Our Annual Preview - Which Brewers Farmhands Qualify for the Rule 5 Draft or Minor League Free Agency?

[Jim Goulart]

You'll find the complete list of qualifying names within this article. Plus, this year, an imminent MLB lockout could impact Matt Arnold's Rule 5 roster decisions. We'll explain.

Let's kick things off with this Rule 5 primer reminder:

What is the Rule 5 Draft? (via MLB.com)

• "A draft that allows clubs that do not have a full 40-man roster to select certain non-40-man players from other organizations. Essentially, it is an avenue for teams to identify and give a Major League opportunity to players that they feel have been held back elsewhere. Players signed at age 18 or younger must be added to their club’s 40-man roster within five seasons or else become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Players signed at 19 or older must be protected within four seasons."

Essentially, as it relates to this year's roster decisions, high school players from the 2022 draft would need to be protected should Matt Arnold and his fellow "Ivory Tower" collaborators so choose. That's why Jett Williams (Mets draft pick), Luke Adams and Dylan O'Rae are up for consideration for the first time, as are college selections from the 2023 draft, such as Tate Kuehner, Brock Wilken, Mike Boeve and Brett Wichrowski, among others.

The Brewers already have several players on their 40-man roster who would have been first-year eligible this fall - Luis Lara, Brandon Sproat and Craig Yoho. Then there's Cooper Pratt, who would not have been Rule 5 eligible until fall 2027.

Given all that and based on player performances across the board to be evaluated, there does not appear to be a true roster crunch facing the Crew's braintrust. Regular followers of MLB Trade Rumors might remember that every November it seemed as though an astute franchise like the Tampa Bay Rays would be forced to trade some of their Rule 5 eligible prospects for those a bit younger, simply because they faced a roster glut. That doesn't appear to be the case in 2026 for the Brewers, 

Despite middling numbers year-to-date, it'd be a surprise if Jett Williams were not added to the big-league active roster at some point this regular season. If he is not, then he's a lock for a Rule 5 add (barring any trade activity involving him, of course). So, it's several of the names listed below under the most scrutiny and consideration - Kuehner, Adams, Wilken, mix in intriguing pop-up candidates like fireballing Cameron Wagoner. 

But wait, there's a monkey wrench! When the 2021 lockout finally ended in March 2022, the owners and players agreed that no Rule 5 draft would take place. Is it likely that a similar situation occurs in the upcoming cycle? If an organization wants to hedge its bets on players who are fringe decisions - those who would be nice to protect but aren't slam-dunk choices - that would be a way to protect precious 40-man roster spots. Plus, it allows for another full season of player evaluation. The 2021 cancelled Rule 5 led to having a lot more first time-eligibles to consider for December 2022, but the Brewers navigated that potential glut just fine.

Please weigh in and interact with your fellow diehard prospect followers/huggers by commenting in this thread, which will be pinned to the top of our Minor League Forum all year. We'd love to hear from you! This initial post (the main article) will also be edited as the months pass whenever an eligible player is added to or departs from the Milwaukee organization for any reason.

Be sure to read through to the second half of this article where we list the players currently set to be eligible for minor league free agency in October.

 

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Rule 5 Eligible Players (44) -

* = First Time as Rule 5 Eligible

Nashville:

• 1B/3B Luke Adams*
• RHP Kaleb Bowman*
• RHP Will Childers
• RHP Blake Holub
• LHP Tate Kuehner*
• LHP Mark Manfredi, Sr.*
• C Eric Martinez
• INF Ethan Murray
• RHP Brett Wichrowski*
• 1B/3B Brock Wilken*
• INF/OF Jett Williams*

Biloxi:

