What Can the Milwaukee Brewers Expect From Luis Lara?

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There are two things this should be prefaced with. One is that a lot of information on Luis Lara (and other top prospects) can be gleaned from listening to Spencer Michaelis wax lyrical each week on the Brewer Fanatic pod. Secondly, a massive congratulations to the young man for securing his future and defying a lot of stereotypes around his size and player archetype. Now, let's ask: why did the Brewers do this, and what future do they envision for him?

Luis Lara is a phenomenal defender. Otherworldly. I'm not saying he's Pete Crow-Armstrong, because Crow-Armstrong is the greatest range monster we've seen in the outfield for a very long time, and possibly ever. That being said, Lara is close to that level of outfield coverage, combining exceptional jumps and reads with speed and great hands to flag down fly balls and line drives. This catch, in particular, shouldn't be marred simply because there's a position player on the mound:

He currently holds a Minor League Gold Glove for his outfield prowess from last season, and there aren't really any faults. His arm strength has really improved over the past few years. He recorded 10 outfield assists in 2025 with the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers, and has three so far this season with Nashville. In short (a word Lara has been tagged with many times in his young career), this is the kind of defense the Brewers crave in their outfield mix, especially with the fly ball configuration of their pitching staff this season.

The other facet of his game in which Lara has greatly excelled is his control of the strike zone—especially his contact rates. Lara has come a long way with his chase rates, which used to be a weakness, and is now above-average in that category, with some of the best bat-to-ball skills in Triple A. TJStats has a nice graphic showing his percentiles this season with the bat:

He's a patient hitter who's walked more than he's struck out. He's consistently put the ball in play and has started pulling the ball in the air. All of those are really positive things, and perhaps the biggest is the hard-hit rate, which is now in the 55th percentile. Lara is just 5-foot-7, and while he's been young for nearly every level he's passed through on his journey, the ability to impact the ball has been lacking at those stages.

This is the first season in which Lara's isolated power number (or the difference between his batting average and slugging) has been over .090 since he left the DSL. One thing we know from watching Sal Frelick and Luis Rengifo this year is that simply making contact is not enough in the big leagues. So this development is important, but it does come with a caveat:

These are Lara's splits hitting as a lefty against right-handed pitching, and vice-versa. It seems like he's been a very different hitter when facing each side of the platoon. Against righties, Lara is battling and grinding his at-bats, taking his walks and getting on base, but he's not providing much—if any—thump. Contrast that with his performance against left-handers, and there's a noticeable difference. He swings more, he's more aggressive, and he's been barrelling up baseballs regularly. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) tells the story, and it's important to pay attention to this.

What it means is that Lara's everyday opportunity might need to wait a little longer, until he can handle right-handers with a little more panache. The majority of pitchers are right-handed, and simply being patient and hoping to walk or put a weakly hit ball in play against big league-caliber command and stuff won't cut it over the long term.

Lara is, at present, an incredibly effective defensive fourth outfielder. He's also a good candidate for that role as a pinch-hitter against left-handers, something Sal Frelick can benefit from. Brandon Lockridge also fills this role well, however, and was beginning to show signs of his own adaptation prior to his calamitous collision with the concrete down the left-field line. He's due back sometime in the next few weeks, should his rehab stint go well. 

The Brewers will be hoping for big things from Lara. He's a 21-year-old playing in Triple A, and he's already shown some progress in the exit velocity department. This contract was arranged under the premise that they think more is to come, and Lara appears to be a very fast learner.

He's shown that in the first half of the season, with improving launch angles. His xwOBA has steadily ticked up this year. He'll need to keep progressing if he wants to become a regular, and like Cooper Pratt, that may mean a little more seasoning for now. If all goes according to plan, he'll be worth the wait.

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[Terry]

TJStats has his own model for xwOBA, so the numbers are quite different from what you'll see on savant.



Also Lara as LHB

Lara as RHB

[jay87shot]

I feel like he should have a floor similar to what we Sal do the past 2 years. With his speed, defense, and playe discipline I think he should be a solid bet to be a 3 WAR player yearly. If he can hit say .275 he might be a 5 WAR player. 

I was looking around at past gold glove winners and think Shane Victorino might be a good comp on what I think he will be.

[Jake McKibbin]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

I feel like he should have a floor similar to what we Sal do the past 2 years. With his speed, defense, and playe discipline I think he should be a solid bet to be a 3 WAR player yearly. If he can hit say .275 he might be a 5 WAR player. 

I was looking around at past gold glove winners and think Shane Victorino might be a good comp on what I think he will be.

Honestly his floor is higher. The defense is phenomenal, he's as competitive and comfortable as Sal with treating his body like a malleable instrument, but he's faster and better reads to boot. He's a premium CF whereas Sal is serviceable, and that's noteworthy

We've seen how quickly PCA has accumulated WAR at times even when he's not hitting. Now it's just whether Lara can find a way to surpass Sals bar and really own the outfield spot as an everyday regular 

[Matthew Trueblood]

56 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Honestly his floor is higher. The defense is phenomenal, he's as competitive and comfortable as Sal with treating his body like a malleable instrument, but he's faster and better reads to boot. He's a premium CF whereas Sal is serviceable, and that's noteworthy

We've seen how quickly PCA has accumulated WAR at times even when he's not hitting. Now it's just whether Lara can find a way to surpass Sals bar and really own the outfield spot as an everyday regular 

I do think his arm is a difference-maker in the outfield, too. We've started to see Sal be limited this year by a weak arm. I worry a bit that Lara's jumps will fade from elite to merely very good in the majors, where they hit it harder and the third deck can make things trickier and all, but yeah, he should be capable of what Sal did last year. (IMO, Sal still should be, too, so.)

