were already feeling weak.

The Nats had lost 7 of 8 coming into the weekend, and their biggest problem has been pitching. The Brewers getting shut down by them on Friday and Saturday, and scoring only on HRs for the whole weekend, says a lot about the sorry state of the offense.

Those scrappy Nats are losing15-1 to the Pirates tonight. 

[Playing Catch]

13 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Those scrappy Nats are losing15-1 to the Pirates tonight. 

Sure. The Nats may still suck. Or maybe Skenes held them to one run over 6. The Nats scored 4 on the bullpen after his departure*. But results --- good or bad ---- and most stats at this point in the season are still pretty unreliable as an indication of how good/bad the teams are, particularly with pitching, as one bad start or one blown save can really mess with the numbers.

So, if I'm using my own limited eye-test, I'm mostly concerned about two things. The health/depth of the 'pen, and the focus of the position-player group, who I think have let an inexperienced staff down at times with inconsistency. Contreras and Sanchez have certainly done their part at the plate and behind the plate, fulfilling their roles with aplomb. But I've been disappointed with some of the details with the rest of the group. Sometimes they make incredible plays, and take really impressive ABs, and then other times they've been sleepwalking or pressing.

* (probably not the thread to go on and on about other teams), but based on my subjective, and I'm sure flawed eye-test, the Nats position-player group is much improved from a year ago. You could see hustle and effort and team-focused approaches. Maybe Butera is special?? I don't think I would have hired a 33-year old, sheesh. And on a related note, I thought all of the opposition, to date, have played pretty good baseball. Clean baseball. Hustle baseball. it's probably the worst time of the year to play young teams with no playoff expectations in the White Sox, Rays, and Nationals.

[owbc]

16 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

You’re letting yourself be misled by the outsized impact of the high scoring games., especially in the White Sox series. 

A really good offense does not have as many games scoring 0-2 runs as the Brewers have, especially in the last week. 

Hopefully the injured players can come back and revive the offense, but that looks to be at least a month away once you throw in rehab assignments. 
 

 

We scored 3 or less runs in 5/15 games. 

The #1 offense in MLB, the Dodgers, has scored 3 or less runs in 5/16 games. 

The definition of a boom/bust offense is the #3 ranked Houston Astros. They have scored 2 or less runs in 6/17 games and 6 or more in 10 of the other 11 games they have played. 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

We scored 3 or less runs in 5/15 games. 

The #1 offense in MLB, the Dodgers, has scored 3 or less runs in 5/16 games. 

The definition of a boom/bust offense is the #3 ranked Houston Astros. They have scored 2 or less runs in 6/17 games and 6 or more in 10 of the other 11 games they have played. 

As a point of fact, the Brewers have scored 3 or less in 6 games (and 2 or less in 5 games) and 4 of those games of 3 or less are in the last 5 games. They scored 29 of their 80 runs in the opening series against the White Sox. That Sox series is looking more like an outlier. 

I disagree with your opinion that the Brewers offense is doing great. Losing Yelich (who was a significant contributor) for an extended period is going to create more challenges. 

I will be really surprised if the Brewers are still 5th in R/G a month from now. 

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Sure. The Nats may still suck. Or maybe Skenes held them to one run over 6. The Nats scored 4 on the bullpen after his departure*. But results --- good or bad ---- and most stats at this point in the season are still pretty unreliable as an indication of how good/bad the teams are, particularly with pitching, as one bad start or one blown save can really mess with the numbers.

So, if I'm using my own limited eye-test, I'm mostly concerned about two things. The health/depth of the 'pen, and the focus of the position-player group, who I think have let an inexperienced staff down at times with inconsistency. Contreras and Sanchez have certainly done their part at the plate and behind the plate, fulfilling their roles with aplomb. But I've been disappointed with some of the details with the rest of the group. Sometimes they make incredible plays, and take really impressive ABs, and then other times they've been sleepwalking or pressing.

* (probably not the thread to go on and on about other teams), but based on my subjective, and I'm sure flawed eye-test, the Nats position-player group is much improved from a year ago. You could see hustle and effort and team-focused approaches. Maybe Butera is special?? I don't think I would have hired a 33-year old, sheesh. And on a related note, I thought all of the opposition, to date, have played pretty good baseball. Clean baseball. Hustle baseball. it's probably the worst time of the year to play young teams with no playoff expectations in the White Sox, Rays, and Nationals.