• RHP Patricio Aquino
• RHP Ryan Birchard*
• INF/OF Mike Boeve*
• LHP Jesus Broca*
• INF/OF Eric Brown, Jr.
• OF Mark Coley II
• RHP Chase Costello*
• LHP Anthony Flores*
• RHP Yorman Galindez*
• RHP Edwin Jimenez
• OF Damon Keith
• RHP Nick Merkel
• 2B/OF Dylan O'Rae*
• C Edgardo Ordonez
• RHP Manuel Rodriguez*
• LHP Russell Smith
• RHP Cameron Wagoner
• C Matthew Wood

Wisconsin:

• INF Juan Baez*
• OF Luis Castillo
• RHP Daniel Corniel*
• INF/OF Daniel Guilarte
• 1B/OF Tayden Hall
• RHP Quinton Low
• RHP Bryan Rivera*
• RHP Will Rudy
• LHP Wande Torres*
• RHP Jason Woodward

Wilson:

• LHP Jose Meneses*
• LHP Anfernny Reyes
• RHP Josh Timmerman*

Maryvale:

• RHP Cesar Espinal*
• RHP Cole Phillips

 

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There are two aspects regarding this next list of names (minor league free agents to be). Last year, RHP Coleman Crow was on this list, and it was quite clear that the Brewers were not about to let him reach free agency, and the one way they could prevent that for sure was to add Crow to the 40-man roster in October, which they clearly did. Upon review below, there does not seem to be a glaring candidate for a similar tact. That's the first aspect.

The other aspect is that the Brewers will always be up for bringing back a player they like under a newly negotiated minor league deal, and players are often amenable to this. Just last fall, several players who you see listed below were enticed to return, among them Garrett Stallings, J.B. Bukauskas, Eduardo Garcia, Ramon Rodriguez and Darrien Miller.

One miscellaneous note - Biloxi RHP Edwin Jimenez (he'll turn 25 in December) is signed through 2027 already, as part of his own re-up last fall, since he signed a two-year deal at that time. He appears on the Rule 5 list but not the list below.

Minor League Free Agents to Be (23) -

Nashville:

• RHP J.B. Bukauskas
• RHP Junior Fernandez
• RHP Gerson Garabito
• INF/OF Eduardo Garcia
• OF Greg Jones
• RHP Reiss Knehr
• INF/OF Eddys Leonard
• OF Luis Matos
• LHP Thomas Pannone
• RHP Lyon Richardson
• C Ramon Rodriguez
• RHP Garrett Stallings
• RHP Jake Woodford
• INF Freddy Zamora

Biloxi:

• OF Dasan Brown
• RHP Stiven Cruz
• OF Jacob Hurtubise
• C Darrien Miller
• UT Jheremy Vargas

Wisconsin:

• C Blayberg Diaz
• C David Garcia
• C Andrick Nava
• RHP Yerlin Rodriguez

Thanks for following along as we document things for you in the coming months.

 

[jay87shot]

Jett and Luke Adams seem like Givens to me. Childers and Holub are probably at this point, I would rather have them over like McGee next year. Kuehner, Manfredi, and Wichrowski are maybes depending on how the season goes. I would add Cam Wagoner who has been on off the most impressive relievers of the season but he might need some AAA time. A lot will depend on how many roster spots there are. O'Rae and Wood could also play there way into a roster spots if given some AAA time this year.

[biedergb]

Adams and Jett if not traded are givens. And I agree with @jay87shot That Holub, Childers and Wagoner are possibles. O’Rae is a wild card, and I can foresee him, Wilken, Boeve in a trade package, as the team can’t add too many.

I also think after the rule V draft, there may be a long term deal with another prospect or two (like Made, Fischer possibly). So spots will need to be available then too.

But I see several players as potential trade options for teams needing prospects and give those players (Wilken for example) a fresh start elsewhere.  

[long ball]

I agree with you guys. Adams and Jett feel like locks to be added to the 40 man. And who knows, some of these pitchers may get forced into major league duty yet this season. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Adams & Jett Williams, like many of you already mentioned.

I don't know if he'd get pilfered or not, but I'd be a little antsy about leaving Wagoner unprotected. If he continues to shine there are a few other pitchers on the 'maybe' list that I'd put him ahead of.