[MattK]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I do think his arm is a difference-maker in the outfield, too. We've started to see Sal be limited this year by a weak arm. I worry a bit that Lara's jumps will fade from elite to merely very good in the majors, where they hit it harder and the third deck can make things trickier and all, but yeah, he should be capable of what Sal did last year. (IMO, Sal still should be, too, so.)

As much as all of these things, that age of 21 is such a big deal! 

[BrewerFan]

I think he can hit .240/.330 and be a 4-5 WAR player. 

His CF defense is... out standing.

 

As long as he doesn't try and "rob" a HR that's 40 feet over his head(or in his case, hits the yellow line on the wall in CF)... he should be good!

[Matthew Trueblood]

10 minutes ago, MattK said:

As much as all of these things, that age of 21 is such a big deal! 

Good point! If I'm honest, a piece of me discounts his age-related projection because of his size—he won't be able to improve in as many ways because of the limitations of his frame. But I have no idea whether that's backed up by data! I might be punishing him for the crime of being a much stronger version of me, physically. Hahaha.

Edited 19 hours ago by Matthew Trueblood
Forgot a phrase

[BrewerFan]

2 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Good point! If I'm honest, a piece of me discounts his age-related projection because of his size—he won't be able to improve in as many ways because of the limitations of his frame. But I have no idea whether that's backed up by data! I might be punishing him for the crime of being a much stronger version of me, physically. Hahaha.

Yeah, that is kinda one of the reasons I think Payne has so much upside. That 6'2 180LB frame that could turn into 6'2 200 and that exit velo could come further. 

 

[Turning2]

Sorry, I'm skeptical. But I'll keep an open mind. I'll be shocked if he pounds 10-15 HRs, and a minimum .265 average consistently at the big-league level. 

With that said, they need to get him up now and see if he can outperform Perkins at least. I am curious to see what he can do at the top level. Have watched some of his minor league ABs the past couple years, and wasn't overly impressed compared to the hype. But I'm willing to give him his shot to prove he has and can continue to improve. 

[Terry]

Frelick' career numbers against RHP in MLB:
0.299 xwOBA, 84.8 EV, 25.3 HH%, 2.6 Barrel%, 31.6 LA-SwSp%, 102wRC+

Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I totally think Lara has the ability to match that production from left side, and comfortably beats Frelick's numbers against LHP.

[ChapelHeel66]

I think a realistic ceiling is .264/.358/.410 (15 HR/20 SB), the floor is about where Frelick is now, and the most likely scenario is .242/.331/.353, which is a good enough OBP to lead off these days, with speed and defense.  Almost certainly an everyday player, especially for us.

The problem at the moment is we only have about 250 PAs of this "new" Lara with increased power and a much better K rate compared to about 1100 PAs of almost no power and very high K rate.  The "old" Lara was fringey at best.  However, both of the HR/PA and K/PA stabilize pretty quickly, at least in the majors.  He ought to get some chances this year because he certainly is not blocked by Lockridge/Matos/Jones/Perkins, or by Mitchell and Frelick against lefties.

I'm reserving judgment on branding him a gold glove caliber CF, because Chourio's outfield defense grades in the minors were about the same, and he was projected for CF.  While Chourio is certainly a pretty good corner outfielder defensively, he has never looked comfortable in CF in the majors for whatever reason.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, ChapelHeel66 said:

I think a realistic ceiling is .264/.358/.410 (15 HR/20 SB), the floor is about where Frelick is now, and the most likely scenario is .242/.331/.353, which is a good enough OBP to lead off these days, with speed and defense.  Almost certainly an everyday player, especially for us.

The problem at the moment is we only have about 250 PAs of this "new" Lara with increased power and a much better K rate compared to about 1100 PAs of almost no power and very high K rate.  The "old" Lara was fringey at best.  However, both of the HR/PA and K/PA stabilize pretty quickly, at least in the majors.  He ought to get some chances this year because he certainly is not blocked by Lockridge/Matos/Jones/Perkins, or by Mitchell and Frelick against lefties.

I'm reserving judgment on branding him a gold glove caliber CF, because Chourio's outfield defense grades in the minors were about the same, and he was projected for CF.  While Chourio is certainly a pretty good corner outfielder defensively, he has never looked comfortable in CF in the majors for whatever reason.  

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[Turning2]

1 hour ago, ChapelHeel66 said:

The problem at the moment is we only have about 250 PAs of this "new" Lara with increased power and a much better K rate compared to about 1100 PAs of almost no power and very high K rate.  The "old" Lara was fringey at best.  .

 

And that, along with the size, is why I'm skeptical. He might just be having a career minor league year. But that's what we're faced with. Small markets can't buy proven talent, so fans get impatient with prospects who ae succeeding, and want guys rushed to the bigs. I think most guys should spend a full year at AAA unless their offensive numbers are eye popping. There are always exceptions though. 

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, ChapelHeel66 said:

compared to about 1100 PAs of almost no power and very high K rate.  The "old" Lara was fringey at best. 

The "old" Lara was extremely young.

When he put up a 110 wRC+ at Age 18 between the Carolina and Midwest Leagues he did so against pitchers three to five years older than him on average.

When he put up a 94 wRC+ at Age 19 in the Midwest League he did so against pitchers four years older than him on average.

When he put up a 116 wRC+ at Age 20 in the Southern League he did so against pitchers four to five years older than him on average.

Lara had a 15.8 K% those three years. Average K% for the leagues he played in were 2023 Carolina League (25.3%), 2023-24 Midwest League (23.6%), and 2025 Southern League (23.5%) so his K rate was lower than league average all the way up the ladder.