While the Nats position group may be improved, their pitching is dead last in MLB in runs allowed per game. 

Bad pitching is the main reason why they have lost 8 of their last 9 games against teams not wearing WISCO jerseys.

The Brewers scoring only 10 runs in 3 games, all of which were the result of HRs, against those pitchers should be seen as a warning sign of a weak offense. 

[jay87shot]

18 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

With Yelich now reportedly out for about a month, I am even more getting the feeling that this is going to be one of those years. The Brewers haven’t had one for quite awhile, so maybe they’re due  

The injuries are exposing how weak the depth is, both in the lineup and the starting rotation. 

Four more weeks of lineups with Regnifo second and Lockridge 6th is going to be hard to watch. And the way things are going there will be more injuries before Chourio, Vaughn, and Yelich get back and shake the rust off. 

I wouldn't say the depth is weak, take the 2,3, 5 hitter out of any lineup other than maybe LA and that teams lineup looks pretty weak. The rotation depth isn't really the issue it is that we can't get through 5 innings, I think the depth is fine it just is that all of our guys are young or injury prone and Murph is the type of manager who pulls a guy at 80 pitches with 1 out and 2 on in the 5th. I don't mind that strategy a bit early on but eventually those starters need to get out of innings on their own. 

I agree the lineup is going to look horrendous for a couple weeks at least. If I was managing I would probably be risky and put Sal 1 despite the slow start and move Turang to 3 in an attempt to fortify the middle of the order.

1) Sal 2) Contreras 3)Brice 4)Sanchez (DH) 5)Mitchell 6)Bauers 7) Lockridge/Perk/Jones 8)Hamilton/Rengifo 9)Joey

[Jim French Stepstool]

12 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I wouldn't say the depth is weak, take the 2,3, 5 hitter out of any lineup other than maybe LA and that teams lineup looks pretty weak. The rotation depth isn't really the issue it is that we can't get through 5 innings, I think the depth is fine it just is that all of our guys are young or injury prone and Murph is the type of manager who pulls a guy at 80 pitches with 1 out and 2 on in the 5th. I don't mind that strategy a bit early on but eventually those starters need to get out of innings on their own. 

I agree the lineup is going to look horrendous for a couple weeks at least. If I was managing I would probably be risky and put Sal 1 despite the slow start and move Turang to 3 in an attempt to fortify the middle of the order.

1) Sal 2) Contreras 3)Brice 4)Sanchez (DH) 5)Mitchell 6)Bauers 7) Lockridge/Perk/Jones 8)Hamilton/Rengifo 9)Joey

Yeah all things considered their depth is OK, but not OK enough to lose the hitters they've lost & not be affected. A team like the Dodgers can lose their 2, 3, & 5 hitters, move up the people normally hitting 5, 7, & 8 and still look like most teams (or better) in the interim.

Wherever he's placed in the order, Frelick needs to figure things out. And I'll maintain Rengifo has more in him than he's given so far. A big problem is going to be when a LHP appears late & you have Bauers, Hamilton & Mitchell looming. If Sanchez sees a lot of time at DH that eliminates an option.

[AKCheesehead]

On this date last year, the Brewers fell to 8-9.  They started Tyler Alexander who gave way to Elvin Rodriguez.  Other major Milwaukee stars who started that day were the always potent Isaac Collins and his .573OPS at DH.  The two headed monster of Vinny Capra and Ollie Dunn handled 3b duties. Rhys Hoskins and his potent reliable bat at 1b.  

And yet the Brewers managed to squeak out an above .500 season, somehow.  Probably just got lucky, who knows.

[owbc]

1 hour ago, AKCheesehead said:

On this date last year, the Brewers fell to 8-9.  They started Tyler Alexander who gave way to Elvin Rodriguez.  Other major Milwaukee stars who started that day were the always potent Isaac Collins and his .573OPS at DH.  The two headed monster of Vinny Capra and Ollie Dunn handled 3b duties. Rhys Hoskins and his potent reliable bat at 1b.  

And yet the Brewers managed to squeak out an above .500 season, somehow.  Probably just got lucky, who knows.

Yep, they were 25-28 last year and 6.5 games out of first. 

It's not great to be staring down a similar first 1-2 months in 2026, but management will be on their way to another set of trophies if they can right the ship again.