He's a man without a position right now but I've always liked Boeve as a hitter. However I don't think he'd be grabbed by anyone at this point so that's almost certainly one where you roll the dice (assuming he isn't part of a trade).

O'Rae's a tough call for me. Love the kid; he's sort of a poor man's Travis Bazzana. At the end of the day he's probably another one you leave open & cross your fingers, but he'd be more likely to get snatched than Boeve. I agree with @biedergb, these two & Wilken should certainly have their names brought up in the weeks to come when the phones heat up.

[wiguy94]

At this point I see trade candidates and not really anyone I feel really needs to be kept around and added to the 40

[igor67]

I suspect the Brewers will decrease the list a bit with some form of deal. Wilken and O-Rae strike me as prospects I'd like to deal as players who may have a lot more value in different organizations at this point. But Williams and Adams seem like definite adds to me.

[Fire Manfred]

Jett Williams is the only lock I see.  I would put Luke Adams at about 80%.  Matt Childers, Brock Wilken, Dylan O'Rea, and Brett Wichrowski as maybe-50% or less.

 

Stiven Cruz is the only maybe I see from the MiLB free agents to be list.  He probably should be bumped to AAA here to see if his stuff plays. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

It will be interesting to see the organization’s pecking order (if they choose to protect any) among the AAA pitchers. If they think Kuehner’s stuff plays up in relief, I could see him over Holub, Childers or Manfredi. Also, while I am not predicting this, if the control suddenly clicks into place for Birchard, he becomes an interesting dilemma as well.

[SF70]

Want so badly to see Williams & Adams in a package for a HL reliever or starting pitcher. Realistically, neither has a future with MKE, imo, but should have nice surplus trade-value.

[wallus]

Adams is getting ridiculously underrated here

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, wallus said:

Adams is getting ridiculously underrated here

For me it's RHH 1B only profile with average to slightly above average raw power and extreme passiveness at the plate. It's also a profile that has relied heavily on HBP through the minors with a BA topping out at .233 in full season ball all the way in A ball. If the HBP dry up against MLB pitching, I don't think the bat is good enough to survive as a 1B.

[wallus]

4 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

For me it's RHH 1B only profile with average to slightly above average raw power and extreme passiveness at the plate. It's also a profile that has relied heavily on HBP through the minors with a BA topping out at .233 in full season ball all the way in A ball. If the HBP dry up against MLB pitching, I don't think the bat is good enough to survive as a 1B.

Young player at every level that continues to produce. People shout about age in the minor leagues but Adams seems to not get that consideration.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, wallus said:

Young player at every level that continues to produce. People shout about age in the minor leagues but Adams seems to not get that consideration.

I think age does matter but with Adams I'm not really sure it matters as much. He's already pretty maxed out physically so I don't think you can project more bat speed or raw power and he doesn't have any glaring holes in his game that you could project might improve as he gets older. I think he mostly just is what he is and what he always has been in the minor leagues and that's a RHH 1B with a low BA and high OBP that is very reliant on HBP to boost up.

[Tedaldtada]

If he survives the trade deadline, I cannot foresee a world where Adams isn’t put in the 40-man. With Vaughn and Bauers both heading towards $10M+ per year contracts, I bet the Brewers need him starting next year. Plus, he’s one of the first test cases for the Brewers much ballyhooed draft strategy. And although he is tapped out physically in some ways, he still needs to mature into his optimal power. 

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, Tedaldtada said:

If he survives the trade deadline, I cannot foresee a world where Adams isn’t put in the 40-man. With Vaughn and Bauers both heading towards $10M+ per year contracts, I bet the Brewers need him starting next year. Plus, he’s one of the first test cases for the Brewers much ballyhooed draft strategy. And although he is tapped out physically in some ways, he still needs to mature into his optimal power. 

I think Vaughn is pretty likely to be back next year in his final year of arb.

[SF70]

Agree the Brewers arby Vaughn next season as their full-time 1B.

Then they have Burke & Fischer behind Vaughn. No way Adams is a better prospect than those two. 

I would argue Adams has the most trade-value from among the blocked prospects. Between him and Jett, which is why I listed them together in a trade-package the team could use to acquire a player that improves the team at this year’s trade-deadline or next offseason.

[Lathund]

8 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I think Vaughn is pretty likely to be back next year in his final year of arb.

Probably is. But it's not as much of a certain thing as it might appear, depends on what they expect from him vs RHP. His success this year is almost entirely against LHP, and if they don't think he can get it done against righties, they might not want to pay $10-12m for a short-side platoon 1B only. But more than that I think it comes down to what else they have at 1B. If they feel like they have a better full-time option, Vaughn would be a good trade candidate, could get something pretty good for him. If they don't re-sign Bauers and they don't feel good about Black/Adams/Burke stepping in, then Vaughn on a one year deal even with mediocre results against RHP makes sense. 

Anyway back to the topic: Adams, Williams, and maybe a reliever or two, if they have some standout stuff/pitches. The likely lockout (I don't think it'll affect the season much, or at all, but definitely the offseason) with perhaps no rule 5 draft, probably means they'll lean towards not protecting many of the fringe guys.  

[Lathund]

Also speaking of the rule 5 draft, reminded me of the constant harping on about Shane Smith last year. First it was the same few posters bumping the thread over and over after each good start. Talking about what a terrible mistake it was by the front office, and ridiculing anyone who didn't agree. Then he started struggling in the second half, and then it was different posters bumping it after every bad start instead. 

It really got quite ridiculous, not protecting him was an "unforgivable mistake" and something Matt Arnold should get fired over. People who didn't agree that it was a terrible mistake were ridiculed, as if they couldn't see the objective truth, or that they were arguing in bad faith. Really brought out some of the worst posting (and posters) on here. 

[BrewCrew8675309]

Jett is the only lock.   

In the past many fans' picks are simply passed over completely by the Brewers and every other team and re-signed back into the system.     

Stiven Cruz and Cameron Wagoner could be White Sox or Marlins so they need to be pushed to see if this year's stats are real. Maybe Kuehner as he's a lefty so someone could take a Conner Thomas-like flyer on him but who knows.

I will be very happy to see Adams, Boeve, and Wilken re-sign and see if they can fight off Burke, Fischer, and any 2026 draftee. If Tyler Black has no trade value then why would Wilken?

[Jim Goulart]

29 minutes ago, Lathund said:

People who didn't agree that it was a terrible mistake were ridiculed, as if they couldn't see the objective truth, or that they were arguing in bad faith. Really brought out some of the worst posting (and posters) on here. 

Remember it as you wish. We have forum moderators here for a reason, and while there were conflicting opinions (I was certainly a fan of Smith's, among other folks), the polarizing viewpoints from both sides of the aisle, so to speak, led to awkward moments, will agree on that.

[Jim Goulart]

32 minutes ago, BrewCrew8675309 said:

I will be very happy to see Adams, Boeve, and Wilken re-sign and see if they can fight off Burke, Fischer, and any 2026 draftee.

No need for them to "re-sign" (no decision to be made by the players), the Brewers maintain their rights regardless for several seasons.

[Lathund]

23 minutes ago, Jim Goulart said:

Remember it as you wish. 

Of course that wasn't the entirety of the thread, but that did happen. I went back and read through it just to make sure, so it's not me making things up as you suggest. 

And FWIW, it wasn't your posts I was referring to. 

[wiguy94]

19 hours ago, wallus said:

Young player at every level that continues to produce. People shout about age in the minor leagues but Adams seems to not get that consideration.

Well Luke Adams sure showed me with his performance today lol

[Tedaldtada]

The Brewers are not going to allow a guy like Luke Adams to get plucked from their vine for nothing by another organization just as he is ripening.